TFMR Podcast #14 - Ned Naylor-Leyland Discusses PAGE, Silver and True Price Discovery

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“You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”

― Richard Buckminster Fuller

Please stop what you're doing and listen to this extremely important interview with Ned Naylor-Leyland of Cheviot Asset Management in London.

Many have wondered what happened to the Pan Asia Gold Exchange. We were all excited last summer when we first heard about it but, then, things went eerily quiet. Today, Ned Naylor-Leyland and Andrew Maguire are finally able to go public with an update on PAGE and, more importantly, information on a brand new exchange that will soon begin trading a spot, physical silver contract.

Please do three things for me:

  1. Listen to this entire podcast.
  2. Read the research note below that Ned published today for Cheviot clients.
  3. Listen to Andy Maguire's interview with Eric King. It can be found here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/2_Whistleblower_Maguire_-_US_Entity_Interferes_in_Gold_Market.html

Today is an historic day in the effort to dislodge the imperial forces that dominate the leveraged, paper markets of gold and silver. We must to grateful to Ned, Andy and all those involved in making this new silver exchange a reality. Ned promises to keep us posted with more details as the launch of the exchange draws near. For now, be comfortable in knowing that we have powerful allies who are intent upon making obsolete the existing model and will soon put forth a new structure, one that finally allows for true price discovery in the precious metals.

TF

P.A.G.E. Squashed: And now for something completely different...

by,

Ned Naylor-Leyland, Cheviot Asset Management

Last year at the GATA Goldrush 2011 conference I presented about the Pan Asia Gold Exchange (PAGE) and the likelihood of the ‘Spot Dog’ shaking off its ‘futures handlers’. This was to happen thanks to this new    game-changing    Chinese Exchange driving a return to a more acceptable form of price discovery. Much water has passed under the bridge since the ‘soft’ opening of PAGE in the early summer of last year, and everyone is well overdue an update. Meanwhile,thanks in no small measure to the debacle at MFGlobal, the spot dog has indeed thrown off its handlers (hence the emergence of backwardation in Silver) – but, as can be inferred from the title above, PAGE has also been squashed, Monty Python-style.

Fortunately, however, this is far from the full story, as the players behind the 1:1 allocated market concept are determined to make it run come hell and/or high water. The market is begging for this return to real price discovery and in spite of the interference so far, the change IS coming. It is disappointing to have to report that PAGE has not rolled out the way we anticipated, however everything that I presented at the GATA Goldrush conference was accurate at the time. The fact that a major Chinese regional development program was stalled appears, at least in part, to have been due to the publicity generated by Andrew Maguire and I. Too much is very evidently at stake in the world of Ponzi Bullion banking for the status quo not to fight its corner. Soon after the noise was made about PAGE and its forthcoming 1:1 allocated Gold contract, the shenanigans started. Just after the publicized ‘soft launch’ (with Central government mandarins in attendance) and the noise made on the internet about its implications, the one shareholder in PAGE that had a foreign listing (in the US) suddenly and stealthily increased its share-holding from 10% to 25%, acquiring additional board directors along the way. The rationale for this sudden change in the weighting of shareholders is shrouded in mystery, however what we do know is that this entity then insisted that they be allowed to build the trading platforms for PAGE from the ground up, rather than buying a working platform off the shelf to get PAGE operational in a timely manner.

This blocking tactic at board level effectively stopped the progress of the fully-allocated spot contract in its tracks, and it was immediately clear to the international-facing people that something fundamental had changed internally.    Interestingly, the key Independent Director of this small listed entity that blocked the timely roll-out of PAGE is a well-known Western banker within China, whose CV includes work for the Federal Trade Commission, the Sloan Foundation (related to MIT) and his wife is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Whether this intervention respect of the platform was nefarious or not, it was understandable that the people behind the international-facing fully-allocated contract decided to step aside from PAGE and set up their own dedicated exchange. More on that in a moment. Following on from this removal of the 1:1 international contract, the domestic and leveraged PAGE Gold contract (via the Agricultural Bank) also subsequently went the way of the dodo, thanks to the well- publicized People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announcement about control over domestic Gold trading outside of Shanghai. It appears that the shiny Gold building constructed in Kunming City for PAGE will sadly remain (as elsewhere in China) a ‘see- through’, at least until the new Communist Party Politburo are voted in and the new political culture is embedded later this year when who knows, the rules on Gold trading again may be relaxed. Ostensibly these new PBoC rules about Gold trading were brought in to ‘protect the public’, but it is interesting to me that such a U-turn in policy appears to have been driven by pressure exerted somewhere within the People’s Bank, rather than it being typically characteristic of the long-term planning of the Chinese.

