The Return of The Comiskey
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Just a bit ago, I was able to track down our old pal, Jim Comiskey. Given the current state of affairs, I thought it might be fun to get his take on everything from the S&P, to the metals to the latest report of Mad Cow Disease in California.
Ole Jim didn't disappoint. To listen to the podcast in its entirety, just click the microphone icon to the left. While you're listening, here are some other items that I found relevant as we passed through the day.
First up, a story from late yesterday about China bypassing the dollar and using gold to purchase Iranian oil. Santa's pretty worked up about it and rightfully so. He discussed this situation and more during his latest with Eric King. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/4/24_Sinclair_-_Shorts_Now_Trapped_%26_Gold_Could_Gap_Up_to_$3,000.html. The article that brought all of this to the fore can be found here: http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2012/04/22/the-best-reason-in-the-world-to-buy-gold/. And here are my thoughts from last night:
"The question you need to ask is: If true, what will the Iranians do with the gold they receive in exchange for oil? They'll most likely convert it into some type of currency which they can then exchange for gasoline, food, etc. Which currency would they convert it to? Dollars? No. Euro? Doubtful. Pounds. Not a chance. Yen? Be serious. Maybe they trade the gold to Russia in exchange for wheat, fuel and weapons?
I dunno. Maybe this story has it all wrong and they don't take gold at all? Why not just take renminbi for your crude and begin building reserves in it instead of dollars? Much easier than shipping gold around and an account at the PBoC is a lot safer than storing your gold at home. Ask Gaddafi or Saddam about that one."
As a follow-up, you should also read this interesting note from Izabella Kaminska at the Financial Times:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/04/23/970271/the-unwitting-move-towards-a-global-gold-standard/
Next, there were two items I found today from Charles Hugh Smith. This first piece is about the "disappearance" of money. You've likely heard me state before that gold provides protection for your wealth and the silver provides you protection to purchase basic necessities. This article is along those lines:
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogapril12/when-money-vanishes4-12.html
This second piece comes via Chris Martenson's blog and it follows on the theme of fudged and manipulated government data. As we barrel toward another BLSBS report next week, I thought this was timely:
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/what-data-can-we-trust/74361
Oh, and this is fun. Santa posted this link earlier. It's a map of every U.S. police department that has the authorization/capability to launch and use aerial drones. How nice. God Bless the U.S.A. Land of the Monitored and Home of the Surveilled.
Next, here's a video from Paul Coghlan. Paul is one of Andrew Maguire's business partners and he operates his own trading service. He publishes these updates daily for his subscribers and offered this one to all Turdites as an introduction to his services. Pretty good stuff!
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/3039
I owe you some charts, too, so here they are. First up, let's look at gold. We are still being pressed lower by the downtrend line but we are getting close to what should be very strong support between 1600 and 1620. We might have bottomed yesterday but I don't think so. My gut tells me that there is at least one more thrust lower to test and confirm a double bottom. From there, a move higher that takes gold back UP through 1660 and then 1680 will confirm that this nasty episode is behind us.
In regards to silver, I thought we should start with a chart of crude. HUH? That's right, crude. Do you recall last week when I mentioned that the silver chart looked a lot like the crude chart from late March and that silver was subject to "getting its stops gunned"? Well, guess what happened? And now what? Note that immediately after the crude stops were gunned a few weeks ago, crude bounced back but failed at the old support line, which had now become resistance. It then sold off further to a deeper low before consolidating and turning higher.
Note that silver may be following this same, classic pattern. The stops got gunned yesterday and down she went. A rally today failed right near where the old support had been and now it has since turned back lower. Will we next see a lower low, perhaps near the $30 level that we've all been waiting for? Probably.
Lastly, silver open interest rose again yesterday to a new 2012 high of 122,727. Again, for reference, back on 2/24 with price $5 higher, total OI peaked at 118,204 before falling along with price to 106,723 on 3/15. Since that date, price has fallen another $1.50 yet OI has risen by over 15%. The spring is obviously being coiled for a dramatic move. Which direction will it be? I imagine you can guess what I think.
Have a great evening and overnight. Get ready for a volatile rest of the week. TF
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Comments
Could Not Resist
@patrancus, and DPH/Indigostar7: here you go, too.
Mad Cow Jim Comiskey Misinformation
I like the guy, but he spreads a huge piece of misinformation when he confuses Mad Cow with Foot and Mouth Disease.
England had foot and mouth disease outbreak when they slaughtered hundreds if not thousands of animals. South Korea had a foot and mouth disease outbreak a year or two ago and had to slaughter many of their pigs.
