TFMR Podcast #14 - Ned Naylor-Leyland Discusses PAGE, Silver and True Price Discovery

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“You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”

― Richard Buckminster Fuller

Please stop what you're doing and listen to this extremely important interview with Ned Naylor-Leyland of Cheviot Asset Management in London.

Many have wondered what happened to the Pan Asia Gold Exchange. We were all excited last summer when we first heard about it but, then, things went eerily quiet. Today, Ned Naylor-Leyland and Andrew Maguire are finally able to go public with an update on PAGE and, more importantly, information on a brand new exchange that will soon begin trading a spot, physical silver contract.

Please do three things for me:

  1. Listen to this entire podcast.
  2. Read the research note below that Ned published today for Cheviot clients.
  3. Listen to Andy Maguire's interview with Eric King. It can be found here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/3/2_Whistleblower_Maguire_-_US_Entity_Interferes_in_Gold_Market.html

Today is an historic day in the effort to dislodge the imperial forces that dominate the leveraged, paper markets of gold and silver. We must to grateful to Ned, Andy and all those involved in making this new silver exchange a reality. Ned promises to keep us posted with more details as the launch of the exchange draws near. For now, be comfortable in knowing that we have powerful allies who are intent upon making obsolete the existing model and will soon put forth a new structure, one that finally allows for true price discovery in the precious metals.

TF

P.A.G.E. Squashed: And now for something completely different...

by,

Ned Naylor-Leyland, Cheviot Asset Management

Last year at the GATA Goldrush 2011 conference I presented about the Pan Asia Gold Exchange (PAGE) and the likelihood of the ‘Spot Dog’ shaking off its ‘futures handlers’. This was to happen thanks to this new    game-changing    Chinese Exchange driving a return to a more acceptable form of price discovery. Much water has passed under the bridge since the ‘soft’ opening of PAGE in the early summer of last year, and everyone is well overdue an update. Meanwhile,thanks in no small measure to the debacle at MFGlobal, the spot dog has indeed thrown off its handlers (hence the emergence of backwardation in Silver) – but, as can be inferred from the title above, PAGE has also been squashed, Monty Python-style.

Fortunately, however, this is far from the full story, as the players behind the 1:1 allocated market concept are determined to make it run come hell and/or high water. The market is begging for this return to real price discovery and in spite of the interference so far, the change IS coming. It is disappointing to have to report that PAGE has not rolled out the way we anticipated, however everything that I presented at the GATA Goldrush conference was accurate at the time. The fact that a major Chinese regional development program was stalled appears, at least in part, to have been due to the publicity generated by Andrew Maguire and I. Too much is very evidently at stake in the world of Ponzi Bullion banking for the status quo not to fight its corner. Soon after the noise was made about PAGE and its forthcoming 1:1 allocated Gold contract, the shenanigans started. Just after the publicized ‘soft launch’ (with Central government mandarins in attendance) and the noise made on the internet about its implications, the one shareholder in PAGE that had a foreign listing (in the US) suddenly and stealthily increased its share-holding from 10% to 25%, acquiring additional board directors along the way. The rationale for this sudden change in the weighting of shareholders is shrouded in mystery, however what we do know is that this entity then insisted that they be allowed to build the trading platforms for PAGE from the ground up, rather than buying a working platform off the shelf to get PAGE operational in a timely manner.

This blocking tactic at board level effectively stopped the progress of the fully-allocated spot contract in its tracks, and it was immediately clear to the international-facing people that something fundamental had changed internally.    Interestingly, the key Independent Director of this small listed entity that blocked the timely roll-out of PAGE is a well-known Western banker within China, whose CV includes work for the Federal Trade Commission, the Sloan Foundation (related to MIT) and his wife is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Whether this intervention respect of the platform was nefarious or not, it was understandable that the people behind the international-facing fully-allocated contract decided to step aside from PAGE and set up their own dedicated exchange. More on that in a moment. Following on from this removal of the 1:1 international contract, the domestic and leveraged PAGE Gold contract (via the Agricultural Bank) also subsequently went the way of the dodo, thanks to the well- publicized People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announcement about control over domestic Gold trading outside of Shanghai. It appears that the shiny Gold building constructed in Kunming City for PAGE will sadly remain (as elsewhere in China) a ‘see- through’, at least until the new Communist Party Politburo are voted in and the new political culture is embedded later this year when who knows, the rules on Gold trading again may be relaxed. Ostensibly these new PBoC rules about Gold trading were brought in to ‘protect the public’, but it is interesting to me that such a U-turn in policy appears to have been driven by pressure exerted somewhere within the People’s Bank, rather than it being typically characteristic of the long-term planning of the Chinese.