As disappointing as this all appears, there is a very substantial Silver lining to what has happened, both respect of the international allocated contracts and the indeed the domestic leveraged ones. By freeing themselves of the other shareholders within PAGE, the international-facing contracts are now being developed independently and under a new name. After the shenanigans of last year Andrew and I will not be giving the name of this new exchange until it is properly ‘live’ in a few months time, as it seems obvious that too much is at stake within the existing Bullion Banking system for this to be allowed to launch without some attempt at interference.

The aforementioned change in domestic Chinese rules mean that along with every other regional Precious Metals exchange, the new unnamed 1:1 allocated exchange is launching with Silver initially, which of course is the Achilles Heel of the Bullion banking system. This in my opinion is far more bullish and exciting short and medium-term than the Gold contract would have been, as the physical Silver market is so tight.    Furthermore, all the regional exchanges mothballed by the PBoC rule change can switch, and are switching to Silver trading which is not covered by the change in rules. The contract itself will be, as before, an international rolling 90 day spot one, denominated in RMB, and the new entity is supported by the same serious players within the Chinese political and military establishment as before. The physical will be acquired ahead of closing each monthly tranche and will be vaulted entirely outside of the Bullion Banks (i.e. private vaulting facilities). From there the allocated receipts will be recorded on an electronic register and the issue will be tradeable in the secondary market with the register adjusted real-time. This is extremely good news for holders of real Silver and extremely bad news for holders of fake paper Silver who rely on the 350:1 leverage being maintained as the world’s sole price discovery mechanism for large purchases of the white metal. This effectively will be like dealing in an RMB-denominated and fully allocated version of some of the popular Silver Bullion Trusts, but rather than trading at a premium, the premium will price the issue ahead of purchase, affecting global price discovery, as previously mooted.

The guts of this new exchange that is rising Phoenix-like from the ashes of PAGE, are agreed and under construction. The international conduit for the new exchange has also been established and is ready to receive business once the legal framework (well down the road) is given final sign off by their Chinese legal team. Unlike PAGE, which was primarily established by domestic Chinese interests, the new entity is much more streamlined, better funded and the problems encountered last year by PAGE have helped to clarify the route going forwards.  All in all, the squashing of the Pan Asia Gold Exchange has in truth only served to accelerate the move to real price discovery, and the control over domestic Gold trading is in my opinion yet another reason to be bullish about the prospects for the Silver price. Once the new exchange is ‘live’ in the summer we will be back with the all- important details about where and how to gain access for those interested in buying physical in size rather than paper illusions. Many serious physical Silver buyers, who are desperate to leave the farce of the Loco London system are ready to jump ship once the final sign off takes place.

Ned Naylor-Leyland
February 2012


320 Comments

Orange's picture

Great interviews

Thanks Turd.

Thanks Ned.

Multiple Thanks to Andy who has taken such a crucial role.

Would be nice if Eric Sprott would invest in the group.

Would be nice if we could invest in the group.

Changes are coming.

exiledbear's picture

Eh. I believe it when I see it

Although it sounds more like Chinese corruption than Teh Conspiracy, but I suppose they could be one and the same. I wouldn't be surprised if you have another podcast six months from now, and oh, they're still working on getting that exchange open. I ain't holding my breath.

I find it amusing that the manipulators are losing control, or that their margins for error are getting razor thin. You think they wanted those price spikes to happen last month? They screwed up, plain and simple and had to wait for a chance to get a jam job to stick.

Note how long it took them to get it back under control too. Also take note that these events - loss of control, regain of control - they're happening faster and faster.

So we've gone from a 5month cycle to something like a 1 month cycle. Which probably means the next loss of control will happen - oh, in a week or two?

Dr G's picture

@ivars: I appreciate the time

@ivars: I appreciate the time you've put into your charts. I cannot and do not believe that the USD will go straight up from this point forward, to 120 by year end. To that end, I also believe that the Euro will play out for much longer than any of us think. Greece leaving the Euro? It's possible, and they ought to do it for the sake of their country, but I don't know that they will.

Dr G's picture

@exiledbear, good post. Love

@exiledbear, good post. Love it. Ranting Andy makes note of the same you did regarding timeline. The space between this last "event" and the prior one was only 26 days or so. So yeah, the next one should occur in 2 weeks. But to be honest, it might occur next Friday with jobs data.

Irene's picture

China? Anyone else find this strange?

Seriously.

We have criminals galore here in the US - both in business and government  - but isn't anybody worried about this exchange opening in China?  I mean, it's not exactly like China has a stellar track record protecting foreigners' investments (remember, say, all the pirated Western intellectual property or all the Chinese stocks that turned out to be total and utter garbage), and it's not like we aren't constantly worried about going to war - either heated up cold or hot - with China (and where would that leave American investments in China, eh?).

If the exchange had been located in, say, Australia, I would be happier, but China? Absolutely not.  And I think we as Westerners need to consider whether or not we're being played with this exchange by the Chinese Communist Party. 

Seriously.

Any Brit playing in Shanghai who doesn't believe that the Chinese aren't after payback big time for the Brits' role in the Opium Wars, etc. needs to listen to themselves when they're constantly "advising" us that the Chinese think long-term - because the flip side of that statement is that the Chinese have long memories.  They're always "advising" us that the Chinese are playing 4 or 5 or even 10 steps ahead.  Well, what does that tell you?  What that tells me is that when the collapse happens, there's a non-negligible probability that Westerners can kiss any assets located in China bye-bye.  Think not?  Who you gonna turn to who can do anything about it?

Seriously.

foggyroad's picture

@ Irene its simple

We would just call on on well the SEC, no wait the CFTC, no no wait th the DOJ no no unh the CME, no nuh, Fuck it nevermind.

I Run Bartertown's picture

Hmm

1) Great Interview. It's insight that I can't say I've got.

2) Thanks.

Having said that, here's my 'Simple Man" analysis:

3) "and are switching to Silver trading which is not covered by the change in rules. "

Who makes the rules? Who can change the rules and destroy this exchange at will?

4) "the new entity is supported by the same serious players within the Chinese political and military establishment as before"

The same ones who JUST got strong-armed (or tricked?) by TPTB?

I dunno, maybe I'm too cynical.

I'd love to get Andrew Breitbart's take on it....but...

digmore's picture

Many thanks for very valuable news

I own [or more strictly, am owed] unallocated silver and most of it is in HK vaults.  Hence I'm particularly interested in the news that "international" Chinese [not Mandarins] are behind Ned N-L's news of an transparent price discovery market.  In saying that I mean discovery of fiat currency prices, not silver or gold prices! 

Like Irene, I wonder about sovereign risks, but expect that Mandarins understand the value of protecting rights of honest international customers, whose wealth, like that of Chinese people and government, has been and is being stolen by Western bankers and governments.

Irene's picture

Hi foggy!

Hey foggy!

Yeah, I hear you.  But I'd rather have to rebuild here then deal with the Chinese.  ;) 

Regards,

Irene

I Run Bartertown's picture

Curious

The quote above:

“You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”

― Richard Buckminster Fuller

I wondered what existing reality this guy made obsolete without fighting. Here it is:

The Dymaxion car was a concept car designed by U.S. inventor and architect Buckminster Fuller in 1933.

I don't remember any time where this made other cars obsolete.

But,

The Montreal Biosphère by Buckminster Fuller, 1967:

I know inspired one of the more revered films in the Pauly Shore catalog (Biodome).

IMHO, this 'model' will not allow you to replace it without breaking it and liquidating its masters. Anything built prior to that will be corrupted or eaten.

Turd Ferguson's picture

CoTs confirm Cartel intent

MODERATOR

Just looking over the latest CoT. Brutal! Remember, these numbers are basis Tuesday night, right after the big suck-in day but right before the big beat-down day.

Gold large spec long  = 231,050  +16,707 on the week or +7.22%

Gold small spec long = 70,372   +3,949 on the week or +5.61%

Gold Cartel net short = 245,351  +16,049 on the week or +6.54%

Silver large spec long = 38,012   +3,193 on the week or + 8.40%

Silver small spec long = 24,180   +1,696 on the week or +7.01%

Silver Cartel net short = 44,593   +5,405 on the week or +12.12%(!!!)

​It is 100% clear to me that the trap was set on Tuesday. Silver was allowed to escape to the upside in order to entice fresh longs who would be blown out on Wednesday.

I am very much looking forward to next Friday's CoT. If I am correct, then we should expect to see a significant reduction in the Cartel net short position in both silver and gold.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Update of current Open Interest

MODERATOR

This has to be extraordinarily frustrating to the EE.

As of last night, the total OI in silver is back to where it was on Monday. In gunning the longs, all the EE was able to accomplish was a measly $1.00 drop in price. They are right back where they started with little to show for it. Silver truly is in strong hands. Could the new exchange discussed today be helping already?

As expected, the rally in gold yesterday was simply a Cartel short-covering event. Total OI contracted by over 5,000 contracts while price rose $11. Just another reason to expect more weakness early next week. Can 1705 hold? Maybe. If it fails, will 1680 hold? Probably.

foggyroad's picture

@ Irene---@TF

Something gotta a give, there's too many honest to goodness fine folk around here, to let the Blackhearted bastards win!

I have Big faith in My fellow man.

Best wishes Irene!

:)

Thanks for the fabulous site TF!!

Thanks Ned and Andy!

Irene, Your point about Opium wars and long memory etc, is well taken, I would add the  forced Silver currency de-monetization of  China and India by England as well. 

Bugzy's picture

Hang on a sec

The PAGE was squashed because some powerful folk do not want it.

So the answer is - we will be sneaky about it this time and only do Silver and we will get away with this when we come out of our closet in a few months!

Because..............? 

I am tired today, so give me a break if I am reading this wrong. 

Does not feel right to me. Sorry. Please explain.

¤'s picture

Seems related

(DPH: from a earlier post today just before this thread came out. Seems related whether it's off the mark or not, so I'm reposting it)

 

PAGE ~ Connect the dots

 
 

My belief the whole time has been the Chinese will get the West to show them how to set it up and then they'll kick the Westerners out when they're ready or have served their purpose. That's what they do.

They need London, as far as the LME goes. But what if the CME or HONG KONG buys and consolidates the exchanges into American or CHINESE hands, then what happens???

It's all connected imo. Connect the dots.

enlightenedenlightenedenlightenedHong Kong? enlightenedenlightenedenlightened

 

Hong Kong Bourse Bids for London Metal Exchange, SCMP Says

The LME, which handles about 80 percent of global trade in metals futures, has a'' good number of bids'' to consider for ...

 

CME Said to Bid for London Metal Exchange as NYSE Explores Possible Offer

Claire Miller, a spokeswoman for ICE ... Other ... The LME ... A purchase of the LME by Chicago-based CME ... LME Chief Executive Officer Martin Abbott had set Feb. 15 as a deadline for takeover bids ...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

And what of this? Imo, they're trying to learn how we do things so they can do roughly the same thing that we think is happening in our markets.

U.S. charges Chinese man with NY Fed software theft

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/19/us-nyfed-theft-idUSTRE80H27L20...

gearhead's picture

NEWB Thoughts..

I am sort of concerned the new exchange will take place also.

Do I want to provide for my family?  Of course.

Do I do it in FRN backed investments?  Seems risky with obvious inflation.

Do I do it in phyz?  Seems risky knowing that TPTB can change the rules at any time.

I guess I am just going to believe that in the end good vs. evil will win.

I am going more into phyyzz.

BTW,

Did I mention that I am dismayed, distraught, deflated, and depressed? That I feel these markets are strongly overbought, that I am going to sell, sell, sell, that I am looking to exit my positions immediately and that I believe the markets are going down? I am bearish, beaten, and befuddled- I've been badly broken by the big, bad borg. Bearish, in other words. Very bearish. A raid is rapidly approaching and I am selling.

