Turd Traveling - Open Thread

I am traveling today after spending the Easter weekend away with MrsF and the LTs. 

I hope that by later today I will be able to post a review of the day's events as well as some updated charts. For now, this is simply an open thread. The only discussion item I have is this new post from Gonzalo Lira. Where Gonzalo excels is in forward thinking. In this piece, he alerts readers that Spain will be the next "eurozone crisis" and gets you wondering about just how this will all play out.

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.fr/2012/04/spain-will-exit-eurozone-firstthis-year.html

And I just found this interview of Uncle Ted. Please take the time to read it today.

http://moneymorning.com/2012/04/06/the-who-how-and-why-behind-silver-price-manipulation/

That's all for now as we are packing things up and I can hear MrsF hollaring for me from the next room. I'd better get moving...if I know what's good for me.

More later. Have a great day. TF

140 Comments

beardeus's picture

They call it the American

They call it the American Dream because you have to be asleep to believe it - George Carlin

Go back to bed America! You are free to do what we tell you! You are free to do what we tell you! - Bill Hicks

balz's picture

To opticsguy

Ok, but what about how much you could buy with that 2$? I mean : it is one thing to say that the average day wage was half an ounce, but what is really important is what you could buy with that half an ounce.

I am curious about this.

dropout's picture

The Club

"It's a big club. And you ain't in it! You and I are not in the big club. It's the same big club they use to beat you over the head with all day long - telling you what to think, eat, drink, buy."

-George Carlin.

opticsguy's picture

1900

looks like you could feed a family on $1 a day back then.  The 1/10th oz Ag number might be a little low, but half and oz/day seems about right.  If 8 hours at $8/hour buys you 2 oz of silver, either the minimum wage is triple what it should be or silver is at least 3x underpriced in today's dollars.

tandard Grocery List For The Year 1900  
         
         
Items Unit Price Total Price   Average Weekly Salary
1 pound apples 

$0.10 

$0.10 

   
2 pounds roast 

$0.18 

$0.36 

   
3 pounds steak 

$0.16 

$0.48 

   
1 pound bread 

$0.05 

$0.05 

   
1 pound butter 

$0.27 

$0.27 

   
3 pounds chicken 

$0.13 

$0.39 

   
1 pound coffee 

$0.16 

$0.16 

   
1 dozen eggs 

$0.23 

$0.23 

   
2 half gallon milk 

$0.10 

$0.20 

   
bushel of potatoes 

$0.61 

$0.61 

   
1 pound rice 

$0.07 

$0.07 

   
1 pound sugar 

$0.06 

$0.06 

   
balz's picture

To opticsguy

Thanks, this is very interesting.

Where did you find those stats ?

And what about renting a house or buying farm land back then ?

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Great job Doc

I totally missed the closing shame expression- that is crystal clear, and it is fascinating that this was her emotion when her 'dog and pony show' interview performance was over.  I guess this answers the question "Have you no shame, Ms. Masters?"  Actually, she does... but it is outweighed by the paycheck. I think there is a word for this... 

I very much doubt Ms. Masters lurks in the comments section at TFMetals, but I strongly suspect a JPM monkey or two is assigned to look over things here, for various reasons (and if you are reading this, first let me say Hello and welcome to TFMR, and second, let me ask if this is really what you envisioned doing when you busted your ass through school and those vile internships?  Just wondering.)

So anyway, if JPM has people monitoring this place, what do you think the chances are that Blythe's handlers will pass along to her these comments and the wonderful screen shots revealing her inadvertent internal shame, so she can be better prepared to deliver her lies more smoothly next time?  That would be a strange thing, indeed.  

tpbeta's picture

@Dr Jerome

I know something about this professionally, and it was obvious that Blythe had been coached by a media expert for that interview.

Point 1: 'Great question' which she said twice, is not a natural thing to say by any stretch of the imagination. It is, however, a standard response in media training manuals. For example...

http://ezinearticles.com?Interviews---Five-Tips-To-Handle-Tough-Questions-From-Reporters&id=67366

In other words, she was reading from a prepared script in her head. There was nothing off the cuff about this.

Point 2: She didn't have to do the interview. The purpose was therefore to get some piece of information out there. Obviously that information was that if JPM is manipulating the silver market, it is doing so on behalf of a client.

The question is why. I've yet to hear a convincing answer except that, assuming this client does exist, there was an implicit threat of being revealed there aimed at that client. I'm guessing it's a government.

Big L's picture

Head shake

And a quick head shake "no" when she says that more regulation is needed.

BagOfGold's picture

Now...who's afraid of Blythe Masters?...

blythe.JPG
 
Baba+Yaga+%2528Blythe%2529.jpg
Don't worry...Blythe is only feeding...
 
 
Bag Of Gold
 
 
 
 
BUDDHA PRINCESS's picture

S&P 500 Confirms Near-Term Top But Dollar Takes Step Backward

S&P 500 – Prices took out support at 1392.10, the neckline of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) top chart formation. Sellers face initial support at 1377.10, with 1392.10 recast as near-term resistance. The H&S setup implies a measured downside target at 1359.30.

SP_500_Confirms_Near-Term_Top_But_Dollar_Takes_Step_Backward_body_Picture_5.png, S&P 500 Confirms Near-Term Top But Dollar Takes Step Backward

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL – Prices are reversing lower from resistance in the 102.97-103.21 marked by January top as well as the 50% Fibonacci retracement to once again challenge the 61.8% level at 101.19. A break below this boundary exposes the rising trend line support set from mid-December, now at 99.97.

SP_500_Confirms_Near-Term_Top_But_Dollar_Takes_Step_Backward_body_Picture_6.png, S&P 500 Confirms Near-Term Top But Dollar Takes Step Backward

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD – Prices broke back above the 38.2%Fibonacci expansion level at 1634.76 to retest support-turned-resistance at 1644.45. A break above this boundary exposes the 23.6% Fib at 1658.57. The 38.2% expansion has been recast as near-term support, with a break back below it clearing the way for another test of the 50% level at 1615.46.

SP_500_Confirms_Near-Term_Top_But_Dollar_Takes_Step_Backward_body_Picture_7.png, S&P 500 Confirms Near-Term Top But Dollar Takes Step Backward

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR – Prices pulled back to retest resistance-turned-support at 9996, the 50% Fibonacci expansion level. A break below this boundary exposes the 38.2% Fib at 9919. Near-term resistance remains in the 10072-10081 area, marked by the 61.8% expansion and the October 4 closing high.

SP_500_Confirms_Near-Term_Top_But_Dollar_Takes_Step_Backward_body_Picture_8.png, S&P 500 Confirms Near-Term Top But Dollar Takes Step Backward

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

BUDDHA PRINCESS's picture

US Dollar Gains on Haven Demand in Asia, Bernanke in Focus Ahead

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen rose against their major counterparts to start the trading week as stocks declined, boosting demand for the go-to safe haven currencies. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark index slid 0.6 percent as investors reacted to Friday’s disappointing US employment report that showed the world’s top economy added just 120,000 jobs in March, falling short of the 205,000 increase expected.

A larger-than-forecast increase in Chinese CPI also contributed to the sour mood. The annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.6 percent, topping forecasts for a print at 3.4 percent and hinting Beijing will not be quick to offer additional stimulus as the economy’s crucial export sector faces headwinds from a burgeoning recession in the Eurozone.

Looking ahead, top European markets are closed for the Easter Monday holiday but early indications point to continued risk aversion as Wall Street comes online. S&P 500 stock index futures are down nearly a full percentage point, suggesting selling pressure will carry forward as North American traders get their first real chance to react to Friday’s jobs numbers (only futures markets were open in the immediate aftermath of the announcement, and only very briefly).

While the risk-off mood proved supportive for the greenback in Asian trade, it is unclear how the Dollar will fare going forward if the outcome meaningfully rekindles QE3 expectations. Near-term correlation studies suggest the benchmark currency has become increasingly correlated with 2-year Treasury yields recently, a development that makes sense in the context of upgraded Fed rhetoric on the prospects for recovery that emerged in officials’ public commentary and with the March FOMC policy meeting. This means that if yields decline as traders mull the possibility of new efforts monetary stimulus efforts, the Dollar may follow suit.

