TFMR Podcast #18 - The Return of Ranting Andy

Loading the player ...

Download Podcast (Right Click + 'Save As')

Late on Thursday, I had an opportunity to visit again with "Ranting" Andy Hoffman of Miles Franklin.

When we last spoke back in December, the metals were making lows and were soon to recover. As fate would have it, in the time since, we've seen a tremendous rally that led to the "Leap Day Violation" and subsequent pressuring of the metals all the way to the lows of this past Wednesday. So, under similar circumstances to last December, Andy and I discuss market manipulation, the godforsaken miners and the question of whether silver is money.

I'm quite certain that you'll enjoy this podcast.  

TF


Comments

exiledbear's picture

Re: Silver as money

Ever wonder where the word "dollar" comes from? It comes from a famous european silver mine in the city of Joachimisthal. The silver coins from the mine were first called "Joachimisthalers". Over time that got shortened to "thaler". Fast forward a few centuries and it got turned into "dollar".

I guess it could've been shortened the other way and we could all be quoting prices in "wockars" or "jokers" instead.

In the old days, the dollar used to be called a "silver dollar" and was worth a certain amount of silver. The quarters and the dimes had silver in them too, of course, as late as 1964.

Zoltan's picture

@Indigostar7

I think this JPM move is a big deal.  It wasn't that long ago that they magically gained the status to be included in the reports.  Five million ounces is a lot in terms of the percent increase.  The 307 million that the morgue claims to hold in the SLV is the bigger skeleton in the closet.

I am very skeptical about all the numbers they provide though.  The way they do business it would suprise me if the weren't complete fabrications.  I think the physical silver backing all of the paper scams is a figment of the imagination.

They are good at kicking the can though.  I have been watching them do it for several years.  The CFTC has failed to enforce any limits or act against the ongoing price suppression.  Think back to the financially painful anniversary we are approaching.

Someday something will give in the PM market and the price will soar.  Think now that a financial scandal will end the system before any regulators step in to do their jobs.  The loss of confidence in the whole charade is palpable.

JMHO

Z

DrkPurpleHaze's picture

Zoltan

I agree. That seems like a huge and out of the ordinary move by them.

Whatever it was that just happened, it was a well considered chess move and it was meant to do something in a big way. I think we'll find out pretty soon.

Maybe things are getting tight and they're playing a shell game at this point just to show silver in another place at the same time it's supposed to be in another.

They've been at this for awhile and they're good at it.

shell-game.jpg

lakemike49's picture

colin caffeine

Welcome to the world of investing.

lakemike

R man J's picture

Punk-assets

Well said my friend. The "Kings" today are those who have the wisdom to know sound money when they see it.

To quote Mick Jagger, "if you try sometimes you get what you need"

Fred Hayek's picture

Awesome stuff, Turd!!

I love Andy Hoffman's articulate passion and knowledge of the subject.  I think he's absolutely right about the mining stocks, unfortunately.  If you hold shares of a mining stock, you have to go into the EE's casino and play the EE's game in order to get value out of that.  And once the mining stocks *finally* break out it will be soooooo much easier to just write up an official decree nationalizing them than trying to confiscate 100 ounces from this guy at his Smith, Wesson and Glock defended home and 150 ounces from that guy and his Sturm Ruger defended home etc etc around the country.  Get physical.   

Magpie's picture

@Saratoga

The Indian.  My LCS carries both, but the Indian always makes me drool.  The Liberty just looks too generic.  I think the Indian head is the only coin I've ever seen where the design is recessed into the coin instead of a raised design on top of the coin.  My LCS guy told me it was designed that way so the coins would stack nicely.  I wish I had a few just so I could see for myself!!  laugh

HardAssets's picture

Miners

I enjoyed the interview.   Thank you for that.     While  I mostly agree with what he is saying about the Miners -- I think there is also a very simple issue with them that also explains part of their lack of performance.

I think it was Jim Rickards who mentioned giving a talk to a roomful of some of the biggest institutional fund managers in the world.   He asked for a show of hands - to see if any of them owned any gold.... period.    There were NONE.   

