Quick Update

Thursday, May 3, 2012 at 10:28 am

Here comes a stream of consciousness. Probably not a good idea but here goes.

I think this is all a big setup. However, this time, it's an opposite setup to what we're used to.

The action this week seems to be a coordinated effort to suck in and trap as many spec shorts as possible ahead of tomorrow.

Every headline this week that could possibly be used to raid the gold market has been utilized.

Today is the latest example but note that the dollar was declining and silver was flat.

The decline after the claims number was released was on less than 2000 contracts. The Cartel pulled their bids and allowed the WOPRs to quickly drop price through some sell stops at 1640. This process has continued to this moment as gold has now made a low near 1635.

This final drop was worked in around the London PM fix and now gold will likely trade sideways to higher the rest of the day as WOPR positions are squared before the close.

The stage is now set for a massive short squeeze tomorrow. Look, I have no idea what the BLSBS will be. How could I know? Maybe we'll get 7.9%, 250,000 jobs and $100 down in gold. I have no idea. What I do know, however, is this: Today reeks of a final suck-in of shorts ahead of the number. Does The Cartel know what the number will be? Maybe. I can tell you this: The likelihood of them knowing ahead of time is infinitely higher than the likelihood of me knowing.

With so many weak handed longs stopped out this week, there are really none left. And now, all of the weak hands are on the short side. They look ripe to be squeezed. 

A spike tomorrow, post the BLSBS, looks likely. Just as how The EE allowed the final silver spec longs to be drawn in on Feb 28 ahead of The Leap Day Beatdown, The Gold Cartel has allowed the final gold spec shorts to be drawn in today.

A spike tomorrow will cause extreme pressure on the gold shorts. A move back toward 1660 and beyond will cause them to cover. London is closed on Monday. This may cause additional shorts to cover. Would you want to be short over the weekend if NFP comes in at under 100,000?

Our pal Andy just sent me an email informing me that Shanghai silver traded with a premium to futures of $1.26 overnight! $1.26!. There is serious to extreme physical demand near $30 for silver. The paper market for silver is a joke and is being made obsolete. Anyone short silver is playing with fire.

Andy also told me of huge sovereign and central bank orders for physical at 1635 and 1625, though we were both surprised at the willingness to fill the orders at 1645. Every time The Cartel takes paper gold down, they lose more physical metal out the back door. This cannot continue much longer. It simply cannot.

Uncle Ted kicks ass. Here's an excerpt from his latest:

"In silver, the price action has been so poor that every day the phrase “the beatings will continue until morale improves” plays in my mind. Taken with everything discussed above, I’m left with the impression that the commercials are deliberately making silver look so bad in order to extract every last drop of blood from the speculative selling stone. At least the beatings are keeping the price below the moving averages, so this week’s reports should indicate a further reduction in the total net commercial short position in silver. Given the motive behind the poor silver price action, my guess is that JPM has reduced its concentrated short position by a bunch.
 I’m sensing that JPMorgan is now down to 14,000 contracts net short in COMEX silver futures. That’s down from the 16,000 contracts at the last COT cut-off and down a whopping 5,000 contracts from the 19,000 contracts JPM was short in the last Bank Participation Report, as of April 3. There has been a noticeable determination on JPMorgan’s part to get its silver short position down. Clearly, if there is intent behind the rotten price action, it is for JPMorgan to buy back as many of its silver shorts as possible.  I’d rather the whole thing blow up in their crooked faces, but the next best thing is for them to cover as they have done."
God bless Uncle Ted.
 
I still can't post charts. Everybody else can but not me. Seriously. But The Tech Team is working on it so I hope to be able to post them again later today.
 
I know you're sick of hearing me say this but the key word is "PATIENCE". Silver isn't going to $20. It's not going to $25, either. The domination and manipulation of silver by The Evil Empire is ending, whether they want to admit it or not. 
 
That said, only experienced traders with money to lose should be playing in the actual casino. The manipulation can surely outlast your trading account and, absent a clear trend higher, traders will be whipsawed to death. Join the central banks, large institutions and wealthy individuals worldwide. Buy physical metal and take delivery. Hold it in your own vault or safe. To paraphrase WOPR: "A strange game. The only winning move is to take delivery."
 
