We Are SO Screwed

Before we get into the usual metals discussion today, I thought I'd take a moment to discuss what is being called "Taxmageddon". Not for the fiscal or economic policy ramifications but as a perfect example of just how hopelessly broken the political system in the United States has become.

If you haven't heard of Taxmageddon, don't feel badly. It was a topic that ramped up in popularity into Tax Day back on Tuesday but now will surely drift back into obscurity in the weeks and months ahead. What Taxmageddon essentially is is this: Without Congressional action, almost all tax cuts and changes initiated within the past 10 years will expire on January 1, 2013. This includes changes to the Alternative Minimum Tax, the "marriage penalty", rates paid on dividends and interest, the "payroll tax deduction" and so on and so on. For a more detailed summary, here are links to a New York Times story and a Fox News story on the subject:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/15/sunday-review/coming-soon-taxmageddon.html?pagewanted=all

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/04/17/taxmageddon-coming-answer-could-cost-americans-500-billion/

I bring up all of this NOT for a discussion about tax policy and "fairness". That's all bullshit and, frankly, anyone that falls into the trap of arguing about this stuff is simply playing into the politicians hands. What I want you to take away is this:

Congress knows that this is a MAJOR PROBLEM. Coming up with a plan and fixing this should be THEIR PRIMARY OBJECTIVE over the summer. BUT THEY WON'T DO IT.

Instead, everything out of Washington will be simple theater ahead of the November elections. The Republicans don't want to be seen as raising taxes ahead of the election and the Democrats don't want to be seen as lowering taxes. None of these freaking politicians will DO THEIR JOB because they are more concerned about KEEPING THEIR JOBS.

So, what will happen? After the election, Congress will be called in for a "lame duck" session in December. It's called that because, typically, nothing substantial gets done, primarily because a significant portion of the reps have just been voted out. This lame duck session, however, will be charged with fixing all of the Taxmageddon problems, in about 3 weeks, again using the votes of representatives and senators who have just been removed from office but whose terms don't expire until January. Ain't that great???!!! This also means that, for the rest of 2012, no individual and no corporation can make any concrete plans (including hiring) because of the utter uncertainty regarding the tax code for 2013. And these political deltabravos can't seem to figure out why the economy isn't "recovering"!

Do you see now why we are so helplessly screwed? It's all about politics and control. None of the Republocrats gives a rat's behind about you or me or anything. All they care about is getting re-elected. Period. And if there are any of you out there naive enough to believe that if we can just get O'Bomney (re)elected all will be well, I suggest you get up from your computer right now and go stick your head back into your kid's sandbox.

Next, I suggest you read this. I don't agree entirely with the author's opinions but I certainly share some of them: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-fake-conservatives-dangerous-freedom-obama

Anyway, I don't mean to sound hopeless and defeated but it's always a fine line between realism and cynicism. As we plod forward, we all simply need to stay on the side of realism. Pay attention, think for yourself and trust your instincts. The current system is not fixable and the status quo will not be maintained. If you think you can affect change on a grand scale, please give it a try. We are counting on you and hoping you will be successful. However, in the interim, the only sensible option for everyone else is to continue to prepare accordingly for the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment and/or the end of the Great American Experiment, whichever comes first.

The metals are rebounding this morning after being savagely beaten during London trading. On the bright side, chart support continues to hold on the Comex. Gold is still stout above $1630 and silver keeps catching a bid every time it moves toward $31.30. I don't know about you but I'll take it! Of course we still run the risk of a brief, gun-the-stops drop but, as long as we continue to set a base here, the chances are increasing that bottoms are in and the next UP move will soon commence.

paper_4-19amgold.jpgpaper_4-19amsilv.jpg

Following on with the technicals are the fundos. Below is a C&P of a comment I tucked into the last post regarding the latest OI numbers and the coming CoT. I thought I should reprint it here so that you were sure to see it.

This week's CoT is going to be extremely interesting!
For the reporting week, here's what we have:
GOLD down about $10 and total OI down about 5,400 contracts. Almost certain to show a bullish improvement.
SILVER down 15 cents and total OI was UP by 7,000 contracts. May show a significant improvement.
​So, anyway, you know that I think the stage is set for a massive silver short squeeze. The silver CoT on Friday should only add fuel to the fire. We'll see...
Lastly, tonight's OI numbers are also amazing. Again, this data is basis yesterday's Comex close:
Gold total OI fell about 2300 contracts yesterday to 398,526 while price rose a scant $1.60. Not only is this a new low for 2012, it's a new low for the last 2.5 years.
Silver OI rose yesterday by 3,200 contracts (while price rose just 30 cents). At 121,448, total OI is, by far, the highest it's been for all of 2012.
Something very unusual is taking place here. Very unusual. We'll look back, 6-8 weeks from now, and be able to say that "the clues were there, why didn't we see it coming?".

Here's one bit of commentary for you today from JS Kim. It seems the brutal, 6,000+ contract dump on Tuesday caught his attention, as well: http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-16-19/weekly-dose-gold-silver-market-manipulation

Lastly, just an additional THANK YOU to all who Fed The Turd over the past 24 hours. We have now successfully raised enough funds to pay any outstanding bills as well as make the adjustments necessary to hopefully stop the site from crashing so often. Your generosity continues to amaze me and I am truly humbled by the outpouring of support. It is my sincere hope that I can continue to provide insight that you deem worthy of your attention and interest.

TF

278 Comments

punchbowl's picture

Columbian yoni or Yoni Jacobs?

Definition:  Yoni (Sanskrit: योनि yoni) is the Sanskrit word for the vagina.[1]

nothing about this guy makes sense.

Dr G's picture

@Xty, LOL. I read a story

@Xty, LOL.

I read a story about those Secret Service guys on ABC.com. The article said that when they were out partying with the hookers they told them that they were "working for President Obama."

One of the reader's comments on that article made me laugh out loud. He said something like:

"The nerve of those Secret Service agents! I would never do what they did. They must have no pride. Who would admit to working for Obama!?"

Made me LOL.

I Run Bartertown's picture

Fair

"As I see it, the fairest thing would be to indenture all living members of Congress and the Federal Reserve, past and present, to lifelong hard labor on agricultural plantations to start paying off this massive bill they’ve incurred at our expense and without our consent. I would also insist that their suffering be broadcast on C-SPAN 24 hours a day under blinding Klieg lights so they never really get to sleep. Like the Buffett Rule, this would be a symbolic gesture that has little effect on the deficit. But it would have the incalculably positive result of frightening all wannabe future financial vampires seeking to gorge themselves on the public jugular vein"

http://takimag.com/article/take_your_fair_share_and_shove_it_jim_goad/page_2#axzz1sWMHwrpM

 

Dr G's picture

@dmanson, well that's a rhino

@dmanson, well that's a rhino head. But what do I know. Any searches for a rhino horn trading pattern simply lead back to this thread!

achmachat's picture

yoni vajayjay

to be honest, I think that yoni guy is quite smart.

By writing that book, he managed to get a whole lotta free press and publicity. Every analyst buys his book,even if it's just so that they know what he's writing, to be able to tell that it's baseless etc.

yoni vajayjay is making more fiat with this book than without this book. He probably is a secret gold-stacker when nobody is watching ;-)

MisesPunch's picture

Yoni Jacobs

Seems legit.  His backtested strategy has "shown backtested returns of 915% in a ten year span from 2001 to 2011."  He did graduate in 2009 so he's clearly an expert. /sarcasm.

http://www.linkedin.com/in/chartprophet

MisesFan's picture

Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars

http://deanhenderson.wordpress.com/2012/01/10/the-iraniraq-war-mutual-assured-destruction/

Lebanon was for decades an offshore banking haven utilized by the CIA via Edmund Safra’s Republic Bank and a web of Beirut drug and gold smugglers. Henry Kissinger is a friend of Safra. Both sat on the board of American Express.  When Syrian-backed Arab nationalists took control of Lebanon they cracked down on drug money laundering.  Republic moved its headquarters to New York where it continued to be a major player in the gold market.  In 1999 Republic was bought by a bigger goldfish- HSBC.

British, Israeli and American bankers were forced to move their operations to Dubai and Bahrain, while their MI6, Mossad and CIA goons harassed the new Lebanese government.  In 1982 the USS New Jersey shelled Beirut in its backing of pro-Israeli Lebanese militia leader Amin Gemayel. That same year Israeli Defense Minister Ariel Sharon, now the country’s prime minister, oversaw the massacre of hundreds of Lebanese at Sabra and Shatila.  In January 2002 Gemayel, who took part in the massacre under Sharon’s command, was gunned down as he was about to testify on the ordeal before a Belgian court. [5]  The court indicted Sharon for war crimes anyway.

Hezbollah retaliated to the massacres by kidnapping CIA Chief of Middle East Operations William Buckley.  Buckley had been the CIA contact to the mid-1970’s Argentine fascists, who tossed 30,000 suspected leftists into the Atlantic Ocean. [6]  Buckley was tortured and left for dead, but not until Hezbollah made videotapes of Buckley singing about CIA black operations in the region.  Hezbollah was still holding five other CIA agents as hostages.

pourty's picture

@Starlight re: Cell Phone Anti-Tracking & Eavesdropping Sleeve

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the downside to this "sleeve" for your phone is that it blocks all signals in or out, basically rendering your cell phone into a useless brick.  Seems like it defeats the purpose of having a cell phone?  It certainly limits the usefulness, and therein lies the rub: if we want to be secure from snoopers (of the criminal and/or government kind), we must give up the easy constant access.  There really is no other way to be sure you are being bugged in some way.

Sad but true.

Welcome to the "Brave New World".

Excalibur's picture

ESM

I see the European Stability Mechanism as completely the opposite of stability (no surprise in the Owellian speak there).

This is all about Germany. If it does not withdraw before it comes into being, it will be on the hook for all the debt (current and future) of the eurozone.  This is clear to any German who can read and watch the TV and certainly clear to the Bundesbank.   If it withdraws it will leave the euro and the ECB will print to infinity for the bankrupt South. 

If it does not withdraw before July I can only imagine there will be internal strife in political circles like we haven't seen for decades in Germany and social unrest. There would be moves to oust Merkel. Of course politicians are masters at can kicking and so we may see delay in implementation instead. That in itself would produce panic. Currency controls may be weeks away. 

Either way the hubris and folly of the EU is drawing towards High Noon of the 'Euro Project' 

SE's picture

@ Page at 10:26 AM: Please

@ Page at 10:26 AM:

Please look at a silver chart.  You'll see that we have gone from peak to the next about 2-3 years apart.  Why should we get anywhere near $45, never mind above $50 before May of *** 2013 ***?  I want to say that it's going to be more like late 2013 before it will get underway aboove $50.  I just don't see James Turk's prediction happening.  Unless the whole world cooperates in buying up the silver so fast that COMEX can't get any from the refiners, OR CFTC finally enforces the rules (I don't see it happening, though).

For chrissakes, prove me wrong for a change.  I'm tired of waiting for silver to go through the roof so that I can pay off my bills and get out.  I've been working and waiting patiently for over 7 years towards that day, and I realize I will have to wait a bit longer (2 years?  5 years?), but hopefully before Terminators out of Japan are completed and UN soldiers are on every corner of all US cities.

Please??

I Run Bartertown's picture

Article on Republocrats

"The Washington Establishment Party (WEP) presented a deceptive “choice” to a confused, unwary American electorate. It must be evident to most neutral observers that the Democratic and Republican Parties constitute little more than two WEP front organizations and that there is no substantive difference between them save for style and spin. WEP is a revolving door for ambitious career politicians. "

"I no longer refer to this country as “America.” I call it “Ex America II” in light of the fact that the North American republic of 1789 is no more. It was obliterated by the bloodbath variously called “the Civil War,” “the War Between the States,” or by my Southern diehard friends, “the War of Northern Aggression.” The last term is most accurate. The conflict commenced in 1861 when Lincoln decided to prevent the Southern states’ peaceful secession. Thus ended the republic of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, and John Adams, and along with it the US Constitution.

In its place came “Ex America,” which lasted from 1865 until Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s Big Brother regime in the 1930s. Since then, it’s been “Ex America II.” It is a world of fear, fantasy, and force along the lines of Charles Beard’s “perpetual war for perpetual peace” and Henry Miller’s “air-conditioned nightmare.” I’m referring to World War II, the Cold War, and now Washington’s crowning achievement, GWOT, the “Global War on Terror.” GWOT is predicated upon an alleged all-consuming “clash of civilizations” between the West and a reawakened Islamic world. This is a contrived scenario, albeit widely accepted by the misinformed. "

http://takimag.com/article/same_election_different_year_patrick_foy/page_2#axzz1sWMHwrpM

 

HeNateMe's picture

@RaulP

How do you know that your neighbors driving their shiny cars and shit are any happier than you are right now?  They may be miserable behind closed doors, not to mention up to their eyelids in debt.

Please don't think that lots of purchased useless crap makes anyone happier than anyone else.  Maybe in the short term, like a line off the glass-topped coffee table, but whatever goes up must come down, and sometimes returns to earth in a ball of fire.

But go sell your stack if you want, no matter.  This is a game of patience.  Those that hold their silver balls the longest will win.  That's why we are called STRONG HANDS.

HeNateMe

Monedas's picture

When do we get to see Obama's Secret Service goofballs !

