Too Surreal To Comprehend

There are days when I sit back in wonderment at the position in which "Jimmy Stewart" finds himself. To go from regular dope to regular-dope-with-amazing-contacts is sometimes difficult to deal with in that it's so surreal. Anyway, there's just a lot of interesting stuff going on in the world, 99% of which is never discussed in the media, financial or otherwise.

So, I try to make sense of it all and then pass it along to you. The hard part is deciphering what is worthwhile and what is not. And I'm not just talking about the PM-positive, "pumper" information out there. I get a lot of anti-PM, you're-all-batshit-crazy stuff, too, which, frankly, sometimes has merit. As an example, I give you this:

Over the past year or so, I've gotten to know Jim Willie a little bit. I've never actually met him and we probably wouldn't even recognize each other if we passed on the street. That fact, however, doesn't mean that I can't make a conclusion regarding his validity as a PM opinion maker and editorialist. Therefore, though he's got few ideas that I don't necessarily agree with, I think he's one of the good guys who is doing his level best to inform and warn as many folks as possible about what lies ahead.

In his update of 4/12/12, Jim included some rather juicy information regarding the link between current paper price swings and behind-the-scenes physical delivery. Now, you can write this off as the lunatic ramblings of a madman if you'd like (someone in the previous thread called him "the National Enquirer of newsletters"), but I personally think that this information is valid. Jim has an extensive list of contacts within the global financial system and, from time to time, these folks pass this type of quality information to him. Should you choose to dismiss it and slander him instead, ask yourself first "what kind of contacts do I have?". If you, as a detractor, have no contacts within the international gold trader community, maybe you should be willing to openly consider that the information Jim provides is accurate, knowledgeable and helpful, not simply tabloid-level heresay.

Here are the first, two paragraphs of the piece, followed by a link to the rest:

"What an incredibly complex confusing and treacherous month. It can be safely said that 80% of the activity is almost totally kept from the public. The financial system is breaking in an accelerated fashion. Compare to some grisly horror movie where a man is strapped in a chair. The more he moves, the tighter the bindings pull on his gasping throat and pressed nether stones. The most significant two factors at work are the Iran sanctions and their powerful backfire, and the futile efforts in Europe to stem the banking center collapse. The anti-USDollar federation that spans widely across the globe is gathering strong momentum. Financial aggression is being met by financial alternative development. As Greece moved off the daily news fabrication factory, the reality of a collapse in Spain and Italy has moved to the front center of observations. Meanwhile, the American nitwits continue to argue over Quantitative Easing when it never stopped, and in fact, went global under their noses. The US news machine, dominated by the syndicate, churns out absurdities after more nonsensical bites on an economic recovery. The subprime loan machinery has ramped up. The retail factor does not tell of strength, but of weakness. Spending on consumption does not indicate strength, but a path to ruin still not well recognized. The gap between reality and reports is diverging.

Back at the gold desk, another cartel member kill is in progress. A string of UBS-type gold arena deaths is the biggest untold story of the new decade. The UBS rogue trader story was a total fabrication, written and staged to conceal the removal of all UBS gold from their reserves inventory. They are a dead gold player. The gold community, even LeMetropole Cafe and GATA, appears to be missing the coalition kills taken place in sequence with each paper gold ambush. If the cartel wishes to drive down the paper gold price, then they must deal with the consequences of having one more cartel member bank offered on the physical altar in a death sacrifice. They are vulnerable from sovereign bond positions and weak currency positions. In the margin call vise, they must forfeit their gold, but in a long slow process as truly enormous physical gold orders are being filled over a pyramid of prices lower than the cartel bank wishes. Details are scanty, but the trail can be followed to some extent by false stories to cover the damaging tracks. The press did a wretched job in checking the facts on the UBS rogue story. The loss was over $6 billion. The trades were all approved at VP level. The trap was laid and UBS entered with both feet, the consequence for which was being expelled from the gold arena, probably forever, in a total loss of its gold bullion. No wonder the press did not report the actual story. It would have been a monster bull story for gold. If Barclays or Royal Bank of Scotland or Bank of America were having their golden blood removed on a table, with straps in place for directors of their gold desks, and hot pokers applied by coalition forces to extract their gold, the outcome dictated by incredibly insolvency and margin call vulnerability, the effect on the gold market would be magnificent. Such events are in progress in my opinion, based on some juicy information feeds. Rather than divulge the entire details of the cartel kill, the coalition prefers to move to the next victim in the Wall Street & London cesspool of finance."

