Open Thread

The Turd is going to be out all day today as I am leaving shortly to make a trek to an NCAA basketball tournament site. Lots of the usual noise this morning but nothing earth-shattering so I leave this thread open in the confidence that everyone will behave themselves and always observe site rule #7.

The metals were once again raided at 3:00 am EDT. Let's see if we can build some FULBMAs today and set the stage for a price rebound next week.   TF

374 Comments

Number 47's picture

@ clinkinky

We don't have the ATF here, we just have mandatory sentences for gun ownership.  Our fight here is unwinnable while ever we reward home 'owners' for stretching themselves with massive mortgages. I subsidise these people everyday through my taxes. I pay for so much that shouldn't be. I'm a lefty, I'm not a socialist but I'm not a free marketeer. I don't know how to change things here in Ireland but I have a plan for this evening.

It's paddys day here, the garda are busy picking up drunk people and I own a hammer. Maybe I can make a statement without a gun? What can you do? I'll post pics wink Game?

Kcap's picture

Blythe Masters shall now be known only as the "Thing"

This "thing" is not human, I can tell you that.  It isn't even vampire, nor squid, nor leach.  I am not sure what it is, so from now on I pledge I will refer to her only as the "Thing".  Agree?

Kcap

(cite: pic from Jesse's Cafe Americain)

thearchitect.JPG

¤'s picture

The Coming War With Iran Part 1 & 2

ClinkinKY's picture

@ Number 47

Since I'm headed out for a "St Patty's Day Pub Crawl" here, the best I can do is snap some pics. Leaving my hammer at home:)

http://www.dianeduane.com/images/StPatrickAndTheSnakes.jpg

atlee's picture

KCAP

No not agreed. 

I think that is childish behavior that does absolutely nothing to further the goals of this website.

I am supposed to believe you are a person with inside knowledge?

I think not.

Kcap's picture

Atlee

Who said I had inside knowledge?

And I am sticking with my "thing" comment.  Your anger only destructs yourself.

Kcap

realitybiter's picture

Thorium

Don't quote me on it, but the reason we don't have a thorium reactor ecosystem is that uranium fueled reactors are a byproduct  of uranium based nuclear weapons.  In a way, this makes some sense, since we developed so many warheads that there was a lot of fuel available.  

Thorium does make a lot of sense.  Many of the newer reactor designs could be easily adapted (I am told), though it would take about 10 years to develop the infrastructure to support it.

I know that Nuscale Power looked at this a couple of years ago and felt that it would not be difficult to modify their design for thorium.  nuscalepower.com

Thorium reactors, electrify transportation....now you're cooking with gas.

¤'s picture

Modern Marvels ~ Quarries

Louie's picture

President Obama's reelection chances

I would not count out President Obama. 

  • The 47 million on food stamps, who do you think they are going to vote for? 
  • The folks on eternal unemployment, who will they vote for? 
  • Will there be an attempt to get illegal aliens to vote?  If so, who will they vote for? 
  • Will people exploit the fact that they can vote without showing ID?  If so, who will they vote for? 
  • The Occupy Wall Street movement will be out in force as soon as it is Spring.
  • If they can manipulate the silver market, don't you think they can manipulate the price of oil?
  • It will be stated that the Republican wants to take away senor citizens Social Security.
  • It looks like Romney will be the Republican nominee and he has the RomneyCare monkey on his back. 
  • Many evangelical Christians will not vote for Romney because of his religion.   

Add all of these up, and President Obama has a shot. 

Dr Jerome's picture

Louie

On target my friend.

It will not be easy to get Obama out.

Louie's picture

Divisible silver bars?

I cannot see the logic of buying a divisible silver bar (and paying a premium for it), when you can buy 90% silver US dimes with no premium.  Bought in volume with good timing, you can even get them under spot. 

I do hope that someone sends in a 100 oz bar and has it made into Silver Turds.

Baikalic's picture

lakemike and SRS

lakemike: Enjoy the run down the rabbit hole, despite the media blackout on pertinent issues to civilization there is still a wealth of information to swim in....for now at least

SRS: good to see we're on the same page. The next ten years are going to be a wild ride. Also, you're decades ahead of me in preparation since I just barely entered my twenties and have few resources to work with to make the lifestyle and wealth positions I want to make, which would be quite similar to what you've already done. But you still didn't answer whether you're a lurker/poster from The Oil Drum cool, especially since I recall a post specifically about the Seneca Cliff. I think the debates/discussions in the comments thread at TOD are similar in nature to that here at TF Metals, which is probably why I decided to join this particular PMs community.