Having watched and charted for several years - the volume and money going into the miners that make up the HUI index,  one simple thing is true -- there is relatively no one BUYING.     Yes -- there are probably algorithms controlling this sector -- but there is also no institutional interest in this sector right now.

There was an article indexed from Yahoo the other day - mentioning how gold was a bubble and was going to crash to $700.    It seems to me that a very high percentage of the major institutional fund managers probably feel the exact same way -- as the author of that article.     I'm assuming the author didn't have an agenda.   It sounded more like the ramblings of a highly educated idiot.

Anyhow -- great points made in the interview.    I will be extracting myself as much as possible from some gold miner mutual funds.    Trying to put 401K money somehow into paper representing precious metals -- is a pain in the hardASSets.

Love this joint.    Short time lurker, first time poster.

johnnydow's picture

Afraid of his own shadow

Eric Original's picture

PM reply

I had a little comment in a PM thread about this.  Had my dander up enough to figure it might as well go here too.  Just to "stir the pot" a little bit.

I was pretty disappointed to hear Turd just nodding along with Andy on the whole "stay out of the miners" meme.

I don't think it's nearly as bad as Andy is making it out to be.  And even if it were, that does not mean that miners cannot be traded. It does not mean that miners cannot be bought low and sold high.  Look at January and February.  It was spectacular.

If you are determined to stay out of any market that you think is manipulated, then where would you go?  Can't do miners.  Can't do gold or silver.  Can't touch anything to do with oil.  Can't touch the S & P 500.  Sit in cash?  What is more manipulated than currencies?  I guess all you could do is pay off your house, fill the basement with food, and never even go outside.  Fuck that.

Also, is it any surprise that a guy who works for a bullion seller says stay out of miners?  The guy is talking his book.  I'm not saying he's being disingenuous, because maybe he got that job because that's what he really believes, but still....

Xty's picture

I agree

Talking about this last night at home - yes, I believe the risk of nationalization is real, but I do not think we are there yet - and as you say, what is one to do with money one wants to try to invest in something other than physical metals?   I am psychologically unable to buy bank stocks, or other things that have been roaring (I own one Appl share on behalf of my daughter - I am the idiot who sold the other four to buy PSLV) - but the metals are pretty much the only sector I have confidence in, and they are hugely cheap right now.  So it is either the opportunity of a lifetime, or a disaster - but my downside is not enormous because I do not leverage anything, and the upside could be huge.  We have been sweating a bit, but hey - life is exciting.

I know pure stackers will jump out of the wood work, but I have a foot in both worlds right now - hedging bets all over the place!

Cerote's picture

Since Bashing Bernanke is Never Off-Topic...

http://dailyreckoning.com/an-unexpected-new-growth-industry-for-retired-...

Just too bad BHO & Hillary think there's too much money in MJ to legalize it, even for medical. 

Xty's picture

Cerote - just directing traffic here

great post - drop it on the Latest from Sprott thread - morning crowd (i.e. me) seems to be there, mostly.  It was like whack-a-mole for awhile.

Fulgurite's picture

Thanks Turd, good

Thanks Turd, good interview!

Just a quick question, are these Podcasts also downloadable on iTunes somewhere?

I'm not a big tech freak and I would like to somehow move these Podcasts on my iPhone.

Many thanks for any inputs!

GoldMania3000's picture

GoldMania Rant

Ranting Andy's analysis of the miners is not even an analysis and can't be taken seriously.  All the talk about don't go into miners on these board don't come from a place of knowledge or experience.   It's only what people think, believe or feel based on what they think is going to happen.  How many of you that speak against miners including Andy live and breath them every day and understand the business side of the miners.  Ok Andy was in the business..i hear you, but he didn't go into any of the dynamics that can make people a lot of money.  He doesn't provide the perspective of where the good miners are, who the good people are, where the interesting geology is in the world today, who are the ones on the verge of discoveries, what are the margins looking like on some of the juniors/junior producers, etc.  Yeah the mining business is tough and as Rick Rule has said "90% of the juniors out there are worth 0".  You have to know where the 10% are to make money.. Andy just swept right through that...There's a lot of money to be made in these miners, if you find the people that know what they are talking about.   O the HUI..it's manipulated...but you are going to buy some July calls...Are you doing any service to people who wish to explore to make more money and tell them where to go to find these opportunities. NO! Just BS which pisses me off.  If these boards are about true education then it behooves us to provide points of opportunities in the PM market including miners and where to go to FIND THE PEOPLE THAT NOW ABOUT MINERS..Again, all the folks that speak against the miners don't know what they are talking about. That's a fact!

