The How and The Why
In a stunning development, much to the surprise of The Shill, The Coug and LIESman, today's job report was "weaker than expected". Surprisingly, the only mouthpiece that came close to predicting the actual number was former O'Bomney hack, Austin Goonsby. What does that tell you?
So here's the deal. Though I firmly believe that political pressure sways the calculative ability of those within the BLS, it's also possible that, because we are truly in a new paradigm, the current BLS methodology is simply outdated.
From 1982 to 2007, the U.S. economy was measured as expanding. Those who didn't have jobs often found jobs. Those who still couldn't find jobs, applied for unemployment "insurance". This transfer payment program provided some welfare to those in need of it until they could secure employment and, since the economy was "growing", most found work before the government checks ran out. And that's the key...the program has an expiration date for those on the dole.
The current expiration date is 99 weeks. This means that anyone receiving unemployment insurance will only receive checks for about 2 years before the government cuts them off. Now, as this pertains to today's jobs number is important. You see the BLS counts those receiving checks as part of the unemployed base. As part of the calculation, when someone stops receiving checks, they are no longer considered to be unemployed. For the 25-year period of 1982-2007, this was an OK way to do things as it was statistically correct to assume that someone no longer collecting unemployment insurance had now found a job. Now, however, that's not the case.
Instead, many folks are "long-term unemployed". They lost their job and applied for unemployment insurance and, after 99 weeks, the checks stopped coming. These folks are now considered by the BLS to have found a job but have they? Maybe a few have but just because the checks ran out does not mean that you are no longer unemployed. However, to the BLS, this is exactly what it means. So, payrolls can only increase by 115,000 and the labor force participation rate can fall to 64.3% but the stated "rate of unemployment" can also fall to 8.1%. TA-DAH!!! Barack The Magnificent can again proclaim at today's press appearance that the economy is strong and he should be re-elected.
More details can be found by reading these excellent, brief summations from ZH:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/real-u-3-unemployment-rate-116
Again, many of the people not in the measured "labor force" have simply given up. Their unemployment checks have run out and the BLS simply ignores them and fails to count them as if they don't exist at all. And this is how things work in the good ole U.S.A.
Ignoring and manipulating facts and data is also how things work in the gold and silver markets. Look, here's the deal. Everything...and I mean everything...points to a bottom here that will lead to a very strong rebound, particularly in silver. But it's a little like the BLSBS. Post-MFG, we may be in all new paradigm where the only entities left trading paper metal are Cartel Monkeys and HFT WOPRs. Under those conditions, it's going to be very difficult for the metals to surge without some type of "flipping" event which causes the algos to by tilted positively instead of negatively. A sustained short squeeze that drives price back through the 200-day MA would do the trick but can we get that to happen absent news of impending QE? More importantly, will The Gold Cartel allow that to happen absent the imminent appearance of overt QE3 or a Cartel switch to net long?
So, just as every traditional indicator I follow screams BUY right here, in this post-MFG world we have to remain cautious. Not so much cautious from a risk perspective, just cautious from a timing and frustration perspective.
Hang in there. Let this nonsense play out. The American economy is moribund. Europe is an economic disaster. Global demand for physical precious metal is only going to increase. Do not let the minute-by-minute, hour-by-hour shenanigans of the Comex scare you. Your silver and gold will have a higher fiat-conversion price 6 months from now. They will have a higher fiat-conversion price 12 months from now. And, if there are still traditional fiat to which you can convert 24 months from now, the price of gold and silver will be higher still.
OK, that's all for now. As I've typed, I see that we've begun to squeeze the smarty-pant shorts a bit. This is encouraging. In gold, a move abive 1650 will intensify the pressure. Silver needs to crawl back above $31 before anything other than weak hands begin to get squeezed. Keep your fingers crossed and look for a new thread after I've had an opportunity to review what should be a very interesting CoT later this afternoon.
TF
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Comments
Two things
This extended time in the upper 20's/low to mid 30's in silver reminds me of how I felt during the teens. I wondered if it would stay there forever. We know how that turned out. Now we feel the same way at double the price. I remember I used to say I would sell some at $25!!! Something to keep in mind.
