We Are SO Screwed

Before we get into the usual metals discussion today, I thought I'd take a moment to discuss what is being called "Taxmageddon". Not for the fiscal or economic policy ramifications but as a perfect example of just how hopelessly broken the political system in the United States has become.

If you haven't heard of Taxmageddon, don't feel badly. It was a topic that ramped up in popularity into Tax Day back on Tuesday but now will surely drift back into obscurity in the weeks and months ahead. What Taxmageddon essentially is is this: Without Congressional action, almost all tax cuts and changes initiated within the past 10 years will expire on January 1, 2013. This includes changes to the Alternative Minimum Tax, the "marriage penalty", rates paid on dividends and interest, the "payroll tax deduction" and so on and so on. For a more detailed summary, here are links to a New York Times story and a Fox News story on the subject:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/15/sunday-review/coming-soon-taxmageddon.html?pagewanted=all

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/04/17/taxmageddon-coming-answer-could-cost-americans-500-billion/

I bring up all of this NOT for a discussion about tax policy and "fairness". That's all bullshit and, frankly, anyone that falls into the trap of arguing about this stuff is simply playing into the politicians hands. What I want you to take away is this:

Congress knows that this is a MAJOR PROBLEM. Coming up with a plan and fixing this should be THEIR PRIMARY OBJECTIVE over the summer. BUT THEY WON'T DO IT.

Instead, everything out of Washington will be simple theater ahead of the November elections. The Republicans don't want to be seen as raising taxes ahead of the election and the Democrats don't want to be seen as lowering taxes. None of these freaking politicians will DO THEIR JOB because they are more concerned about KEEPING THEIR JOBS.

So, what will happen? After the election, Congress will be called in for a "lame duck" session in December. It's called that because, typically, nothing substantial gets done, primarily because a significant portion of the reps have just been voted out. This lame duck session, however, will be charged with fixing all of the Taxmageddon problems, in about 3 weeks, again using the votes of representatives and senators who have just been removed from office but whose terms don't expire until January. Ain't that great???!!! This also means that, for the rest of 2012, no individual and no corporation can make any concrete plans (including hiring) because of the utter uncertainty regarding the tax code for 2013. And these political deltabravos can't seem to figure out why the economy isn't "recovering"!

Do you see now why we are so helplessly screwed? It's all about politics and control. None of the Republocrats gives a rat's behind about you or me or anything. All they care about is getting re-elected. Period. And if there are any of you out there naive enough to believe that if we can just get O'Bomney (re)elected all will be well, I suggest you get up from your computer right now and go stick your head back into your kid's sandbox.

Next, I suggest you read this. I don't agree entirely with the author's opinions but I certainly share some of them: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-fake-conservatives-dangerous-freedom-obama

Anyway, I don't mean to sound hopeless and defeated but it's always a fine line between realism and cynicism. As we plod forward, we all simply need to stay on the side of realism. Pay attention, think for yourself and trust your instincts. The current system is not fixable and the status quo will not be maintained. If you think you can affect change on a grand scale, please give it a try. We are counting on you and hoping you will be successful. However, in the interim, the only sensible option for everyone else is to continue to prepare accordingly for the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment and/or the end of the Great American Experiment, whichever comes first.

The metals are rebounding this morning after being savagely beaten during London trading. On the bright side, chart support continues to hold on the Comex. Gold is still stout above $1630 and silver keeps catching a bid every time it moves toward $31.30. I don't know about you but I'll take it! Of course we still run the risk of a brief, gun-the-stops drop but, as long as we continue to set a base here, the chances are increasing that bottoms are in and the next UP move will soon commence.

paper_4-19amgold.jpgpaper_4-19amsilv.jpg

Following on with the technicals are the fundos. Below is a C&P of a comment I tucked into the last post regarding the latest OI numbers and the coming CoT. I thought I should reprint it here so that you were sure to see it.

This week's CoT is going to be extremely interesting!
For the reporting week, here's what we have:
GOLD down about $10 and total OI down about 5,400 contracts. Almost certain to show a bullish improvement.
SILVER down 15 cents and total OI was UP by 7,000 contracts. May show a significant improvement.
​So, anyway, you know that I think the stage is set for a massive silver short squeeze. The silver CoT on Friday should only add fuel to the fire. We'll see...
Lastly, tonight's OI numbers are also amazing. Again, this data is basis yesterday's Comex close:
Gold total OI fell about 2300 contracts yesterday to 398,526 while price rose a scant $1.60. Not only is this a new low for 2012, it's a new low for the last 2.5 years.
Silver OI rose yesterday by 3,200 contracts (while price rose just 30 cents). At 121,448, total OI is, by far, the highest it's been for all of 2012.
Something very unusual is taking place here. Very unusual. We'll look back, 6-8 weeks from now, and be able to say that "the clues were there, why didn't we see it coming?".