GH

pink freud's picture

thanks for the sight/site

thanks for the sight/site turd

:cheers:

ya'll have a good weekend

and a good march to all

let the madness begin

cpnscarlet's picture

Santa Again

Santa's back with more than a few posts at the site, but here's the main one that got emailed out - 

http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/03/02/the-two-economic-clutch-type-events-of-this-period/

Trying to make sense of this crazy week, but only a call to patience seems to be the one things that needs to be said. And I hate that!

Thanks for the charts Ivars. Always keeping an eye out for another update.

¤'s picture

Raising all of our collective Turdite mugs...

(posted elsewhere   http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/137194#comment-137194 )

I see our esteemed Turd was in the house earlier clinking a couple mugs to Ned and Andy.

Here's a toast to all three of these guys from all of us....Cheers

Party SmileysParty TimeBoys Night OutBoys Night OutBachelor Party

Bachelorette PartyParty TimeBachelor PartyBoys Night OutLadies Night

¤'s picture

Yep....Turn the PAGE

And so begins another chapter in our collective journey towards real Au/Ag price discovery.

Dr G's picture

cpn, I don't see how you can

cpn, I don't see how you can give Ivars any credence. He predicted silver at $34 at the point when it was at $27. He was off by over 20%.

Over a 2 month period he predicted it would fall from $35.50 to $33. Instead, it rose from $27 to 33. He was off by a large magnitude and had the trend in the wrong direction.

What's the point?

argent rampant's picture

I concur with pining's thinking

although I cannot give him the response he's looking for - just my opinion and guesswork. Some of these questions are probably unanswerable. But, he's right, this is big and we need to apply some of this think tank's better minds to anticipating the probable results.

This news (silver contracts soon to be offered to the Chinese public) is why I was so interested in the email I got from Money Map and shared here a couple of days ago. I apologize for referring to PAGE in my initial post. I merely inferred that from the presentation MM sent out and at that point I didn't realize it is not the PAGE.

The reason I shared it is NOT that I am pimping Money Map. The presentation is clearly a sales pitch for their subscription service, which I did not buy. But what strikes me as significant is that they sent this info out to probably a very large audience. The majority of what they publish is not PM-oriented, so I assume most of their mailing list is not either. As I said, the silver market is small. When lots of new buyers (both Chinese and non-Chinese) start to pile in, the results could be more than dramatic.

Here's the link again, if anyone wants to watch what they sent out. The presentation itself is anything but exciting, to be sure, but the story is, IMO, well told and compelling.

http://moneymappress.com/video/mmp/mmr/mmr_silver.php?code=EMMRN280&n=MMRSILVER49501YR692YRTO79&o=632204&s=636684&u=27458950&l=393621&g=378&r=Milo

b&b

Live well, love much, laugh often, learn always!
¤'s picture

The USD prediction

I agree with Dr G's earlier sentiment on what Ivars has as the target in August or September for 120 as being improbable. Not impossible, but improbable.

That's the beautiful part about opinions  though, we all have them.  Time will tell on the predictions.

The only chart or predictions I really care about in a PM sense is that true price discovery happens by whatever mechanism that enables it to occur. 

Good luck to Ned and Andy on that endeavor yes   

Just imagine what we might be talking about in several months about the metals. Can you imagine being on this site and cheering and rooting silver on as it cracks $50 and it doesn't stop? cool

GoldMania3000's picture

$40 silver...1800$ gold

This seems like a major major battle to get back to these numbers.  How long does it take, i think the timing to get back to these numbers is really critical milestones.  I'm very curious how we get to the longer term numbers that Santa talks about in the next few years when we can't even get back to these critical numbers.

Lot's of congestion, but the battle continues.  What next?

NW VIEW's picture

GRANDMA WOULD PACK HER BAGS

This post is to help us get back to other important issues:    I was at a box store today and talked to an older friend and he was quite upset.  I have not seen him for a couple of years and he really wanted to talk.   He said that he had worked for the last two years to obtain a visa to move to New Zealand.  He said he had several interviews with their officials and he explained that their boarder is difficult to cross .  He said he finally has his visa and is going to move.