Regarding unemployment... I'm another self employed Turdite and totally invisible to all these "official" statistics. I could be totally out of work, homeless and be neither "under" nor "unemployed." But knowing that I live or die by the sweat of my brow is sacred to me. It is one of the greatest freedoms one can have and makes me more proud of the work that I do. The government can take their entitled safety nets and shove it; I'm just fine on my own.
Gold Silver Ratio
Hi all, I am hoping somebody might have the answer to this question.
The Gold-Silver ratio has been 53.x for much of today; 51 had seemed to be a steady level for many months but we have been creeping up.
I know that I am not the only one who keeps an eye on that, and I trade it, so it is interesting when it moves.
My question is (and i hope that this will be one in the eye for those who disparage silver, but mebbee it will be one in the eye for me), is about the correlation between gold and silver, what with silver being purely an industrial metal and all, etc etc blah blah.
Even when the GSR ratio changes, the two metals still seem to follow the same pattern, even if at a different level. I am betting that the correlation between gold and silver can be shown to be strong, compared to say silver:copper, since silver and copper are both deemed to be industrial metals.
So, the correlation that I am interested in, is not how consistent the GSR level is through time (because it does bounce around), but the directional synchronicity between gold & silver. I am hoping that if we had that data, that silver's behaviour can be shown to be categorically tied to that of gold, and less so to that of the industrial metals sector, which is the official spiel.
cheers
B.
Re: Abraxas - TA Does work, and quite well sometimes!
Abraxas, I read your comments about TA with a bit of a wicked smile on my lips. It can - and does - work. My own definition of TA would really shift the entire focus over to BA - behavioral analysis. Whether or not folks agree with me, I've always found TA to be a method of trending investor behaviors, and it can be used to identify and perhaps pinpoint the most opportune times to enter or divest a stock or option. I happen to agree with Turd's comments that we are at or near a bottom, so I went in for another 100 oz's of silver in the form of a few 1 kilo 2011 Libertads (it helps if your bullion is also nice to look at as well, and I always chuckle when I feel like I'm holding my own version of a TITS concept in my hands).
I'm no expert on the metals, but I do rely on TA heavily to determine my buy point and it has served me extremely well. It's just not as reliable as buying typical segment stocks, say like McDonalds, or Dow, or Ford due to the relentless "senseless" moves in the metals markets. Actually, I've found TA to be much more effective on small cap stocks in terms of predicting near future price movement.
If anyone is looking for a great intro to TA concepts, I highly recommend Dan Fitzpatrick's site, www.stockmarketmentor.com. He has free videos a few times a week where he'll focus in on a particular stock and run through his own style of a TA presentation. I've subscribed to his services in the past and did reasonably well, but it was like a mini college education on in technical trading. It will give you great insight into some of the things TF and others on this site are talking about.
That's why I value seeing Turd's TA posts so much. I also like seeing other folks doing the same thing here on the miners. I've had a tough time understanding how TA applies directly to PMs, but I must admit I am still learning. So far, so good - multiple buys of physical right at the low points over the past few months.
I will start posting my own TA work on a few of the miners as soon as I have a little time. I spend every waking hour these days on setting up my business so I can HAPPILY be one of those people who gave up looking for a job!
trolls
I said they shouldn't be blocked, just called out.
BlackHawk - your sense of humour is awesome. Now why would I be under attack by three individual nice guys all at once?
My paranoia is getting to me. Off to hum the mantra.
Replies
@ groaner - there you see.....I bet that feels better. Just keep thinking green.
@XTY - yes smoking does come to mind.
As for control and capitulation etc. We give "them" too much credit (scuse intended pun). I suspect they are hanging on by their finger tips. Remember it is their job to try and convince the sheeple that they are in full control. I suspect the more overt this looks, the less real power they have.
Yes, a new breed of Troll. Not like the others. They have morphed and adapted in order to live longer inside this host. It is a hard call though. Yes alternative view points are welcome. It would be wrong to jump on everyone with a contrarian view point.
For example, I have found myself asking myself some of those questions. It is only natural to do so. As any good chess player looks at every possible move the opponent can make, regardless of how out of the box those moves are - we live in interesting times - I suspect that when it goes (not if) it will be overnight.
One day they will be telling us how fine it all is with growth etc. The next day will look like the financial equivalent of a post skynet Sarah Conner moment.
About this GDP thing......... if all measures of inflation are understated as per John Williams, then all Western economies are actually shrinking, not growing. That being the case, printing will be going on forever.
Stack.
Answer to Pinning the Fjords
I'll gladly answer your question, but before you ask you might want to read some other posts I have written and find the answer in them. I understand though since it's easier to ask.
I find the site funny and informative (TA BS notwithstanding). I respect the Turd and am grateful for what he does (I think he's not a Troll, but one can never be sure). I also agree with 80% of the stuff that he represents. Last but surely not the least, I find some of the guest comments so funny and sometimes informative, that I cannot refrain from reading them.
I'd like to ask you a question now: In your opinion, do you think I have to either agree with 100% of what the Turd is saying (like some characters), or am I allowed some independent thought? I believe that "circle-the-wagon" individuals are more harmful to this website than the so called "Trolls".
Hope this answers your question.
Vampire TROLLS...
...suck the blood out of the site.
Let's see who comes out and keeps playing.
Well said IS7!
Right on, well put!
It is generating an off topic divide between folks here.....
( Though I am also curious if TF can look and see if any of these suspected Trolls have ever 'Fed the Turd'... that would be another indicator to me...)
@Turd .... What's our Vector, Victor
Hmmm. This doesn't sound like anyone around here, does it???
Confused?? ... You will be, after the next episode of TURD! [wink]
.
PS ..... Again, after this week's Trollings/Smackdowns, please remember that stress can be, well ... stressful [wink] :-
Yin and Yang
No, not the law firm in San Francisco. Instead, the endless schizophrenia of The Fed.
News Headline Summary
(Fed)
Fed's Williams says its crucial that the Fed continues highly accommodative monetary policy
.Abraxas..
...damn, I thought that you got pissed-off yesterday and vowed to never return or be heard from again, did I miss something?...
My input...
TF, I'm happy to pay if you think that will help. I know large entities can afford to pay for paid disinfo agents but if it would be a deterrent that's fine. Also, I think I was listening to the same thing you were this morning referencing the Sunstein article, but did you post a link earlier and I just missed it? If not, do you have a link? Thank you so much and have a great day!
By the way, ordered (hope it makes it to my house) one of those beautiful silver coins with the turtle on it, so beautiful! : )
Turd RE: Hmmm ...
Here's an idea:
Have a single, dedicated comment area for non-paying subscribers.
For people paying $20 a year (or $100 or whatever), they get access as is.
The Scroll Button works Wonders...
I, personally, find that the scroll button works wonders.....
Turd, as you know, there are going to be contrarians in any gathering of people and Turdville is no exception. It's difficult to not get wrapped up into an argumentative approach that some people bring to this site. You have made a great contribution in providing this platform and sharing your thoughts.... the real Turdites know that and respect it! Ultimately, do what you need to do so that this site remains a positive aspect of your life. :-)
XTY
Cass Sunstein Paper
@Maryann:
Here is a download Link to the Cass Sunstein Paper. It was posted in the comments on page 1.
It really is an amazing read, and as I said before, you really have to read this for yourself to understand the rabbit hole we are in.
Well this is turning out to
Well this is turning out to be a regular witch hunt.
Just because somebody posts a dissenting opinion doesn't make them a troll. Maybe they need to be educated. Maybe they haven't been stacking for years. Maybe they are partially right and we are partially wrong?
We are all adults. If you don't agree with somebody, post an articulate response and start a discourse about it. If you can't do that then move on and ignore them.
You certainly can't pick out trolls by seeing who has donated and who hasn't. That seems absurd.
To be honest I'm a little stunned that everybody wants a homogenous environment here. Seems to negate the benefit of the group.
Really?
Abraxas just stated....." I respect the Turd and am grateful for what he does (I think he's not a Troll, but one can never be sure)."