With relatively little on the US economic calendar, markets are likely to look scheduled comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to get their bearings. The central bank chief will be speaking at the 2012 Financial Markets Conference in Georgia, and while the topic of conversation is expected to a lecture on "Fostering Financial Stability", some mention of Friday’s jobs report may certainly make an appearance. With that in mind, traders will be keen to dissect Bernanke’s commentary for any clues as to whether the announcement has made QE3 any more of a possibility.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (¥) (FEB)

1177.8B

1120.0B

-437.3B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (FEB)

854.1B

650.0B

135.2B (R+)

23:50

JPY

Current Account Balance (YoY) (FEB)

-30.7%

-34.1%

-180.0%

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (FEB)

102.1B

104.3B

-1381.6B

1:30

CNY

Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

-0.3%

-0.3%

0.0%

1:30

CNY

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

3.6%

3.4%

3.2%

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (MAR)

-1.9%

-

5.2%

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (MAR)

54.8

46.5

45.9

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (MAR)

49.7

-

50.1

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

No Data

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3028

1.3126

GBPUSD

1.5832

1.5931

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

Louie's picture

Istanbul not Constantinople

Iran agrees to last chance nuclear meetings in Istanbul

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/09/world/middleeast/iran-agrees-to-nuclear-talks-in-turkey-reports-say.html

AND

Syria fires across Turkish boarder refugee camp

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17656657

Me thinks our NATO ally is facing some hard decisions soon.   

BUDDHA PRINCESS's picture

Crude Oil Sold on US Jobs Disappointment, Gold Watching for QE3

Commodity prices reflect the aftermath of to Friday’s disappointing US employment report that showed the world’s top economy added just 120,000 jobs in March, falling short of the 205,000 increase expected. Growth-sensitive crude oil and copper prices are on the defensive while gold and silver are trading higher amid hopes that a stumble in the recovery will retool the case for QE3, stoking demand an alternative to paper currency.

S&P 500 stock index futures are down over 1 percent ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, pointing to continued risk aversion that is likely to keep oil and copper under pressure. The path forward for precious metals is more nuanced however, relying heavily on the durability of stimulus speculation and its impact on the US Dollar. The greenback was broadly supported overnight as risk aversion selloff stoked safety demand but it is unclear whether this can continue as Wall Street comes online if Fed easing expectations take firm hold.

With this in mind, the spotlight turns to scheduled comments from Fed Chairman Ben BernankeThe central bank chief will present a lecture on "Fostering Financial Stability" at the 2012 Financial Markets Conference in Georgia, but some mention of Friday’s jobs report may certainly make an appearance. Traders will therefore be keen to dissect Bernanke’s commentary for any clues as to whether the announcement has made QE3 any more of a possibility. A dovish lean is likely to weigh on the Dollar and boost gold as well as silver, while a restatement of the (increasingly upbeat) status quo is likely to have the opposite effect.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $103.31 // +1.84 // +1.81%

Prices are reversing lower from resistance in the 102.97-103.21 marked by January top as well as the 50% Fibonacci retracement to once again challenge the 61.8% level at 101.19. A break below this boundary exposes the rising trend line support set from mid-December, now at 99.97.

Crude_Oil_Sold_on_US_Jobs_Disappointment_Gold_Watching_for_QE3_Clues_body_Picture_3.png, Crude Oil Sold on US Jobs Disappointment, Gold Watching for QE3 Clues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1636.43 // +5.20 // +0.32%

Prices broke back above the 38.2%Fibonacci expansion level at 1634.76 to retest support-turned-resistance at 1644.45. A break above this boundary exposes the 23.6% Fib at 1658.57. The 38.2% expansion has been recast as near-term support, with a break back below it clearing the way for another test of the 50% level at 1615.46.

Crude_Oil_Sold_on_US_Jobs_Disappointment_Gold_Watching_for_QE3_Clues_body_Picture_4.png, Crude Oil Sold on US Jobs Disappointment, Gold Watching for QE3 Clues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $31.87 // +0.17 // +0.54%

Prices continue to consolidate below resistance at 32.93, the former neckline of a Head and Shoulders (H&S)top carved out between late January and mid-March, and horizontal support at 31.04. A break blower exposes the first downside barrier at 29.79. The H&S setup broadly implies a measured downside target at 26.84.

Crude_Oil_Sold_on_US_Jobs_Disappointment_Gold_Watching_for_QE3_Clues_body_Picture_5.png, Crude Oil Sold on US Jobs Disappointment, Gold Watching for QE3 Clues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.796 // +0.006 // +0.16%

Prices are testing through support at the bottom of a Triangle chart pattern carved out since early February, with a break lower initial exposing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 3.696. A break below this boundary exposes rising trend line support at 3.590. Initial resistance lines up at 3.808.

Crude_Oil_Sold_on_US_Jobs_Disappointment_Gold_Watching_for_QE3_Clues_body_Picture_6.png, Crude Oil Sold on US Jobs Disappointment, Gold Watching for QE3 Clues

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

I Run Bartertown's picture

Aged silver better?

I Run Bartertown's picture

Irk's Postulate

Irk (don't ask) believes that unless you have 1,000 oz of silver, then you can't afford gold.

Now, he makes a pretty convincing case, but I'm not typically given to taking his advice.

Thoughts?

paulindoon's picture

From

From http://silvergoldbull.com/

 1oz New Johnson Matthey Silver Bar

Now @ US$33.87 so a bit better than Provident

California Lawyer's picture

Thought Exercise

I hope all had a wonderful Easter.  Now, back to work.

I have been thinking about this for some time.  I have no good answer yet.

Here is the set up:

Assume you are the parents of a young child, say around 10 years old.  That child is starting to formulate ideas of his/her future.  The child comes to you, and asks: "Dad/Mom, what do you want me to do when I graduate from high school?  Is college the best thing?  What about on-line or community college?  What if money was no object, what would be the BEST college to go to, and what is the BEST profession to try to go into to?  How will I pay for it?  What if I can't afford college? Is it okay to borrow to pay for it?  How about learning a trade or apprenticing?   Would I be better off going to another country than the USA for college or apprenticing?

So what DO you tell this young American child?

For once, I am without words to express a cogent opinion on something.

I am at once bent on espousing the "education is the best option" mantra, but that reeks of normalcy bias.  Further, education in what discipline?  Law, medicine, engineering, or another hard science, or something squishy?  How can I justify allowing my kid to be burdened with what is almost certainly a life-long debt sentence?  Is a college education REALLY that desirable?  If not the USA, then where, China or the rising East?

I am really struggling here to carve out a coherent message.  I do not want to burden my kids with what I know yet, but I do not want to coddle them into believing that all is perfect in the world either.

Anyhow, all thoughts on this are most welcomed.

swampgas's picture

The Blythe interview was great

The Blythe interview indicates JPM felt compelled to respond to some sort of increasing pressure about it's apparent criminal behavior in the silver market. This seems to be an attempt to relieve some of that pressure lest it continue to gain momentum. I'm proud to be a part of the group trying to keep the momentum going against this group of sanctioned criminals. Go Turd and turdites! Let's keep the pressure high!

And a great job to all on the facial expression analysis. Very revealing. She needs better handlers.

Dr Jerome's picture

Pining

If she does better in her next interview, I think you and I and the rest of us should be paid an consultation fee. This is the kind of feedback people pay research firms lots of money to provide.

tpbeta-- agreed!. she was coached and had her answers ready. She probably provided an acceptable list of interview questions as well.

I missed the head shake "no" on the regulation. 

Patriot Family's picture

Johnson Matthey Bars

GC has those bars for $33.40.

Slick's picture

Blythe

If she wasn't such an evil wretch she might have been worth a 'toss in the hay'
Imo

stephanie's picture

college

I say, if the kids can find a way to go to college, even with some debt, they should do it. Unemployment is still much worse for those without college degrees. And I personally think the value in college isn't so much the coursework, but the buffer period between high school and adulthood where you can "find yourself" a bit more.

I was pretty awkward in high school - I really learned to socialize while in college.

Plus, work sucks. College is fun. It's the last bit of carefree fun you're going to have in your life before the long, dreary period of adult employment sets in. :-)

I know it's much more expensive now. So part-time work while in school is probably a must.

BTW...Let's assume things do collapse - will there even be a functioning government to collect the debt?

PS Of course, getting degrees in things like engineering and computer science would be better than "humanities," unless the plan is to become a college professor. 

Dr Jerome's picture

Education?

CA lawyer,

You raise a very good question. As my son is half-way through college and my daughter is just beginning, I wonder how a degree will benefit them in a post-keynesian world. Up to now, I have always said that a degree does not guarantee a job, but it does open doors for jobs that otherwise you wouldn't have a chance at landing. But now? Will those kinds of jobs even exist? In fact, what kind of jobs are out there now that have a bright future?

Perhaps a good liberal arts education in the classics, history, grammar, logic, Latin, philosophy, rhetoric would be the best thing going. I think there are some private schools that provide this. The perspective on the world an "ancient" education would provide will be valuable at anytime. This is the tradition in which Thomas Jefferson and our other founders were educated. I don't meant to dis the sciences (well, maybe I do) but unless one is going into engineering or  a science-based field, simply having all college students take 3-4 courses in beginning science may not be the best use of time. And why do we require algebra and not teach students about interest rates in college? And of what value will a scientific education be in teh new economy? eventually we will need our scientists and researchers again, but for the next generation or so, we may just be trying to survive.

