The Return of The Comiskey

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Just a bit ago, I was able to track down our old pal, Jim Comiskey. Given the current state of affairs, I thought it might be fun to get his take on everything from the S&P, to the metals to the latest report of Mad Cow Disease in California.

Ole Jim didn't disappoint. To listen to the podcast in its entirety, just click the microphone icon to the left. While you're listening, here are some other items that I found relevant as we passed through the day.

First up, a story from late yesterday about China bypassing the dollar and using gold to purchase Iranian oil. Santa's pretty worked up about it and rightfully so. He discussed this situation and more during his latest with Eric King. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/4/24_Sinclair_-_Shorts_Now_Trapped_%26_Gold_Could_Gap_Up_to_$3,000.html. The article that brought all of this to the fore can be found here: http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2012/04/22/the-best-reason-in-the-world-to-buy-gold/. And here are my thoughts from last night:

"The question you need to ask is: If true, what will the Iranians do with the gold they receive in exchange for oil? They'll most likely convert it into some type of currency which they can then exchange for gasoline, food, etc. Which currency would they convert it to? Dollars? No. Euro? Doubtful. Pounds. Not a chance. Yen? Be serious. Maybe they trade the gold to Russia in exchange for wheat, fuel and weapons?
I dunno. Maybe this story has it all wrong and they don't take gold at all? Why not just take renminbi for your crude and begin building reserves in it instead of dollars? Much easier than shipping gold around and an account at the PBoC is a lot safer than storing your gold at home. Ask Gaddafi or Saddam about that one."

As a follow-up, you should also read this interesting note from Izabella Kaminska at the Financial Times:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/04/23/970271/the-unwitting-move-towards-a-global-gold-standard/

Next, there were two items I found today from Charles Hugh Smith. This first piece is about the "disappearance" of money. You've likely heard me state before that gold provides protection for your wealth and the silver provides you protection to purchase basic necessities. This article is along those lines:

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogapril12/when-money-vanishes4-12.html

This second piece comes via Chris Martenson's blog and it follows on the theme of fudged and manipulated government data. As we barrel toward another BLSBS report next week, I thought this was timely:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/what-data-can-we-trust/74361

Oh, and this is fun. Santa posted this link earlier. It's a map of every U.S. police department that has the authorization/capability to launch and use aerial drones. How nice. God Bless the U.S.A. Land of the Monitored and Home of the Surveilled.

https://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msa=0&msid=214769660919529725423.0004bde31d74fe6eb1ece&hl=en&ie=UTF8&t=m&ll=45.336702,-110.039062&spn=58.987964,112.5&z=3&source=embed

Next, here's a video from Paul Coghlan. Paul is one of Andrew Maguire's business partners and he operates his own trading service. He publishes these updates daily for his subscribers and offered this one to all Turdites as an introduction to his services. Pretty good stuff!

http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/3039

I owe you some charts, too, so here they are. First up, let's look at gold. We are still being pressed lower by the downtrend line but we are getting close to what should be very strong support between 1600 and 1620. We might have bottomed yesterday but I don't think so. My gut tells me that there is at least one more thrust lower to test and confirm a double bottom. From there, a move higher that takes gold back UP through 1660 and then 1680 will confirm that this nasty episode is behind us.

paper_4-24pmgold8.jpg

In regards to silver, I thought we should start with a chart of crude. HUH? That's right, crude. Do you recall last week when I mentioned that the silver chart looked a lot like the crude chart from late March and that silver was subject to "getting its stops gunned"? Well, guess what happened? And now what? Note that immediately after the crude stops were gunned a few weeks ago, crude bounced back but failed at the old support line, which had now become resistance. It then sold off further to a deeper low before consolidating and turning higher.

paper_4-24pmcrude.jpg

Note that silver may be following this same, classic pattern. The stops got gunned yesterday and down she went. A rally today failed right near where the old support had been and now it has since turned back lower. Will we next see a lower low, perhaps near the $30 level that we've all been waiting for? Probably.

paper_4-24pmsilv8.jpg

Lastly, silver open interest rose again yesterday to a new 2012 high of 122,727. Again, for reference, back on 2/24 with price $5 higher, total OI peaked at 118,204 before falling along with price to 106,723 on 3/15. Since that date, price has fallen another $1.50 yet OI has risen by over 15%. The spring is obviously being coiled for a dramatic move. Which direction will it be? I imagine you can guess what I think.