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/willie041212.html

As you know, another guy with whom I'm now able to communicate directly is Uncle Ted. The statement below isn't anything earth-shattering but I've been meaning to re-print it. It's taken from his mid-week update last week and it simply speaks volumes about where we are currently in the silver charade.

"I realize that we are currently in a period of doldrums in the price and this has blunted investment demand, the silver price driver with the most kick. Prices are down sharply from the peaks of a year ago and there is a self-fulfilling nature in all investment assets where lower prices discourage new investment. More than ever, the short-term control of High Frequency Trading (HFT) is exerting greater daily pressure to the price as real volume dwindles. I’ve noticed a clear pattern where most days we start out under price pressure. This makes it easier to for the COMEX commercials to contain the price. No one can guarantee that the COMEX commercials can’t rig another sharp sell-off. It’s enough to sap the resolve of even the most ardent bull.
 
But I would remind you that these conditions have been a regular feature of the silver market over the past ten year (excepting the presence of HFT). While we have climbed sharply over the past ten years, that extraordinary price rise witnessed its share of sharp takedowns and prolonged periods of price stagnation. For example, the price high at $8 in 2004 wasn’t exceeded for almost two years, as was the price high of $15 in 2006 which wasn’t exceeded for almost as long. It took more than two years for silver to exceed the price highs of March 2008 of $21 (when JPMorgan took over Bear Stearns). Yet anyone who bought at the former highs and held on was rewarded, as will those who bought at last year’s highs. (Going back even further, the decade or more that silver traded between $4 and $5 was the biggest price doldrums of all; along with being a great time to accumulate). My point is that during the last three silver price doldrums, the gloom and negative talk was almost thick enough to cut with a knife, almost the same as now. Yet history shows us that the very best time to buy was during past price doldrums as was it also the very worst time to sell."
 

I reached out to our pal "Winston" over the weekend to get some thoughts from him, too. He sent me a lengthy email which I will try to summarize. He is quite confident that there are some very large, sovereign buyers underpinning the physical market in London. (Note that this jibes with Jim Willie's assertations.) These buyers halted the paper selling on a couple of occasions last week and they continued to do so all the way into this morning. Did anyone notice that gold rallied at 3:00 am EDT today instead of selling off? This was due to the same sovereigns buying into, and post, the AM London fix. Winston expects this to continue to provide a floor for paper price. The key level to watch going forward is 1680-1685 as, apparently, there are all kinds of buy-stops at that level. Any move through there will trigger a quick rally toward 1700+. Above 1700 and the WOPRs will flip to "BUY" again and we'll head back off to another test of the critical 1800 level.

Interestingly, Winston's analysis fits in quite well with my charts, too. (Makes me feel a little less dopey.) As you can see on the charts below, gold is still struggling to make a permanent turning point. It's close, however. There should continue to be strong paper price support between 1630-40 and this makes another attempt at 1680 a simple eventuality. Once 1680 is finally bested, 1705 should be the final hurdle before another run at 1800.

paper_4-16amgold18.jpgpaper_4-16amgoldh.jpg

paper_4-16amgoldd.jpgpaper_4-16amgoldw.jpg

Silver, as you might imagine, has a similar picture. In the short term, it is still penned in a range between $31 and $33. However, very strong buying support continues to emerge between $31.00 and $31.25. The longer this support holds, the lower the trendlines "hurdles" get for the next rally. For now, all we can do is wait for a breakout through $33 before we can get really excited. Also, pay very close attention to the weekly chart below. We are nearing a resolution to the current pattern but it may still be 6-8 weeks away. Please try to remain patient. The next move in silver is going to catch a lot of people by surprise but not us.

paper_4-16amsilv18.jpgpaper_4-16amsilvh.jpg

paper_4-16amgoldd_0.jpgpaper_4-16amsilvw.jpg

Ok, I'm going to stop at this point because I've been in my office for about three hours now. I need a break and you need a new thread. More later today. TF

284 Comments

OC15's picture

Lindsey Williams

I've come to believe the man is given just enough good info, made enough good calls (eg. 2008 oil prices, 2011 middle east revolt) to keep the hook baited.  He missed on the 2008 Presidential call and then said "oh you didn't understand me right; I didn't say McCain would win, I said he was their man".  He also talked about the rapid succession of middle east countries being handed to the muslim brotherhood as well as oil going to $175-200.  Then when it stalled he claimed Gaddafi set the elite back about 3 months.  It's been 6 months now since they killed Gaddafi and here we sit.  He also trumpeted for a long time that Mr. Fromm told him to watch when the Euro collapses you have weeks to get out of the $ and that another stock market crash was imminent.  He's recently recanted on that and said not to watch the currencies or the stock market anymore.  