As disappointing as this all appears, there is a very substantial Silver lining to what has happened, both respect of the international allocated contracts and the indeed the domestic leveraged ones. By freeing themselves of the other shareholders within PAGE, the international-facing contracts are now being developed independently and under a new name. After the shenanigans of last year Andrew and I will not be giving the name of this new exchange until it is properly ‘live’ in a few months time, as it seems obvious that too much is at stake within the existing Bullion Banking system for this to be allowed to launch without some attempt at interference.

The aforementioned change in domestic Chinese rules mean that along with every other regional Precious Metals exchange, the new unnamed 1:1 allocated exchange is launching with Silver initially, which of course is the Achilles Heel of the Bullion banking system. This in my opinion is far more bullish and exciting short and medium-term than the Gold contract would have been, as the physical Silver market is so tight.    Furthermore, all the regional exchanges mothballed by the PBoC rule change can switch, and are switching to Silver trading which is not covered by the change in rules. The contract itself will be, as before, an international rolling 90 day spot one, denominated in RMB, and the new entity is supported by the same serious players within the Chinese political and military establishment as before. The physical will be acquired ahead of closing each monthly tranche and will be vaulted entirely outside of the Bullion Banks (i.e. private vaulting facilities). From there the allocated receipts will be recorded on an electronic register and the issue will be tradeable in the secondary market with the register adjusted real-time. This is extremely good news for holders of real Silver and extremely bad news for holders of fake paper Silver who rely on the 350:1 leverage being maintained as the world’s sole price discovery mechanism for large purchases of the white metal. This effectively will be like dealing in an RMB-denominated and fully allocated version of some of the popular Silver Bullion Trusts, but rather than trading at a premium, the premium will price the issue ahead of purchase, affecting global price discovery, as previously mooted.

The guts of this new exchange that is rising Phoenix-like from the ashes of PAGE, are agreed and under construction. The international conduit for the new exchange has also been established and is ready to receive business once the legal framework (well down the road) is given final sign off by their Chinese legal team. Unlike PAGE, which was primarily established by domestic Chinese interests, the new entity is much more streamlined, better funded and the problems encountered last year by PAGE have helped to clarify the route going forwards.  All in all, the squashing of the Pan Asia Gold Exchange has in truth only served to accelerate the move to real price discovery, and the control over domestic Gold trading is in my opinion yet another reason to be bullish about the prospects for the Silver price. Once the new exchange is ‘live’ in the summer we will be back with the all- important details about where and how to gain access for those interested in buying physical in size rather than paper illusions. Many serious physical Silver buyers, who are desperate to leave the farce of the Loco London system are ready to jump ship once the final sign off takes place.

Ned Naylor-Leyland
February 2012


320 Comments

BrentLawrence's picture

Oh well

I guess if it's still available I'll take it? First?

recaptureamerica's picture

PAGE IS DEAD according to GATA

CAN'T LINK

Dr G's picture

What a wealth of information.

What a wealth of information. We are so lucky to have ourselves surrounded by great individuals like NN-L and Turd. Glad to hear that the original PAGE idea, although fallen by the wayside, has accelerated the introduction of a new exchange for silver.

¤'s picture

Impressive & Impeccable Timing

Well played TF, well played!yes

Thanks Nedyes  ...and thanks to Andrew Maguire as well yes

This site rocks!cool

Be Prepared's picture

Amazing... Content Turd....

It's great that this site, through your efforts, is bringing such awesome content!  :-)

murphy's picture

nicely done, TF

Only read, haven't listened. However, playing devils advocate I don't see why they wouldn't have kept this under wraps until they were live. Look what happened with PAGE.

Xeno's picture

Thanks TF

Thanks TF, more input more input is always a good thing!

sevin's picture

Awesome Podcast

Still listening to it, but it is great so far. Very interesting to hear that the Chinese culture view gold as having more intrinsic value because it is more expensive. Hopefully it will come about as true price discovery might become a reality. I think that silver exchange will drastically change perception about the world's view about it as you pointed out.

yes thanks Turd! Many Hat tips for this!

Xeno's picture

@Murph

Good strategy, if parties have to ask the name then they're not involved and those that are will not tell and risk ruining the plans. 

Or, for the really suspicious, it's a boondoggle and while PAGE may change structure a bit, the foundation is laid and will roll as expected. Or as now unexpected.