Today I'll add something regarding world oil reserves, particularly that of OPEC's. This was inspired by SRS's discussion of the production decline's occurring in the world's giant fields (Ghawar and Cantarell being two examples). My bad if SRS has already beaten me to the punch  on this stuff.

Many laypeople and oil industry observers consider OPEC to be a medieval cartel of oil hoarders who get to decide the world's oil price by playing their position as a "swing producer." That is, many rely on Middle Eastern OPEC members to release oil to control the world's oil prices since it is often assumed they have so much oil. This is apparently supported by the Energy Information Administration's plot of oil reserves.

But...I consider the EIA to be a complicit liar. Reserves from OPEC members are not subjected to auditing, which basically means they can claim whatever they want, without verification. And the EIA (and most other oil reporting entities such as the IEA and BP) simply believes them. Indeed, OPEC has exploited this to steadily inflate their oil reserves over the years:

Notice how reserves are often inflated in tandem with other OPEC members. The historical reason for this was because production quotas within OPEC could be raised if a member's oil reserves were higher. This set off a competition for higher stated reserves among OPEC members. As a result, OPEC's stated reserves have been getting inflated probably well beyond the reality for over 25 years. Right now OPEC's total stated reserves are ~1200 billion barrels. That's a number that no oil consumer would bother about worrying about, right? That's effectively infinite for a layperson. Yet, I would guess OPEC really has only between 600 and 800 billion barrels.

What evidence is there to think that these reserves are fake? Well, Saudi Arabia claimed early in 2002 that it intended to use its swing producer status to keep the price of oil worldwide between 22 and 28 dollars USD. Look at what's happened since then? Furthermore, during instances of oil supply disruption (Libyan revolution anyone?) Saudi Arabia has failed to fulfill its role as swing producer to make up the supply shortfall. In fact, the kingdom's production history in the 2000s and 2010s might suggest that they are near or in decline already. That's hardly what I would expect, if Saudi Arabia's inflated reserves were anything close to reality. Not only that, but Saudi Arabia is apparently experiencing a buildup of ELM phenomena, as internal consumption is sapping their ability to export. Considering that their only lifeline to fund the massive welfare state in their country is oil exports, this cannot end well...

Btw, this last plot was made from the following link: http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/

You can produce reasonably detailed plots for any country. It's a fun tool!

Bugzy's picture

House dilemma - Your thoughts please

Most of the time I have good handle on stuff - however this decision has me tied up in knots. 

I have my own home half equity half mortgage. I can rent in this area for about the same price as my mortgage payments.

Do I own an asset or a liability? (Canada)

Even though there has been a housing boom in Vancouver and Toronto over the past years, my area has seen no appreciation at all. Not too far from Vancouver.

My thoughts are:

I could sell and put the equity into say "the precious". Rent around the corner - have no maintenance or property tax to pay or house insurance. If we wanted to "bug out" later, then we just go. So in reality I would have less outgoing by about $500 per month.

If (when) the Vancouver property bubble bursts, will my area suffer a drop in value, will more and more houses stay on the market will it become a buyers market and hence will I need to drop the price substantially to sell? (much like the case in the U.S.?). Chinese are buying big in Van. They are looking to safety - but is this merely a relative term. 

Canada does 60% of trade with the U.S. - will the U.S. go tits up after Obama gets re elected (ok that may not happen but it does not really matter who gets in - Ron Paul probably aint gonna make it). The $ CAD is only as high as is because of world demand for selling its family jewels (resources). Yet it is not "breaking away" from the $USD - suggesting that it is devaluing in real terms with the $USD. China and Europe etc may go into more slow down. You only need to look at the precious in CAD.

I think the Aussie (selling resources) housing market has already gone after its huge long running boom.

I am concerned about this erosion of freedoms - this perimeter protection and closer ties in everything to the south (no offense guys and gals). I suspect we are going down the exact same totalitarian route as most of the developed world. Seems like a lack of sovereignty much like is going on with the PIIGS, UK etc. Or should I say - those that serve the people (public servants) no longer serve the people - we even call them elites and czars for crying out loud! How did this happen?

So.... I suspect that the west was at its peak wealth around 1970 is. One worker per household, new car every few years and holidays etc. I suspect that this was the end of real prosperity. Nixon needed to close the Gold window etc. Public borrowing started to rise at this point. Now it is going nuts. It does feel as if we are near the end game. 