Have a great evening and overnight. Get ready for a volatile rest of the week.   TF

Comments

Groaner's picture

I am basing it on every other

I am basing it on every other earnings gap up. But again that's why I am not rich

Monedas's picture

On Being A Turd !

The scariest part of being a Turd....is being born....yes, the birthing process....especially if you have Hydrophobia and Claustrophobia and Tube Aversion Syndrome !   Monedas  1929   Comedy Jihad Free Range Wild Plopped Prairie Born Texas Turd From Terlingua !  devil

agrock's picture

downgraded again ??

?

did this just completely get swept under the rug a few weeks ago?

http://nation.foxnews.com/us-credit-rating-downgrade/2012/04/06/egan-jones-downgrades-us-credit-rating

Obama Orders Press Blackout After US Credit Rating Cut

http://beforeitsnews.com/story/1993/845/Obama_Orders_Press_Blackout_After_US_Credit_Rating_Cut.html

A shattering report from RIA Novosti's Washington D.C. bureau appears to prove that the mainstream press in America has become nothing more than a propaganda arm of the Obama regime when during a White House news briefing this past week they were effectively ordered not to report on this past weeks credit rating cut of US government debt.

The Russian International News Agency (RIA Novosti) is a Russian state-owned news agency based in the capital Moscow whose clients include the presidential administration, Russian government, Federation Council, State Duma, leading ministries and government departments, administrations of Russian regions, representatives of Russian and foreign business communities, diplomatic missions, and public organizations.

The White House news briefing referred to in this report occurred this past Thursday (5 April) when Obama regime officials were queried about the latest shock downgrade of the United States credit rating stating that to the American people this critical event should be kept in the category of a "non-story" so as not to confuse and/or shock them.

Most surprisingly, this report continues, the mainstream US news media, including their most important television networks and major newspapers, dutifully followed the directives of the Obama regime and failed to uniformly inform the American people of this momentous event.

Credit rating agency Egan Jones (EJR) downgraded the United States Thursday on concern over the sustainability of public debt. Egan Jones is one of the most important ratings firms in the world; they lowered the US credit level from AA+ to AA. The firm reduced the US from AAA to AA+ in July 2011, just before Standard & Poor's did the same.

Egan Jones further warned: "Without some structural changes soon, restoring credit quality will become increasingly difficult . . . without some structural changes soon, restoring credit quality will become increasingly difficult." They added that there was a 1.2% probability of US default in the next 12 months. The company cited the fact that the US's total debt, which now equals its total GDP, is rising and soon will eclipse the national GDP; the company sees the debt rising to 112% of the GDP by 2014.

So dire have economic conditions become in the United States that American freelance alternative press online columnist Allen Roland stated to Press TV this past week that the United States is experiencing a deep depression and cited the following facts:

"Reality is finally coming to the surface. The stock market is not the American economy. Eighty percent of the stock market is basically high frequency trading of the big boys playing games with their money.

And 61 percent of the American debt is being bought by, guess who? The Fed (US Federal Reserve Bank) - So we're printing money. So let me give you the raw economic numbers, which basically what this is telling us - raw economic numbers about the American economy:

38 percent of all Americans are either considered to be low income or living in poverty; 57 percent of all children in the US are living in homes that are either considered to be low income or impoverished; the average amount of time a worker stays employed in the US is now over 40 weeks and according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 16.6 million Americans were self-employed in 2006; today that number is 14.5 million."

Most astounding to note in these horrible statistics about the US economy are that they are apparently welcomed by Obama who yesterday stated about the weekly jobs report: "We welcome today's news that our businesses created another 121,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate ticked down."

Failing to be mentioned by Obama, or his propaganda mainstream press corps lap-dogs, was that the only reason the US unemployment rate was able to be tagged lower was due to the record number of 88 million Americans dropping out of the work force because there are no jobs for them.

To how the Obama regime is really dealing with the catastrophic rate of unemployment, aside from keeping the American media from telling the truth, appears to be through mass arrests of those who dare to protest, and as of 29 March showed nearly 7,000 US citizens jailed for protesting in at least 113 separate cities.

Even worse, new reports from the United States are further warning that a new wave of home foreclosures is underway that will rival the upheaval seen by those who lived through the Great Depression of the 1930's.

