Current inventory = one of each, S1 and S2 (avg cps 50.79) - sells in place for R2 (51.12) and R3 (52.77).
Buy in for S3 @ 46.17
Pailin's Trading Corner
May 1, 2012 - 7:25am
#22422
AGQ pivots
May 1, 2012 - 8:00am
#22423
2 subjects
First - the 7,500 contracts make me really curious. It is big, and it did jerk the market down but really if an entity was serious 7,500 contracts is not 'pouring it on'. IIRC we've seen 15,000+ inside a period of less than 30 minutes a few times before.
Most likely scenarios to me are: a test; an attempt to 'set' the month ending price or some similar peg to mess with the TA traders; an attempt to stimulate a fall and either buy or sell into margin calls.
Second - Pailin it's likely the crew in your thread (I find it curious that this is also your thread hahaha) are more savvy as traders than Main St. and have long ago decided that there no such thing as a free lunch. Hence very skeptical when looking at data that is too good to be true.
I've seen some questions about stops so I'll add that it is suspected that major players (the EE if you will) can see the stops and don't hesitate to gun for them. Put yours in and risk that enough traders do the same and get taken out for no good reason. Hey maybe those 7,500 contracts were all about that eh?
May 1, 2012 - 8:33am
#22425
The Comex Dump
@ Happy Now
I'm doing a bit of work on volume so that was interesting yesterday. The volume was inside one minute, which is pretty high at 750,100 ounces...what I find interesting, and I am hoping Nanex might look at it, was it a $1.24 billion dump in the one minute, or $1,240,000 x 1,000 trades by an HFT rolling the price to blow stops. Seeing that there was no follow through I am leaning towards it being a hedge fund running an algo.
It's not like the Swiss National Bank peg day, you might be right about the end of month. All this fat finger talk in the press it's like they are unaware that the markets are now mainly machines.
Someone on another site asked the interesting question whether the owners of trading platforms use, or sell, the stops of their clients to trade against. Goldman Sachs own 10% of CMC Markets which are pretty big...that whole market must be a juicy target. It really kicked in at $1,658 which would be a common stop below $1660 and then gunned for those below $1550, and got 'em.
May 1, 2012 - 9:14am
#22426
S Roche wrote:@ Happy
@ Happy Now
I'm doing a bit of work on volume so that was interesting yesterday. The volume was inside one minute, which is pretty high at 750,100 ounces...what I find interesting, and I am hoping Nanex might look at it, was it a $1.24 billion dump in the one minute, or $1,240,000 x 1,000 trades by an HFT rolling the price to blow stops. Seeing that there was no follow through I am leaning towards it being a hedge fund running an algo.
Roche - I spent many years in my career doing forecasting for consumer goods which is a different animal than commodities to be sure but when action like that happens it is unlikely an accident.
Someone on another site asked the interesting question whether the owners of trading platforms use, or sell, the stops of their clients to trade against. Goldman Sachs own 10% of CMC Markets which are pretty big...that whole market must be a juicy target. It really kicked in at $1,658 which would be a common stop below $1660 and then gunned for those below $1550, and got 'em.
That is likely illegal or at least against the rules of some commission or other.
However so is fixing gas prices.
Hence use stops at your own risk. If reading stops is taking place one is safe until there are enough stops at the same price point (or narrow range) to make a raid worthwhile. I bet that any kind of TA including using pivots would make fodder for gunning because it is pretty simple math and the home analysts would be very likely to pile into a narrow range.
May 1, 2012 - 9:41am
#22427
7500 contracts
Always, always pull the buy trigger when you see that happening. All the explanations I have read are feasible and correct ( except the fat finger bs). It is a gift when you see it happen. Know what it is and use it to your advantage. If like me, you are sitting (sometimes standing) watching the show, it is your buying opportunity. Keep some powder dry and use it to your advantage. It is the only way to turn the negative trap door int0 a positive.
GLTA
ps
In silver when I see the downdraft, I estimate 90 cents down and place my first buy there. Got that borg?
May 1, 2012 - 10:28am
#22428
Tuesday
Typical high volatility day. In tracking these Markets it is evident that if one is timing them in short frames that systems simply track news bursts. It does not feel as they try to say as if its the other way around. These are rationalizations.
Borgs and Hedgies are using sophisticated systems that are trading off key news releases and key words, this is about it. And this is what happened today in the ES. A complete and volatile reversal based in news on manufacturing which saw hot money that had been rushing into oversold space junk like GDXJ suddenly exit and enter into the ES. I simply believe that TA trails this action.