TPTB will not want or desire deflation - money velocity slows etc. Even though a drop on real estate prices would actually be healthy - in the long run. All this tied up mortgage monthly expense would be freed up to be put to use. As long as it goes into production and not to buy worthless trinkets. Thing is; I have been of the belief that owning property was ones greatest asset, and it has been.

However I now wonder if it not so anymore. I firmly believe that inflation is coming and coming big. I already notice the massive increase in food prices. I have less disposable income than I had 5 years ago. A lot less. I can only see this situation deteriorating.

So if we go into hyper inflation. What happens to house prices and rents as a function of this? Folk will be spending all disposable income on food and fuel etc. The government are going to want more tax $. One way of getting this is via income tax BUT another easy way is to increase yearly property taxes. Ideally interest rates should rise as the bond market should be demanding a greater return to keep up with real prices. Yet this is not working as the return on gov debts is peanuts in real terms (John Williams), yet people are still willing to buy them. 

Canadian banks have just reduced 5 year interest for mortgages to as low as 2.95% - this suggest that they need to entice more in and keep the party going. The market must already be slowing.

So - lock in and wait out the storm and let inflation erode my remaining debt to nothing. Hence pay the mortgage off with an ounce of the precious down the road?

Will rents go up with inflation? supply and demand suggests that as folk get relatively poorer they will need to rent instead of buy. Does this put the demand for rental up and hence the prices asked go up. Yet in the same way - if folk have less disposable then the rental price would not go up so much.

Even if we end up buying our home outright - it still is not ours. The gov can charge what it likes in property taxes in the future. $3000 now %50,000 in 5 years. You do not pay - they get to take it.

Yes - in Germany, it was a great leveler, a zero sum gain. Those with debt had their debt inflating into nothing. Those with savings lost the lot. However - Germany recovered - because the world economy was still growing strong. I think we are at peek everything right now. The end of cheap energy. There was no China or India or South Korea or Brazil or.......

What if there is no real recovery - ever! What if governments want/need to squeeze the last drop out of us. They are already raiding everything. Pensions etc. We have property rights right now ---or do we? Mf Global, Greek CDS etc. The rule of property law seems to be in rapid decline.

Thing is - it all looks so routine and fine on the surface - but so did the U.S. and the PIIGS before TSHTF

Bit long winded I agree. Property; asset or liability juxtaposed Precious offshore; asset or liability. Stay put - maybe permanently (forced via market) or fleet of foot? Freedom just a plane flight away.

Was attempting to have youtube Clash - should I stay or should I go but still cannot figure out how to embed properly.

All feedback very appreciated. This thing has me going around in circles. 

Bugzy

Fortinbras's picture

Re: new Executive Order

While i have not done a side-by-side, it looks lie it is an updated version of this EO signed by Clinton in 1994 taking into account all the new post 9-11 agencies.

Again, no side by side for nuanced onerous changes, just an FYI... Its not something new. This new one says it nullifies Clinton's. That said, would LOVE to see the side by side.

http://www.disastercenter.com/laworder/12919.htm

Nick Elway's picture

If you are waiting for Americans...

@Number 47    Thanks for your posts and perspective.

If you are waiting for Americans to figure out what is happening and do something freedom-increasing  about it you better bring a book to read.  Even on this board there's a lot of talk of  "if only the regulators weren't complicit" "if it was only our guy instead of Obama"

Republicans never met a war they didn't like.

Democrats never met a tax they didn't like.

Republicans, Democrats, and government employees; MSM including Fox and Clear Channel talkers agree that Ron Paul(or anybody that takes the constitution seriously) scares them.

I've been going through the hoops to be a delegate to the Republican convention, surrounded by people saying they believe in freedom and the constitution, yet they love the Patriot Act, the Indefinite Detention and Assassination powers, keeping marijuana illegal, the feds outlawing abortion, supporting Israel no matter what Israel does...sigh.  They seem to think things would have been different if McCain had won, and that they will be different if Romney or Newt or Santorum wins over Obama.  Sure they love their guns,  but it appears to me they love that symbol more than they love freedom.

I believe 1 in 5 (Democrats, Republicans, unaffiliated) get it enough to support Ron Paul and 1 in 10 are just beginning to suspect maybe they should be stacking.  The good news is these percentages have doubled since 2008, the bad news for voting is the number of net tax recipients already outnumber net taxpayers.

Maybe a taxpayer strike is the last non-violent chance?

Punk-Assets's picture

Anyone out there wanting to

Anyone out there wanting to know how you sell 100 oz bars of silver and 10 oz bars of gold, you can do it through someone like Provident or Apmex using FED EX and Parcelpro.com 

100 oz gold bars are going to be too much for parcel pro insurance. But you could currently sell 4 of them back to APMEX and be within the max insurance offered by Parcel Pro. When gold gets more expensive you can mix match 10, 5 and 1 oz bars to get the best bang for your buck.