Foot and Mouth disease is highly contagious and spreads like wildfire, whereas Mad Cow is only spread by an animal eating feed that has been contaminated with spinal cord or brain tissue of a previously infected animal and is not contagious.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-24/mad-cow-case-confirmed-in-central-california-usda-says.html
Just a quick side note that
Just a quick side note that is precious metals related - I continue to visit local pawn shops. Silver coins showing up at a pawn shop is nothing unusual. However, the volume of coins that I'm seeing on my weekly visits has picked up with far fewer buyers. I purchased several silver Peace dollars in XF-AU condition, a good number of mercury dimes and quarters all right at spot value. Silver Eagles were also on display for just $1 above spot - including airtite plastic holders. There was enough inventory on hand to where I could be very selective. I typically buy larger quantities of bullion, so this was a treat. We stack 90% silver in case there is ever a need to barter.
I'm also seeing more high quality guns in their inventory. 1911 variants, Glocks (they go quickly), Springfield Armory and Smith & Wesson M&P handguns, AR-15 and AK47 variants. This tells me people are hurting financially and giving up their toys for cash. There is also an increase in WWII era rifles and hunting equipment coming in.
Congrats on the job, Doc!
Outstanding! Congratulations on your new job. I have read a couple of your posts where you mentioned the job hunt.
I'm interviewing as well and the market is tough, but at least I'm landing a few interviews here and there. I can move anywhere in the US, and traditionally my career field has lots of opportunities. The opportunities are still out there, but recruiters are keeping them much closer to their vest so you gotta be a little more aggressive in your pursuit.
Very happy to hear your news!
another observation.....
Congratulations GoodDoctor
...and good luck, Patriot Family.
If, during your searches, you come across opportunities that you decided to pass on for one reason or another, but perhaps could/would be of interest to others -- please pass them on to the rest of Turdville. One man's trash, another's treasure, and all that...
Methods and strategies for successfully navigating the employment jungle out there are also appreciated.
____________________________
Turdland Jobs Forum
@kingboo - so long as it's not 3 dollar notes...
...pick your flavor of political poison:
I still say
They ought to go back to using pieces of wood or tulips. I want to stack more fizzzzzzzzzzzyzyzyzyzyzyzyz
Turd's Traffic Sentiment Index
Turd,
How about an update on the TITS?
Maybe with some old key dates for perspective.
Options Expiry and Fed comments tomorrow. Expect fireworks, just wouldn't want to predict up or down.
Feel free join the chat feature to discuss it live if there is excitement that we need to vent about.
Z
China paying in gold?
Not happening.
One sells gold when one is desperate. China, at this time, is not in that position. They are accumulating gold. China is positioning itself to be the world's reserve currency, with (a/their) currency backed by gold. They are not, however, paying in gold right now.
The US still has the highest GDP of any country in the world. The US, in fact, accounts for about 25% of the entire world's "GDP". However, about 60% of the US GDP is produced in the finance/banking/insurance industries. The US owns those industries because the dollar is the worlds reserve currency. China knows that the US is broke and that the dollar will not remain the worlds reserve currency. They are positioning themselves to control the world's next reserve currency. This is why they are accumulating PMs as well as encouraging their citizens to accumulate PMs.
Edit- Well, maybe it could be happening. If Iran was selling oil far below the market value but demanding payment in gold, China might be paying in gold, re-selling the oil, then re-purchasing a larger amount of gold with the profits. Maybe China is buying the discounted Syrian gold with the profits from the Iranian oil profits!?!?!?
Chupacabra Sighting
on PBS. Frontline discussing Wall Street and CDOs.
J. Sinclair had this to say...
Dear CIGAs,
The European Stabilization Mechanism Treaty due to pass in July this year will take care of whatever money is required by Spain or any other Euroland nations for effective bailout. It starts with $700 billion in capitalization and has an open call for additional capital infusion with no limit placed on these calls and no further agreements required.
New additional capitalization called on by this treaty is mandatory, not elective and therefore will go to infinity.
The member nations have 7 days to pay up when ordered to by the management of the EMS who are protected against any form of attack or litigation to legislation. It will be backed by the US Fed via swaps while the US publicly denies it is adding any capital to the IMF or this new entity, ESM.
It is the mechanism for QE to infinity in Europe.
QE to infinity, properly understood, is debt monetization on steroids. Denials will be legion, but this debt monetization on steroids will not and cannot be avoided.
The advent of the ESM Treaty establishing the European Stabilization Mechanism is economically Earth shaking and recognized by almost no one out there. It cannot be otherwise, it cannot be avoided. It can de denied but it will occur.
Respectfully,
Jim
http://www.jsmineset.com/
TITS
closed tonight at 86.88
A new alltime low
APMEX- Silver Eagles at spot
Buy up to 3 ASEs at spot with promo code "1STORDER" .
APMEX will sell you up to 3 ASEs at spot from now until 4/26 at 17:00 CT.
Put the promo code in at check out.
APMEX.COM
Well, Here I am. So What. (ode to Turd)
As mentioned earlier, I finally registered to my favorite website today. I read TF Metals every day, usually save it for last like a fine wine. Monedas brought me out of the woodwork with the cheese talk.
Here's my reflection on becoming a Turdite:
-have invested on the market since 18 years old. Learned a while ago to stop trying for home runs and try for singles instead, so did OK with MCD, INTC, etc. over past 10 years. Don't ask me about GNTA and other swings and misses....