Keep the faith. TF
 
 

Comments

Maximillion's picture

Volumes must be low

Submitted by Maximillion on May 3, 2012 - 1:28pm.

Volumes must be low as Turds site has not crashed (or he's got a better server)

Dr G's picture

I think it's hilarious that

Submitted by Dr G on May 3, 2012 - 1:29pm.

I think it's hilarious that Turd says 1635 could be a bottom and then gold goes to 1633 and somebody gets their panties in a wad.

1635 and 1633 are the SAME FRICKIN' THING for all intents and purposes. Sheesh. Some of you need to get jobs.

Groaner's picture

I got into the metals in 2003 when gold was at $286

Submitted by Groaner on May 3, 2012 - 1:29pm.

A friend told me about gold and why its a good trade. got me into futures market and I thought this made lots of sense a good investment.. 

I didnt start buying physical until gold was at $700. I didn't know all the ropes and I did not know until thte past few years how corrupt the markets are, especially the metals.. So here I was thinking I was so smart getting into a good safe investment.. duhh.

Dr G's picture

EO, right you are. So you can

Submitted by Dr G on May 3, 2012 - 1:31pm.

EO, right you are. So you can bet the house that it is going below that. :)

Geez, WTI is getting mauled today.

enkidu's picture

Silver Closed just above 30

Submitted by enkidu on May 3, 2012 - 1:32pm.

Funny how that has happened... Almost like the market is rigged or something.

Of course its a free market though it would never be allowed to be rigged by the governments.

Turd Ferguson's picture

The dip into the close

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 3, 2012 - 1:32pm.
MODERATOR

Was, likely, the final drop as apparently noone wants to be long at 8:30 tomorrow.
Now, let's just wait to see how many want to be long at 8:31.

enkidu's picture

Re: The dip into the close

Submitted by enkidu on May 3, 2012 - 1:37pm.

Hi Turd

You really think there will be a rally?  You have been pretty much spot on lately I must admit....  

California Lawyer's picture

Time to Buy Silver for Sure

Submitted by California Lawyer on May 3, 2012 - 1:38pm.

Sentiment is as bad as I have ever seen, and I have been here since the watchtower and DPH days.  (I always liked the Jimi link, by the way!)

Anyhow, I took quite a beating on my stacking endeavors, loading up on not one, not two, but three monster boxes  when silver was trending higher above $36.  Like an idiot, I felt that unless I got in NOW, that the price would get away from me and be too expensive later.  Those were heady days, indeed.  I was also convinced that a bank holiday was just around the corner, and that by having any electronic, digital account balances in my local bank were foolish, so I elected to pay at least $3.00 per ounce premium for those nice big green boxes all full of the shiny.

Now look at me.  I got suckered into buying high, on the way up, because of my poor discipline, and lack of ability to separate the past movements in silver with the future expected ups and downs.  I did NOT buy on the dips.  Instead, I foolishly bought with emotion. So, I am sitting on a stack, what is left anyway after those most unfortunate boating incidents, with an average price in the $40's.  

Did I sell?  No, why would I, and lock in my losses?  So, I have just patiently watched, read, and waited.  This seems as good a bottom as I have ever seen.  The LAST thing I want to do is go get some physical.  That's how I know.

How to explain the absence of any upside movements in silver, for months now?  Why the narrow range, trending lower. Have not the fundamentals all stayed the same?  Is the Euro any closer to stability?  Greece is a mess, France is teetering, Obummer is down in the polls and we all know that desperation is precursor to radical acts of preservation, so I am firmly convinced that silver is about to correct way off these lows and get to a GSR closer to 30.  How can it not?

Finally, I heard on the radio yesterday, an advertisement.  This was the first time I have ever heard this.  I live in So. Cal., a large radio market.  I listen everyday.  One ad was touting the buying of "gold, diamonds, and SILVER."  That's right, SILVER.