Now gold and silver are impulsing back down again (on the news) in a 3 wave pattern. the 2nd leg down is perhaps a good buy.
May 1, 2012 - 10:34am
#22429
Yup, that is precisely what I
Yup, that is precisely what I see. Late am Tuesday downtrend meeting fixed gold price setting the day before (sometimes they fix it to silver). We should see the turnaround soon. This has been Tuesday's pattern of late. The news is typically a post hoc explanation.
May 1, 2012 - 10:37am
#22430
Avi Gilburt
a friend of mine has been tracking Avi in a free trial over the last 2 days.
He has reversed his bias no less than 5 different times over this period apparently and is still 'undecided' and waiting for confirmation. This applies to his positions in Silver as well she said.
IMO his waves are attempting to track news bursts that are wagging his tail. The tail does not wag the dog but Gilburt would argue that the waves 'predict' the news. Sorry, I don't think so and in this day and age when computing is done at light speed, the trade becomes whoever reacts most rapidly to the news release in the shorter time frame.
May 1, 2012 - 10:40am
#22431
Looks like we need a new
Looks like we need a new system that tracks algo patterns. Forget TA and EW. Any contacts with MIT anyone?
Pailin your system is looking increasingly attractive.
May 1, 2012 - 10:50am
#22432
May 1, 2012 - 10:52am
#22433
news trading
impulse for ES on 5 day clearly targets first the 1410 level. However the impulse itself is news triggered, not the other way around. High volume impulse. Next target should it slice thru 1410 would be 1425-30.
this is funny stuff. Tuesday is always volatile without fail and often there are huge bounces that come off lows.
May 1, 2012 - 10:53am
#22434
Those completely demoralized
Those completely demoralized by the miners have left. Those remaining will profit from the violent upturn. Of course not in a straight line but it's already happening.
May 1, 2012 - 10:54am
#22435
Zombie Trade
Returned to life as € returns below 1.3220...out of short now after an unpleasantly long weekend hold...better luck than good management, BlackHawk, I agree, but I'll take it anyway...
May 1, 2012 - 10:55am
#22436
Granny LNG
for those interested in a momentum play.
LNG is right at potential blast area up in this intraday time frame. IMO.
May 1, 2012 - 11:01am
#22437
May 1, 2012 - 11:06am
#22438
Thanks atlee
But note the qualifier.
Surprising strong U.S. manufacturing data drove the dollar sharply higher against all of the major currencies. With most of Europe closed for May Day, the lack of liquidity triggered an unusually large reaction to a piece of economic data that normally elicits a much smaller reaction in the currency market.
The increase in the dollar was to suppress the metals, nothing else. But they sure make it sound credible don't they. Can't be since the Tuesday repetition happens no matter what the news is.
May 1, 2012 - 11:15am
#22439
yes but
stronger $ usually hurts the oil mkt in the same way it hurts metals. Not happening today.
May 1, 2012 - 11:19am
#22440
Right now it won't because
Right now it won't because commodities like metals and oil are on the upswing. But those currency moves are designed to temper their ascent. I am always struck with the regularity of their moves both daily and weekly despite what is happening in Europe, ME, or China.
For example as expected gold and silver both dipped this am, and are now recovering. I expect a nice impulse move up this pm in miners per decree. Could be wrong, so let's see.
May 1, 2012 - 11:19am
#22441
Borg
don't look now but it sure looks like theres a 2nd impulse in store down in Gold to the 1650 area.
The Borg is robotic. It is not of the flesh. It is not human. It is a program. It is cold and emotionless and void of morality. It consumes virgins and priests, the good and the bad alike. It makes no distinctions.
will be buying into the 2nd impulse down. I will dress up in my vinyl Halloween Borg outfit and make like him. Complete with plastic tubing and screw in sockets on side of head courtesy of Home Depot.
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Fair notice - modifying my system.
1. Changing daily weighting from 1/2/3 to 1/2/4. Effectively doubling down at each new pivot.
2. Now playing absolute ping pong (aka long and short). Each new day has the potential for 1/2/4 buy or sell regardless of standing inventory position. Being conservative I'm inclined to set my full short cover to Pivot or S1, at least initially. Still up in the air on this.
I'll let you guys (and BlackHawk and Padme :) know if the shorting kills me or not. Methinks not, but we'll see...
Sorry for any frustration that has come through in my messages. I've been getting hammered with PMs and it's wearing me down. Now I know why successful systems move from free to paid subscription :)
In all seriousness though, if I write you back and say 'give me a day or two', please just roll with that instead of getting testy. Thanks!
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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild
Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell