A lot of work must go into arranging a lethargic day like today.
Many many skinny fingers.
Pailin's Trading Corner
May 2, 2012 - 4:24pm
#22542
redwood wrote:
A lot of work
May 2, 2012 - 5:56pm
#22543
Time Zone trade
The time zone view from this side of the Atlantic. This chart illustrates the typical time zone fingerprint from the day session over here in Greenwich mean time.
Having traveled west all evening and overnight " Price" arrives fresh from the East dropping down into the London AM fix, before setting off up the hill to the golden palace with the magnificent view over the AM fix.
From these lofty heights as the Sun turns in the sky and invariably in time for the Pm fix. "Price" descends too a position kneeling somewhat below the morning fix. .
Heres another day not so volatile but the pattern is there.
This has been pretty consistent, playing out from one extreme to the other. This year the drop into the morning fix has started much earlier, overnight buying has dwindled significantly but the movement around the fixes seems set.
What's missing is the rest of the world pushing prices when the LME is closed.
May 2, 2012 - 6:06pm
#22544
Trying to get handle on tonight
Dan had something on increasing margins due to dodd/frank:
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2012/05/dodd-frank-strikes-commodit...
don't panic, but something is afoot; firms discussing at end of day; of course, CME member firms get the front-running opportunity...
May 2, 2012 - 6:25pm
#22545
Couldn't resist the absolute
Couldn't resist the absolute curb-stomping of GMCR (Jesus, glad I wasn't long). Bought a few hundred shares around 28.4. We'll see what happens tomorrow...
While I was at it, I bought a tranche of CHK. I fucking hate Aubrey McClendon, but that sonofabitch does have nine lives...
God, I'm becoming a scum-sucking bottom-feeder--and I'm not even a lawyer!
May 2, 2012 - 6:35pm
#22546
Margin increase
I cannot cross verify what Trader Dan is saying. I called my broker and they are not aware of anything.
I did get an e-mail about a change in margin due to Dodd-Frank, but I cannot see how this would correspond to what Trader Dan is saying.
Here is a link to the CME advisory notice:
http://www.globalfutures.com/documents/CMEGroup/Chadv12-136.pdf
Another reason I am skeptical is that a 100% increase in margin rates would have crashed the markets by now. As far as I can see, this week has seen pretty routine price action.
I'm still betting on a good bounce in gold tomorrow. (The Comex gold pit has now closed down 3 days in a row!)
May 2, 2012 - 7:29pm
#22547
RICO
just got a gander on GMCR. That's one crazy two year chart. Very gappy too.
The 2 month crash test dummie move it did in Sept-Oct. of 11' is the 'tell'.
You have a solid corrective rebound but the next leg down measures now back down to 11 which is right where it broke out from in 09' I think when they announced that they would be selling their crapola coffee thru crapola behemoth WalMart.
no doubt it will bounce along the way down like a reanimated corpse given occasional electric shocks but it deservedly is returning to the anonymity it so richly warrants. Look at the volume when they unloaded it in 11', much higher than any buying volume imo
May 2, 2012 - 8:35pm
#22548
If I thought it was headed
If I thought it was headed for $11, I wouldn't have bought it.
May 2, 2012 - 9:43pm
#22549
Charts
SI 20, flopped back over the line, resistance has become support again, need to get climb up and test next resistance around 30.75, support around 30.54.
http://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/Silver/media/366dbb60-2dda-42d0-99a4-580d03bcf5e5
GMRC daily, I like this chart, it's working well, might be hitting resistance now, definitely going to hit resistance at next line, resistance where we currently stand and then around 53.87, support around 43.48.
http://www.screencast.com/users/RandyTabit/folders/GMRC/media/19028488-a363-4614-8f6c-842c8d7e23d8
Edit: Didn't see that GMCR price dropped 40% after hours, that chart is useless.
May 2, 2012 - 10:09pm
#22550
CME margins
Good evening everyone. Looks like CME members and locals will have to post more margin. Implies contracts traded will be reduced without more collateral? Less liquidity, and apparently part of the weakness in grains today, especially the corn spreads.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/03/markets-cbot-margins-idUSL1E8G2NA020120503
Also, CME announced yesterday grains will now trade 22 hours a day, 6pm to 4pm. Big concern is market trading when the USDA reports are released. Report release times may be changed. May not be that big a deal.
May 2, 2012 - 10:37pm
#22551
Grains-Gold
Damn, Art. That sucks to hear about the higher margins. Good to see the grains will trade 22 hours though. Looking for Wheat and Corn to go as low as around 560 or so.
