Quick Update

Thursday, May 3, 2012 at 10:28 am

Here comes a stream of consciousness. Probably not a good idea but here goes.

I think this is all a big setup. However, this time, it's an opposite setup to what we're used to.

The action this week seems to be a coordinated effort to suck in and trap as many spec shorts as possible ahead of tomorrow.

Every headline this week that could possibly be used to raid the gold market has been utilized.

Today is the latest example but note that the dollar was declining and silver was flat.

The decline after the claims number was released was on less than 2000 contracts. The Cartel pulled their bids and allowed the WOPRs to quickly drop price through some sell stops at 1640. This process has continued to this moment as gold has now made a low near 1635.

This final drop was worked in around the London PM fix and now gold will likely trade sideways to higher the rest of the day as WOPR positions are squared before the close.

The stage is now set for a massive short squeeze tomorrow. Look, I have no idea what the BLSBS will be. How could I know? Maybe we'll get 7.9%, 250,000 jobs and $100 down in gold. I have no idea. What I do know, however, is this: Today reeks of a final suck-in of shorts ahead of the number. Does The Cartel know what the number will be? Maybe. I can tell you this: The likelihood of them knowing ahead of time is infinitely higher than the likelihood of me knowing.

With so many weak handed longs stopped out this week, there are really none left. And now, all of the weak hands are on the short side. They look ripe to be squeezed.

A spike tomorrow, post the BLSBS, looks likely. Just as how The EE allowed the final silver spec longs to be drawn in on Feb 28 ahead of The Leap Day Beatdown, The Gold Cartel has allowed the final gold spec shorts to be drawn in today.

A spike tomorrow will cause extreme pressure on the gold shorts. A move back toward 1660 and beyond will cause them to cover. London is closed on Monday. This may cause additional shorts to cover. Would you want to be short over the weekend if NFP comes in at under 100,000?

Our pal Andy just sent me an email informing me that Shanghai silver traded with a premium to futures of $1.26 overnight! $1.26!. There is serious to extreme physical demand near $30 for silver. The paper market for silver is a joke and is being made obsolete. Anyone short silver is playing with fire.

Andy also told me of huge sovereign and central bank orders for physical at 1635 and 1625, though we were both surprised at the willingness to fill the orders at 1645. Every time The Cartel takes paper gold down, they lose more physical metal out the back door. This cannot continue much longer. It simply cannot.

Uncle Ted kicks ass. Here's an excerpt from his latest:

"In silver, the price action has been so poor that every day the phrase “the beatings will continue until morale improves” plays in my mind. Taken with everything discussed above, I’m left with the impression that the commercials are deliberately making silver look so bad in order to extract every last drop of blood from the speculative selling stone. At least the beatings are keeping the price below the moving averages, so this week’s reports should indicate a further reduction in the total net commercial short position in silver. Given the motive behind the poor silver price action, my guess is that JPM has reduced its concentrated short position by a bunch.

I’m sensing that JPMorgan is now down to 14,000 contracts net short in COMEX silver futures. That’s down from the 16,000 contracts at the last COT cut-off and down a whopping 5,000 contracts from the 19,000 contracts JPM was short in the last Bank Participation Report, as of April 3. There has been a noticeable determination on JPMorgan’s part to get its silver short position down. Clearly, if there is intent behind the rotten price action, it is for JPMorgan to buy back as many of its silver shorts as possible. I’d rather the whole thing blow up in their crooked faces, but the next best thing is for them to cover as they have done."

God bless Uncle Ted.

I still can't post charts. Everybody else can but not me. Seriously. But The Tech Team is working on it so I hope to be able to post them again later today.

I know you're sick of hearing me say this but the key word is "PATIENCE". Silver isn't going to $20. It's not going to $25, either. The domination and manipulation of silver by The Evil Empire is ending, whether they want to admit it or not.

That said, only experienced traders with money to lose should be playing in the actual casino. The manipulation can surely outlast your trading account and, absent a clear trend higher, traders will be whipsawed to death. Join the central banks, large institutions and wealthy individuals worldwide. Buy physical metal and take delivery. Hold it in your own vault or safe. To paraphrase WOPR: "A strange game. The only winning move is to take delivery."

Keep the faith. TF

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Comments

SILVER SHAKEOUT

Submitted by Chibster on May 4, 2012 - 2:42am.

just a reminder

SILVER SHAKEOUT - Mike Maloney on the big picture

Faith? Who needs it...

Submitted by Audrey on May 4, 2012 - 3:32am.