Buying the lows and selling the highs while being mindful of net accumulation has allowed me to grow my stack faster. If you can sell 50 oz over the course of the year and  make your pile grow by 5 oz free and clear, its worth the effort. 

Of course this has nothing to do with all the gold and silver you add to your stack anyway. 

¤'s picture

Bugzy ~ Should I Stay Or Should I Go

It's good that you're considering any or all of that.

Magpie's picture

@Bugzy

The mortgage on your home is a liability.  The property taxes on your home are a never-ending liability.  The perceived equity in your home can disappear in a fairly short period of time.  Houses where I live (rural northern Nevada) have depreciated by up to 75%.  And, as your house ages there will be expenses.....the new roof, new furnace, new water heater, and probably new paint to keep the exterior protected from the elements.  Or pointing all the brickwork if that's what you have. 

With a little work you can run some pretty good estimates on how much the house will cost you in real dollars until the mortgage has been paid off.  Then put all of your estimated and real expenses together and convert to a monthly figure.  Then compare that to local rents, and see where you end up.  With a little discipline you may be able to save enough money to pay cash for a home.  That interest on that mortgage is a real bitch. 

Magpie's picture

I'll be moving back to the dark ages

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2115871/The-CIA-wants-spy-TV-Agency-director-says-net-connected-gadgets-transform-surveillance.html

When people download a film from Netflix to a flatscreen, or turn on web radio, they could be alerting unwanted watchers to exactly what they are doing and where they are.

Spies will no longer have to plant bugs in your home - the rise of 'connected' gadgets controlled by apps will mean that people 'bug' their own homes, says CIA director David Petraeus.

The CIA claims it will be able to 'read' these devices via the internet - and perhaps even via radio waves from outside the home.

¤'s picture

Pretty Mind Blowing If True

“We Are This Far From A Turnkey Totalitarian State" - Big Brother Goes Live September 2013

George Orwell was right. He was just 30 years early.

In its April cover story, Wired has an exclusive report on the NSA's Utah Data Center, which is a must read for anyone who believes any privacy is still a possibility in the United States: "A project of immense secrecy, it is the final piece in a complex puzzle assembled over the past decade. Its purpose: to intercept, decipher, analyze, and store vast swaths of the world’s communications as they zap down from satellites and zip through the underground and undersea cables of international, foreign, and domestic networks.... Flowing through its servers and routers and stored in near-bottomless databases will be all forms of communication, including the complete contents of private emails, cell phone calls, and Google searches, as well as all sorts of personal data trails—parking receipts, travel itineraries, bookstore purchases, and other digital “pocket litter.”... The heavily fortified $2 billion center should be up and running in September 2013." In other words, in just over 1 year, virtually anything...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/%E2%80%9Cwe-are-far-turnkey-totalitarian-state-big-brother-goes-live-september-2013

¤'s picture

Waiting For The Sun

Fred Hayek's picture

@bugzy you seem to know what factors go into the decision

There are times when it's better to rent than to own.  When home prices are going down and "owners" are not actually building equity but losing it.  There's a great site for mulling over these issues called drhousingbubble.com which focuses on the same issues as you raise in the context of the southern California real estate market.  But the same principles apply anywhere.  

Where does the canadian real estate market stand?

Are canadian interest rates likely to stay the same or only possibly go higher?  Remember, the higher interest rates go, the lower prices go.  Buyers don't pay you XXX,000 dollars for your house.  They pay a bank Q,000 dollars a month and that translates into the XXX,000 dollars to you.  

Is there any particular aspect about the economy in your particular area which will cause homes there to lose value?

What is your job security?  If you're at all uncertain, then having the money you make from selling your home will feel a bit better.  You will also be more able to move, if need be, for another job.

As to your house or mortgage in a condition of inflation, well, it's hard to say.  The last time we had significant inflation here in Massachusetts, where I live, I was a little kid.  But from what I've read, house prices went nowhere.  Of course, that was a moderate inflation compared to what may be coming.  But there are different kinds of inflation.  Karl Denninger over at marketticker.com calls the type of inflation we're about to see bust into open acknowledgement "cost-push" inflation which is quite a different thing, apparently, than the somewhat wage based inflation which characterized the 70's in the U.S.  It's nice to imagine that inflation would let you pay off your mortgage with just a month's wages or some such thing but inflation won't necessarily take that form.