They aren't spies in deep cover as their name suggest....they are very public people....they are picked to be in public....no uglies....so where are they ?  Shame is a time honored punishment and a good place to start !   Monedas  2012   Comedy Jihad Fire Up The Firing Squad !  devil

Xty's picture

Just to clarify Santa's words:

       

                                                                                                                                         Rhino Horn

worldend666's picture

@RaulP

Look on the bright side. At least you didn't max out your credit card to buy depreciating assets like 90% of America.

Monedas's picture

Whatever the market will bear !

Usury Laws are price controls and don't work !  Monedas  2012  Comedy Jihad Slattery Unflattery  devil

I Run Bartertown's picture

MisesFan

"...who tossed 30,000 suspected leftists into the Atlantic Ocean"

was it Shakespeare that said that's "a good start"?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Condor

Dr G's picture

I don't know what we are

I don't know what we are discussing anymore.

HeNateMe's picture

@ Dr G

"I don't know what we are discussing anymore."

Hilarious...!

HeNateMe

Gold Buffalo's picture

Silver Weekly Chart since Feb. 2010

Just looking at the Silver Weekly Chart at Jesse's http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

I count the following.  Many commentators are saying there is indecision in the Silver market at present.  If indecision suggests it could go either way, which is most likely given the pendulum swings we have seen over the past year?  In all of the DOWN moves, the major downdrafts occurred in the first 3-4 weeks of the move.  One exception was the Dec. 2011 DOWN move which picked up steam even after week 6.  Now we are at week 8 of the current DOWN move.  Of course, one year is probably too short a period of time to be looking at this, but it captures the increased volatility during this time.  Seems like we are due for an UP move but WTFDIK.

2010 Feb-May UP Move 14 weeks total (9 pos. wks, 5 neg. wks)

2010 May-Aug SIDEWAYS/DOWN Move 14 weeks total (6 pos. wks, 8 neg. wks)

2010 Aug-Dec UP Move 21 weeks total (17 pos. wks, 4 neg. wks)

2011 Jan-Feb DOWN Move 4 weeks total (1 pos. wk, 3 neg. wks)

2011 Feb-Apr UP Move 14 weeks total (13 pos. wks, 1 neg. wk)

2011 May-June DOWN Move 10 weeks total (1 pos. wk, 9 neg. wks)

2011 July-Sept UP Move 9 weeks total (6 pos. wks, 3 neg. wks)

2011 Sept DOWN Move 5 weeks total (0 pos. wks, 5 neg. wks)

2011 Oct UP Move 4 weeks total (3 pos. wks, 1 neg. wk)

2011 Nov-Dec DOWN Move 9 weeks total (2 pos. wks, 7 neg. wks)

2012 Jan-Feb UP Move 8 weeks total (5 pos. wks, 3 neg. wks)

2012 Mar-Apr DOWN Move 8 weeks total SO FAR (1 pos. wk, 7 neg. wks)

Monedas's picture

It takes a Barter Village !

Thanks for the hat tip, Bro !  I'm upset that 30,000 Argentinian leftists got free Neptune "Burials at Sea" at tax payer expense !  They should have sprinkled them around the Falklands to bolster their pathetic claim to South Sea Oil Fields !   Monedas  2012   Comedy Jihad Sheep Reaper  devil

Turd Ferguson's picture

from my friend, Bet

MODERATOR

medium_securedownload.jpeg

Magpie's picture

ESM

Holy crap.  I knew the treaty had been signed last year, but I had no idea about the actual protections that organization had given themselves.    How did they get sovereign nations to consent to this?  It sure looks like the ESM is now the King of the EU....free to tax whomever it chooses, whenever it choose, until every nation is sucked dry.  Has the NWO officially been installed in Europe?  I guess we'll find out in July when they start demanding Euros from those who were foolish enough to sign up.  I can't imagine any way that this could end well.

I guess for now we can be grateful it wasn't called the Global Stabilization Mechanism.  If so, Zero would have signed it via an EO.

Baikalic's picture

SRSrocco, RRJJ

First SRS good on ya for continuing to keep discussions on energy mining in the mix here. While I came out here thinking I was going to provide something new here in the energy space it turns out that you are already doing a great job. Now that my final quarter in my Master's engineering thesis is spinning up I'll have no time anyway.