To how the Obama regime will deal with future instability caused by unprecedented economic dislocation and chaos Americans are being warned that their police forces have now adopted Israeli techniques which, in essence, labels all protesters as terrorists while at the same time the US Department of Homeland Security is still refusing to say why they ordered 450 million rounds of ammunition.

One of the rare exceptions to those American media organizations doing lap-dog service for the Obama regime is the highly respected lawyer and New York Times best selling author Glenn Greenwald who in his latest article in Salon Magazine writes: "The uncritical relationship and overlapping functions of government officials and establishment media organs are more severe than ever."

Most sadly in all of these events, the once great United States, whose press freedoms were once legendary, has been placed at No. 47 on the world's press freedom index by the internationally respected Reporters Without Borders (RSF) organization in a stunning move reflecting how deprived of real truth the American people truly are.

The great American Founding Father Thomas Jefferson once warned his fellow citizens, "Our liberty cannot be guarded but by the freedom of the press, nor that be limited without danger of losing it."

With that warning going unheeded, however, the quote of the great American author Mark Twain seems to be the more appropriate one to use for this American generation, "There are laws to protect the freedom of the press's speech, but none that are worth anything to protect the people from the press."

recaptureamerica's picture

Is America a Free

ClinkinKY's picture

@ Number 47

I'm not  smart and/or brave enough to trade but I forwarded your post to my son who I believe is. His rebuttal in the interest of "fair play/discussion". (Someday I may even convince him to become a Turdizen:)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Three charts and not a single point made about Apple's actual business. If you look at the source and breakdown of their numbers $1000 seems damn near inevitable. They made 3X what they did in the year ago quarter in China, and the iPhone isn't even available on China's largest carrier. That carrier has 600 million subscribers, so once it is available to their customers that could easily add 15 million units per quarter. The iPad isn't available in China at all because of a trademark dispute, but once that is resolved I think 15 to 20 million iPads per quarter in China is a realistic estimate.

 
As @asymco pointed out: "iPad growth rates (y/y) for the last four quarters starting with Q2 11: 182.8% 165.6% 110.5% 150%."
 
The list goes on and on. The point is that the price run up is not based on hysteria and bandwagon jumping, it is based on them consistently posting numbers that are phenomenal. With the worldwide shift from feature phones to smartphones, plus the exploding middle class in China (and perhaps in India in another decade?), their prospects for long term growth are extremely bright.
 
This is all to say nothing of their supply chain and process management, which leads to margins that are simply unheard of. Since he likes charts, show him this one. :) http://twitpic.com/9dmohv
 
Oh, and their retail stores, which they are adding aggressively, sell twice as much per square foot as Tiffany's, 17 times as much as the average retail store. http://www.asymco.com/2012/04/18/apple-stores-have-seventeen-times-better-performance-than-the-average-retailer/


 
Where, exactly, is the chink in their armor?
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Bobbejaan's picture

Gold Alchemy ... Swinging on a Star

Quote:
Gold from asteroids ??!!
Submitted by Basil on April 25, 2012 - 1:17pm.

Is this really viable !! Hope not or all our stacks are gonna be toast !

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17827347

If you believe that ... My mate has acquired a Leonardo Da Vinci invention which he's willing to sell, and I'd be happy to act as your Investment Broker for a small commission. devil wink

Here's his marketing video :-

recaptureamerica's picture

March Durable Good Implode,

March Durable Good Implode, Worse Than Lowest Wall Street Forecast And Biggest Drop Since January 2009
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/march-durable-good-implode-worse-lowest-wa...

ed's picture

Oil and Gold off on this news

Iran considers halting Nuke expansion to avert Eu sanctions

Big Buffalo's picture

Apple and Gold

Apple: Would love to see a little pull back at the open.

Gold: Would love to see a little pull back this afternoon.

Got me some dry powder!

Let's be real folks, we're here to make money and protect our wealth. Nothing wrong with buying some stocks while stacking.

On another note: for thoughts of bugging out and taking your PMs with you and reduce the worry of confiscation. Would it not be cool to have a chess set made of silver and gold. 1/2 oz pieces for the pawns, 1 oz for others, 1.5 oz for the king and queen.

StevenBHorse's picture

Re: Apple

Basil's picture

Gold from Asteroids

Well the surprising thing is that a number of billionaires are pouring money into this venture, so at least they seem to think it's viable.  Personally I wouldn't be so dismissive so quickly.   Maybe it will indeed become feasible in the future.

Stranger things have happened in the past. In the early 1960's the majority of folks thought the idea of flying a man to the moon that very same decade utterly outrageous.  The rest is history ...

Interesting how some (admittedly not all) of the gold bulls are very quick to totally dismiss any story that would result in the price being depressed, but have no problem believing a story with no foundation that is hugely bullish eg "There's no gold in Fort Knox"   

ClinkinKY's picture

@ StevenBHorse

Re: Apple

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012/03/Apple%20Conundrum.pdf

Forward this to your son.

---------------------------------------

Done

Groaner's picture

I guess with the bad data they think easing will come sooner.

Getting another pop

recaptureamerica's picture

Idk, why not just invest in

Idk, why not just invest in gold and other minerals here and now? is a shortage coming or here already?

How can they justify the costs? Most asteroids are years away by rocket travel...

If anything I see It helping the price of a pms climb..Based on info on asteroids..

http://www.space.com/51-asteroids-formation-discovery-and-exploration.html

recaptureamerica's picture

I find the news release of

I find the news release of durable goods worse than expected on day of Burnankes fed meeting a little too coincidental...

Just sayn'

recaptureamerica's picture

I guess iSpend stuff not

I guess iSpend stuff not included in durable goods number?

recaptureamerica's picture

S&P cuts India outlook;

S&P cuts India outlook; investment rating in peril
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-cuts-india-outlook-negative-074839947.html

ClinkinKY's picture

@ StevenBHorse-My son's response to your request

I just skimmed it, and it seems odd. They repeatedly use terms like "always" and "forever". Well, yea, nobody is saying they will continuing growing at this rate for 50 years. That doesn't mean they won't have astronomical growth for another 2 to 3 years and then 5 or so years of modest growth though. They also completely ignore the international market. At some point China will likely surpass the US as Apple's largest source of revenue, so estimating how much each US citizen must spend on Apple products is pointless.

 
They also doubt Apple's margins can sustain themselves, which seems to ignore speculation that Apple is using its cash to tighten up its already impressive supply chain and the fact that the further into a product's lifetime the costs of producing it should drop, not rise, thanks to predictability and streamlining. They say Apple needs to earn $2.6 trillion over the next decade, which may or may not be true, but if China keeps growing it seems entirely possible.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I should get to work so that will be my last Apple missive of the day, but feel free to share it and tell them I am happy to check back in after Q3 earnings are announced. :)
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Groaner's picture

i GUESS I WAS WRONG. AAPL HOLDING WELL

And notice the hit on the metals.. 10 am could be another bomb time.

Xty's picture

adrock - re downgrade

I went to the link, and it seems very odd.  I could not find any actual link to Obama directing the news to ignore the downgrade.  I think we need better confirmation.

Xty's picture

Groaner

I think you need another holiday - or a different one.  Cheer up - today is definitely a day of wait and see.

I cant always be waiting waiting on you
I cant always be playing playing your fool
I keep playing your part
But its not my scene
Wont this plot not twist?
I've had enough mystery.
Keep building me up, then shooting me down
Well im already down
Just wait a minute
Just sitting waiting
Just wait a minute
Just sitting waiting

Xty's picture

Wait and see, and knock out any stops

In the past, when I was learning to use stops, I managed to lose lots of money.  Looking at the gold and silver charts today, I cannot but feel that the stops are being taken out brutally before the Bernanke speaks and we get a bounce.   

Bobbejaan's picture

RE :- Gold from Asteroids

Quote:
Interesting how some (admittedly not all) of the gold bulls are very quick to totally dismiss any story that would result in the price being depressed, but have no problem believing a story with no foundation that is hugely bullish eg "There's no gold in Fort Knox"

Gravity and Economic-Physics supports my disbelief on a PURELY scientific basis (unless Earthly-Gold literally reaches "Astronomic" prices, if you'll excuse the pun).

.

I would however be far less sceptical & more worried IF they were proposing something more practical & "down to Earth" ..... such as developing a means of economically extracting Gold from Seawater (which will probably be TPTB's "Final Weapon of Mass Propaganda" in their fight to devalue Gold wink).

.

BTW ... I DO hope it ISN'T true that "There's no gold in Fort Knox" ... as IF all the gold is still there (AND is still owned by the Nation), then America does have a chance ... but IF it ISN'T, then America is almost certainly fe**ed (along with a large portion of other nation-states).