Lol! Ok...that was easy enough.
Watch how this proceeds, because it's informative.
Government inflation numbers are also a gross misrepresentation
Now, as investors, we must employ due diligence not only on potential investment opportunities, but on government statistics as well. The CPI is a crock too. Keep up the good work.
Pining 4 the Fjords
Wow... just wow. I run two websites: a very popular site about UK national debt, and a tiny site for some UK goldbug forum acquaintances, so you think I join an American PM site to troll or self-promote? You guys are nuts!
I started posting because I saw the interesting 'debates' with Victor the Cleaner (who I only recognise as an extremely thorough long-term poster at FOFOA) and thought it was worthwhile to participate. Anyone who has taken any time to read FOFOA and study our evolving future monetary system would understand the points I'm making as perfectly legitimate.
Anyway, I'll leave you to keep posting stuff like "This really is a battle against the banks - they have convinced an entire generation that 'currency' can be separated from value".
There is absolutely no intellectual merit in such an emotive statement that pays no attention to the evolving role of gold and money.
Abraxas - aut Bellum
Abraxas:
I respect the Turd and am grateful for what he does (I think he's not a Troll, but one can never be sure).
Banning would be too good for you.
TA Works or Doesn't
Thank you Patriot Family for your comment on TA. However, I still wouldn't put a dime based on what that oracle tells me (might as well look in some tea leaves).
I only know one thing, when I trusted my own research and instincts I did OK on the market. When I started listening to the experts (Embry like) I got raped. Now, just because I can't see the connection between TA and future it doesn't mean there isn't one.
I woud agree with pay to play...
I have no problem submitting an annual payment to play here as long as it's reasonable. I have always been extremely wary of sites where people spout off, insult each other, etc but it's only because they can get away with it and never reveal their true identity. That changes drastically when you lose your anonymity and site administrators can see exactly who you are.
As long as my personal information is secure, I think it's a good option.
As for paying a monthly fee as part of a subscription service, I've made my view known that I'd like to see a little more consistency on the analysis side out of this site before that happens. But it's only my opinion. I think Turd F. is on the right track.
@ maravich44
"...damn, I thought that you got pissed-off yesterday and vowed to never return or be heard from again, did I miss something?..."
Yes maravich44 you missed my first post on this tread (page 1 I think)
Today's real action today was in Crude
Now that is a jaw-dropping drop
Went Shopping This a.m.
Did some shopping and some buying through the links provided here at TF Metals... Chin Up Soldier!
(I'm just busting some Troll Ballz!)
Hey "50sQuieff" Now support your statements... I'm listening.... links?
The evolving role of gold and money
One in which the banks get the gold, and you get the 'money'.
Yep, Abraxas, I think we are
Yep, Abraxas, I think we are sort of on the same page. I've had a LOT of trouble with TA strictly looking at the metals. I'm finding a bit more success with the miners and mining related operations like SLW.
There are some patterns that are clear as a bell, though. Just have to watch for them and once they are easily defined from all the static, I feel like I can buy or trade at those times.
I pay very little attention to Embry or others because they all have their own levels of bias that influences their outlook or the info they are willing to share with the outside world. I only assign weight to their comments if they are providing objective information on political or market related price drivers for PMs. 90% of the time, their commentary is based on "feelings" and offhand comments about the market. Tread carefully.
What is the bond market telling us?
Based on bond prices alone, overt QE does not look imminent. However, why the rally today? And why is the 30-yr not participating at the same rate as the 10-yr? Note that the spread has compressed to just 120 basis points. And who, for the love of pete, is willing to give money to Uncle Sam for 30 years at an annual yield of just over 3%?
Regardless, block out all the noise about WOPRs and OI and CoTs and the like and you're left with an investment climate of negative, real interest rates. Negative, real rates have always been and always will be one of, if not the, driving factor behind precious metal accumulation. More here:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3325/case-you-missed-it
ORD @ proton777
Well spotted, though I would think TPTB will use the Comex close to deny it occurred.
USD index is also on target for an ORD after a big rise today. Don't know what news that means for this weekend???