I would like to comment on your (and RRJJ's) thoughts on climate change and its deprioritization. I don't think it should be for two reasons. One, I think that if peak oil can be considered the bullet that will put an instant kibosh on life in the economic body, then climate change is the cancer that will steadily and inevitably destroy it for all time. This is because the activation of so many natural feedback loops such as those you mentioned SRS (methane release for instance) will probably end the climate stability that has made agriculture possible. If you overlap the time that settled civilization has existed with historical temperature variations, you'll find that we have been blessed with an unusually stable period:

I think it is highly likely that agriculture is only viable within the temperature zone we have now, and the destabilization of this zone will have serious ramifications that will threaten our very ability to maintain societies.

SECOND, the very sticky patch we now find ourselves in in the early 21st century has causes that can be addressed with matching efforts. For instance, peak oil and climate change can both be addressed with transitions away from the consumerist lifestyle and economic paradigm of endless and wasteful product/service exchanges. It is also in our collective interest to abandon this obselete lifestyle for our health, mental and physical. As many in this community have indicated, it was never the panacea for universal human aspirations as TPTB have tried to advocate. The things we all desire, social acceptance, love, and connection with real success don't require us to be competing for digital wealth and recklessly borrowing from the future.

I guess my point is at the end of the day the major challenges we face are all pointing towards the fact that we have a new social, economic, political narrative on the table. If we don't face this new reality, then any number of "crises" such as financial collapse, peak oil, climate change, soil erosion, or even the occasional world war will ultimately and inevitably lead us to ruin, regardless of any temporary band-aid fixes that we can come up with.

Dr G's picture

Turd, funny. Nay, hilarious.

Turd, funny. Nay, hilarious. It dawned on me a last year that Clinton was a much better president than Obama is.

dmanson's picture

@ Xty

I hope you don't take this the wrong way, but I actually do know what both fishing poles and rhino's horns are in real life.  devil

I was hoping for some examples on charts for the Rhino Horn, as charts don't look like that (go backwards at the top).  Just wondering if anyone has ever seen them and if so, could they kindly direct it to me.  

I guess I could ask Santa to clarify too.  

Turd Ferguson's picture

An oldie but a goodie

MODERATOR

At the time I joined ZH, my choice of "handle" was either Turd or Colonel as I'd been using both on various sites. For ZH, I chose TF and the rest is...as they say...histoire. However, The Colonel might be the most witty SNL sketch ever written. For those of you who have never seen it, here's a link.

Btw, I've noticed that there is a Turdite named "Colonel Angus". I think this is great but, as they say, if he overstays his welcome, just tap him on the head.

"Colonel Angus may be rough. Colonel Angus may not smell like a bed of roses but, deep down, Colonel Angus is very sweet." 

Mudsharkbytes's picture

I about suffocated…

on that Colonel Angus - from laughing, that is.

¤'s picture

Visual Index of Chart Patterns

I couldn't find a Rhino horn reference, but there is a horn reference at this site.

http://www.thepatternsite.com/visualcpindex.html

retireyoung's picture

Raul P

From time to time, I recheck this website because there are often positive and challenging ideas being presented.  I usually disagree but so be it.  But your posting has inspired this response:

Yes, I believe that you have made a mistake with your money and are acting as a sheeple just as many people here warn against them.  Sites like this one and Zerohedge, while as I said, present challenging ideas, also have the potential to create their own hysteria and cause actions detrimental to the person reading.  To put a huge amount of your income into any one investment vehicle is dangerous.  

To argue that even though you are losing money on your physical--it will eventually go up and you will regain your loss--is bogus.  I have no way of proving this but I would seriously bet that most people who have been following Turd and his charts and the advice given by others on this Board are seriously losing money.  

I am not saying that PM's should not be a part of your investment portfolio but to go overboard as apparently Raul did (and others on this Board) is detrimental to your financial wellbeing.

Also detrimental and potentially quite dangerous is the repeated talk about guns and ammo.  Although many here do, I do not foresee a world where huge amounts of privately held weaponry will be necessary.  The potential harm flowing from having those things around the house far outweighs any benefit.  The apparent fact that this site allows multiple postings on the pros and cons of various guns and ammo is potentially quite dangerous--although quite legal I am sure.

Also, here we are coming on being 1/3 through 2012 and war has not broken out in the Middle East (dekra to the contrary--a misleading website) and our Government has yet to break into our homes and take our precious metals.  Maybe just maybe those things will never occur--just think of that!

I do appreciate reading this site from time to time but if I did it every day or every week, I would become seriously frightened and miserable and I do not want to live my life that way.  I do appreciate the book reviews regarding the 11 million being killed and Joel Rosenburg's fine books--read them in order by the way--do not start with the Ezekiel Code.

My opinions may vary from some here but in my heart I do not believe that I am wrong.

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