On the subject of gold I think I'm noticing an AB = CD pattern leading back down to 1600-1613 area.
May 2, 2012 - 11:02pm
#22552
Even though it's really of
Even though it's really of limited importance, this Dodd-Frank BS will be used to "disguise" a potentially brutal smackdown. May not happen, but I will not be long. I like CK's low 1600 target, if it happens
May 2, 2012 - 11:38pm
#22553
Yen, hogs, cocoa
Would def. be nice to see it back down there.
I've went long USD/JPY below 80. The Yen is clearly overbought short term. Expecting weakness for that currency.. at least for the short term.
Some more possible ag trades = HE , lean hogs. Seems very oversold. Cocoa looking overbought short term.
We'll see
May 3, 2012 - 3:50am
#22554
More time, less volume
Increased trading hours, plus more restrictive margin requirements, should help calm down volatility in the grains...or not!,,,nasty charts from yesterday's action, where squaring going on ahead of cme changes forced some selling?,,,I'm buying first tranche of July corn @ 6.10-6.13...looks good for 7-14 cents, but might lighten up if a quick bounce...next level of interest on adding is 6.00...meanwhile getting ready to sip whiskey & smoke a seegar on the porch this weekend...practice my patience...
GLTA
May 3, 2012 - 5:59am
#22556
AGQ pivots
No sell orders today - R2 (49.20) and R3 (50.03) looking anemic - not even sure we get that high in AGQ
Buy order set for S3 (46.71).
May the smackdown occur before 8am to get me a better price :)
May 3, 2012 - 6:55am
#22557
Crude changed coarse
Crude changed coarse again. Couldn't break out. Now we head back down. I'm watching this play out but would definitely be a buyer if we test the lower fork trend line at 102.50-103.00. It has proven itself enough to me to make me a believer that the trend is still up. Just no rocket ships.
http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/4928/05032012wti.jpg
Nat Gas is looking tempting to short. To wait for higher prices to jump in short or to wait for trend line breaks to the downside??? That is the question... Either was much patience is needed as this is most certain to test prior lows, just need to be careful not to jump in and get squeezed out. This thing ain't no metal, volatility is its middle name...
http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/3839/05032012natgas.png
Who the crap knows with gold and silver, sick of them for now. Between metals and the USDX, USD/EURO things aren't lining up to the point that I get that "click" when the hammer is pulled back and the trigger is ready to rumble. Patience, patience, patience...
May 3, 2012 - 7:49am
#22558
Oh look it's Thursday and
Oh look it's Thursday and futures are scheduled to go up according to WSJ. Is it divine intervention? That is a pun.
May 3, 2012 - 7:54am
#22559
Today's economic
Today's economic calendar:
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Durable Goods
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:30 Results of $35B, 5-Year Note Auction
12:30 PM FOMC Announcement
2:00 PM FOMC Forecast
2:15 PM Bernanke Press Conference
N.B. For entertainment purposes only unless you're really quick.
May 3, 2012 - 8:12am
#22560
awesome website
i get great info from that site every day for crude and natural gas. i cant wait til they post SP charts- says "coming soon" on the SP page
May 3, 2012 - 8:22am
#22561
@redwood, I'm seeing a
@redwood, I'm seeing a different list for the calendar
|
May 3 |
7:30 AM |
Challenger Job Cuts |
Apr |
NA |
-8.8% |
|
May 3 |
8:30 AM |
Initial Claims |
04/28 |
NA |
388K |
|
May 3 |
8:30 AM |
Continuing Claims |
04/21 |
NA |
3315K |
|
May 3 |
8:30 AM |
Productivity-Prel |
Q1 |
NA |
0.9% |
|
May 3 |
8:30 AM |
Unit Labor Costs |
Q1 |
NA |
2.8% |
|
May 3 |
10:00 AM |
ISM Services |
Apr |
NA |
56.0 |
Comments for "Pailin's Trading Corner"FREE NEWSLETTER
Keep up with the latest TF Metals Report news. Subscribe to "This Week in Turdville" today!
Feed The Turd
Hat Tips - Comments
This Month's Leaderboard
| Username | Hat Tips Earned | |
|---|---|---|
 | DrkPurpleHaze | 2632 |
 | Xty | 1740 |
 | Mr. Fix | 1673 |
 | Spartacus Rex | 1443 |
 | Bollocks | 1421 |
 | The Watchman | 1395 |
 | Cry Me A River | 1304 |
 | ag1969 | 1218 |
 | tyberious | 1026 |
 | Hammer | 857 |
__________________
I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild
Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell