Pailin's Trading Corner

Sold LNG into bounce. Only thing I am trading in a decided uptrend these days.

ES unfortunately measures to 1328. It took out its midpt at 1358 area easily which portends more selling for another 30 pts. This would be the 2nd leg down that will be Bernank's limp hindfoot lifted to urinate further on Markets come Wednesday. He is always reliable for it.

Miners will follow ES down. Will look for good DUST entry pts and only very short term trade for bounces in this junk. Buying falling pianos is not my thing in this sector. Used to be BTFD now its Dodge Falling Pianos or DFP trade.

Check out TEF.  Same price today as 2003, well below '08/09 panic, end-of-the-world lows.   Pays a 11-12% dividend.  Most of the biz is South American.  Generational low.

Bought another huge chunk today, building giant position (also long-dated calls, which are now being given away with every Tupperware purchase).

Europe (bigger economy than the U.S) cannot even dream about letting Spain go--they will be rescued, by whatever means necessary (hint: ECB Ctrl P).

I expect a conservative 50% return in 12-18 mos.

and taking DVN with it apparently. Thanks for the recommendation, atlee.

"Sunoco (SUN) confirms discussions with Carlyle Group about setting up a JV for its 330,000 bpd refinery in Philadelphia. SUN, which has placed the facility on the selling block, says it would emerge from the deal as a minority owner. Carlyle would contribute an undisclosed amount of cash and would become operator of the facility."

http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/264621

Sold full FAZ position at Europe close time, guessing that ES will recover some after the Pain in Spain is less Insane. Will pyramid back into FAZ, never giving up the dream of a rocket shot with enough escape velocity to avoid losing account value like I did in 2008.

Oh yeah..Main St = ZH ...Read for entertainment only.

International Brotherhood! 

Amen--I'm a patriotic libertarian, but really, this ain't the next American Revolution, and I trade for the money--the rich and powerful will always be with us.

Is that a massive wave of printing on both sides of the Atlantic will have the desired effect of boosting everything upwards.  I humbly suggest two very important alternative scenarios:

1. Following the law of diminishing returns, consider the possibility that the next bullet fired by the Fed and the ECB will fail in its purpose and the selling will quickly resume and intensify.

2.  Consider the idea that TPTB already know about pt. 1, and are leaning toward austerity measures, debt forgiveness and a completely new monetary system/agreement.  They could completely bypass the printing angle and could jump to a second stage.  The deflationary aspect of this second choice may be inevitable and outright brutal.  Could be accompanied by lots of war and unrest to make the whole mix very spicy. 

My point is this:  Everyone and their mother are anticipating QE3.  That is a very bad thing IMO and lends to the very likely possibility of a different ending to this story. 

Its possible that the Market today is discounting what the Gnome will say on Wednesday. This could set up a turnaround. I doubt it. It has more the feel of a crowd wanting to muscle its way out of a revolving door following a fire alarm.

The notion of waiting on QEIII is utterly pathetic imo. How has that trade paid off in the past? First there will be a deflationary wave, then the QE will come then an announcement after the fact using a different name and a mass of deliberately confusing data that more resembles the sewage piping beneath Manhattan. 

I think Spain is a very real and serious problem and making assumptions around it is something out of my league.

Happy, hope it works out for ya. We have very different trading styles. I make about one trade a week on average and don't look at anything under an 8 hour chart. Day trading is monetary suicide imo. I don't feel I can beat the Borg with anything besides dumb luck and that runs out eventually. Best of luck and I do think we can both make money...

Gold is being very stubborn. Silver has broken support well. A close below 31.10 and 1630 is important to put the bears in charge. I really don't want to go back to another trading range...

SW,

It's not so much about assumptions about Spain and/or Italy or any other European nation.  When Europe falls it will not be ascribed to the weakness of any one nation.  It will be a Euro Union mismanagement of sorts.  We waited months for Greece to declare and its not even a quarter of the size of Spain.  My main point is that the take down won't be as obvious as that.  This seems to be the preferred strategy imo.

Gold is doing exactly what I expected.   My problem if there is one, is that silver was supposed to do that too.

I know that's not help.  I just needed to get that off my chest.