I guess for now, I still value the college degree. But learning a trade or craft may prove to be the more valuable skill for a few decades. 

I Run Bartertown's picture

Trivia

"The Barber coinage had been introduced in 1892; dimes, quarter dollars, and half dollars with similar designs by Mint Engraver Charles E. Barber...

On March 3, the new coins were publicly announced, with the Treasury noting, "[d]esigns of these coins must be changed by law every 25 years and the present 25-year period ends with 1916."[17] The press release indicated that the Treasury hoped production of the new coins would begin in about two months, once the designs were finalized. The same day, Woolley wrote to Mint Engraver Barber, telling him that his sketches were rejected, and that models from Weinman and MacNeil would arrive at the Philadelphia Mint no later than May 1.[17] According to numismatic historian Walter Breen, Barber became "sullen and totally uncooperative".[18] Lange notes that "numerous delays were encountered as the artists fine-tuned their models while simultaneously avoiding obstacles thrown in their path by Barber. While his observations regarding many aspects of practical coinage were quite accurate, they clearly could have been presented in a more constructive manner."[19] In his book on Mercury dimes, Lange notes that Barber, by then aged 75, had been "compelled over the past ten years to participate in the systematic undoing of a lifetime's achievements"; he had to participate in the process which resulted in coins designed by others replacing ones designed by him"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walking_Liberty_half_dollar

question's picture

College

Learn a trade working with your hands; fixing things, building things, making something out of nothing. Learn about soil and growing things for food, animal husbandry, milk, cheese.

Unless going for a degree in engineering or chemistry learn to party on your own time instead of college.

After a few years of real world living one might be better able to make good use of college. It costs way too much to have your brain washed at one of these institutes just for something to do.

I Run Bartertown's picture

Trivia - 'Mercury' (Winged Liberty) Dime

"The reverse depicts the fasces of war and justice, contrasted with a large olive branch symbolizing peace.[23] According to Breen, "Weinman's symbolic message in this design ... was clearly an updated 'Don't tread on me'".[18] The lettering is in Roman style, and is made as discreet as possible.[23] "

"Traditionally, fasces carried within the Pomerium—the limits of the sacred inner city of Rome—had their axe blades removed. This signified that under normal political circumstances, the imperium-bearing magistrates did not have the judicial power of life and death; within the city, that power rested with the people through the assemblies. However, during times of emergencies when the Roman Republic declared a dictatorship (dictatura), lictors attending to the dictator kept the axe-blades even inside the Pomerium—a sign that the dictator had the ultimate power in his own hands."

opticsguy's picture

College

The two jobs we can't fill....machinists and mechanical engineers.  I'm even thinking of apprenticing as a machinist for a couple of years.  Cheaper than college. 

A good portion of our local machine shops are closing down because the owners are retiring and their kids can't work the buttons on a calculator.  There are whole shops being liquidated for 10 cents on the dollar.

swampgas's picture

Blythe in bed with Ben

JPM has had more closed door meetings with the FED than any other bank by far. I wonder why?

Check it out.

http://ldereport.com/2012/02/21/wsj-today-fed-writes-sweeping-rules-from-behind-closed-doors/

FUBM

boatman's picture

college

i learned how to learn just about anything i want to.............in college.

i cannot imagine not knowing what i learned there.......heavy math and science.

i would have not been able to do anything i have done in my life....all of which had nothing to do but my major.

and yes, it was alot cheaper..........2 olympic indoor swimming pools and big salaries and retirement after 20 years have ruined that.....public employees--the new privileged class.......

my buddy jeff retired at 45 after 25 years in AC dept. of local school board....now he knows that stuff in n out bigtime....can fix and install ANY AC unit--to 100 ton chillers....set up the computer controls to changing out a compressor big as a cement truck.....

but he gets 60,000$/yr for life now[ at 40 years that would be 2.4 MILLION dollars]..........and they gave him ONE MILLION $ to work those last 5 years.

even he doesn't think its right. 

sholtg's picture

Mining Stocks

Opened up a few points today, but it was obvious that they were going to cap it below last week's high (and so they did)... Anybody willing to speculate what could turn them around (except for the "good will" of TPTB)?

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