Why hasn't anyone spoken about 2002 -that bear market where if you look closely you will find that if you invested you would have made a killing. I haven't heard anyone talk about the past 30 years and the various cycles that have played out in the natural resource sector/mining sector whereby we have seen ups and downs..and if you were in on the downs you made a lot of money onthe UPSs.   Is where we are currently with the miners any different from some of those other downs? "o it's manipuliated...right"   You haven't looked at the past..

Sinclair, Embry, Sprott, Rule have said time and time again, where the real money is going to be made..but Randy Andy is not on that side...I'm going along with the people who have made 100's of millions and in some cases billions of $s for themselves. AND who have made many of their clients millionaires.   Who on this board has helped people become millionaires? I haven't made a Fricken dime on any analysis provide on this board, and from all the crap hole newsletter writers.    But Rick Rule's company has...because they provide "Right Analysis", they are the experts that talk about risk/reward, that understand the geology of a project, understand where the hot spots are, understand what it's going to take to make money on a mine.

HUI--i don't own any of them now, but they are very compelling to start buying, i own the mid-tier juniors, prospect generators, take over targets.  Can RAnting Andy or Turd name the take over targets.  Do you know that Goldfields and Newmont are speaking to a specific miner in West Africa right now about taking over a miner at a specific price that if you are into right now you are going to make good money.  Do Turd and Ranting andy know that this mine is one of the best prospect around. Have they visited the property and reviewed the drill hole results and understand the grads, and cut offs and margins.  Have you done your service to provide this information to those that could make money.  No! Why, because you are not specialist in this area and not seeking to find this information out.   

STACK = yes to preserve you wealth. Not to become more wealthier. If they tax the miners, one day they will tax the stackers too and even confiscated your/our stack. 

O nationalization--did anyone provide the perspective of Brent cook when Andy brought up the act of nationalization in Argentina on the oil front.    Did anyone explain that the business of oil and gold mining are different. Could it happen...I just heard one perspective and not the other perspectives. 

I'm fine with different points of view being presented, but when the analysis is flawed it must be called out.  When the analysis is self-serving and is just glossed over then I poo poo it.  

I guess the successful people, like rick rule and erick sprott will lose most of their money based on Andy, but I doubt they will listen to Andy.

For those that are interesting in making real money listen to this. http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour.  Then contact SprottUSA and have a conversation with them  They actually have an offer to evaluate your portfolio for free...buy, hold, sell.  Why not talk to people and hear them out..And judge for yourself. Understand risk/reward...

ReachWest's picture

Podcast

@Fulgurite: You can download the file as a Podcast file, by right clicking on the link below the Podcast. Then just open the downloaded file with iTunes... or manually move it into your iTunes window and you should then be able to sync it up on your iPhone. If you're using a Mac - right click on the link and select "Open in iTunes".

Great Interview, Turd!. [Thanks Andy]

GoldMania3000's picture

Get Ready Eric Original

Xeno's picture

Run For Cover

It's becoming clearer if this story is accurate, run for cover.

It might be a good idea to cover your miner shorts, buy physical, buy good mining stocks, and buy now.

London to become major offshore trading center for Chinese Yuan.

London is set to become a major offshore trading center for the yuan, as Britain teams up with Hong Kong to develop such business. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) and the UK Treasury on Monday agreed to launch a private-sector forum to strengthen links between Hong Kong and London in such areas as clearing and settlement, market liquidity and the development of new yuan-denominated products, the HKMA said in a news release.

http://www.chinasourceandsupply.com/News/china-source-supply-news-item.aspx?id=35042246-d98a-41ee-8cf2-026cef7e21a9

Fred Hayek's picture

Wow, the emotional reactions

I think some of the folks responding passionately to Andy don't seem to have really taken in all that he was saying.