Wonder what the excuse will be when the $ is not Zimbabwe money by the end of the year?  Probably some drivel about the elite changing their timeline.  Clearly he has some high up connections to make some of the calls he's made but I'm quite certain the man is being played like a card.  I think we will have more problems this year with earth changes than with the economy.  I highly doubt they will let anything catastrophic happen before the elections.

Harald's picture

Lots of gun aficionados on

Lots of gun aficionados on board here.  Thanks everyone.  Always learn something new at TFmetals. 

¤'s picture

Pining

Wicked! yesyes

Looks like 100+ H/T post to me.

SilverWealth's picture

turd

Uh-oh. "Gold almost certain to rally soon." ?

Really?  Cartel adores reading these kinds of pronouncements. They are manning all stations no doubt. A good sell signal imo.

Xty's picture

Fulgurite

If I understand your question, the answer is that when the price hits a certain low point, someone is waiting to buy it.  Underpinning the market means that they want to buy.  The market is manipulated, but gold does have a value - and currently that is the price someone is willing to pay so no more can be sold.  This seems too basic ... sorry if I have missed something.

hjh134's picture

Jim Willie

Met Jim Willie in Chicago (Holiday Inn Rolling Meadows) in about 2003 or 4 at a Gold Show. He was still living in the states. Talked with him for about 20 minutes. He is not an off the wall nut job. He seemed like a regular guy who had been laid off and was starting a new career writing. It was also the same place where I met David Morgan, James Turk and Bill Murphy. I started buying 100oz silver bars at $4.80. My first Gold Eagle I bought at $300.00. I have every once of gold and silver I ever bought. I've read all his news letters, all of Murphys cafe and every post by Mr. Sinclair. You can make money trading. No one gets rich overnight. You don't need to. Patience is the key. Trade way smaller than you need to.Trade like it is cash. Trade 1 mini for every 50k you put in a account. If you buy an angel just sell and take a profit before the next one.  Buy the dips lightly, stay small and be happy taking a small profit.My best year in 2010 I ended up paying the IRS 83,000. Last year I lost money, 40K on an oil spread hurt, MF Global still owes me 37k. I get a return this year. Relax, be happy, take their money a little at a time. Buy physical on the dips. Don't try and get rich. I worked in the building trades for 35 years. Steady will get you there. Don't hope for a big run up. Just keep taking their money a little at a time. I've been doing this since gold was at 280 and silver under $5. Relax, be happy - do not over leverage- we will win.

RaRaRasputin's picture

Damn Pining ....

I can only hat tip you once but this one is worth way more yes

Superb

exiledbear's picture

They can set the paper price

But they can't control the physical inventory. And they can't stop printing money. They wouldn't need to manipulate anything if they stopped printing money. If you really want to do gold in, make an M2 or M3 chart with a nice long plateau in it.

I dunno. You look at the gold bull in the 1970s and most of the nuttiness happened in 1979 and 1980. And then there was the really boring year of 1975. Most of the other years were good for gold, but there was nothing that looked like drama to me.

But it amuses me to no end to see that physical inventory is flowing away from them. You do know that even with all the paper illusions, they need some minimum amount of real gold with which to spin the paper illusions on top of. They lose enough physical, they lose their ability to manipulate.

Just like they hike margins up enough, they strengthen the remaining players to the point where they can't defeat them anymore.

Xty's picture

Pining - we even get pajamas?!?!

Wow - and here I have been wearing just the hat.  And it is cold up here.

I would give you a thousand hat tips if I had magic power.  After taking care of a few other outstanding problems.

Pellet's picture

London Trader agrees with Jim Willie

I am expecting the mother of all rallies once it finally starts.