Here's one bit of commentary for you today from JS Kim. It seems the brutal, 6,000+ contract dump on Tuesday caught his attention, as well: http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-16-19/weekly-dose-gold-silver-market-manipulation

Lastly, just an additional THANK YOU to all who Fed The Turd over the past 24 hours. We have now successfully raised enough funds to pay any outstanding bills as well as make the adjustments necessary to hopefully stop the site from crashing so often. Your generosity continues to amaze me and I am truly humbled by the outpouring of support. It is my sincere hope that I can continue to provide insight that you deem worthy of your attention and interest.

TF

278 Comments

Turd Ferguson's picture

I've got a TITS rating of

MODERATOR

90.63

Traditionally, readings under 100 have been perceived as quite bullish wink

GoldMania3000's picture

?Fat boy

We still haven't gotten to $40 silver yet

GuerrillaCapitalist's picture

Re: Lurker is In

Cool car. I can most certainly empathize with you. I'm a life long car nut and I addicted my son before he could walk. We've had a father son project going for the past 25 years and finished most of them. Currently we're restoring an old Bentley and hot rodding air cooled VWs. However most of our wrenching has been on tractors and assorted farm equipment lately.

Welcome to the finest group of humans to ever assemble on the web.

Excalibur's picture

Europe is SO screwed

Professor Karl Whelan from University College Dublin said the debate is absurd, whipped up by populists and the German media. "If the euro breaks up, there are still assets to go along with the liabilities. The likely outcome would be a 'Bretton Woods weekend' with a gentleman's agreement to carve up the losses."

"Even if countries told each other to go to Hell, the euro would simply cease to exist and the Bundesbank could write a cheque to itself. There would be no inflation and no loss to the German taxpayer," he said.

"We live in a world of fiat currencies, not the Gold Standard. People making these claims don't understand how a central bank works," he said. His views are shared by ECB experts.

Last para says it all really. The Emperor is being stripped piece by piece of non-existent  clothing. Very soon to be seen by all.

Full article http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9215232/German-tempers-boil-over-back-door-euro-rescues.html

Tyler's picture

Good laugh re Australia

thank you TF

SRSrocco's picture

REPLY.....SRSrocco

RRJJ....thanks for the comments.  I believe the reason why I see things a lot differently than most is due to a great deal of thinking and reflecting I do... a pastime my wife thinks I spend way too much time.

My thoughts on future investments are many times overshadowed by the concern I have for the possibility of BIG BLACK SWANS coming down on the States and the planet.  There are so many, I don't know where to start.  Here's one for KICKS and GIGGLES:

'Fountains' of methane 1,000m across erupt from Arctic ice - a greenhouse gas 30 times more potent than carbon dioxide

Looks like the methane holes that were reported to be a few meters wide several years ago in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf have grown considerably.  They found 100's of these huge holes and believe there are possibly thousands of them.  Methane is just pouring out of them rising straight into the atmosphere.

I realize many people don't adhere to GLOBAL WARMING or climate change.  I am not here to convince anyone.  But if it is true and we have made the BIGGEST MISTAKE for being so callous and stupid to allow ourselves to do this, worrying about our gold and silver may seem very silly at this time.

To be honest, I am not totally sure of the Global warming theory, but I would be in the camp of.... BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY.

I think Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hanity are by far the most damaging voices on the radio today.  It has nothing to do with Republican vs Democrat.  There is no soul left in this country.... MSM has turned the U.S. citizens into zombies.

Okay... enough of the SOAP BOX PROPAGANDA from me.

INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS IF THE WORLD DOESN'T END

1) Hold both Gold and Silver bullion (50% of each) 

2) If you do want to invest in mining companies.... buy those who have already have proven reserves and are producing or soon to produce metal (more on this later)

3) I don't own any paper assets whatsoever..... even energy (I don't trust the electronic trading systems)

4) Learn how to grow food

5) If you don't live in the country, find relatives that do or befriend someone that does... you may have to end up there sooner or later.

6) have a good sense of humor and throw large spit wads at the TV screen when STEVE LIESMEN is on CNBC.

Well..... that sums it up.

tobydaniel's picture

Debt Limit for dummies

dropout's picture

Gold Bubble: Impending Collapse!

"Gold is not a currency - it is an asset. A commodity."

So says Yoni Jacobs, chief investment strategist at Chart Prophet while being interviewed today on the Market Ticker program. He states so, in his new book entitled "Gold Bubble: Profiting From Gold's Impending Collapse."

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/gold-heading-700-author-sees-impending-collapse-124847501.html

Once more the bubble heads who's heads are full of nothing but bubbles, are marched out in procession to crow from the roof tops that, "The sky is falling The sky is falling!" Sell your gold. Buy GLD and GTX with as many shorts as you can afford!

As Turd says, they really must think we are stoo-stoo-stoopid! For one. I shake my head in disbelief, that some will actually believe this bozo! Do not be fooled by fools. Although he is right in one aspect, gold is Not currency. It is REAL money. Big difference between real money and fiat currency.  

SRSrocco's picture

REPLY.... GOLD BUBBLE: Impending Collapse

Yoni Jacobs is a COMPLETE FOOL and MORON... and is more than likely suffering from brain damage.  That is why my advice would be that anyone who has that opinion needs to check himself immediately into the nearest clinic and ask for a complete series of brain CATSCANS.

recaptureamerica's picture

US Secretary of State Clinton

US Secretary of State Clinton says calls for tougher actions against Syrian President Assad, and UN should act on Syria despite likely Russian veto

More criminal insane lawless behavior

Louie's picture

Add this to the reasons why we are screwed

You know all those budget projections that come out and say that our defect this year is going to be $1,2 trillion, and next year it will be $1.3 trillion?  Guess what?  All of those are scored by the CBO, based on the CURRENT tax laws.  So when they estimate that the deficit in 2013 will be $1,35 tril, that number is based on those taxes increasing, therefore increasing revenue.  So when the lame duck congress changes the laws so that those tax increases don't take effect, it will increase next years deficit. 

By the way, we have added $5 trillion to the national debt in the last 3 years! 

Three years from now, no way are we under $21 trillion. 

BTFD

Feed the Turd (On the monthly plan!)

Ned Braden's picture

SRSrocco

Your posts tend to be some of the finest here on TFM. Particularly appreciate your barbs aimed at Rush and Hannity,

both of whom are overbearing and arrogant, not to mention off the mark most of the time.

I used to listen to Rush for the humor factor; Hannity is simply unbearable anymore.

Thanks for all your analysis.

Ned

dmanson's picture

"Rhino Horn" chart pattern

Sorry if this is a little late but on the previous thread, a response from Jim Sinclair said this:

"David,

You are going to be ok in your silver position, however in the future you buy when weekly prices looks like a fishing line.  You sell 1/3 when weekly prices looks like a Rhino horn.

Cut this out and paste it on your computer.  Let us call this the "Two commandments in Precious Metals"

All the best,
Jim"

My question is this:  Can anyone provide me with a link or two for a "Rhino Horn" on a weekly chart?  I don't quite know what this looks like or what he means by this pattern and any help would be appreciate.  Thanks in advance Turdville.  laugh

RaulP's picture

It's darkest before the dawn?? or is it the longest night ever..

So, I started following silver when it was in the late teens.. made some money trading it and then thought of buying physical at $24.. my first 100oz at 24..then at 29 and then I bought monster boxes of silver in the low 30s..

And then I got overexcited and  bought a lot more in the rally to 50... so my average got screwed.. and in the recent smash-downs I almost maxed out my credit cards picking some more near 30s..  now that I have to pay a ridiculous APR on my cards..and my avg including premium sits at 35...and silver looks like its exhausted from a heavy beating.. is there any light of hope down the tunnel? Basically, I am paying interest on something that is in loss.. may be I should have waited and bought with cash, in hindsight.

Not to mention my long term options on SLW/gold miners are expiring worthless..All I have is my silver stash to console me, which in dollar cost averaging terms, is still in loss.

While doing all this, I was thinking I was smart and was preparing myself for the coming currency collapse/inflation/hyperinflation..whatever the case may be. And here I am, today..thinking was all this even worth the pain??

While all my friends, who are drinking the kool-aid have expensive cars and homes... and not an ounce of PM.. they seem to be happy and contended with their jobs and their lives.. Was I the big fool who put most of the money in phsycail silver and options on silver/gold miners?

recaptureamerica's picture

Wonder when the PPT gets

Wonder when the PPT gets their pink slips..

Magpie's picture

Jackpot!

Somewhere in the jungle, still crated, with their wings folded back along their bodies, covered in grease and wax paper, sit 20 brand new Spitfires buried in their original shipping crates...

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/british-farmer-david-cudall-finds-world-war-ii-spitfires-in-burma-2012-4

Dr G's picture

@dmanson, I believe he simply

@dmanson, I believe he simply means sell 1/3 when the weekly chart goes parabolic (or straight up). A fishing line would obviously be straight down.

dropout's picture

@RaulP - RE: Darkest

You are NOT wrong. Hang tight. A famous trader once said, "he who is right and waits tight, will win."