Number 47's picture

@clinkinky

Demand, the chink in the apple armour.

Not sure about you but where I live everything is getting more expensive by the day, incomes are still the same as 2008, if not worse due to increased taxation. there is no sign of this changing anytime soon. Ipads and Iphones will not be bought over petrol or food. Funny money is creating mope but reality is just around the corner, especially here in Europe. More and more people are protesting all over Europe, the radical right and left are in ascendency again and all is not quiet on the western front.

Chinese demand is a gamble, their burgeoning middle class is a direct result of the destruction of the middle classes elsewhere. Demand may shift but it won't grow much. I guess it will compress margins though, less shipping costs. Also, those Chinese aspirationals keep demanding higher wages and better working conditions. Will apple be moving production to Detroit soon?

Their figures are great, yes. no denying it but the fundamentals are horrible. I think most of us on this site agree that we are entering a period of economic catastrophe, it hasn't even begun yet, we are still in the insanity phase. Much like the great depression, the first crash was just a taster, the decline later was epic. We've printed and kicked it down the road, fair enough but the indicators are all pointing towards it not having worked.

What is an ipad worth at the end of the great keynesian experiment?

billwilson's picture

LBMA

So yesterday they ran the gold price up right into the London afternoon fix, and the fix was at the high for the day ... downhill afterwards.

Today they run the price down to the fix (almost the low for the day) so let's see if that was the low.

proformatrillionaire's picture

Maples or Eagles?

I had a bunch of silver eagles before I lost all of them when my paddle boat capsized on the Cheasapeake Bay last week. However, I am looking replenish my stack as soon as I can. I have been thinking about purchasing maples instead of eagles. The maples seem slightly cheaper and could not be confiscated by the US government if or when they decide that it is unlawful for ordinary bubbas to own gold and silver. Seems like maples could be the better choice. What do you guys think?

Xty's picture

re downgrade and press coverage

It would appear that the Obama 'order' is speculation, and possibly Russian propaganda.  But the story is actually worse.  Who needs a press order when you can just shut down the entire company?:

Egan-Jones Downgrade of U.S. Followed By SEC Investigation

 
April 20, 2012

For the second time, a ratings agency downgraded the United States and then became the subject of an investigation by the United States government.

 

Egan-Jones is the smallest credit-rating agency which is nationally recognized. Egan-Jones is one of the few ratings agencies that is supported by subscribers as opposed to issuers of the securities it rates. [CNBC]

They have been highly critical of ratings agencies for being too slow to downgrade nations especially during the housing crisis. They were among the first to downgrade countries during the global financial crisis, particularly the United States and Germany.[CNBC]

Recently they downgraded the United States to almost no fanfare in the media (see story below). Today, Thursday, Sean Egan said that the SEC voted to file civil charges against the agency.

The SEC claims that Egan knowingly made misstatements when it applied to become a nationally recognized rating agency in 2007. Egan for his part told CNBC, ”This has nothing to do with our ratings. This has to do with paperwork and filings in connection with an application. There’s never been any question about our ratings.” [CNBC]

When S&P downgraded the United States, the SEC immediately after launched an investigation into their practices. In fairness, they, along with Fitch and Moodys were the subject of a DOJ complaint in 2010.

...

In a google search, I found the following online agencies did report on the downgrade. : Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Fox, Fox Business.

I searched CBS and found they reported on Egan-Jones downgrading France’s credit rating (11/11) and the U.S. in 2011. NBC had nothing and ABC sent me to Ask.com.

The silence is deafening. Did the White House ask for the news blackout or do the lamestream simply chat and decide among themselves?

In February, S&P said that if we did nothing, they might downgrade us within six months. With our debt to GDP ratio nearing 112%, a new debt ceiling breach approaching by Fall, and no budget plan in place, Egan-Jones is only the first and will not be the last, to downgrade us.

Last time S&P downgraded the U.S., the DOJ tried to stop them with unconvincing arguments, and then, when that didn’t work, they ordered an investigation of S&P.

http://www.independentsentinel.com/2012/04/egan-jones-downgrade-of-u-s-f...

 

Big Buffalo's picture

Maples or Eagles

When in doubt. . . .buy a bit of both. Simple.

Xty's picture

proformatrillionaire

Hello!  You can guess what I think:

Oops, that's on the wish list!  

Harald's picture

Maples

Beautiful coins IMHO.

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