I think he agrees that mining stocks *should* be great investments right now.  And up until some time in 2010, they were tracking upward along with PM prices.  And then the EE just completely committed itself to attacking the mining stocks.  And since then, while the sludge of the S&P 500 has had an effortless, low volume meltup and PM prices have gone higher, the mining stocks have had their prices hammered downward.

He said he had a huge proportion of his money invested in mining stocks but despaired at the intervention and got out.  

I don't think he's denying the real value of the mining stocks but simply saying that they're easier to manipulate than the price of actual PM's.  If they attack the price of silver and, as some people ridiculously forecast, drove it down to $24 an ounce, there would be massive physical buying which they could not accommodate.  But if they drive the price of a mining stock down similarly, maybe there's some increase of demand but they just throw some more naked shorts at it and they never have to deliver any particular goods.  

And if you listen to this and other interviews he's done, he predicts that, at some point, when the price of PM's breaks free, the price of the mining stocks will break free.  

But holding a stock is still a paper asset.  To all the folks holding mining stocks, do you trust your brokerage firm?  Have you gotten all your shares registered in your name?  If you haven't taken the latter step, your shares are probably, right this moment, being used to short the price of . . your shares!  If you absolutely must hold shares of mining stocks, get them registered in your name.  This was a big topic on line a month or so ago.  Please look it up.  If your shares aren't registered in your name then the brokerage can play all sorts of games with them, rehypothecation and even the professed base for shorting your own stocks.  

But, I believe Andy's said in other interviews that he thinks there will only be a narrow window in which someone holding mining stocks will be able to realize profits.  Mining companies are simply a much easier target for the plundering of resources than individual citizens. 

It shouldn't be this way but it is.  

Patriot Family's picture

No appetite for miners? How about AR-15s?

Quote from prior comment:  "If you are determined to stay out of any market that you think is manipulated, then where would you go? Can't do miners. Can't do gold or silver. Can't touch anything to do with oil. Can't touch the S & P 500. Sit in cash? What is more manipulated than currencies? I guess all you could do is pay off your house, fill the basement with food, and never even go outside."

You could go into AR-15's, AKs and pretty much any type of LEO or military style weapon or good quality ammo.  I wouldn't put it past these items to appreciate rapidly in the mania that will ensue once the election fever starts in earnest.   If you live in a state that allows for easy exchanges of firearms on the used market, you can always offload them if you decided not to hang onto them.

Monedas's picture

Andrew "Hoffy" Hoffman & Turd "Turd" Ferguson....!

....Bring home the Bacon !  I waive my restriction against long posts and interviews on a one time basis !    Monedas   1929    Comedy Jihad Short Attention Span   devil

DrkPurpleHaze's picture

Precious Metals Battleground

The Battle for Price Discovery rages on...

The SpeakEasy, news, music/movie vids, eye candy etc...

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forums/frivolity-forum

TeaDrinker's picture

Gold and Silver are Money - Yes Obvious

Gold and Silver are money, yes, yes,yes.  Of course but in what form.

1. Not in coin form that you may find in circulation as change from the local market.

2. Should there be any silver content in lets say a half Dollar coin.  I would STACK IT and so would any sane person!

3. If Silver were in circulation then Apple would melt it and return as a crappola computer/i phone etc in short order.

4. You will not see Silver in any currency, it is too precious.

5. KEEP STACKING.

6. I live in Europe.  It is not that bad here, we are a forgiving outward looking people.  Let them have their financial crisis' and we will will carry on. if not with them. then without them.

7. Skeptic is incorrect, the correct spelling it is Sceptic.  There is a subtle difference, the 'c' instead of a 'k' implies a something benign and that is one reason why London  gets away with robbery.  It is how you say it.

p.s. My grandfather went to Harrisburg, PA in the twenties, returned to the Forest of Dean in the thirties and promptly got shoved back down the coal mine as that ratbag Hitler brought Europe into conflict. Never again please.