-Had 10-1 ounce bars back in my teenage years, bought em for $4.something, sold them for $5.something, knew PM's would make me rich someday.
-All of a sudden around 2007 started buying ammo and then guns...XD's and AK's are the chosen breeds. Carry the XD subcompact.
-Around 2008 started getting the itch to buy metals. Holy Spirit told me to. Prefer maple leafs, philharmonics, and 90% junk Franklins and quarters. Have a "hobby" of asking every bank teller for 50-cent pieces. Actually get a lot of 40% and a BU roll of bank-fresh 1964 Kenedys this year (Bank of America seems best, Chase and Wells Fargo never have anything..)
-Yes I have SLV, please don't hate me. Also EXK, GPL, HL. I'm as upside down as most of us, and equally as frustrated.
-So Blessed to have a great Health Care Administration job and "wasn't born in Texas, but got here as fast as I could." Was on employer-paid trip to the Greenbrier about this time last year and sat before the computer that fateful Sunday night and realized that maybe PM's won't make me rich someday! At least not in May 2011.
-Love this website most of all, but also lurk at Jesse's and ZH and Harvey's and Rawles' and Patrice's and Alex's and the one with the talking bears and....
-Here are the things I'm most thankful about the this site:
1. God Bless whoever first posted the "bring the gold" video by Brad Neely, that led me to Professor Brothers, that led me to China Illinois, which is almost as big an obsession as TF metals is.
2. God Bless DarkPurpleHaze for the music videos! I'm a classic rocker from way back and you post some awesome memories! A pox on anyone who belittles the posting of videos.
3. Thanks to everyone for making this the most entertaining site on the web. The side discussions until we head to $50 and $2500 edify the soul and lighten the heart.
4. Whether Vegas or New York, I will see y'all at the Turd Convention.
So anyhow, will probably try to mostly lurk, cause I can't add much here that hasn't been said already, and I trust that most here know way more about Fibonachis and bullish engulfings and lease rates that I ever will.
-TStacker.
Skeptical Jim Sinclair's theory
Gold stocks are predominantly held by the West (IMF, US, individual European nations). Emerging markets (eg China) are short gold.
Its not in China's interest for a rapid appreciation in the gold price. It might be down the track when they have massive gold reserves and are ready to allow the Yuan to be fully convertible.
Jim has been reading too much Harvy Organ. Fact is, the WOPRs and specs typically on the long side have neither the inclination nor resources to take delivery. If you want physical you go any buy it for cash. I think the idea that China's move will lead to a dlivery failure and gold being bid, no offer is fanciful.
TxStacker
what part of TX do you live? There are a few Turdites in DFW.
Oh boy
Israeli Independence Day is this Thursday.
http://www.debka.com/article/21941/
@ TheGoodDoctor - YEA!!!!
Got a real job!!!
Tx
welcome to Turdville!
The index
If 86.88 was metric that would work out to about a 34 B cup. Sounds like Blythe alright. That would be an real low every morning.
South Woodlands, AKA Spring.
South Woodlands, AKA Spring. Houston metro.
Wow, my first night and
Wow, my first night and the BigGuy acknowledges me. Its like going to an Elvis concert and being invited for pnut butter and banana sandwiches backstage!
@ ed- It may not be the Yuan
China is on the path for controlling the world's reserve currency, but it may not be the Yuan. The Chinese are just shrewd enough business people to go through a phase where they begin borrowing money in Yuan based bonds/contracts, then crash the Yuan/default before introducing a new PM backed currency.
Way to go GoodDoc!
Way to go GoodDoc!
@ SaratogaPrepper- The index
B-cup barracuda
Now that was funny!
@Hayman
Sort of - "England" had a huge Foot and Mouth disease slaughter and also a smaller Mad Cow Disease slaughter.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1371964/The-recipe-for-disaster-that-killed-80-and-left-a-5bn-bill.html
But it's misleading to relate the British experience to anywhere else. Britain had an incredibly greedy animal feed company that used ground up cows (including their brains) as ingredients. So as soon as one cow with BSE went into the mix, tens of thousands more were infected. Hence the slaughter. I doubt anyone will be dumb enough to repeat that stunt.
Thank yous, welcomes and Chupacabra sightings
Thanks Turd, I suspected it would be low.
Welcome TexasStacker and you're damn straight right about Indi7/DPH and the music. One of the things that amazes me about this site is the common interests and tastes that many of us have.
I've got a Chupacabra sighting for you as well, it's my avatar Blythe (you'll have to imagine the chain smoking).
Z
Thanks Zoltan. BTW I forgot
Thanks Zoltan. BTW I forgot one thing:
As regards the highly entertaining "first car" off-topic discussion some weeks ago:
1972, custom blue, 350 V-8, Pontiac Ventura.
KITCO Check: still not quite to $50/oz.
Ventura Highway