The Greased Pig

Isn't it funny how the brain works? I start out this morning by looking at a few charts of the POSX. Next, I'm looking at a chart of crude. I begin thinking about writing a post regarding a "greasy pig" and, before I know it, I'm watching this video. Out here in the sticks, nestled between Nowhere and Bumfuk, the locals find amusement at such simple things. Maybe you will, too.

So, anyway, back to the charts that started all of this earlier. As I said, I'm apparently one of the few "analysts" who is still watching the POSX. Seems there's hardly much discussion about it these days. A false sense of complacency perhaps? Perhaps, and with so many folks concerned now with Spain, France and the EU in general, maybe The Pig is set for another leg higher. However, with the metals making what appear to be such obvious bottoms, perhaps ole Pigatha can provide some impetus for a price recovery.

Take a look at these charts. Note first that on the hourly chart, The Pig is firmly entrenched in a down channel and has been for the last two weeks. This is such a prominent and obvious trend that it may take something dramatic for it to break out in the short term. Why is a short term breakout important/vital? Well, take a look at the daily chart beside it. The index now sits right atop the trendline from the lows last August that were made prior to the announcement of Operation Twist. A breakdown through the trendline would indicate a minimum drop to 78 and, if 78 fails, a drop back toward 75 or even the all-important 73. Also note that a case could be made that The Pig has already broken down through the line. (This is the lighter pink line on the chart.)

paper_4-26ampigh.jpgpaper_4-26ampigd_0001.jpg

Another major indicator that has reached a critical point is crude. Take a close look at the daily chart below. IF crude can break higher here and move back through $105, it will signal the beginning of a new UPtrend and set a target of at least $110, if not $115. However, if it fails at this level, it will drop back to at least $101 and, failing there, will have a go at $98. Watch this closely the next few days.

paper_4-26amcrude.jpg

As you might imagine, I am very relieved by the action the metals since late yesterday. It was so clearly obvious that they had to be bought at $30 and $1630 but, with things the way they are post-MFG, it's increasingly nerve-wracking to stick my neck out and urge a trade. At $1655 and $31, I'm very excited about our prospects from here but I would strongly urge anyone who bought yesterday to apply some stops at yesterday's lows. Today, we saw selling into the London PM fix at 10:00 am EDT but have since seen a further rally. The next critical level in gold is 1660 and for silver it is the old support level of 31.00-31.35. Moving back through and closing above those levels would be very encouraging and would likely cause an extension of the rally as more nervous, weak-handed shorts continue to cover.

If you have some time today, you should read the items linked below. First, our pal Jim Quinn has released part 2 of his current series. http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=33585 And your other assignment is to read the text of this speech to the NY Fed by Robert Wenzel. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/robert-wenzel-addresses-new-york-fed-lots-head-scratching-ensues. Like Jim Grant last month, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/must-read-jim-grant-crucifies-fed-explains-why-gold-standard-best-option, Wenzel blasts away at our fuzzy-headed monetary masters. Why the Fed pretends to be interested in all of this is beyond me. I imagine they are just attempting to patronize their critics and, once they leave the building, they simply laugh off the criticism, if they even listened at all.
 

Finally, I'll be recording this week's podcast later today. Given the increasingly blatant manipulation of the PMs, I thought I'd ring up Ranting Andy again in order to have him explain, in greater detail, how The Cartels coordinate and implement their attacks. If any of you have specific questions you'd like me to pose to Andy, please include them in the comments section of this post. I likely won't be able to ask all of them but I'll certainly pick a few. Thanks in advance for your input.

I hope everyone has a fun day. Keep your fingers crossed for a move back above 1660 and 31.   TF

237 Comments

Cleburne61's picture

You guys are right

And I know it....it's always nice to hear the stories about "the big one that got away", but it's just never as fun to live through them. ;)

God is good.  Y'all are nice to be encouragers.  Thanks for that.

atarangi's picture

Change works in mysterious ways - - -

obama_tough_on_china_will_surrender_to_p

atarangi's picture

Last of the big time spenders - - -

public_debt_washington_to_bush_vs_obama.

johnboatcat's picture

I don't know why everybody is making such a fuss

about a bunch of shrimp with deformed heads.  You pull them off before you eat them anyway don't you? :-)

SilverWealth's picture

Spanish downgraded

Spain just got downgraded a little while ago after market.

The dollar should bounce and rally now.

Risk on is off again probably. Someone alert Dan Norcini. Keep ropes and sharp objects away from him please.

Whenever I see a post here that makes fun of the dollar I sense its set for a bounce. These markets are literally day to day to day because the vectors of news  influence are coming from all directions like nothing I have ever seen before.

Ferd Torgerson's picture

@ johnboatcat; Re: Insurance Consult

John:

I try to stay out in front of all my prospective clients' insurance needs.  Your requirement poses a special challenge since I cannot reasonably be expected to know when the cloud might hit.

I can offer you the below costume for $500 US.  It won't do anything to prevent discomfort but your wearing this should provide hours of endless amusement to you and your friends and family when the cloud moves through your neighborhood.  I can give a volume discount for multiple purchases at $400 US each should you want to host a neighborhood cookout when the event occurs.

Hope this addresses your needs.

Ferd

Xty's picture

Ferd

I am afraid my head might explode. Can I get coverage for this?

The Body's picture

@ I know the answer to this

I always enjoy reading Jim Willie's stuff... I am guessing this means that J.W. is a turdite of sorts!?  Nice.

Halo's picture

The Daily Rant

Dr G's picture

SilverWealth has the scoop.

SilverWealth has the scoop. Spain downgrade = dollar up tomorrow = metals down? Me thinks so. Just as an attack on the trendlines was coming. Ugh.

And I honestly and truly cannot believe they didn't hold the downgrade until Friday after hours per the usual games they play.

No worries. As Sinclair says, I am my own central bank. Gold and silver and lead. My rating is AAA+.

atarangi's picture

Latest brilliant read from James Quinn - - -

"The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out ... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable."      -   -       http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34331.htmlMencken_image008.jpg

exiledbear's picture

I will be highly amused if we closethe week at 1660 - again

1660, 1660, 1660, 1660, 1640, 1658, ?

I would like for the record to play something else besides 1660, but it's not my world, I just live in it.

Dr G's picture

I'm in need of ranting, so

I'm in need of ranting, so I'm going to do it here. Sorry if it makes you want to go to sleep. I'm on FIRE about it.

Did some work on multiple patients (20+ patients) over a year ago. All patients had Medicaid. Medicaid paid for the work BUT PAID ANOTHER DOCTOR AT ANOTHER OFFICE IN ANOTHER CITY.

I can't get Medicaid to recoup the erroneous payments and pay me. It's simply a lost cause. Tens of thousands of dollars out the window. I can't even get our Medicaid rep to help us. They are completely clueless. They say we have to have the original claim numbers in order to get paid. I explain we have no claim numbers because they were sent to another office. They say they can't give us those claim numbers because it is a patient confidentiality violation. Never mind that they PAID ANOTHER OFFICE and shared all that information WITH ANOTHER OFFICE. They treat us like this is somehow our fault. Amazing that in this case Medicaid is committing FRAUD on itself.

So that's the state of our $hitty healthcare system. The next time you go to visit your doctor or dentist or nurse or whatever, maybe you'll understand why they are in a bit of a foul mood. It's because I have to fight the government all day to get payment for work I did 14 months ago.

Sorry.

SilverRunNW's picture

Dr G. : Scoop.... Well, Maybe

SilverWealth's post was reasonable concerning the dollar, but throwing trash in Dan Norcini's way is complete bull$hit!   That's the second time he's talked smack about Dan on main street.

He's decent at chart reading, but I'm disgusted with the sidebar $hit. 

Ferd Torgerson's picture

@ xty

Sorry, don't offer policies on exploding heads, either.  However, one AGE will get you one of these to hold things in place until the crisis has passed.

Ferd

Fred Hayek's picture

@Victor . . Every european saves in gold?!

I've been away from the computer all day.  In the previous thread, you said that every european saves in gold.  That was ridiculous.  If you don't back off from that ridiculous hyperbole, I really have to take your words a bit less seriously.  

Dr G's picture

He can't voice an opinion

He can't voice an opinion about Trader Dan? It's comical. It's funny. Most times it is witty.

Geez, sometimes it's like the MSM around here but OPPOSITE. The PMMSM (Precious Metals Main Stream Media).

We all need to lighten up when it comes to our beloved analyst all-stars. They are fallible and many of them are downright goofy. Hair Fleckenstein anybody?

johnboatcat's picture

Thank you Ferd for the offer

but I already have one of those, even though I don't wear it much.  My wife says it makes my butt look fat.  Especially after Taco Bell breakfast specials.  With no insurance, and not being able to wear the outfit, I guess I will just have to go bare!

