Monday Night Discussion
Hot on the heals of the Sunday Night Discussion, here comes the Monday version. If you have a few minutes, I'd really appreciate your feedback on the following items.
First, a quick update on the open interest changes for Friday. Recall, first, that it was a relatively flat day with gold up $1.50 and silver down 13 cents. The gold OI was quite curious in that the front-month June dropped by a scant 24 contracts and the next delivery month of August dropped by only 1. One! Now, with total volume for Friday coming in at 137,937, do you find it more than a little strange that the two most active months only saw a drop of 25 contracts, combined? Just another sign that almost all of the Comex volume these days is HFT WOPRs that open and close positions intraday. (It could also be another sign that the CME-supplied data is simply bogus.) In silver, the total OI rose to a new 2012 high of 121,702 with most of the gains coming in the OI of the Sep12 contract. I will be very interested to see the OI numbers tomorrow (basis today) after today's EE beatdown. I would suspect that the total OI will show another rise to new 2012 highs as brand new shorts were added today.
Next, an interesting note for Mike Krieger's new site. Lots of folks seem to incorrectly misinterpret the abundance of "WE BUY GOLD" stores as a sign of a gold bubble when, in fact, it's the opposite signal. Additionally, the willingness of regular people to unload their gold in exchange for much-needed fiat speaks volumes to the true state of the economy. Now comes this story about pawn shops seeing a dramatic dropoff in the amount of gold exchanges. Is this "supply" of gold from weak hands nearly exhausted? Maybe. http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2012/04/23/are-pawn-shops-running-out-of-gold/
In world news, I thought this next piece neatly summarized the deteriorating situation in Europe where things are going from bad to worse to awful to crisis very quickly. http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-17-23/graham-summers’-weekly-market-forecast-here-comes-spain-edition
Lastly, please take five minutes and read this excellent new piece from Jim Quinn. As preparation for the FOMC nonsense this week and the BLSBS next, this article will strengthen your fortitude against the SPIN, MOPE and outright propaganda that is sure to come. http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=32878
OK, off you go then. See you tomorrow. TF
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Comments
Some history on........... FUCK YOU!
The History of the Middle Finger!
Well, now......here's something I never knew before, and now that I know it,
I feel compelled to send it on to my more intelligent friends in the hope that they, too, will feel edified.
Before the Battle of Agincourt in 1415, the French, anticipating victory over the English, proposed to cut off the middle finger of all captured English soldiers. Without the middle finger it would be impossible to draw the renowned English longbow and therefore they would be incapable of fighting in the future. This famous English longbow was made of the native English Yew tree, and the act of drawing the longbow was known as 'plucking the yew' (or 'pluck yew').
Much to the bewilderment of the French, the English won a major upset and they began mocking the French by waving their middle fingers at the defeated French, saying, See, we can still pluck yew! Since 'pluck yew' is rather difficult to say, the difficult consonant cluster at the beginning has gradually changed to a labiodentals fricative F', and thus the words often used in conjunction with the one-finger-salute! It is also because of the pheasant feathers on the arrows used with the longbow that the symbolic gesture is known as 'giving the bird.'
And yew thought yew knew every plucking thing.
Silver bottom in.........?
Our Lame Stream Media economic knuckleheads are talking about the AUD dropping against the USD.
This usually suggests that PM's are set to rise in USD, whist not rising in AUD's, so maybe the bottom is near?
Our fucktard Treasurer pledged $7B of slave money to the IMF.
Starving homeless kids on the streets and hospitals falling apart!
I hope these losers are held accountable one day as they continue to steal from the tax slaves?
"It could also be another
"It could also be another sign that the CME-supplied data is simply bogus."
'bleedin' in the miners...@Strawboss
@Strawboss-
Have to commiserate with you on "bleeding in the miners" - I'm in the same boat to some extent. I chalk it up to buying early on minor weakness, yet continue to add selectively to my positions. In my mind it comes down to this:
I get that there all sorts of paper games that can be played with the miners due to hedging, leveraging, etc, but regardless of the paper chase associated with miners, there can be no doubt that without them the supply of PM's hitting the retail market will cease. That said, my approach is to recognize that I probably loaded in a little early, but 5 to 10 years down the line, it won't matter. Now to put that in perspective, my miner position is about 1/3 of my phyzz holdings, so it's not a leveraged play to a large extent.
