I'm Late, I'm Late, I'm Late!!

I'm know I'm overdue. I'm really in a stew.

Sorry for the late start today. Turd was up too late last night watching basketball. Because of the time, I'll dispense with the usual commentary and head straight to the charts.

First of all, I'm pretty sure that gold bottomed yesterday. Almost everything points to a bottom and, with that last piece of the puzzle (spot vs front-month backwardation) having fallen into place on Wednesday, all that we need now is some chart confirmation. Well the charts look pretty good to me! At this point, gold just need to move back above 1665 and hold for a while. This will trip some buy-stops and send gold toward chart resistance and the 200-day moving average near 1680. Once back above there, we'll be back in business.

paper_3-23amgold4.jpgpaper_3-23amgold12.jpg

Silver is also forming a bottom. Notice the emphasis on forming. Though yesterday could have been the bottom for silver, I can't rule out a couple more stabs at $31, maybe even a few hours below $31. Nonetheless, with gold trading higher, the pressure on silver will lessen and the bottom will be in there, too.

paper_3-23amsilv4.jpgpaper_3-23amsilvd.jpg

With the HUI at severely beaten down levels, I thought that today might be a good time to re-visit a few of our favorite miners. I don't have the the time to discuss all of them but these three have been Turdite favorites for some time now and all three look to be rather attractively priced right here.

paper_3-23amgoldstock.jpgpaper_3-23amego.jpg

paper_3-23amexk.jpg

Lastly, I mentioned this several times in the comments section yesterday and I'm going to do so again here. This is your homework project for the weekend. Because of the recent backwardation in both gold and silver, it is imperative that you make every effort to understand what backwardation means and what the implications of backwardation are. The best explanation I've found is this FOFOA post from summer 2010. As with most FOFOA articles, it can be a bit overwhelming in detail but I urge you to study it and read it several times if you must.

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/07/red-alert-gold-backwardation.html

OK, that's it. As I close, I see that the metals have charged higher while I've typed. What a pleasant surprise! It sure is nice to give everyone a "bottom call" and then see higher prices right away. I'll be around on the blog this afternoon as I am very interested in both the OI numbers from yesterday and the CoT report. I'll add any observations I have into the comments section of this post. Have a great Friday and a great weekend!  TF

p.s. I might as well just post this before DPH does.

148 Comments

vonburpenstein's picture

wasn't something supposed...

to happen in March?  Can't remember what it was tho...anyone? Williams, Cliff, anyone?

cpnscarlet's picture

@Zoltan - Thanks for those

@Zoltan - Thanks for those words about Grace. Severe lack of respect for elders I see here! Grace is also one of the first rockers who had the guts to state a simple truth some years back when asked if she would be going on tour again. Her reply was along the lines that "old rockers on stage" was pathetic in that they can't sing or move to fit the genre anymore. Agree with her or not, there are sure enough oldsters on tour who have to bring the music down an octave or two because their range is shot (along with their hearing in many cases). So here's a salute to Grace and lets all watch for the next Rolling Stones "Steel Wheel(chair)s Tour".cheeky

stealthbear's picture

logiwaver--silver head and shoulders bottom

I am no technical analysis expert, but have been studying charts and patterns for the past 33 years.  I agree with your assessment that an upwardly sloping neckline is more bullish than a declining or flat one.  What is most important, in my opinion, is the time symmetry between the left shoulder, head and potential right shoulder.  They each appear to be about 3 months apart, respectively.

There was a time (pre-2005, just to take a wild guess), that recognizing these chart patterns greatly improved one's chance of success in trading futures markets.  I believe that markets are being egregiously manipulated nowdays, so caveat emptor!  

cpnscarlet's picture

March Prediction

Clif High said the world would basically "end" in early March. I'm not completely sure, but I think it didn't. At least, war with Iran did not happen yet.  The usual numerologists were out a week ago talking about 3/20-21 (equinox) as some flippin' illuminati holiday and the need for a blood sacrifice or something. More BS.

The only thing of significance I'm aware of is that this is the time of year the COMSAT operators are watching their batteries clocely since we are at the height of "eclipse season" for satellites in GEO orbit. Now, don't you feel educated knowing that???

Larry L's picture

@ Be Prepared

Thanks for the prompts on going to the Local Coin Shop. I wish I could buy more often. It was though fun watching the ladies look at all the coins and picking out what looked good to them. They asked questions of things they knew very little about, but they were learning. Now wait and see as they check the price of silver from time to time and realize they bought at a low and the prices will continue to rise for the next few months. Wish I had a few bucks of my own to buy some extra Silver Dollars. Each Silver Dollar was $25 bucks out the door, that's cheap! 

Keep Stacking!!!!!!!!!!

Pete's picture

Nichols who is quite smart is Very bullish on gold NOW

(from my inbox, his solicitation.  I did a trial subscription years ago.  I don't subscribe/no financial connection.  But I'm taking heed of his last sentence...)

Thursday, March 22, 2012

The Best Buying Opportunity of the Last 10 Years

By David Nichols

Fractal Gold Report

 
Most investors are aware that the "crowd is always wrong" when it comes to financial markets. With the big peak in gold only 15 months away, the crowd of gold traders and investors are about as wrong now as they ever get.
 
gif
 

According to this composite indicator of sentiment in the gold market, there has only been one other time when gold has hit this extreme level of negativity, back at the late December low a few months ago.

That sentiment extreme was the direct precursor to a $240 rally in just one month.

So not only is the situation right for an explosive rally, it’s an even better set-up than at that low, because now a highly bullish "sentiment divergence" has developed. Negative sentiment is hitting the same extremes as the prior low, but with one crucial difference -- prices are $125 higher. In other words, it’s taking less downward price movement to generate the same amount of negative energy. This is super high-octane rocket fuel for the next up leg.

Now is the time to go strong into the gold market. The polarity flip back to the up cycle can hit, quite literally, at any moment from here. The timing cycles, price patterns, and sentiment mix are perfectly aligned for gold to go up a lot of points in a short amount of time.

There will be other opportunities to buy on the way up to the cycle peak around $3,000 in summer 2013, but it’s doubtful we’ll see an opportunity this good come along again.

Logiwave's picture

Hey Boswell

Thanks for fixing my chart, but you forgot to change the N to an H at the base of the cleavage!

Boswell's picture

Who notices?

Not in my area of focus :-) "change the N to an H"

ivars's picture

How reliable is XAG in longer term to represent true price?

When I read that silver/gold paper price is determined by futures that can be affected by banks/FED then Its not clear if long term speculation on e.g. XAG or XAU (going long on them with leverage till e.g XAU reaches 60) will give the returns that might be expected...or there will be more volatility. If this is true, one day there could be decoupling of physical price from paper... When? I wonder which price my charts show in the sharp upswing both in silver and especially gold:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/78025#comment-78025

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/83978#comment-83978

On other hand, printing more has to be subjected to limitations of rapid loss of confidence in the USA debt, which will be more catastrophic event than just increases in interest rates. Raising interest rates plus printing will only move the interest in the USA debt lower and risk of partial default faster than pure interest rate increase.

ivars's picture

Safer to go long in silver /gold in EUR if You live in EUR zone

Based on this EUR/USD prediction chart created on October 5th, 2011 which has proven to be on track for the past 6 months:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/78027#comment-78027

as it depicts EUR going down vs. USD by about 15% till the end of 2012, if someone lives in EURo zone or has currency pegged to EUR ( I do) it is much safer go long in whatever instrument is proper in silver and gold in EUR than USD.

SilverCityRocker's picture

EXCELLENT ANALYSIS TURD - AVOID TROLLS

Super Thank You & Golden Hat Tip to the Master Turd - your analysis and the Great posts of many on this board have been very beneficial to all.  Much Appreciation!!!!

All I can is I'm glad there is a moderator on this board - ZH desperately needs that and the comments have been takin' over a LOT by insane Trolls with their pointless reply after reply of total nothingness BS.

AVOID THE TROLLS

SilverCityRocker's picture

Thanks @SRSrocco - DEFLATION FOR DUMMIES

Thanks @SRSrocco - you constantly have great posts & info.