Silver, that useless, industrial metal, is now being collected from the unsuspecting masses.  This is a radical harbinger.  It is time to back the truck up and stack like crazy, before the madness ensues.

Maybe that strange Ivars silver chart is useful as a predictor?  WTFDIK?

Good luck!

Turd Ferguson's picture

Look, I don't know

Submitted by Turd Ferguson on May 3, 2012 - 1:43pm.
MODERATOR

The bots and EE are in charge.
Now, that said, EVERY "traditional" thing I consider gives me the feeling that a massive short squeeze is coming.
Again, we'll see.

Ps: the last time price dipped this low, I was at Sams Club. I'm there again now. Coincidence? 

Platinum_Investor's picture

Just purchased 715 ounces of silver

Submitted by Platinum_Investor on May 3, 2012 - 1:44pm.

Called back Tulving.com and got a cheaper price.
$30.10 an ounce on $1000 face value bags of silver (Half dollars)  at zero premium over spot.

Another wack of silver off the market forever.  I've never sold one ounce since I started buying in 2008.

DeltaCharlie's picture

Dow is now falling

Submitted by DeltaCharlie on May 3, 2012 - 1:48pm.

Dow is now falling precipitously!  This NFP number is freaking everyone out. But I have a hunch there's more to it than that. I can think of French and Greek elections, and the tone Draghi took today... money printing is off the table and the spectre of 2008/09 is spooking everyone out. 

SilverRunNW's picture

Where is the outrage?

Submitted by SilverRunNW on May 3, 2012 - 1:48pm.

Here it is!!

I watched the SLV Jul $35 call options all morning (waiting for an entry), and had to put some skin in the game (at $.21).  After a 10 week downtrend on the silver weekly charts, you'd think we were due for an uptrend. 

I definitely like Turd's opinion of a short squeeze.

The one big thing that I don't like is the fact that all the bullish calls over the last few months have been GUNNED DOWN!!   Hmm.   Can all the big sites/analysts/good guys (TFMetals, KWN, Sinclair, Sprott, Hoffman, etc) put a temporary moratorium on all bullish calls for the remainder of May, AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS?

Now that would be interesting.

ReachWest's picture

Sam's Club

Submitted by ReachWest on May 3, 2012 - 1:54pm.

Turd! Stay the heck out of Sam's Club, for Pete's sake!

stan84ley's picture

comey

Submitted by stan84ley on May 3, 2012 - 1:55pm.

Can please someone help me. Where can I find data for silver monthly trading volume on COMEX before 2008, if it is possible from 2005 onwards . thank you very much

Bohemian's picture

The Marshall Plan II fro Europe

Submitted by Bohemian on May 3, 2012 - 1:55pm.

This BS talk about austerity, they are just doing their ground work. ;-) I spoke to our Reps in the EU last night, asking them about the scope of this new Marshall plan for Europe (they call it M.P. II), and yes, I was told that it is on its way and will be announced at the end of June by the EU Committee (EK). So, how much paper they will print in 2012-2013?

This Marshall Plan II should have 3 areas: 1) the EU Infrastructure 2) Renewable resources and energy, and 3) Research & Development... :-))) Incredible. It means that states and their various committees and departments, along with the EU committees and departments, will -- consider, evaluate and finance via their friends and political partners -- just about anything. Well, based on what Krugman and others are saying, we will get flooded too with something -- Really Grand, Monumental, for the posterity and textbooks. Gold has to be taken down now. The last opportunity. I don't mind. It goes well with the Sell-in-May strategy.

stan84ley's picture

comex

Submitted by stan84ley on May 3, 2012 - 1:55pm.

Can please someone help me. Where can I find data for silver monthly trading volume on COMEX before 2008, if it is possible from 2005 onwards . thank you very much

Big Buffalo's picture

Sam's Club

Submitted by Big Buffalo on May 3, 2012 - 1:58pm.

Turd,

Could you let us know the next time you go to Sam's Club? or maybe start going to Costco or Bj's.

Groaner's picture

Can you really believe the numbers?

Submitted by Groaner on May 3, 2012 - 1:59pm.

I dont... you cant trust them for sure so how will it help?

