Ivar's Charts

Thanks for questions, though I generally do not know the answers-I start from charts and try to figure out what may happen to produce them. As some charts may be more corrects, some less, all of them playing out at the times predicted and values predicted has very little chance, especially for those that so far has been wrong.

1) If QE's continues into infinity, that means hyperinflation, which will just stop any business that sells today and buys inputs tomorrow to produce new goods-there will be negative future cash flows for stock valuation. So DJIA and all stocks should go down at one stage -should not they?

2) If there is a trigger that releases panic, money will move out of almost everything into commodities in a BUBBLE way (over invested) incl. gold, silver ( well I do not know all asset classes attractive in in case of very  high inflation expectations) in proportion to their wealth storage capacity. That would create price swings for those commodities etc. assets on such scale which would depend little on EUR/USD rates but on their perceived relative  wealth storage capacity as paper will not count anymore, however , exchange ratios will exist, of course, but secondary to commodity prices ( ala currency rates relative to Bancor). Until USA default, USD is still a also a wealth storing  commodity, partly, hence EUR/USD moving down, and in general, USD index moving up despite raise in commodity prices in the USD.

3) I am not sure I can figure out by how much trillions the world  stock value has already been elevated all over the world ( in total amount of trillion USD) compared to what it could have been without QE's around the world. I guess its possible to do based on Great recession/Great Depression DJIA comparison, but requires knowledge of too many facts , like all world stock market deviations and values. That would partly tell how much money can be released in case of trigger event to inflate the commodity bubble and get the air out of stocks+ even if QE's continue.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/78031#comment-78031

However, there is an interesting chart of super exponential deviation of stock prices in Great recession from Great depression which I  made in October. Its form may signal a typical form of bubble in stocks already in motion and still forming  (If You prolong it to end of February) , with a peak in stock value and immediate  crash somewhere around the time gold takes of (little prior or soon after or during November 2012). I have no chart for such DJIA scenario- I have made too many of them wrong, I would like to wait a bit to see if things happen along the described lines.

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/78033#comment-78033

4) Somewhere along the road this should push USA in recession ( by pushing USDX up +inflation) , increasing doubts about USD value as wealth storage commodity, and finally leading to the USA default due to its inability to service debt. I have made some date predictions, but they vary from 2013 to 2016 so I have no firm conclusion about this.

5) I doubt everything:) Especially since the charts for silver and gold  I have made are the first ones that has been relatively successful for long enough time. And otherwise, how would You challenge existing notions?

What do You think?

To match the February peak of 1,35:

Better picture when enlarged here:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=1620#p36951

Not soo bad-does it mean EUR will lose value faster than USD? It seems so:

Looking at that chart, silver will takeoff very soon, and take off in a big way too. do you still have that prediction or have you updated the chart, i might have missed something obviously.

No, I have not changed these charts, so  silver takes off from them is still late June-early July.

im bad at how eur/usd works , but in the post above, does it project an appreciation of the dollar in 2012/5 (beginning) ?

that will probably be bad for PMs i assume.

I think that it will be bad for PMs in a sense that it will DELAY the rally for a few months, and reduce the max price somewhat- but that should be included into my charts. I do not expect USD appreciation to make a significant dent in Silver or Gold, perhaps one more dip within the levels of latest dip-as can be seen from here:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/132799#comment-132799

And not so much , but some dips are still on the way of gold as well:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/132799#comment-132799

Silver seems to be going down-final leg- till the end of April/early May. That would be the time to go seriously long. Gold may do the same, may start to decouple a bit on the upside during April, GSR increasing for some time-but not for long.