Xty's picture

TeaDrinker

maybe you are right, and Europeans will trade pieces of paper with fictional buildings on them forever.  But it seems highly likely that the European Union is headed for break-up - what then the Euro?  Do you trust the ECB?  Why?

Xty's picture

silver is too precious to use as currency?

Sorry, can't leave this alone.  So you want a currency without value?  You admit you would remove any silver from circulation - why do you think others want your paper or digital crap?  They do now, but they didn't a few decades ago.  I remember money that did have value and that is what I want again.  When 'they' have 'their' financial crisis, the Euro will be worthless.

TeaDrinker's picture

Xty

No more than you trust the 'Fed' I guess.

The EU may break up financially but we are so intertwined and intermingled that sense will prevail.

I was brought up being bombed by the IRA however have have many Irish friends and colleagues.  we are above all that crap.

Love and Peace. 

DrkPurpleHaze's picture

Metal, Paper Or Plastic?

I think we'll go to a plastic debit/credit card electronic currency at some point. 

Unless something drastic happens that renders the ability to process and access computers and their networks safely or effectively happens beforehand. For example, a cyber attack or satellite outage that renders electronic transactions vulnerable or incapable of being conducted would not make that possible. 

If the world moves forward relatively smoothly then I think plastic is the way the world will go. It's not hard for me to envision a card for each country that looks a bit like that countries most recent currency and has some 'golden' element or look to it because it'll be backed by  virtual gold that everyone trusts is in place by their CB for any of this to take place. At some point, trust in something will need to happen. Like it or not, that very trust is still in play today (although eroding) because I have paper in my pockets right now whether I believe in it or not as having true value. 

GLD and SLV are almost like test pilots for using paper instead of physical metals. People have poured BILLIONS into those two paper funds for years now. At some point we'll trust (somewhat) whatever the various Govt.s or IMF  come up with and what direction they take with any radical currency move in the future. If we stay stable societally then we evolve to plastic from paper the same way that people evolved somewhat from metal coins to paper. I'm not sure that actually was de-evolution, currency wise.

Time will tell.

TeaDrinker's picture

Xty

I take your point, the Euro is a busted flush.

Where that takes us, who knows.

I live under the UK Sterling umbrella however it may as well be the Euro, we are as one really.

Europe is a high technology zone and this gives me hope.  Check out some quality stuff that you may see wizzin' past your window.

I quietly stack PMs as I have an inherent distrust of governance.

I loudly support my fellow worker.

Europe is the the most fascinating place on this planet.  Come over and have looksee.

punchbowl's picture

Europe is the the most fascinating place on this planet?

What? Is this a joke?

More fascinating than Angkor Wat, Taj Mahal, the Amazon, Sulawesi, Africa?

Haven't seen all of Europe but lived in France for 2 years.  Out of 35 countries visited France ranks 35th and the other European countries (and the US) rank in that vicinity as far as what would be considered fascinating. 

What do you consider fascinating?

Xty's picture

If you trust the Euro as much as I trust the fed

then you don't trust it at all.  You assume I am American, and that I have never been to Europe.  The world is a rather large place and I have seen some of it, including being born in England and living there for some time as a teenager.  I have learned math with pounds, shillings and pence.  Took my O levels.  What is the need for a resume?  We are talking ideas - if I had only ever been to the moon it would be irrelevant to the question of sound money.  I talk about the fed because that is what we were talking about.  We can talk about the Bank of Canada if you wish.

IS7 - the problem is trust.  Some new form of banking will have to emerge, and I think it will have to be private to gain trust.  We may see digital and plastic that way.  Or new governments - who will have to have something in their pocket other than an IMF loan.  I don't foresee mad max, but I can imagine a transitional phase, where people remember Confederate dollars, etc., and are unwilling to accept fiat.  There are many examples (obviously) of currencies no longer in circulation - to think it will never happen (and I know you don't think this) is wrong.  The timing is the problem.  We might have to live under this for a lot longer - I don't wish apocalypse, but the numbers are rising fast.  The US blew through a trillion dollars mighty fast, and the 'money' the IMF raised the other weekend vanished into the slime.

Syndicate content Comments for "TFMR Podcast #18 - The Return of Ranting Andy"