Keep the faith. TF

Who needs faith Mr Turd, when one has a stash of (physical) Au & Ag?

Simply relax, and observe...in peace.

60 day SGR

Submitted by Jasound on May 4, 2012 - 3:32am.

IMO, This always needs to be considered.

And the current 24 hr GSR

I think I've found the

Submitted by Hammer on May 4, 2012 - 3:52am.

I think I've found the problem.

Free Driving in China

Submitted by Jasound on May 4, 2012 - 3:57am.

GM to build 2013 Cadillac XTS in China this year

From The Detroit News: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120423/AUTO0103/204230371#ixzz1tsyol81G

Maloney

Submitted by binzer on May 4, 2012 - 3:58am.

He gets to plug not only his company but his book too (courtesy of that other true altruist Mr Kiyosaki).

Nice work huh......these guys are so considerate, they care about us so much.

Those that followed the perma bulls advice of the last few years to continue buying and never sell/lessen their holdings - well some of those poor souls must be sitting on some hefty losses right now.

Now underwater on around 50% of my silver.

Submitted by Number 47 on May 4, 2012 - 4:20am.

Price dropped under 23 euro. Bought a fair bit at this price.

Not worried though, nothing in Europe is going to be plain sailing.

Should be a fun week next week.

1628/29.85 leaking lower all

Submitted by ink on May 4, 2012 - 4:31am.

1628/29.85 leaking lower all the time during European morning trade.

@47 (prettiest number on the periodic table b.t.w.)

Submitted by achmachat on May 4, 2012 - 4:50am.

I don't know what the average euro cost for our silver is, because I never thought it to be too important. We're not traders, and it's not meant to be a short term investment.

But it should be around 26 euros per troy ounce.

@Achmachat

Submitted by Number 47 on May 4, 2012 - 4:57am.

No panic, easy for me to say as I'm not near my average yet but I'm not in this for a quick buck either. We're on the right side of the trade. I'm not selling, will be buying (bullionvault) this week and next, hope the prices keep dropping while my transfer goes through. Hoping for 20 or less. (For now, while I'm buying of course!)

Where in Europe are you? I'm in Ireland.

Ireland...

Submitted by achmachat on May 4, 2012 - 5:05am.

...isn't that the place with the obscene VAT on silver?

I am in Luxembourg. Just like in Germany, we have 0% on gold and 7% on silver with face value (maples, eagles, philharmonics, noah's arcs etc.) and 19% on "private" silver products like bars, generic rounds etc.

No sign of a short squeeze thus far

Submitted by York Rite on May 4, 2012 - 5:15am.

Can the Alf Field $1,612.80 bottom declaration hold for a sixth day? Will the endorsement made by the House of Seligman that was issued yesterday become a smouldering ruin within the next 12 hours?

Re: No sign of a short squeeze

Submitted by ink on May 4, 2012 - 5:27am.

No use looking out for a short squeeze before the NFE numbers are out later today.

@York Rite

Submitted by ed on May 4, 2012 - 5:31am.

Lets hope Alf Field's declaration holds .... I suspect it probably will. Side note and not directed at you specifically, I thought the comments in the Perth Mint blog as to how CBs buy gold stealthily quite interesting.

http://www.perthmintbullion.com/Blog/Blog/12-05-04/What_Jelly_Donuts_Have_To_Do_With_Gold.aspx

I take comfort

Submitted by ed on May 4, 2012 - 5:38am.

knowing massive phyz demand at 1625, 1635 and 1645. I would say based on these facts that it will be basically impossible for a price below 1625 to be sustained for very long.

Morning Toons

Submitted by ClinkinKY on May 4, 2012 - 6:05am.

@ Ed

Submitted by York Rite on May 4, 2012 - 6:05am.

Staying with massive, Mr Massive (aka the London Trader) when he emerged from his hidey hole on March 8 assured readers that the Chinese would gobble up any silver at sub $34. Almost two months and a 12% discount later they're being accommodated with no sign of the LBMA member banks' vaults emptying. In his next appearance he was back with his liberal use of the M word with regard to gold.

London Trader - Massive Physical Silver Orders Filled Near $33

- As long as we stay under $34, there is going to be constant accumulation. What does it matter if you buy silver at $32 or $38, when it is going to go multiples higher from these levels? The Chinese know this and that is why they are accumulating in size. -

More: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/8_London_Trader_-_Massive_Physical_Silver_Orders_Filled_Near_$33.html

Bearish

Submitted by ClinkinKY on May 4, 2012 - 6:06am.

Lockstep

Submitted by ClinkinKY on May 4, 2012 - 6:08am.

And finally...

Submitted by ClinkinKY on May 4, 2012 - 6:09am.

Friday mornin.....6AM...OH MY~!

Submitted by abguy4 on May 4, 2012 - 6:13am.

29 point what?????????????

Are you jokers done taunting the B-cup Barracuda yet?
You knew there was gonna be Hell to pay

If you didn't give her those slippers.

Time to get a good grip on that puppy and just pout and stamp your feet.

Where are the Chinese when you need them, huh???

Yorkie on Iggy list...

Submitted by Gramp on May 4, 2012 - 6:17am.

Trolling a few lines in the water huh Yorkie?

That's cool, even dead fish go with the flow.

a mystery to me

Submitted by binzer on May 4, 2012 - 6:25am.

why on earth people are still reading and quoting KWN ????

Surely what they put forward there is just as misleading as the forces we are supposedly fighting against.

Provident has 100 oz Engy's for $0.35/oz over spot

Submitted by recaptureamerica on May 4, 2012 - 6:37am.

http://www.providentmetals.com/

Imagine Turd will post more on this

Submitted by Tabberto on May 4, 2012 - 6:48am.

but meanwhile an excerpt from Sandeep Jaitly's latest Gold Basis (Backwardation/Contango) Service update:

It cannot be emphasised more clearly that gold is being removed from the physical market at the depressed prices. Furthermore, the availability of gold to the lending market is being diminished.

Silver’s action is more acute than gold’s. The May contract – expiring in 25 days is in a backwardation of 1.46% currently (chart to left). The July contract’s co-basis is rising simultaneously – which should not be occurring unless there is unprecedented pressure on the physical silver market. The action of the ratios of the December gold/silver bases points to imminent silver outperformance.

Wall Street's Legal Magic

Submitted by recaptureamerica on May 4, 2012 - 6:49am.

Wall Street's Legal Magic Ends an American Right

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-streets-legal-magic-ends-230024311.ht...

two roads lead into the woods..and the same crap pile

Submitted by recaptureamerica on May 4, 2012 - 6:52am.

U.S. Chose Better Path to Recovery

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-chose-better-path-recovery-101205775.htm...

words, and names, have meaning

Submitted by Xty on May 4, 2012 - 6:53am.

Most Excellent Master

A Degree that emphasizes the lesson of reverence. This Degree is centered on the dedication of the Temple after its completion, particularly the consecration of the Sanctum Sanctorum and the descent of the Host into the Temple. It is complimentary to the Mark Master Degree and completes the symbolic lessons introduced in that Degree.

The Royal Arch

The completion of the Master Mason Degree and the summit of the original Degrees of the Blue Lodge as practiced in the Antients Lodges of England before 1820. The Degree explains the origins of the Substitute Word found in the Master Mason Degree, the recovery of the Ineffable Word, and its concealment within the Royal Arch Word. This Degree, together with the Master Mason Degree, may have once been exemplified as one large or "super" Degree, with the Master Mason Degree explaining the loss of the Master's Word and the Royal Arch explaining the recovery of the Master's Word. The presiding body is a Chapter, and the presiding officer is a High Priest (titled Excellent).

The Cryptic Degrees

General Grand Council - www.ggccmi.org

The Cryptic Degrees are a set of three degrees controlled by the Select Masters Council. The degrees get their name from the reference to a hidden or secret vault in the degrees, hence the term Cryptic. Only the first two degrees are regularly worked, the third degree, that of Super Excellent Master, is worked as an honorary degree, not being required as a requisite for membership in the Council. It is also somewhat peculiar in its association with the Cryptic degrees, as it is more closely allied in theme and character with the Royal Arch and the Illustrious Order of the Red Cross.

http://yorkrite.com/degrees/

Good morning (maybe)

Submitted by Xty on May 4, 2012 - 7:01am.

Great cartoons this morning - choked on the middle-class robbery.

I am, however, crusty about something:

Please stop accusing people of 'talking their book' when they have been successful investing in the very field you are meant to be interested in. Would you listen to someone who was bankrupt or knew nothing?

binzer - if you don't like KWN, turn it off. For god's sake, don't you change the radio station in your car ever?

This is not a site for getting rich quick (unless you go to Pailin's Corner!) It is a site for preparing for the end of Keynesianism. If you think that that is not coming, then please re-consider. If you think it is coming, then let's figure out when and what we might try to do about it.

(cannot use preview - post vanishes, as does cursor - happening for days. Also getting asked security questions randomly, after trying to copy something in to a comment. Wondered about TF not being able to post charts. never happened before)