Waterfall attack on Silver. Measures now as falling piano to 29.60 in this impulse down leg. Now at midpt area for possible bounce around 30.15
first impulse down was 1.50 pts. So second will be the same. The Borg is a robot. 2nd impulse wave down often bounces at midway pt.
Do you think there is any possibility this is a massive head fake in silver?
This reminds me of January 25th a little bit - spike down before a massive move up?
This lead up is smelling foul. Be careful with your miners especially. I can't get a read which tells me anything is possible. Better not to gain then lose imo.
Turd is calling for a headfake and reversal off this bottom in Silver at 30. Its a wild guess based in hope and forensic analysis and nothing more.
be careful of buying falling pianos. 29.60 is the inevitable first down target now for Silver imo. The impulse wave will match the first wave down of 1.5 pts. 80% of all trading is now HFT Robotic Borg trading. The Borg does not change. It move inexorably toward its own fulfillment. Is preprogrammed and patient as the day is long.
Once 29.60 area hits then reassess IMO.
I think this is going to be a pretty big move - a couple of dollars.
Well, down 52 cents is a long way from $2
Don't worry, the remaining $1.48 will be coming.
anyone have the streaming news feed on the FOMC today?
Anybody who walked into that deserves it...
Viva la ZSL!!!
And S2 and S1. Happy happy day for me :)
Picked up an S2 and have a stink bid in for an S2.5 I am trying. Happy day for me also. Zipped right past S1.
Bought some USLV, instead of the futum...
Surprising strength in the miners.
I thought for sure the action pre-announcement was a head fake, pull the rug out from under the rubes (of which I include myself these days). I went into today with very few miners left in the portfolio. Dramatically pared down positions in NGD, EGO, EXK, TRX, ABX and a small JAG position.
My position before the Fed was capital preservation.
EGO is actually having a helluva day. I sold a little before 12:30.
Wait, maybe this is the head fake. Still have 2:00 and 2:15 gauntlets to run. Surely one of them will cudgel the miners.
Currently long LNG.
Haven't seen a market this crazy since 2008.
I am surprised to not see more significant downward movement - maybe the Fed statement is priced in? Any thoughts - do you think we break through 30 today?
Then again - the move down before the statement could have something to do with this. My bet is that we see a pretty good spike down here pretty soon.
Re-set?
takes much patience to trade the machinations of the Borg.
today could just as easily be a big heakfake as it could a crash day. 80% of all trading is now done by Robots.
Yea. This is very true with the time-of-day trade as well. Thinking and trying to cut losses can cost you a lot of money on that trade. Learned that one the hard way! LOL! But that is the main secret that can be hard to learn.
I agree 100%
This is why one needs to have all the details worked out before beginning. That way one does not have to think. It is all worked out and one simply follows the plan. It is when the UNKNOWN happens that one did not prepare for that causes the big problems of panic & thinking.
I look at this like buying physical silver. if I get stuck owning a few ounces that is fine with me. It would be paid for in full and no leverage. so I will not need more money to stay in the position. It is like owning a stock fully paid. I can wait for the shares to come back up. Not a good situation but I have lived through it before.
I do not like the idea of beginning this method by also shorting silver. That would make me nervous until I had lots of experience in how it works by actually doing it. I might panic if silver were in a big strong up trend and I was stuck short. not a good situation.
Anyway I do not know what to do with extra units bought in the next days. For example I think on Monday it went to S3 and then Tuesday up some. Not sure if it sold off those S3 purchases of Monday. Anyway now it is down to buying S3 agtain. obviously if the S3 were sold off at R3 then there is no question. But if one is still holding the Monday S3 and bought 3 more S3 today then the situation needs to know what to do. If I keep buying I need the money sitting there to make the buy and I need to know if the system is to buy. I do not want to have to panic and think about it at the time. if I can not figure out what to do right now while I am calm then I sure will not get the answer when I am in panic mode.
I bought all three S levels on Monday. No buying or selling on Tuesday (no targets hit in either direction). Bought all three S levels again today. So now I've got 12 positions at a truly sexy avg cost. Again I can do this for days and days on end, but don't think I'll get that lucky! To do this you need to have some significant capital at hand or buy very very small at each pivot. Or only buy at S3? You'd trade a lot less but still be in the game at low risk. Only you know what you can and cannot do in this regard.
If you started this week buying only S3, then your Monday buy would have been at 31.12, no trades Tuesday, and another buy today at 30.10. That would give you an average of 30.60. And now we're bouncing, already essentially there at your average. From here on it's profit time - even though your Monday buy (in hindsight) was a bit pricey. That's a real world example that's happened right in front of you in the last three days!
As for shorting, you'd never get stuck terribly in a short position because you'd be covering each time price hit an S level.
My guess is that you fear a trend in one direction or the other that just stretches and stretches but does not hit targets. This simply will not happen. Particularly in normally rather volatile silver. The pivots tighten up over time if there is a soft drift for days/weeks. That's what happened last week in silver resulting in hits on all three S levels on Monday. See?
My suggestion? Open a forex.com practice account and trade there exactly as you would in real life and with the same dollar amounts, no matter how much they "give" you to practice with. Just figure out how much $$ you'd want to commit max per day, divide by six and start placing buy orders at the S levels. Some will hit, most will not. Once you have a position on, start placing sells at the R level/s. When you sell make sure you put back on a new S buy, etc, rinse/repeat. After a few weeks you'll have a pretty good idea how it works and why the risk isn't nearly as high as buy/hold.
I am trading oil and gold mini-futures (500 barrels and 33.2 oz).
I buy/sell at R1/S1 IF they meet a minimum spread of $1 or $10 from pivot, or I move it to R2/S2.
Once I have a position long or short, I set the buy/sell anew every day to 1 below on the same side (R2/S2) but again, if position 1 is not the minimum, that moves to R3/S3. The opposing side is then R1/R2 or S1/S2, again w/minimum meaning I can push it out to R/S 2-3 instead. So 3 orders maximum.
If I get 2 positions I go only the other way - R/S 1-2-3 (or just 2-3)
No stops. To protect myself I buy an out of money call/put for each. I try to spend about $1,000 or so maximum on both of them. In gold, I managed to get to sell another one against it to lock in profits, but if the trade stays in range you will lose on the options, but should do well on the pivots (that is oil so far for me).
I have not worked out silver yet and its margins are higher, but if this keeps working I may do so. However when back-testing silver did not look as good as oil and gold.
Today I am not in though until the Fed speak is over with. Just too risky, though I could have gotten the S2 in Gold. I just feel that the volatility is much higher and therefore not reflected in the pivots, and cannot be predicted in any way, therefore it is safer to back off and wait, so I am going to do that.
Comments for "Pailin's Trading Corner"Keep up with the latest TF Metals Report news. Subscribe to "This Week in Turdville" today!
| Username | Hat Tips Earned | |
|---|---|---|
 | Mr. Fix | 2195 |
 | The Watchman | 2189 |
 | ancientmoney | 2055 |
 | Pining 4 the Fjords | 1822 |
 | JakeBlues | 1635 |
 | Gold Dog | 1569 |
 | AlexCojones | 1519 |
 | Bollocks | 1397 |
 | Texas Sandman | 1294 |
 | Xty | 1281 |
And S2 and S1. Happy happy day for me :)
__________________
I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild
Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell