Quick Update
Here comes a stream of consciousness. Probably not a good idea but here goes.
I think this is all a big setup. However, this time, it's an opposite setup to what we're used to.
The action this week seems to be a coordinated effort to suck in and trap as many spec shorts as possible ahead of tomorrow.
Every headline this week that could possibly be used to raid the gold market has been utilized.
Today is the latest example but note that the dollar was declining and silver was flat.
The decline after the claims number was released was on less than 2000 contracts. The Cartel pulled their bids and allowed the WOPRs to quickly drop price through some sell stops at 1640. This process has continued to this moment as gold has now made a low near 1635.
This final drop was worked in around the London PM fix and now gold will likely trade sideways to higher the rest of the day as WOPR positions are squared before the close.
The stage is now set for a massive short squeeze tomorrow. Look, I have no idea what the BLSBS will be. How could I know? Maybe we'll get 7.9%, 250,000 jobs and $100 down in gold. I have no idea. What I do know, however, is this: Today reeks of a final suck-in of shorts ahead of the number. Does The Cartel know what the number will be? Maybe. I can tell you this: The likelihood of them knowing ahead of time is infinitely higher than the likelihood of me knowing.
With so many weak handed longs stopped out this week, there are really none left. And now, all of the weak hands are on the short side. They look ripe to be squeezed.
A spike tomorrow, post the BLSBS, looks likely. Just as how The EE allowed the final silver spec longs to be drawn in on Feb 28 ahead of The Leap Day Beatdown, The Gold Cartel has allowed the final gold spec shorts to be drawn in today.
A spike tomorrow will cause extreme pressure on the gold shorts. A move back toward 1660 and beyond will cause them to cover. London is closed on Monday. This may cause additional shorts to cover. Would you want to be short over the weekend if NFP comes in at under 100,000?
Our pal Andy just sent me an email informing me that Shanghai silver traded with a premium to futures of $1.26 overnight! $1.26!. There is serious to extreme physical demand near $30 for silver. The paper market for silver is a joke and is being made obsolete. Anyone short silver is playing with fire.
Andy also told me of huge sovereign and central bank orders for physical at 1635 and 1625, though we were both surprised at the willingness to fill the orders at 1645. Every time The Cartel takes paper gold down, they lose more physical metal out the back door. This cannot continue much longer. It simply cannot.
Uncle Ted kicks ass. Here's an excerpt from his latest:
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Comments
Can't lose
I figure I can't lose tomorrow. I loaded up today, and if its a good report, I'll buy much more tomorrow. Gold under $1600 will only last a few hours, I honestlly believe that it would resemble the 1-2 hrs dip to sub 1550s back in Dec, lasted a a few hours and violently went back up threw 1550, next few weeks were great for the metals. Ill prob go in with some call options anywhere in the 1500s.If its a shitty report, gold goes up 40-50 $$s, and the new leg begins. If you have some dry power, Tomorrow you can't lose.
Thanks for the update, Turd.
Thanks for the update, Turd. Crossing my fingers and hoping it won't get undermined like PAGE did.
On a different topic, I'm reminded that back in Dec or January, I stated here that I thought silver wasn't going anywhere until at least May, based on the fact that JPM received an reprieve on having to abide by position limits until then. I figured the purpose behind the extension was to give them some more time to cover their shorts, and that they had a lot of incentive to keep smashing the price opportunistically and cover as much as they could until then.
What do you know - it's May already. I'm dying to see:
a) what JPM's net short position looks like at the end of this month, and
b) if the performance of the silver market magically improves from here on out
The Irate, Tireless Minority
I fail to understand how any physical metal is available; how a single ounce of physical gold or silver can be had Anywhere. Is the number of folks in the know – the number of Turdites, stackers, Central Bank-haters, freedom-loving, gold & silver hoarding preppers, truth seers and seekers – really THAT few in number? How is it possible that two Olympic size swimming pools worth of gold have not been scarfed up by good people 1000 times over?
Ron Paul is a popular guy. How can such a large number of people see his truth but not the truth of real money? How in the hell can big bullion retailers be offering DISCOUNTS on real money in this day and age of global fiat destruction? Are we that few in number? Is the general public really that obtuse?
I just don’t get it… shit is in a sad state of affairs.
Well, at least I haven’t had to plug any looters yet. Time to go back to enjoying life. Fuck it - I think I’ll have a beer.
Update: Monarch
Monarch has made right on their order to me.
They took back the 90% coins that were not up to their advertisement. I sent back 5 walking liberties and 4 Standing liberties. Since they do not have any other standing liberties on hand, they gave me a credit and paid for the shipping. They are sending me replacements for my walkers. Let's hope for decent looking ones, with dates.
They're okay by me, now.
disclosure: the walker and liberties are still worn, but the advertisement doesn't say anything different than dated and circulated. So don't expect to get beauties. I just wanted some walkers to give as gifts.
Backward Asian
@RTMon
The backward asian post from Feb 2011 is a classic..
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/backward-asian.html
How is physical metal
How is physical metal available? Because those that bought $4 silver have seen it sit at $30 for 9 months now and want to take some profit.
Makes sense to me. That's a 7 bagger.
Question #5
5. If gold and silver serve to protect your purchasing power but do NOT make you wealthy, will you feel like you have failed?
To me the necessary followup question is – If you followed Their script, played by Their rules, used Their tools and, subsequently, became wealthy – would you be proud?
If the answer to this is yes, then all of the talk about leveling the playing field, justice, righteousness and freedom, just took a bullet to the face.
I think a lot of us who claim to be stackers and, on some level fight the good fight, are ultimately seduced by the system they’ve setup. As long as we seek wealth using their tools, their script and their rules, we undermine our own cause.
@ How is physical metal
If that is true and the goal of stacking switches from wealth preservation to fiat-based profit, then our supposed goals will most certainly go un-achieved. We all preach disregarding a meaningless fiat price for our physical metals; it seems like we only preach it until the time it becomes either inconvenient or profitable; whichever comes first.
Run Like Hell
All I know is that I'm buying some silver tonight no matter what
Re: Dr G's Question "When to Sell..."
Dr. G:
I see you've given this subject a great deal of thought as I have done as well. I am in full agreement with Turd that metals are for protection, not necessarily profit or wealth building.
I can't answer your questions because the future hasn't unwound, but I'm observant and well versed in the ways of hostile governments. All I know to do is pay attention, plan for the worst and hope for the best. It's what I was trained to do and it comes naturally.
I don't put much stock in KWN all stars or other prognosticators. It seems so many folks like the attention and pontificate beyond all reason. Our Mayor, Turd, however is smart, very well versed in what he speaks and is careful to not make will assed forecasts. That's the reason I trust him, goes for others in this community that follow the same creed.
Dollar cost averaging has worked well for me and I love to buy metal cheaply. Bring on 25 dollar silver, I've got an empty barn.
Dr G
Physical isn't about profit. It is about preserving wealth.
Jesse's TA
For what it's worth, Jesse's analysis shows a converging wedge, with support around $29. I do not know how Jesse draws his trend lines. There are lots of them, though ;-)
I am not being facetious with
I am not being facetious with my simple answers. When we are lucky enough to acquire physical metals, they are the last things we would sell if we needed money - so if we sold them, we would either only have them left, or use the 'money' we got selling them to buy more. When I say gold and silver are money, I mean it. I currently feel it is the soundest money I can own - so price is not really a question - it is all exchange rates - and every other currency is made of paper or digits - third party risk is enormous. Yes, we still have fiat in the markets (hello miners, can you hear me?) and that is for 'profits'. We need a new model - and then we can move forward. But a trustable, gold-backed currency is going to be demanded by the market, or all trade will cease.
100 Ounce Bar Inventory Levels
If there is any interest, I started a running inventory report in the Silver forum regarding 100 ounce bars available from APMEX for immediate delivery. They seem to be running to the lower end of their "average" inventory levels and I find it interesting to watch them during "stress" in the Silver Market.
Another piece of the puzzle however small. Long Silver-Strong Silver!
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/3755/apmex-inventory-levels
Dr. G asked :-
Some questions that I hope everybody has thought about:
1. When will you sell your gold and silver? ... I reply :- SOME either (a) if I need "emergency fiat" for an unforeseen expenditure, or (b) to purchase a MAJOR asset that is needed for my family more than the metal. ... The LAST time I sold any was over 20 years ago.
2. What will be the sign that you should sell? ... I reply :- Probably SOME when I see the second-half of people/family I have TRIED & FAILED to convince to get PM-Insurance start to "stampede" into physical metals ... but I would still keep a substantial balance for inheritance purposes & future-insurance for my wife & kids when I peg it.
3. What will you purchase? ... I reply :- I Don't know yet ... My home & land is already bought free & clear & I have an excellent gravity-fed artesian-well supply of potable water. I would definitely like some kind of independent on-site electricity generation (which would have to be solar, wind, or hydro), and I would want a LARGE & SECURE storage of vehicle fuel-supply
4. Are you so one-sided in your beliefs that you may end up riding the bull to the top and all the way down to the bottom? ... I reply :- NOPE! ... Our stack of metals are MERELY a "tool" & a "means to an end" for the protection of my family's future, and I have no particular "loyalty" to them beyond this. ... I would quite happily swap all my metals for dog-shit IF doing so would IMPROVE my family's Quality of Life or future well-being.
5. If gold and silver serve to protect your purchasing power but do NOT make you wealthy, will you feel like you have failed? ... I reply :- I don't think so, and I HOPE not .... As you can see from my previous answers, my PRIMARY goals are to (a) protect as much as I can of my family's "hard earned wealth", and (b) to prevent THIEVES (such as Governments & Banks) from stealing it .... Making us "additionally wealthy" would be a pleasant BONUS in my eyes.
So do I ... I'm not, nor ever will be, a "Paper Trader", so Turd's "Technical Market Analysis" is fairly useless to me, BUT his "Sentiment & Gut Calls" of the market (along with ALL those of the other posters here) offer me "Priceless Insights" into the Human & Political Psychology of the Financial World which DO or WILL affect me & mine, and help me to decide WHICH PATH I should choose for my family.
.
.
P.S.
For all those who seem to getting so depressed & downhearted about the recent "smackdowns", I would firstly offer the same advice as Turd & others, namely "PATIENCE, grasshopper ... This too shall pass".
Secondly, I present Two Questions of my own for Physical-Stackers to consider, namely :-
1) ... WHERE precisely would you have SAFELY "Put, Invested, or Stored" your fiat-wealth IF you had not bought your metals at the time you did ?
(Untruthful HINDSIGHT answers of AAPL are invalid UNLESS you would TRULY have done so AT THAT TIME ... & I for one would NOT have bought AAPL)
, 2) ... WHERE would you FEEL SAFE putting that fiat now IF you sold every last gram tomorrow?
Silver @ $500
It will hit $500 easily one day. In fact it could reach a quadrillion dollars depending on how many dollars are printed.
What am I going to buy?
I plan on buying lots of good quality property, rental properties and a little farm for myself. I would also put a smaller portion into stocks that would most likely survive the collapse. I wouldn't be too hasty to say that no companies will survive. The article by Gonzo?, I can't remember his name, and someone he knew had bought $3,000 US worth of Chilean stock when their economy was experiencing hyperinflation in the 70s. This man he knew ended up living off of the investment for his entire life.
I could also see myself trading some wheat for some land. My father-in-law knew someone during the Great Depression who traded a barrel of wheat for 300+ acres in Utah. Truth be told people, when TSHTF people will first acquire some food. If these people have lots of money and a bank holiday hasn't occurred yet, they will then go to metals or hold cash. Most likely hold cash first. When they start to realize, not from the MSM, that the dollar is being destroyed they'll go to metals but good luck finding them.
It depends how chaotic things become. If it is a bit of anarchy gold and silver will be put on hold because people will be trying to protect themselves and feed their families. If things don't become too chaotic it will still be hard for people to find food.
America contains some of the most arrogant, prideful and entitled feeling people in all of written history! How would I know? I'm 26 years old and have grown up in the midst of it!
Unfortunately I will probably be taking advantage of someone who has "stuff" but who was too deceived to store tangible assets.
hearing
Its not politically correct to say but I am hearing an awful lot of conjecture and forensic analysis on this page which I suppose is natural but which doesn't hold anymore water than anything else. If it did you could trade it and make a lot of money.
Calling out a coming short squeeze? Maybe, maybe not. One thing is sure. This site is being read by 'the enemy' no question in my mind. So when I read someone talk about 'great support' at pt. A whether thats 30 or whatever and that Silver can't possibly go to 25 I just cringe. Its like going into battle against an enemy that has far superior weaponry and out numbers you by huge amounts and painting a bulls eye right in the middle of your forehead. It is unwise.
80% of this thing is HFT Algos. Bots. The Borg.
Silverwealth
what should we say?
Turd Tantrum
I mean really? Wow, it must be tough being you.
RE:- "What constitutes success?"
So, your question is really, "What constitutes success?" (rather than is it a failure to not get rich)
The BEST concise definition I've ever heard was made by one of your wise countrymen :-
MY answer would be the same as his, "Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness"
... YMMV
What should we say?
Let's say we are all going to short the Miners!
Grigeo
So, as per Dr. Rui Feng: "silver is money in China, it has always
been a big part of everyone's savings.........silver is the poor man's
gold, and it's been this way, as you said for millenia."
LOL, maybe someone should clue in Victor The Cleaner about
that fact.
Audi.
Walking Liberties
Not a big deal but I bought one tube tonight.
Apmex for $302 (tax+$10 del. incl.) with Ag at $30.16 /ask
No getting around the premiums. They also had Sunshine Mint silver bars for $.99 over spot but I already have some and would like to trade them in for gold at some point.
One of the best looking coins
One of the best looking coins ever made. Congrats!
3 elections coming up shortly
that might be very important.
Greek election
French election
local German election
So Jealous of the Tube, Turdite Formerly Known as DPH
IS7, nice, real nice!
@XTY: What should we say?
@XTY,
Good question. I think SilverWealth makes some good points.
Like I said earlier on this thread, I'd like to see a moratorium for the rest of the month on price predictions on this site, and all the other pro precious metal sites/blogs. And yes, I realize this is impractical and/or impossible.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/161317#comment-161317
The one big thing that I don't like is the fact that all the bullish calls over the last few months have been GUNNED DOWN!! Hmm. Can all the big sites/analysts/good guys (TFMetals, KWN, Sinclair, Sprott, Hoffman, etc) put a temporary moratorium on all bullish calls for the remainder of May, AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS?
EDIT: Actually, I'd only suggest refraining on short term price targets, not necessarily bullish sentiment!
question
XTY, in answer I would say just don't make yourself a target. Alf Fields announcing the bottom is in is a target announcement. He is widely read and followed. Why wouldn't they just continue to stop-sweep his 'support' levels if he is going to call them out? People think the NSA can listen to everything they say and write and not figure in that JPM and the other racketeers are not covering all the metals sites with word identifying ALGOs?
And regarding stacking. People might want to read A.J. today. If what he is saying carries any weight then one can assume they will just come and take the metal and label those hoarding it as terrorists. If it comes down to internments and camps and the like why wouldn't they do it? The land is lawless now. This has been demonstrated dozens of times. How bout a 90% tax on metal profits?
IMO if one does not store outside of this country and plan on or be already expatriated I don't see how any 'wealth' gets preserved. They are hiring huge numbers of TSA goons now. Do people think that they won't be employed to feret out stashes? Do people at all wonder why Jim Sinclair, ole man Rhino Horn himself, is leaving the country? The real reason?
Final thought on Silver and POSX ( may repost if it's good )
Here's what has been on my mind today ... and Turd has mentioned it in previous posts.
The EE not only manipulates silver and gold, it also intervenes in the POSX. In my opinion, this chart from today's action, copied right off the TFM front page, shows just such an event:
Looks like they want to keep the POSX under 80. And because of the 'seesaw' relationship between POSX and the metals, when they shove one thing down, the others tend to take off. So the EE pushes down here, then pushes down there, always trying to manipulate for a certain outcome. Then they'll push equities up, which also affects these other things. And keep feeding rumors of QE or not-QE to the bots and a couple diehard 'traders', depending on the time of day.
The chaos in Europe is particularly troublesome for the EE, because it will cause these spikes in POSX and the metals as well. In my opinion, we have a year or three yet before the POSX breaks down completely. When I first started looking at this stuff just a few years ago, and once I understood what's involved, I didn't think we'd make it this long without a collapse, but there's a lot more inertia than you'd think in such a huge system.
[edit] Oh, and 267th!
I am not so sure
I think we should talk about what the true price should be - if we don't, how will we change things?