If you read the London Trader blogs on King World News, he (or she?) agrees with what Jim Willie states above about sovereign buying and the cartel's driving prices lower just creates that much more buying.  So that puts three traders (Willie, "Winston" and London Trader) on the same page  unless "Winston" and London Trader are the same person  smiley

Jeanne d'Arc's picture

@Xty - Pajamas are one of

@Xty - Pajamas (and cheese) are one of life's essentials, as we make clear here... ;-)

Big Buffalo's picture

We have 5-6 months at this level...

By many estimates...debt ceiling will be hit and raised, again, sometime on September. This also, just happens to be around election time. And during the debates and campaigning, the current president is going to want to keep oil and gas prices down. So, all Ben has to do is just keep the juggling act up just for a little longer.

then...

that's when we see metals rise (not to the moon) but a strong rise.

Patrancus's picture

Not surreal at all...

Not surreal at all, it's all real, if you have the ability to get your head out of the TPTB's Bernays propaganda machine it all becomes crystal clear. 

SilverFocker's picture

@Big Buffalo & others

When checking out Buds, also look further..........THEY SELL silver coins.

Dr G's picture

The Cartel, reverse H&S,

The Cartel, reverse H&S, international buyers of size, closing wedge patterns, a mysterious "London trader"... none of it matters much to me.

The charts will do what they do, the buyers and sellers will do what they do. Some sovereign nations will buy metals and other sovereign nations will go belly-up. I bought at $8/oz and $900/oz and I bought at $49/oz and $1650/oz. I bought on Saturday and I bought on Sunday. I just bought this morning.

Turd, thanks for your words of wisdom. A lot of static out there. Stack it up.

BagOfGold's picture

I loves my "Pin Man"!!!...

Pining...you are my favourite...& of course...you are the best!!!...

Bag Of Gold

Peaches Marie's picture

I think I would know you, Turd

... if I passed you on the street.  You look like Burt Reynolds, right?  OK, Burt 40 years ago...

pforth's picture

Crazy MFG tax question...

This doesn't apply to me since I didn't have an MFG account but I wonder... if you made 30% cap gains in trading last year but then 30% of your money disappeared when MFG went down...so your overall account is net zero gains... do you still have to pay US income tax on your cap gains that were stolen?

Bobbejaan's picture

@Xty ....

Quote:
it really is amazing that with all the evidence of a robust increase in gold exports and imports that the price remains steady. Almost makes you think it isn't a free market. I wonder if the people in Spain are really selling their gold, or have figured out a way to move it out of the country. And to Switzerland no less. If I had the misfortune to be living in Spain, I would sure be trying to move out any assets that weren't tied down.

I agree with you, and I strongly suspect that the people in Spain aren't doing much gold selling, but rather buying & moving. ... We have a few Spanish-Peasant friends that are doing EXACTLY the latter (as per your comment).

.

Quote:
And I really am sorry we argued previously.

[Cowardly-Lion-Voice Mode = ON] ... Say it ain't so!! ... [/Cowardly-Lion-Voice Mode = OFF]

... I must be going more senile than usual, as I DON'T remember EVER having an argument with you .... Could you kindly refresh my failing memory (by PM if you prefer) as I don't like to think I've upset someone I like & I'm not generally an "argumentative type", so I AM quite curious as to what subject we MAY have argued about.

.

I promise not to argue with you anymore ... unless you pay for another Five Minutes cheeky devil :-

OrangeAlert's picture

@99th Monkey

Thanks for that chart.  I've been thinking that same thing since we hit 1900+ and started heading south just like in 2008.  That S&P downgrade changed the game and started this huge reverse H&S.  If in one year we look back, we'll see a new base trend line starting now and I'm with you and Ivars, the next 3-3.5 years will be nice.  

California Lawyer's picture

THANKS!!! Big Buffalo, et al.

Fantastic recommendation.  I just picked one up from Budsgunshop.  I ordered the ammo, two metal tins of the cheap stuff.  

I can't wait to get the gun, clean off the gunk, and go shooting.

IF it works okay, I plan to get one per month for the rest of the year.  This will be my new wedding/graduation, etc. gift I give, instead of silver eagles . . .

Thanks a ton for the great info!!

I LOVE this place . . .

Hawk's picture

Hawk

Ok I'll post my two cents as i'm in the mood to do so. 

