Waiting on The Bernank
On a day where not much is happening ahead of the FOMC and The Bernank, what in the world does a Turd write about? Fortunately, Turd has friends who can help him out of this predicament.
First up, I spent a considerable amount of time this morning getting caught up with my new pal, Winston. It's such a dull day globally that he was able to spare some time. Apparently, even London physical trading is very quiet today and Winston estimated that less than 10% of all trades were "real", the rest being simple HFT paper trades attempting to game stop orders and the like. Even physical buyers in London, who have been accumulating on nearly every fix recently, were on standby today but he suspects that won't last for long. One last nugget he shared with me...In Shanghai overnight, the backwardation in silver of spot versus the front-month on the Comex reached over $1. In other words, though paper silver may be trading at $30.80 in NY, someone was willing to pay nearly $32 for physical silver in Shanghai earlier today. Hmmmm. I'll let you draw your own conclusions regarding that.
Next, I'd like to highlight two, terrific bits of information from your fellow Turdites that were written into the comments of the previous post. The first is from SRSRocco. Steve does a fantastic job of digging into the fundamentals and uncovering the truth, be it about gold, silver, crude, whatever. It's the kind of work I'd like to do but my ADHD prevents me from even attempting it.![]()
THE NEGATIVE NEWS FLOODGATES ON SILVER ARE NOW WIDE OPEN
As I sit here and read comments on this blog as well as articles on silver, I see a trend taking place. Silver investor sentiment is hitting rock bottom (maybe will fall even more) and the psychology is now in the HANDS OF THE FED & MEMBER BANKS. They have done a very neat trick this past year using all methods of manipulation and negative hit pieces on silver in the MSM. You don't need alot because you get BRAIN DEAD ANALYSTS who come in behind to fill in the rest.
I am simply amazed at what I see. I have been in silver since 2002, and have never looked back. In the past 10 years I have seen silver bug extremes. As I see the reports coming out about higher comex inventories, low premiums, low silver eagle sales, and etc, the sentiment falls even further. It is a NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP and it is working HOOK LINE and SINKER.... just as the FED designed.
Here is a typical part of an article about silver:
Demand for silver fell in 2011 for the first year in four as Europe’s debt crisis sapped industrial use of the metal found in solar panels and photography, Thomson Reuters GFMS said in a report on April 19. The decline in ETP assets yesterday drove holdings to the lowest level since August.
“The price drop drives fund selling and that in turn drives prices even lower,” said Sun Yonggang, an analyst at Everbright Futures Co., a unit of China’s largest state-owned investment group. “Silver isn’t holding up as well as gold because it is still primarily an industrial metal.”
---------------------------------------------
Demand for silver fell in 2011.... that's the big line there. Let's take a look at GFMS newest 2011 chart on silver demand:
World Silver Supply and Demand (million ounces)
(totals may not add due to rounding)
Supply
| 2010 | 2011 | |
| Mine Production | 751.4 | 761.6 |
| Net Government Sales | 44.2 | 11.5 |
| Old Silver Scrap | 228.7 | 256.7 |
| Producer Hedging | 50.4 | 10.7 |
| Implied Net Disinvestment | - | - |
| Total Supply | 1074.7 | 1040.6 |
Demand
| 2010 | 2011 | |
| Fabrication | ||
| Industrial Applications | 500.0 | 486.5 |
| Photography | 72.1 | 66.1 |
| Jewelry | 167.4 | 159.8 |
| Silverware | 51.2 | 46.0 |
| Coins & Medals | 99.4 | 118.2 |
| Total Fabrication | 890.1 | 876.6 |
| Producer De-hedging | - | - |
| Implied Net Investment | 184.6 | 164.0 |
| Total Demand | 1074.7 | 1040.6 |
In 2010 silver demand as 890 million ounces. What's funny is if you go to their website, you will notice that their total 2010 demand figures were 878 million oz. Somehow they adjusted their 2010 figures higher by 12 million ounces. If they revise figures each year, will 2011 turn out higher?? Who knows. Furthermore, the Fabrication demand in their old 2010 figures was 487 million. They revised it up to a cool round figure of 500 million.