You are the winner. Think of the old parable comparing the grasshopper to the ant. You are the ant and your friends with their expensive cars and big homes are the grasshopper, partying it up at the expense of their future.

RRJJ's picture

Thanks SRSrocco

I'm a believer of global warming but I also think it's very low on the list of things that must be taken care of. The whole peak energy situation coupled with credit crisis being number one. I always find it funny when people in my surrounding keep telling me about their concerns for global warming. I answer that global warming is a concern for you since the media has told you so but would you really care about global warming if you couldn't feed your family.

Anyway, thanks for the investment tips. I agree with all your points and I'm trying to implement them. I'm invested in the miners though and in days like these they really are a drag. I've thought about selling them off for more billion instead but I just can't get away from what I feel is dirt cheap with great value. I'm even thinking that prospects with very low grades will be very profitable despite rising energy prices. I just think that PM prices will trump oil big time but I'm dying to read your thoughts on this.

Thanks once again for your great work!

Turd Ferguson's picture

Tabberto, thanks but

MODERATOR

can you please interpret into "American" for us?surprise

Response to: ding dong
Turd Ferguson's picture

Apparently Santa thinks this is important

MODERATOR

As important as the whole "Greek CDS/ ISDA" thing panic? I dunno. Worth a watch anyway.

Dear CIGAs,  

   

QE to Infinity is set in cement in the "European Stabilization Mechanism Treaty." This is the new European Union and the euro. It will be in place and operative by July of 2012.

 

Dr G's picture

apologies if it was already

apologies if it was already posted

clip_image004

and Drudge/NY Daily News says this is the actual woman that "brought down the Secret Service"...linky: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/secret-service-colombian-hooker-scandal-escort-explosive-scandal-article-1.1064287

image.jpg

tmosley's picture

I want to hear more about

I want to hear more about these methane fountains.

I don't believe in AGW as it currently stands (CO2 causing global warming) based on my own calculations.  Rather, I think that if humanity has an effect on the climate, it comes from the continuous injection of WATER into the atmosphere, where we have raised the average humidity anywhere where we run our engines or factories, and where our pavement and buildings prevent drainage of rainwater into the soil.

If massive amounts of methane are entering the equation, then we have major problems.  You can remedy increased humidity levels with better drainage systems and reflux condensers on smokestacks, but there isn't much you can do about huge amounts of methane being pumped into the atmosphere.  If the concentration is high enough, you could set it on fire.  But I doubt it is.  

Tabberto's picture

Turd

Apologies for the unhelpful ding dong comment!  This is a very interesting Silver Junior in a world of small and barely economic ones.  Still early but they have 2 or 3 separate horizontal sheets between 30 and 80m below surface running between around 5oogpt and up to 2kilos with even higher grade components and a feeder zone running 400gpt has been snagged if not fully defined.  Near Olympic Dam in elephant country...

GuerrillaCapitalist's picture

Re: It's darkest before dawn...

I get your frustration and can certainly empathize. I've been steadily buying silver through the ups and downs recognizing the symptoms of a dying system.

As long as you can handle the credit card payments I would continue to hold and add to the stack.

As to your friends and neighbors that chugged the koolaid and have shiny cars and houses I'm afraid  they're not in a sustainable position. They and millions like them will be forced to confront the realities of  short term gratification at the expense of long term, multi-generational security.

We live in very strange times. Reality is so easily manipulated through the media and government shills and most folks seem to like being lied to. However it doesn't work for long and we're at the edge. It will soon be readily apparent who was right. It's just so fucking tragic that untold numbers of our neighbors will suffer in ways we always thought happened to other people in another time.

Now it's time for a big glass of whiskey.

Xty's picture

Dr G

Um, even I think he should have paid up, and left a handsome tip.

(there is a very bad joke involving that punch line)

Patrancus's picture

Occupy

We have a serious problem God I hope it does not boil over, maybe better to have a bug out plan that you do not need to implement, than it would be, to need one when one is not available. 

dmanson's picture

@ Dr G,

Thanks for the reply.  However, I don't believe that it's straight up.  I think it's up and then down and then up less and down with a flat base, but I'm just guessing.  The closest thing I can find is here:  http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest/astro922.html

Turd?  Anyone else know if this is a Rhino Horn chart pattern?  

Marc Grail's picture

Cell Phone Anti-Tracking & Eavesdropping Sleeve

I was thinking this would be a cool thing to create and started to see if anyone had beat me to it. Sure enough here it is:http://rfidcountermeasures.com/pages/cellcase

Found them much cheaper on Ebay: http://www.ebay.com/itm/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=170763188781 

Just got 4 of them to share with friends. (If I could figure out how to post a pic I would. Could someone send me a private message telling me how?)

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