Turd made one very good Point and that is patience, until such time as the market shows us what its going to do we are in no mans land in both gold and silver.

All due respect to Winston: he was spot on with the Put targeting last month for options expiration and is generally an insightful analyst/trader, indeed I think he was the only person calling for that type of move with that particular justification for it. Ok maybe I respect him more than some of you commenting on previous posts but then its not hard for me to do so, as I can work out who Winston is and the London trader for that matter as well, sorry but I wont divulge that information as they both have obviously decided to keep it hidden for a reason, Turd as well. 

As to the sovereign buying im sure its there and in size, but this doesn't always matter in the short run, if enough traders go short even these physical support levels will be over run, albeit temporarily. We just had a negative gold day and a positive silver one pit to pit close, coupled with COT cut off  you can expect a rally tomorrow. 

These consolidations are boring me, I guess I just like $50-100 days, up and down.

HAWK

Xeno's picture

MFGing Tax

I didn't have an MFG acct. either but have always suspected that the reason for the misfiling of the bankruptcy was not only to screw over the FCM customers, but also to delay until tax time when those that got screwed would take the loss.

So under the scenario posed by the ques. above I suspect that the loss would offest the gain (but I'm not a tax guy) and I further suspect a surprise resolution to the whole sorrid affair not long after tax day.

lodmund's picture

winston and willie

As one of the recent detractors of both winston and mr willie I really appreciate your detailed follow up. And while we are at it , Turd, I would like to thank you  for running free of charge the best website in the PM arena.

Personally I couldn't care less if a pundit has good contacts or none, equally i am not interested whether they use TA, fundamentals, astrology, tea leaves or even really weird stuff like elliot wave.

What i care about, and track meticulously is whether they have a record of being generally correct ( no one is 100%). If they have a good track record I trade based on their predictions, if they don't i don't. Where they are particularly awful i use them as a contrary indicator.

It is a simple system that since 2005 has proved extremely effective and profitable 

Xty's picture

Bobbejaan and something is up, or down

the funny thing is, I don't remember either.  I am just careful when I type your name - and I am NOT going back to figure it out.  That is probably why I brought it up - it was silly, undoubtedly.

The USDX is not looking so good, btw.  Maybe something of interest is occurring.

AngryBeaver's picture

Mosin-Nagant/AK/AR comparison

http://www.mouseguns.com/compare.htm

A bit of fun...these rifles are accurate and satisfying for the patient hunter  who enjoys reaching out and touching objects @ long distances.

JY896's picture

Turdland Jobs Forum (for Mutual Benefit & Assistance)

I know this is not, strictly speaking, the focus of this site, but I figured it could fit into the broader mandate of collaboration and mutual assistance. It would be nice to be able to live off the dividends of our skyrocketing mining investments :-) or using obscene trading profits, but I personally am not there yet, and must continue to earn a salary.

While the economy as a whole continues to go through the throes of systemic, structural difficulties, there are sectors that are still or once again viable. I consider the community here in Turdland to be significantly ahead of the curve, and am sure we have a lot of talent to offer. Conversely, I am hoping others will step up and share their position ideas/staffing needs. My company has a dozen positions open that I am personally aware of in my division (and thousands more in general elsewhere). I know that anyone can search online and find pretty much anything (including my recommendations below), but it is exactly the overload of results that often makes it difficult to find/select/apply for the ONE right position that will be right for any given person. And given a choice, I would rather work with/for/alongside Turdites.

So, without further ado:

Turdland Jobs Forum (for Mutual Benefit & Assistance)*

Good luck, happy hunting. If appropriate, please share job openings you are aware of so qualified Turdites may be among the applicants.

* - the subtheme was appropriated from a comment on the previous thread from Bobbejaan, who had a novel idea for handling the various hordes of DBs plaguing peoples the world over

Big Buffalo's picture

California Lawyer - Mosin

Congrats to the Mosin purchase!

Couple things: don't come back yelling at me b/c your shoulder is sore from firing so many rounds, or b/c you keep spending money on ammo wink. Also, get two for yourself. The gun gets a little warm when you keep firing. Switching guns during shooting is nice. Why have one when you can have two?

Fritz's picture

Chinese Cyanide Poisoning

What an elaborate story complete with integral details . . . and so soon in an investigation. Caught my eyes too.

recaptureamerica's picture

Physical vs. Paper: The Real

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