He said to me " You know  , the young people of America do not understand what that they have lost over the last few decades.  We who have the grey hair remember the Hope of America".  He is very upset over the work ethics of the current youth and the massive entitlements being thrown at anyone swimming onto our shores.

Yes I know, we could say " leave if ya want, there is the door".  This man is a son of parents and grandparents,  (like many of us), who came through Ellis Island and not that long ago.   He has worked into his 70's and still is working.

There is a current exodus happening in America for the first time in our history and it is not the entitlement check holders who are looking for the parting of the Red Sea.  The whole culture is in a deepening pit and when we find the bottom, even the stacks of P.M.'s will not wipe away our tears.  jmo

Fr. Bill's picture

Who Will Use the Naylor-Leyland Exchange?

The details of this replacement for PAGE are very sketchy.  When Bugzy said this:

Quote:
The PAGE was squashed because some powerful folk do not want it.

So the answer is - we will be sneaky about it this time and only do Silver and we will get away with this when we come out of our closet in a few months!

Because..............?

I thought, "Yeah. What he said!! 'Splain, pleeze!"

So, for the nonce, let's refer to the new exchange that will replace PAGE as The Naylor-Leyland Exchange, so we'll know what we're talking about.  And, reading his memo on this, my eye caught this:

Once the new exchange is ‘live’ in the summer we will be back with the all- important details about where and how to gain access for those interested in buying physical in size rather than paper illusions. Many serious physical Silver buyers, who are desperate to leave the farce of the Loco London system are ready to jump ship once the final sign off takes place.

Now, here's a question or two:

  • What constitutes a "serious buyer?" Someone who buys at least as much as $100K worth of silver? At least as much as $1 Million of silver?  At least as much as 1 Million ounces?
  • Or, is the The Naylor-Leyland Exchange going to be accessible to and useful for those who wish to purchase less than these amounts?  What would be the lower threshhold of purchases that The Naylor-Leyland Exchange would service? Just how scalable (uward or downward) is The Naylor-Leyland Exchange going to be?

As I read Naylor-Leyland's memo above, I sometimes thought about Bullion Vault.  Is The Naylor-Leyland Exchange simply a grander version of BV?

Fred Hayek's picture

Great stuff, Turd. Thank you.

I'm going to donate right now.  This is the sort of content that makes one feel that one has to.  

cpnscarlet's picture

@Dr G - I guess it all

@Dr G - I guess it all depends on what your trading horizon is.

PS - And I admit a lot of his credibility is riding on the next 6 months price action.

luv2stak's picture

maybe I'm jaded-- and love ya, Turd! -- but

I've been following silver and gold and the NWO since '99, and this sounds like another 'Happy Face' scenario or :

'everything's-OK--things-are-being-taken-care-of-behind-the-scenes-by-a-powerful- secret-hither-to-unknown-very-benovlent-and-patriotic-faction-that-has-our-best-interests-at-heart- and-will-crush-the-evil-empire-and-bring-in-utopian-paradise- and- enrich-us-all-so-just-sit-back-and-relax-because-you-don't-have-to-do-anything-because-it's-all-being-handled-for-you-and-your-ultimate-benefit'...

much as I would like to believe Benjamin Fulford, or VK Durham, or Bix or that '$200 trillion gold bonds trust' Leo Wanta guy, the cynical part of me, after 12 years of watching this corruption in our country and the markets, now spreading globally, says this PAGE replacement won't happen either, and is just another  City of London/Controller ruse to keep us 'average citizens' hopeful and inactive...

instead of telling everyone we know, liquidating our paper assets, and pasting bumper stickers and renting billboards to proclaim BUY PHYSICAL SILVER AND TAKE IT OFF THE MARKET till industry grinds to an astonished halt because they have run out of silver...

 
MAYBE THEN WE WILL SEE TRUE PRICE DISCOVERY
 
(or confiscation...)

given a choice, non-violent revolution is better

Fr. Bill's picture

Grandma to New Zealand??

Socialist New Zealand?? 

Things are bad here compared with a couple of generations ago.  And, it looks as if they're going to get a whole lot worse (hence we preppers and stackers).

But, move to New Zealand???? What is Grandma thinking?? What has Grandma been drinking?  Or smoking??

I know folks from New Zealand.  His son is immigrating to the USA, for crying out loud!

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