Torpedo Fish's picture

yea Ivars, your thoughts plz

Submitted by Torpedo Fish on May 3, 2012 - 2:02pm.

Ivars what do you think, should we load up paper right now or there are going to be even better dips ? 

DeltaCharlie's picture

Notice how the bank heads

Submitted by DeltaCharlie on May 3, 2012 - 2:03pm.

Notice how the bank heads have been bitching on about Dodd-Frank regulation in the news lately? Yeah, eat cake, and looking forward to their crappy Q2 earning results. 

Ferd Torgerson's picture

Not a Pick Up Line

Submitted by Ferd Torgerson on May 3, 2012 - 2:07pm.

Turd, just to  review - the TITS index is a measure of sentiment, etc., not a pick-up line to be tried out in the cosmetics aisle at Sam's Club.  Best for you to just continue asking "What's your sign?" rather than inquiring about their index (or indices as the case may be). 

Ferd

recaptureamerica's picture

More Americans Stashing Cash

Submitted by recaptureamerica on May 3, 2012 - 2:08pm.

More Americans Stashing Cash in Home Safes
http://www.smartmoney.com/plan/banking/more-americans-keeping-valuables-...

recaptureamerica's picture

Hugo Salinas Price: The gold

Submitted by recaptureamerica on May 3, 2012 - 2:10pm.

Hugo Salinas Price: The gold price -- the reds against the blues

http://gata.org/node/11319

Dyna mo hum's picture

Turd said

Submitted by Dyna mo hum on May 3, 2012 - 2:12pm.

The dip into the close Was, likely, the final drop as apparently noone wants to be long at 8:30 tomorrow.
Now, let's just wait to see how many want to be long at 8:31.  Turd thats a classic statement!!! Thats why I visit here!

recaptureamerica's picture

Uh oh.. Getting that lonely

Submitted by recaptureamerica on May 3, 2012 - 2:13pm.

Uh oh.. Getting that lonely feeling again...
Everyone, anyone having Turd site issues? Been slow loading last 5 min...probably cause Turd is onto those BasTurds

El Gordo's picture

Stay at Sams

Submitted by El Gordo on May 3, 2012 - 2:13pm.

Turd, stay at Sam's.  I'm digging in the back yard right now to unearth the coffee cans to use the egg money to buy more.  Need more time - keep that price down a little longer.

Groaner's picture

Good write up from Ron Paul

Submitted by Groaner on May 3, 2012 - 2:15pm.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ron-paul-central-bankers-are-intellectuall...

recaptureamerica's picture

Some Swiss gold out of the

Submitted by recaptureamerica on May 3, 2012 - 2:16pm.

Some Swiss gold out of the country; refineries see 'massive' demand
http://gata.org/node/11320

bbacq's picture

@Ferd, Turd: Indicies...

Submitted by bbacq on May 3, 2012 - 2:18pm.

If the index turns around, will we then be TITS-up?

I had to, despite that others *must* have planted their flag on that groaner long ago...

silver bullett's picture

Osama's Grand Plan To Destroy America

Submitted by silver bullett on May 3, 2012 - 2:21pm.

Osama's Grand Plan To Destroy America: President Biden

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/03/2012 13:04 -0400

President Obama

In celebration of the one-year anniversary of the Corzining of Osama, a stash of letters uncovered during the raid that killed the Al Qaeda mastermind uncover a truly terrifying 'grand plan'. As the NY Daily News reports, Bin Laden planned to target more airplanes at Petraeus and President Obama with the cunning plan that a successful assassination would propel an "utterly unprepared" Vice President Biden into the Oval Office - and send the US spiraling into chaos." In the aftermath of Solyndra and the realization that Biden's key economic advisor was Jon Corzine this actually sounds like a brilliant plan. The full list of 17 Bin Laden letters can be found here with English translations and the Combating Terrorism Center's report is embedded below. Luckily for all of us, it appears the weakened Al Qaeda had no means to pull off such high profile attacks and Osama even reflected on his frustration with the inability of spinoff terror groups to inflict real damage on the West. Oorah!

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