The interesting thing to note is the IMPLIED NET INVESTMENT (this just means total investment). They state that there was actually less investment buying of silver in 2011 than 2010. How can that be if Coin & Medals (most official coins such as Eagles & Maples) were up from 99.4 million to 118.2 million?
The answer to that question is this.... GFMS has to make sure that the TOP SUPPLY FIGURES match up with the BOTTOM DEMAND figures. They don't want any surpluses or deficits in this accounting category. However, they will show a so-called surplus of 260 million oz this year due to their CREATIVE ACCOUNTING. That is for another post coming later.
Lastly, the real news is in the SUPPLY CATEGORY at the top. Here we can see that Government sales from China and Russia fell off a cliff from 2010... 44 million down to 11 million in 2011. Also, Producer Hedging declined a substantial amount of nearly 40 million oz. Together that accounted for nearly 70 million oz less than 2010.
The total supply was down 34 million oz from last year so the folks at GFMS had to do some creative accounting to make it look like INVESTMENT DEMAND was lower along with Fabrication demand.
FOLKS.... THE JOKE IS ON US.
_______________________________________________________________________________
Then there was this terrific analysis of AAPL from "Number 47". It would take a great amount of fortitude to step in and short AAPL here. Even put buying seems like a waste of money. However, the chart pattern is what it is. If APPL doesn't follow the historical pattern going forward, it will truly be one-of-a-kind.
"It's summer here in Ireland, rain and wind galore. No hibernating at this time of year. ![]()
You can't eat an Ipad, food, gas, tax and service price inflation V wage stagnation and underemployment does not bode well for aapl. On Bloomberg yesterday the talking heads were speculating this is a $1000 stock and to count increments in price in only $100 moves. ![]()
New paradigm? Can't lose? Investment of the century etc, etc?




Ripe for the bears, fatten us up before the long sleep. "
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OK, that's all for now as we wait for The Bernank. I would caution everyone from gambling ahead of this afternoon's fireworks show. Though underlying physical demand will continue to provide a stable floor here, the best advice would be to sit back and enjoy the theatrical nonsense and wait for tomorrow before acting.
More post-Bernank. TF
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Comments
ZIRP
ZIRP til at least late 2014 - Sounds like a healthy outlook! [not]. But - alas - sell your paper metals.
Damned joke of an economy just keeps chugging along with the same background tune.
The Bernank Speaks
Wow. Look at the gap up to $3,000 on gold!! LOL
Those gold shorts are trapped now - fer sure!
I am not trading
And most should NOT.
However, this action wminds me of the day in early November 2010 when QE2 was announced. A beatdown headfake occurred that day prior to the announcement.
Again, if you arecwilling to risk a loss in the casino, this looks like an excellent opportunity to give it a whirl.
Hey Turd...
Turd.... any mention from Andy on how the SILVER TRADING is doing? Do you think you can get an update on how the new exchange is going?
Jeeesh any good news is welcome...LOL
No more crap news from a crap box
We finally did it! We discontinued cable service and went over the air for free HD TV. Had some help from my son, but it went really well. bought a $60 antenna, and a $24 amplifier, returning the amp as it was not needed. we wired through the existing satellite dish wiring so our son was able to go home with all his coax wiring untouched. also switched to VOIP phone service. Was able to keep same phone # and become unlisted for free. Again, all the same wiring from cable phone was used so that the phones upstairs still plug into the wall. I wasn't sure how that would work, but it did. I am very happy!
It will be an adjustment, but we really needed a better diet of news than what we were getting from cable. and the price we had to pay for their total crap!
Monday was our last day. all the news was Walmart mexican corruption. well, what about MF Global corruption? And I could go on about corruption in the western developed nations, but won't. during that time on Monday, zero hedge posted that the Russian exchanged literally closed due to emergency. Any news on that? not a thing, all day long.
Did I miss any updates on the russian exchange? is there any news about it floating in the Ethernet?
Where are the physical buyers
... to support the price? I don't know. Ask Jim Willie and the "mysterious" London Trader. They always seem to know. According to them there shouldn't be any physical gold left for sale below $1,625.
Junk silver
I just checked out Apmex and they have lots of junk silver/90% right now. Most of the premiums seem high and I'm not into buying a dime for well over $3.00 right now. What I want to buy more of is gold and I'm not in that type of spending mood right now.
I think I'll wait and see what the man behind the microphone has to say today. My guess is that it will be mostly neutral and not very accommodating and that the Fed is silently concentrating more on the EU then on any announcement today of QE for the U.S. markets
Stealth QE has probably been happening this whole time and just enough to keep the U.S. market afloat and bobbing up and down. I think they'll hold onto their QE ammo just a bit longer and hold off on any asset purchases or however they'll characterize it.
Today we'll get double talk from the bearded one and then a steady parade of Fed Heads over the next few days and this weekend to totally frame and mischaracterize everything you thought you heard today. The MSM is a powerful Fed tool and they'll use it for all it's worth and it doesn't cost anything at all. Pretty cost effective if you ask me. If I were them I'd milk it for everything they can squeeze out of it. Isn't that what they're currently starting to do already with greater frequency?
Surreal or business as normal?
ummm which way?
G&S can't figure out which way to go.
So, I bought some, should be back up soon enough. couple days, weeks, months? I can wait.
Apple reminds me of Cisco
First post, registered to comment on AAPL. Is Apple stock reminding anyone of Cisco in 1999? People calling for the first trillion dollar market cap (only on inflation if so). Apple Shareholders Hang On. This is crazy:
Cisco was invincible at one time too. And like Cisco, Apple's chart is looking like a rhino horn. As a long time trader, I know to always sell rhino horns (or unicorns, if that's your thing).
I feel bad for a lot of these folks.
Brief intro: world traveler, with 3 passports, but no true home. While currently staying in the US, no longer consider the US my home. Stacking internationally, investing in resource stocks, and trading other markets as I see fit. Trying to avoid overbearing govts as best I can.
Turd
Pick us up some cheese while you're out.
H'mmm
I think I just missed the Fed news while typing that last post. The comments above me indicate no news or anything surprising.
No surprise here.
Cheese.. and the meaning of life.
Knee-jerk positive
Takes resolve to stay the ground after that knee-jerk reaction in gold and silver prices.
So, between now and the next FOMC meeting, anything can happen:
1. Israel attacks Iran
2. Arab spring 2.0
3. Pain in Spain
4. Hollande wins
5. N. Korea nuke test
Feels like a bottom for now. I'm sticking this out!
Good call Turd!
Pound V. Gold
Who let the Trolls out?
wow. they're coming out of the woodwork today (or is it generally around FOMC meetings?).
Stupid FOMC. I love how they
Stupid FOMC. I love how they will keep interest rates low AT LEAST through late 2014. So for AT LEAST another 30 months with 0.25 rates. What a crock. How is it possible that metals traders don't see that as incredibly bullish. The country is screwed and the low interest rates are simply a confirmation of that. They SHOULD raise the rates but they can't.
shortcovering
looks healthy.
good call on the silver, Turd.
I had CNBS on just now
There was almost a half hour of continuous trashing gold, mentioning $1626 a couple of times, then it shot back up and the subject changed immediately. LOL
Contrarian indicator
When I saw Gartman on CNBC after FOMC, I just knew I had to stay the course!
No QE for a long, long time, he says. Big moves up may not require a QE catalyst (the world's a big place with many central bankers!).
@Turd
Maybe you're right at that
Look at gold
!
Can't comment specifically...
...but did you notice the reference to the HOT and EXPLOSIVE summer earlier in this thread??
FUBM
if i've ever seen one
nice FUBM
NICE FUBM
QE never stopped, why react to inferences that it won't "start"
The Fed bought 61% of all the U.S.'s debt last year. Without the Fed buying this debt there would quickly be failed auctions which would cause interest rates on the debt to shoot up which would quickly make its cost prohibitive while simultaneously making mortgage rates shoot up and thereby crushing the value of real estate.
The Fed never stopped Quantitative Easing.