Yep - The Charts say it all

boatman's picture

notice how

cranky everyone here gets at the end of a bottom of a pullback?

just like the pacing fathers in Monedas' waiting room.

there's got to be another anacronym in there somewhere....."CRANK"

but someone who hasn't been up watching 'certian prey' [mark harmon] will have to figure it out.

i gotta go back to sleeepppp.........

************************************************************************

“Equilibrium…seldom reached and never long maintained” – Irving Fisher

“…everything that’s intuitively obvious is questionable and everything that’s important is counter intuitive.” Howard Marks

If this isn’t a Time Magazine Cover Fade , what is: “Atlantic Magazine Cover Proclaims Ben Bernanke “THE HERO” Mish #inflation

the rest at:

 http://historysquared.com/

ClinkinKY's picture

One For The Weekend

Michael Ramirez Cartoon enlarge picture 03/23/2012

SIlverbee's picture

Price Discovery

I have a few questions about this

What makes N and A's  silver exchange different to the new Australian Bullion Exchange ABX?

Why will it be any more a game changer than the ABX?

What made PAGE important I feel and which most have glossed over is the access to 100 million or what ever Chinese domestic customers via the Agricobank of China. i.e. demand for physical raising prices. N.A.S.E does not have that potential customer base.

Some question why they keep coming out and announcing these developments the answer is simple VOLUME. They need customers to make an exchange, KWN and here create Attention, Interest and Desire which you know leads to Action (AIDA).

Also for price discovery requires signaling, rationing and incentive. Signaling is created through a recognised market one which most refer to and this is COMEX. Until GM, BV and major bullion/coin suppliers base their prices on an alternative market COMEX is the price.

I am no expert but I here only about 10% of the trading in silver exists on the Comex and the remaining majority is in the `spot market' or via direct to mine deals. If this is true why not just ignore COMEX.

I appreciate miners, refiners and users on the industrial side  feel the need to hedge but surely a better mechanism exists.

mendolover's picture

Old Lady Grace

haha she is in her seventies after all, but back in the day she was modeling when she met the band and she was a real knockout!

Groaner's picture

So have we hit a bottom?

We still have contract expirations in gold next friday..

I think we should expect another raid of some kind before then.

I thought for sure we would need about $1600 and a RSI of 30 before we take off but what do I know? Duhh missed getting in of course on that bounce..

boatman's picture

saw gracie n marty n the airplane

in the park for free in honolulu in '69.

she was hot then.

we all have that choice on how hard we want to push that pedal n deal with the consequences.

---------------------------------------------------------

the bottom?.......coin flip......deflationary sentiment[not me] seems to be reining tho.

roger the OPEX.

ggnewmex's picture

Corzine---Friday afternoon news

Talk about the oldest trick in the book. Does anyone seriously think that the media could not have come out with this news at ANYTIME other than Friday afternoon!!!!!

After every checks out for the weekend, we get a snippet about one of the biggest stories of the year, or possibly more impactful on global markets, about a CEO, who effectively authorized the looting of customer money for company gain.

Personally, this makes me sick.  If there was any hope that the media was unbiased, one can confidently say, that is completely false. What does that say for the USA's future???

On that note, have a great weekend. Thanks to Turd for all he does to maintain hope

Gg

slacker's picture

Corzine is above the law.

Corporations are too...

Too big to fail...  

Isn't that above the law?  

Like having super powers...  

Like being God.  

God Men don't do the perp walk.

I pray that I'm wrong this time.

boatman's picture

corzine

is obozo's boy

we will see.

Strongsidejedi's picture

About Corzine

Some people are making the blanket assumption that the political leadership of the Democrats and Republicans are one in the same.

That assumption is poor.

The Congress is essentially under GOP control.  Corzine was a dem and heavily involved with NJ politics.

Corzine has had more lives than Sylvester cat and Wiley coyote.

And, the GOP needs a poster boy for November's run against Obama.

My guess is that the GOP in Congress will put Corzine in the political cross hairs by November.

The only thing that can stop that action would be if the Dem's have the GOP congresscritter's black book of hookers .

Someone go drive down into the District on Friday night and look for the hooker scene near the hotels.

My guess is that alot of Congressional wives are getting "late night" in Congress calls on Fridays.

The Dems would be smart to throw that story at the same time.

Fred Hayek's picture

@strongsidejedi

The democrats control the senate right now.

boatman's picture

if i wanted

a whore i'd have one with fishnet stockings instead of a MF'ing global pres. with a beard wink

Strongsidejedi's picture

@boatman -

I know that the Dems control the Senate.
Although the Dems control the Senate, they act as if the GOP controlled House is holding their collar.

Why is it that a political party that controls the Senate and the White House can not move agenda better?

Velocity's picture

@ Mondeas ..inflation

the dictionary/academic definition of inflation is strictly inflation of the money supply. The effects of inflation are rising prices (due to devaluation of each unit of currency)

But as with many dictionary/academic definitions it is wrong as it should include all money in circulation, including credit

Because it is total money (inc credit) in supply that ebbs and flows leading to inflationary and deflationary periods ...and why shouldn't the definition include the effects, just as we define the cause and effects of cancer as cancerous!

So it's not only Benny's digital and paper printer that is the key to understanding how money effects and reprices assets and goods in the economy, you need to understand credit and other forms of credit like IOU's (iou a car loan, iou $4m if a Greek Govt Bond fails etc etc)

Benny has most definitely tripled his balance sheet but total credit in the economy is still contracting. Oil and Gold has gone up in price, car prices appear stagnant, house prices  are declining (with huge pent up deflation there if the stock was allowed back on the market)

So a very mixed, and complex, bag is our economies ...not conducive to sticking a simple label on (as Govt always tries to do)

 
Velocity's picture

@ SixDollarSilver

I'd like to respond to your post (which the Mods left up) but it's hard to when your reasoning is vacant and it's just personal insult and name calling

Your post is pointless, probably much like you(and the 26 hat tippers)

 
Velocity's picture

@ pgd73

'The Economy' in fact is no such thing... it is like the 'Average Man' a bland near-useless statistic and in fact a non-reality ..it's a terrible amalgam of inaccurate figures, invalid figures (ie. inc Govt spending in GDP is double-counting) etc etc

So when we talk about economics we should relate it to an individual business/consumer experience because the collective experience is inaccurate at best and typically a complete fantasy

So having explained my basis for understanding/looking at economics let me address a few points of yours;

4) Cost of All food items are increasing due to cost push Inflation.. Yes agreed. But individual consumers react to inflating prices by swapping to cheaper brands or just readjusting their basket of goods. Someone posted here a day ago their toilet roll meterage had been reduced by 20% and they think prices increased over the year too. So is he going to keep buying the same brand or hunt down something cheaper or if it was bread say reduce their consumption by 10-20%?

The Feds basket of goods to make up CPI might include Heinz baked beans increasing 8% since last year but maybe 20% of consumers dropped the brand and went own-label 3-for-2 and saved 15% by doing so or even dropping beans altogether for an alternative like spaghetti hoops!

6) Cost of energy is increasing: Yes. But take a lookey at the US's energy consumption, it's been in decline since the Bush Presidency. Namely despite price inflating the market's deflating. So which label would you like to put on the market??

So my point is we all act individually to changes in prices, we are not a collective. An action/cause in one area of the economy such as free money always has a mixed reaction in other parts (ie. may deflate to compensate)

We have 0.50% Fed interest rates to promote credit expansion. So what? Nobody wants it!!!! ..and credit is STILL deflating

Look at Benny trying to inflate and pump funny money in. He's not only up against individual businesses and consumers that are in deflationary mode but his own banking industry. The bankers individually do not want to expand credit to the economy for fear in a risk environment those loans will go bad too

Benny and his paper/digital printer has no control over his own 'Club' of bankers toinflate/ reflate the economy or prices in it

Yes i agree about the "boiling frog" strategy but that's to suggest every frog doesn't hop out the pot ...we will take our own actions to counter the perverse monetary policies of The Fed, such as hop into the PM's and out of a bankrupt banking system

 
 
 
Syndicate contentComments for "I'm Late, I'm Late, I'm Late!!"