SaratogaPrepper's picture

Big Buffalo Re:Monarch

It was with trepidation (looked that one up, hope I spelled it right) that I heard your warning about Monarch PM and their 90% silver coins. I was expecting a "test" batch today. Just opened and maybe it's the types of junk that I had ordered because mine were fine. I personally have given up on standing & walking liberty's and anything Barber unless I'm able to pick them out at the LCS. I received some Franklins, Roosevelts, Kennedys and Washingtons today and they were all ones that I would have picked out myself.

5 days from order to nowheresville NY. 

Just my experience.

Louis Cypher's picture

Waaaaaay off topic but

How to extract Gold from your old computer scrap using household chemicals

www.screwtapefiles.blogspot.com

bbacq's picture

Thoughts from the past...

Bastiat seems to have figured it out a long time ago.

"All that I have aimed at [in this work] is to put you on the right track, and to make you acquainted with the truth that all legitimate interests are in harmony [his emphasis]."

"For some time it has been the fashion to laugh at what has been called the social problem... now [the] solution, you will at once see, must be different according as men's interests are held to be naturally harmonious or naturally antagonistic.

In the one case, we must seek for the solution in Liberty - in the other, in Constraint.  In the one case we have only to be passive - in the other we must necessarily offer opposition.

But Liberty assumes only one shape.  Once convinced that each of the molecules that compose a fluid possesses in itself the force by which the general level is produced, we conclude that there is no simpler or surer way of seeing that level realized than not to interfere with it.  All, then, that set out with this fundamental principle, that men's interests are harmonious, will agree as to the practical solution of the social problem - to abstain from displacing or thwarting these interests."

Brilliant stuff, written long ago and more relevant today than ever...

exiledbear's picture

I lived in Nederland for a year

And although they are frugal, I didn't see any goldbugs while I was there. They pretty much are savings-and-checking account kind of people - they use their debit cards instead of credit cards, but that's about it. There's chip-and-pin, but that's just another form of debit, not really worth explaining.

I doubt France and Germany are much different, but I have no direct experience of those places.

No gold coin shops I saw at all. If I wanted to buy some gold or silver bullion coins, I didn't see it while I was bouncing back and forth between Rotterdam and Den Haag.

I suspect the elite in europe, they are the ones into gold.

cpnscarlet's picture

Dr G - Sympathy and Result

Time for Cpn to share the story of the end of my aerospace/defense contractor career -

On that last day, I needed help from a security officer (gov't civilian) to get a classified package wrapped up and ready to be hand-carried off the base. In the past, people like me could do most of this, but since 2001, the amount of trust in non-gov't workers is about nil and we must rely on the gov't security officers to do it. On this day when I asked for help (for the second time in 3 days), I was basically told to F'off by a man who was a high school grad ex E-4 and in charge of security for an Air Force facility I helped establish 22 years ago. I am an ex O-3 and have two engineering degrees. I think I deserve a little more respect than that. My patience with the whole situation was ended. I quit the next day.

The US Federal Gov't is not only bloated, it is out-of-control, without a defined mission, and accountable to no one on many levels. You lost $10K+, I lost my career. I still consider my lot better than working for a gov't run by a f**king COMSYMP. I hope someday you'll feel the same.

Driven81's picture

HOUSE HAS APPROVED CISPA

Battle Beagle's picture

The Silver Megathrust

Please check out this outstanding article on the true supply demand situation for silver.

http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-megathrust

Kuchek's picture

Jim Grant been posted yet?

atarangi's picture

@Battle Beagle - - -

Outstanding article you just posted. Good to see some common sense info. on silver.       The fundamentals are in place for silvers moon shot  -  it's just a question of patience.

¤'s picture

Pigs (ungreased)

R man J's picture

Sold some miner stocks...

...AND PURCHASED A COUPLA PRE  '33 GOLD COINS FROM Provident.

Nice pricing. I will name one of the coins "Ranting" and the other "Andy".

So It Goes's picture

Silver head and shoulders

I just noticed this.

Sorry I cannot post the charts for comparison or if this has already been noted.

If you overlay the head and shoulders patterns for spot silver from Oct 09 to Aug 10 and Oct 11 to now - they are identical.

(Perhaps some industrious Turdite can post this).

IF this is a history repetition (and I remember how frustrating sitting through the prior H + S shoulders pattern was)

Then we are now at the launching point for silver.  

TIME FOR ALL IN?

All I know is keep stacking!

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