Pailin's Trading Corner

Sentiment is horrible.  Expectations are low.  Shorts are gleeful.  I am backing up the truck long GC and SI today.   I will buy more if it goes down.

when he finishes speaking is when the real fornicating begins.

all the slow pitches have been served up. When he asks for question there should be none so we can quickly get back to the pillaging and raping of the American public.

New line of "Bernanke Boxers" with "Too Big To Fail" embroidered on front...

Brand extension: "Non-Standard Tool"

Didn't know Ben Bernankovich Varga would be speaking today. I think will be constrained below 30.60 until after his sham Q&A session is over then drift up overnight.

Well gentleman - I pretty much blew up my trading account today.  Painful - but fortunately, nothing that I couldn't loose.

I am going to take a step back - some time away from this market.  My feeling is that we may have one more sizable drop - but I believe that we are near a significant bottom.  I am going to hold on to my physical stack - so I am staying long. (May contemplate selling a portion depending on what happens - I was encouraged by today's action - but who knows how long that will last).

I want to thank you all for your postings here - I have enjoyed them thoroughly, and I believe that I have picked up a few things here and there (A lot about what not to do).  I will continue to lurk here - I want to encourage all of the more veteran members to keep it up, I think there is a lot of value in the various opinions posted on this board.

Thanks for putting up with me, happy trading to all!

Aren't these PE's low?  I'm not a stock trader, but I was investigating the HUI vs gold disconnect and this was one of the things I stumbled upon.

I'm not suggesting these necessarily as good buys.  I know very little about mining stocks.

I'm thinking more that the HUI vs gold price disconnect (which started March, 2011) is stretched very wide.

One side or the other is going to have to give.  Honestly, I'm not 100% sure which side is going to win.  But either gold/silver is coming down a lot more, or the miners are a great buy.  I think it is dangerous to assume which is going to win.

It seems that long miners + short gold would be a good bet.  But I just won't touch the miners with more than table scraps.  Too dangerous if you asked me.

The other indicator that is very interesting is a graph posted by Trader Dan:

The point which immediately grabbed my attention in this chart is that the last time we had a spike down in Fall 2008 was a fantastic time to buy miners and gold and silver.  But as SW says, "careful catching the falling pianos".

Gold 1776,

A lot of good traders got their asses kicked playing this metal/miner game . It's been brutal, really since Sept 2011.  Come back when the trend reverses.  There will be money to be made. And you won't have to do it with 3 am trades or borg generated pivots.

Good luck.

1776 I know the feeling. This market is baffling. Everyone and their mother was thinking we get another big leg down today and that is of course why it went up. What your doing is the smart thing and I support it.

GDX has rallied now to where it had broken down a couple of days ago. So tomorrow open is important. If it continues to run and the ES breaks out above 1390 then the interpretation of the Groom of the Banksters' Stool by the Market is bullish and can give momentum for an up cycle.

Will sell into any gap up in the morning thought  what I bought today. Then will watch and wait. GDX has consistently sold off any small gap ups over the last 2 months.  This is very tiresome and not worthy of much time, unfortunately going forward, the money to be made will be in miners because they are the ones that are most hated and most undervalued and most difficult to stay with. It will always be the most difficult trade that will yield the greatest reward and they should out shine bullion by far in any bounce. I sold a lot of miners over the last 2 days to stand aside. This is the game. Right now I think we get a bounce but that is all and then the trend down continues. Because I think this I must be prepared for the precise opposite to happen for the first time in months. Have I mentioned how tiresome and drawn out all this is?  

Sold most of LNG into the inevitable move up today off its typical fright wig floor. It may very well gap up over highs in the morning. I have seen it behave like that before. Play dead, roll over, violate technical pts, sweep techie stops brutally and then turn and boner up likes it starring in a porn film.

80% of all of this is HFT Borg movement. Soon enough there will be few home retail traders. We are a dying breed of miscreants and low liers.

Simplifying I checked the volume at stockcharts.

This is a good swing change for GDX and GDXJ.

Biggest volume upmove for GDX since January 25 other than the same volume on around the 12th of April. That is almost 60 trading days and finally some good volume coming in. We will know tomorrow if we get follow thru. We did not get follow thru on the 12th obviously but this time the action is more credible because it is coming off of FOMC which is often a cycle reversing event.

Same for GDXJ. 2nd best up volume day since Jan 23. GLD has a nice long tail on its candle on good volume.

If an upcycle begins then target is 50 day resistance at 50.25 area GDX and 25 for GDXJ. Who knows?