If you look closely, a similar parallel is emerging in the energy market via natural gas. The commodity itself is is really cheap, but in order for the world to prosper as a result of this cheap energy source, it needs to be transported from the source of cheap supply to the expensive demand. Same as the PM's needing to be converted from ore to bullion. The enterprises in the middle (CNG transport/dispensing/storage companies and PM miners) between the raw material and the consumer demand will reap significant gains over a long-term horizon.
Hang tight, recognize the trends for what they are and be patient. The deal is this: paper is paper, while the direct ownership of physical assets (PM's or rights to energy, food, etc.) and associated businesses is the long-term winning play. When the paper markets crash, stocks of primary producers held in your name, and phyz held in your hands is the basis for financial survival and your ticket to life on the other side. As with anything, diversification of risk across a spectrum of vehicles makes sense, but only you can decide for yourself what the right balance is.
For me, it's heavy on the PM's, heavy on physical ownership, diversification of locations where the physz is held, and a reasonable position with primary producers of energy, food, healthcare and critical commodities (PM's, rare earths, etc.). We'll see if the strategy works long term, but I can tell you that I sleep better knowing that I'm positioning myself to be somewhat protected form the forthcoming $h-t storm.
In the meantime, I surf and hang out with my kids and enjoy life. No sense getting morbid, just prepared......
@Dolomite
Great point re sterile govt confiscation of gold. I agree totally.
Think about it. If you were in power, and needed to gather up all of the many millions of odd gold jewelry rings, neclaces, etc, what better way to do it?
The real mystery is who is the big buyer behind the scenes who is paying the middlemen to source the gold? I say this, because I personally know a cash for gold retailer. This person sells to a middleman. No questions asked. Pure weight is all that matters, because all of it goes to the smelter.
The retailer makes good money, because the typical folks who sell the gold do so for 20¢ on the dollar. The middleman gets his cut. But WHO is the end buyer? And why now? There has been a ten or eleven year bull market in gold, but cash for gold has only really become part on the landscape in the past few years?
I see this as being just part of what we here at TFMetalsreport know to be the truth but, sadly, which understanding is being supressed by the mainstream media.
I will know the bubble mania blow off top in gold is near when Time magazine announces that Gold ownership is the new paradigm and the unemployed 25 year old sales guy tells me he quit his herbalife.amway job to sell gold bullion.
Until then, I stack.
DONT BET ON IT :(
Turd,
I LOVE your analysis, day in and day out ...
but one thing i think you totally FAIL to pay due respect to here is the same very thing you scream endlessly about ... MANIPULATION \ MANAGEMENT of markets.
IF you accept the premise of market manipulation \ management,
WHY ON EARTH WOULD THEY NOT BREAK THE TRENDLINE HERE?
If you could only do ONE thing to upset the metals market,
it would be BREAK THE MAJOR TREND LINE, along with the complimenting H&S and pennant patterns ... sure they will face major resistance ... but IF\ONCE they break it (by hook or by crook -- some BS Fedannouncement, game-changing rule, etc) the metals markets would essentially be in a sell-stop induced and capitulatory free fall ... with no support in site, and no rhyme or reason behind it's movement.
IF i had to make one bet this year, it would on some major hokus-pokus BS at this trend line point.
Think like THEM, not some FREE MARKET analyst ... nothing is FREE about this market. We ALL know it. :(
@Haole Guy
Yer shittin' me dude!
I've been collecting C-Notes for years. Never got one that old from ANYWHERE...especally from a bank no less!
Congrats!!!!
Edit: I mean older than the ones I bought.
PM PAPER MARKET
It has come to be very clear to all that the prices of metals can be taken to any level the EE wants. TA is very difficult unless one knows what and when that they will push the buttons. The paper market has been destroyed and since the rule of law is passed over, the future of the minors looks grim. We had hope when GDXJ was $42.40 and now $21.82, GDX was $66.98 and now $45.02, HL was $9.65 and today $3.98, AGQ was $191.04 and now $49.34 and DUST @ $53.62.
What will it "really" take to have honest and fair markets again in America??? How will the retirement funds of the future grow at even 3% per year? What will the 401K's look like for those retiring in 20 years?
Harvey says to only buy the real thing and stay away from paper P.M.'s. There is going to be a lot of paper suffering until after the elections in November and after the fireworks is over, the EE will still create the direction of the metals market. jmo
Libertads
Wish I could stay away from those Libertads. They've got to be the prettiest rounds out there. I'm always suckered into buying them when I see one. Just signed up for a few more - hope they don't sink coming across the Rio Grande like the last ones did.
Actually / China Gold . . . Iran Oil
Lets not lose focus here. IF China is really engaging at this level, they are risking elevating an already agitated situation. Even openly contemplating this move would mean a risk that the West would excuminicate China from SWIFT . . . Or at least cause the West to threaten such an action. Brinkmanship is not generally productive. The other critical point here is that those countries that already hold gold stand to benefit from oil trade denominated in gold. Just as the dollar has been mostly underpinned by demand related to oil, so too would gold. This would very likely stair step the price of gold several levels higher, and then stabilize in a slower ascending ramp (do to new demand dynamics). So if China made the move to use gold as the medium of exchange, other countries with gold would also be smart to make the move too as it would reinforce the value of their gold holdings. This is a reinforcing feedback loop. These are questions that are best kept in the dark and far from polite conversation . . . Only it is not in the dark . . . AND Forbes has purposefully made it an issue by plastering it in an article that I am sure will have an incresing potential to go viral if mentioned in tomorrow's TF comments . . . Maybe thats what Forbes wants . . . After all Steve is an admitted supporter of a hard asset standard.
Greatest swindle of all times?
Is there any doubt that the good old USA has engaged in the biggest swindle of all times? Who else could have traded a bunch of worthless paper to the Arabs for oil and to the Chinese for everything else under the sun. Once they figure it out I'll bet they will be pissed.
The closing bottom for silver is in.
As per my previous post made 3-05-2012, my work projected a closing low bottom for April 23, 2012. However, instead of hitting the anticipated .786 retracement of the move from December, 28, 2011, to the high made on February 28, 2012, of $28.60, it hit a perfect .618 retracement at $30.49. ( I use Net Dana London Spot Silver price) Time was perfect, but the retrace was weaker than anticipated. Several other items to consider: One year to the date from high to low was a point that W.D. Gann considered very important for a turn around. Also, the "shakeout" will loosen all the very last weak hands. My Elliott Wave count shows a potential 3 of 3 of 3 wave coming, for the upside move. A really awesome move.
RG
Posted a boatload of charts,
Posted a boatload of charts, even some of gold. Check it out at
HawaiiTrading, these are the best of the best.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2012/04/boatload-o-charts.html
China/Iran Gold for oil...
How about this scenario:
China pays for Iran oil with gold.
Iran, needing both gasoline and food, buys it from Brazil by also paying with gold.
Brazil, as they only have 33 tons of the barbarous relic, accept that gold with glee.
All three of them grin like a little clam, while the West stews in it's own juices.
My 2 cents.
Audi.
extensive Steve Keen podcast interview
http://www.extraenvironmentalist.com/episode-39-debunking-economics/
Serves them right for having supported the mil ind complex
"Omer Petti is a 95-year-old USAF veteran with artificial knees and a heart condition. Madge Woodward, his partner, has an artificial hip. They recently flew home to Detroit from San Diego, and were humiliated and robbed at the San Diego airport TSA checkpoint. The metal in their bodies set off the TSA magnetometer, and Petti was instructed to put his $300 in cash in a bin. Then he was further detained when a swab detected the nitroglycerin residue from his heart pills. He and Woodward were subjected to humiliating patdowns, and then discovered that their $300 had gone missing. When Petti asked where his money had gone, the TSA agent required he and Woodward to remove their shoes again and empty out their pockets, and asked if they were "refusing his request" when they objected. The TSA manager checked the security footage, but reported that it was "too blurry" to see what had happened to the money. The two elderly people were loaded into their wheelchairs and taken to their plane at full tilt, barely making it. They never got their money back. "
Welcome to Obamaville
That's the norm isn't it? The spoils of the election process and its resulting thugocracy.
China and USA
When a challenger is strong enough to take on the leader there is much posturing and strutting, a lot of mouthing off and sensing and testing the others confidence. This is how I see the current China US skirmishes.
Then, when this phase is done, and neither has backed down, the horns will be locked and the real battle begins. Sometimes the fight is short when the weaker quickly acknowledges they are incapable of winning and retreats, or it can be a fight to the death.
Morning Toons
Tears Of A Clown
Free At Last?
And finally...
What's the answer?
What's the answer to our debt problem?
The price of the PM's don't mean anything until that question is answered.
Just stack and know you have a Plan B. It may or may not work out, but history is on your side that it will work out.
RE: Barnhardt
Yeah, she's pretty fanatical. BUT, in her defense, and philosophically speaking, you have to understand that something either is or it is not. If it IS, then it is all the way, 110%. If it is NOT, then may the heavens beat down on those who think it is. This is especially true regarding the powers of good and evil.
If Bernanke and TPTB are printing us into the depths of hell, you better be among the first to leave the Dollar boat. There is no thinking "hey this is a little extreme don't you think?" If this madness of bailouts and excess printing and useless spending, all the while ignoring the real needs of the american people, if it is all evil, then it is so 110% and ought to be treated as such. Not repeatedly questioned as if you are in doubt. If it is, then it is so, 110%. It is only your emotions that tell you otherwise thereafter. Facts and documented evidence do not care about how you feel, and they do not care if you get left behind.
I am saying all this to open the eyes of people that tend to not like extremism. Extremism has had a bad reputation lately, but truth be told, sometimes extremism is extremely necessary, and the more force exerted ealier on, the better off we will all be in the future. As they say, desperate times call for desperate measures. Ask yourself, ARE WE IN THE ELEVENTH HOUR OF THE REPUBLIC? Ask it firmly and shake off your apathy. Make your decision and stick to it.
When truth surfaces amidst all lies, when the light appears amidst all darkness, you better cling to it and never leave it, because that truth may be the one thing that saves your very life.
EDIT: One other thing....extremism is not just found in politics and religion. That a misconception a lot of people have. Inward extremism is found in any great historical figure, successful sportsman, and really anyone who has overcome great adversity in their personal lives. Without extreme devotion to their goal, they would have never succeeded. Not George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Juilius Caesar, Jaon of Arc, Jesus Christ, Ghandi, MLK, and the list goes on and on.
Can we all cut the wilting
Can we all cut the wilting flower drama shit ? What we are going into is going to make us wish we were back in the 70s (79 track this one). Not directed at anyone...jog on :)
Zilver
I generally don't respond to your posts, as they lack any facts, often lack links to quotes, and never offer any thoughtful substantiation for your rather simplistic, cliche, run-of-the-mill, 'I'm a Sophomore now at <fill in the blank> University' - style opinions. Much like arguing with a small child...maybe I'm just in a bad mood, or maybe it's because you're seriously stupid enough to think that a 95 year old couple deserves that treatment because 75 years ago he 'supported the mil-ind-complex' when he got drafted.
Fuck You, Eurotrash Bitch.
Everyone else, have a nice day.
No way politicians can keep a
No way politicians can keep a lid on this........historical debt coming down the pipes.
My simple offering and then I will crawl back into my Speakeasy seat :)
FOMC
When are the minutes for the FOMC coming out?
Big Buffalo
the minutes come out May 16th.
What's Next
Items we expect to post to our web site over the next two months, including speeches, congressional testimony, Federal Open Market Committee material, and statistical releases issued less frequently than weekly. Meetings of the Federal Reserve Board and all statistical releases are shown elsewhere.
April
Two-day meeting, April 24-25
May
Foreign Exchange Rates
Consumer Credit
3:00 p.m.
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
9:15 a.m.
Meeting of April 24-25, 2012
2:00 p.m.
The daily and weekly statistical releases scheduled for today will be released on Tuesday, May 29.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/whatsnext.htm
Reuters report that the EU
Reuters report that the EU has agreed to freeze the assets of the Iranian central bank and ban all trade in gold and other precious metals with the Iranian Central Bank and other public bodies in Iran.
According to IMF data, at the last official count (in 1996), Iran had reserves of just over 168 tonnes of gold. The FT reported in March 2011 that Iran has bought large amounts of bullion on the international market to diversify away from the dollar, citing a senior Bank of England official.
Currency wars continue and are deepening.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/currency-wars-iran-banned-trading-gold-and-silver