We don't need to read tea leaves or sift through the entrails of a goat sacrificed outside the Marriner Eccles building to figure out what ambiguous phrasings from Bernanke actually portend for the possibility of quantitative easing.
It never stopped. It can't.
Roaches scrambling... Keep the faith
Plenty of shills out there today defending the big boys...even Lloyd. What's going on?
Caught the first part of Frontline last night. Some good explanations of complicated stuff. Our girl Blythe got major facetime.
For all of the folks who may be underwater on their physical purchases.... sit tight and be right. No doubt managing the day to day is a tremendous fight, but keep in mind that folks from all walks of life frequent here to share their time, wit and wisdom for the benefit of all of us. One thing that makes the nonsense easier for me to tolerate is the fact that my child will benefit from the efforts I currently make. The meandering lately is not necessarily a sign of further pain. It is a mile of consolidation in the marathon we are all running. The smash from 21 to 8 had a similar effect on sentiment. We all know what's happened since then. The awakening is slowly building.
Being a small business owner for many years, I welcome the return toward a more local economy. Mom and Pop provided me with the opportunity to do what I enjoyed (no 9 to 5 for me), and the modest resources necessary to manage the dailys. Do your best to strengthen those local relationships, and to minimize the power we all give to those who simply function to take and rarely give. I've been lucky enough to simplify my life one task at a time. Plenty of small ways to take back control of our lives from those who prey upon us.
Continue to remind yourself how and why you've chosen to dedicate time and resources. Families and individuals who desire simplicity, honesty and community are growing in numbers. Some by necessity, others by design. It matters not how or why. These efforts build stronger tribes and better human beings.
Peace, Eyes
LETS SORT THROUGH THE INSANITY.....
THE FED, THE TACTICS & THE RESULT
The United States and the world heads closer to a systemic breakdown, and the DOW heads higher, and GOLD & SILVER get clobbered once again. Here is an update to my DOW vs GLD-SLV-HUI chart:
Just look how far they have pushed down the HUI index compared to the DOW JONES. The FED's tactic is to crush gold-silver and to destroy any motivation to buy the precious metal stocks whatsoever. With their FOMC minutes, investors think there is no QE coming. SILLY INVESTORS... QE never stopped. Jim Willie will probably have this written on his grave stone "WILL QE 3 COME?"
Jim Willie is just as tired of the fricken FARCE as I am. Let's take a look at the Currency in Circulation:
This is a one year chart of CIC. From the beginning of 2012, there is another $30 billion dollars of currency in circulation. Let's take a look at the M2 Money Supply:
That's a nice chart....but here's the exact figures:
The M2 Money Supply has risen a nice $215 billion in the past 3+ months... or $70 billion a month. WHERE ON EARTH DID THIS COME FROM? I imagine out of the THIN FRICKEN AIR.
I have seen another Metal Analyst from Hawood Securities say the following about SILVER:
-----------------------------------------------
$24 dollars an ounce for silver in 2016. Does Mr. Thompson have any idea what the cost will be to produce a ounce of silver in 2016? Haywood also states that there will be a BILLION ounces of silver mined by 2016. Let me tell you all something... there is no way silver mining will increase 31% in five years. If Chile is having so much trouble getting energy to mine Copper, how the HELL will the mining industry produce this much silver??
You see that sort of LUNACY I have to read every day. The most frustrating part about this to me is that these CLOWNS get paid big bucks to write this sort of NONSENSE, while I do it for free. That is why my wife thinks I am crazy.
Here's the link
to the information in noted in the previous comment. Somewhat relevant.
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2010/11/anatomy-of-ee-attack.html
Bravo, SRSrocco!
Fantastic!!!
The irony is rich. Genius analyst Chris Thompson was a featured speaker at the 2008 Tungsten Festival. Seriously, I can't make this shit up!
http://www.talkingtungsten.com/
Xty
Just saw that also. Crazy or what?
It took a couple baby bounces at $1630 again and up it went. H'mmm, makes you wonder what happened right there specifically that caused that. I wish I knew exactly what some of these abrupt moves signify.
Looks more like a solid FUBM type of move before today's PM close happened.