You know the particulars of your situation better than anyone else can.  All I would suggest is that you make a wise choice after considering all relevant information.  It can be very hard to sell a home and choose to rent when you don't have to, when you have the wherewithal to continue "owning".  It feels in some emotional way like a failure.  It's very hard to do.  I know because I did just that in late 2010.  It was the right choice for me.

Bugzy's picture

Thanks for all the feedback - please keep it coming

I have had another thought.

Leverage!

As I own half - then in a rising market - if prices go up 10% then I make 20%

However the converse is true. If property prices go down 10% then I lose 20% of my equity.

If I sell now and buy the precious. Then if the house and precious both fall 10%, I only lose only 10%. Gold is more likely to go up yet I fear some sort of 50% capital gain being slapped on precious gains - or something nasty like that.

Sounds simple I know.

I do not think that wages will keep pace with the real real rate of inflation - that seems to be "their" MO - we all get stealth taxed into the poor house. Basically "they" are confiscating wealth as we speak. Public sector will not get 9%+ pay rises going forward. Harder times ahead.

Keep the feedback coming please. Everything greatly appreciated.

Bugzy.

abguy4's picture

DrkPurpleHaze for Musical Director Academy Award?

DrkPurpleHaze for Musical Director Academy Award?

Fahgettaboutit.

It's a done deal.

Thanks fur keepin it real.

Lord knows we needed a sound track~!

johnnydow's picture

  Spring Equinox coming up. 

 
Spring Equinox coming up.  Gold is out of season on multiple seasonal cycles after that date.  Target 1280 on Gold.
 
Looking at Platinum Panda coins online.  Nice coins.
Silverwing's picture

Silver Marvels

maravich44's picture

...@ Turd Ingo Swann..

...I'll keep it short. Check this guy out../././

Sharer's picture

RE: Irish Household 'charge' / tax

There is a MAJOR propaganda/dis-info charade currently taking place here in Ireland regarding this 'tax' or is it a 'charge'? Articles demonizing sovereign citizens, scaremongering,  'Don't Pay' campain sabotaged, general confusion, anger:

http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/column-ignore-the-conspiracy-theories-the-household-charge-must-be-paid/

It has also been challenged in the high courts due to the fact of it not being written in the Gaeilge language.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0314/household.html

However, SHEEPLE need to register to accept and pay this charge by March 31st OR face a fine of up to €2,500, the initial TAX rising and rising and 1% interest added each month until... it explodes. Government will use electricity bills to catch non payers.

While most people here are against this charge and people are hurting (financially not physically, yet), 250,000 households have already registered out of 1,600,000. Irish taxpayers are still kept comfortably numb/content and off the streets for now.

But this charge is to get people registered so later they raise the property tax to whatever number suits them. This money will NOT be used for any community benefit, schools etc. WE WON'T SEE IT! It is going DIRECTLY from a  sheeple's bank account to pay the unsecured bondholders. also a " precursor to full water metering and property charges in the coming years." [once you register, you are trapped (FOREVER AS A SLAVE)]

It will be VERY interesting to see how many households eventually pay by March 31. Also to see what happens to those who don't.  I believe shit will be hitting some kind of fan fairly soon as this SHAMBLES of a system, pathetic a paradigm comes unraveled...  Who will be left with the last contract of DEBT.?! Who has not prepared?(I know many) Who won't be able to buy their freedom after the reset?

I for one am keeping my head low and since "I haven’t received any correspondence from the government yet on this issue and unfortunately after recent media events I cannot trust the media",  and with all this internet hacking, can I trust a website claiming to be a government paysite to pay 100 pieces of paper I don't have, for a 'charge' to live in my home.? .with options to pay more in the future??

The tallest nails get hammered first, and the lads who don't tie their shoelaces, get eaten by the BEAR, and I stack logs, spices, rum, books, silver and gold.

The Body's picture

@ Bugzy

Interesting post on home ownership.  I have been struggling with exactly the same thing.  For me owning outright, having no debt and relying on others for nothing is the ideal.  The fly in the ointment, however, is your point, "Even if we end up buying our home outright - it still is not ours. The gov can charge what it likes in property taxes in the future. $3000 now %50,000 in 5 years. You do not pay - they get to take it."  That's the rub and I really have a hard time reconciling it.  Even when you are debt free and think you've truly become independent, They still have Their hooks in you with Their taxation authority.  It is sickening.  Good luck with whatever decision you make.

¤'s picture

BackStage ~ The Eagles - Hotel California ~ Live

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