The only way to get in front is stack now!

indosil's picture

Deja Vu Turd??

seems like the cartel is pushing on the gas.....34.38 for a brief moment...let's see if the buyers emerge .....Indian commodity exchange closed rt now.......so is it dejavu all over again Turd..$31 is understandable..but will silver break the barrier of $30 again?

lairdwd's picture

Impressive! Traders can't wait to ditch LBMA and Crimex

Great idea. Innovative. Congratulations on thinking outside the box. HUGE demand. Will make these guys multi billionares raking in huge commissions. 

lairdwd's picture

For short term / day traders on paper

Andrew McGuire was bullish. Said a target of 40.5 before the next paper flush. Also bullish on gold. The criminals pushed it down on crimex close just like I thought. Look for it to go right back to 34.8, and sprinkle in a little DXY weakness - maybe even 35.

John G.'s picture

Thanks much, Turd and Ned,

Thanks much, Turd and Ned, for updating us on developments.

PAGE is dead; long live PASE!

ActionFive's picture

Imagine

the corruption/bribes/death threats.

recaptureamerica's picture

Article titled....

Senseosensei's picture

Nice interview

Awesome job. Pity but understandable that some details are still clouded.

For future reference....What about the Chinese position. Will they pursue their own exchange still? Does this one have their 100% support? Will they officially own it (or via chinese businesses) or will it be owned by the foreigners. How do they plan on getting the volume required to make a difference. What will prevent foreign intervention this time around.

LOUP-GAROU's picture

Thanks

Thanks Turd, It's great to hear Ned is still hammering right along! He is doing everything in his power to bring honesty to silver trading!

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Thank you Turd, and thanks Ned

Amazing to get the inside story of this, and it is heartening that progress is being made on the 1:1 silver contracts-  we will keep our fingers crossed, and keep stacking.

Questions:   Once the entity Ned talks about is finalized and can be rolled-out for public trading, why would traders mess around with hyper-leveraged paper products of the LMBA and COMEX?  And if the obvious answer is "they won't", then what will happen to all that EE paper...  and what will happen to all the trading instruments (AGQ, UGL, GLD, SLV, etc) that are based on all that EE paper?  Will this merely hinder price manipulation?  Will it result in loss of control, fast rising prices and torch all those short?  Or will it go even farther and crater the old paper market entirely, rendering all other instruments worthless?

The implications of this need to be thought-through and hashed out fully, not just "opinion" but factually based analysis by people who know what they are doing and can look at the prospectus of these instruments...  this is big, folks.

MisesFan's picture

Cheers Turd....

and Ned!  Many, many thanks.

RE: the shareholders, of the failed PAGE, road blocking its implementation........were the Chinese truly not aware that PAGE was a direct threat to the shareholder's control/monopoly?

It is very surprising that the Chinese would not be aware of the blocking shareholder's conflict of interest with PAGE.    Or, were the Chinese purposefully engaging with the shareholder's as a "test run"?

Kuchek's picture

Thanks

Thanks Turd, Thanks Ned, Thanks Andrew. Buy Silver = Bye JPM. Keep stacking.

ivars's picture

One scenario how silver and USD will take off

According to this slightly improved October 2011 EUR/USD exchange rate prediction chart, something will happen in EURozone by the end of April/beginning of May 2012, which will start sending  EUR down from 1,34..1,32  towards 1,15-1,10:

EUR holders will respond with buying USD:

And PMs, whose prices will rise much faster in EUR than in USD, but demand will be so high that prices in USD will overcome USDx increases to increase. Gold prices will be still suppressed in USD (by interventions?) , initially:

As well as US stocks:

All charts are here:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/2814/ivars-charts

Though independently derived, these above seem to coincide nicely in time - May 2012- as a beginning of some fundamental change-irreversible one. They also point to rapidly  increasing inflation in EUROzone from May 2012 as USD priced commodities will become very expensive in EURos.

Makes sense?

lairdwd's picture

Hope Andrew and Ned clean up on this

Very innovative thinking. There is serious money to be made on the fees and commissions. Traders are fed up with the criminal activity on LBMA and Crimex, as well as the counterparty risks, and giving all the money to the bullion banks when they do the paper flushes. It's like a big poker game, except they are taking 80% in the rake.  I think adoption will be fast and furious to ditch the crimex and lbma. 

recaptureamerica's picture

TURD MADE GATA!

Great job Turd...congrats

http://www.gata.org/node/11063

ReachWest's picture

Fantastic Podcast

Great podcast - just finished listening, now. Thanks for this breaking news, Turd (and Ned)!

Bet TFMetals Report is getting a few visits from folks inside the Cartel today as they try to learn about what this is and what this new precious metals exchange means. Ha ha ha - fabulous!

Here is another Turdville focused Cartoon Newscast. This one discusses the Central Bank intervention in the Stock markets, spots Ben Bernanke at the grocery store and talks about the Greek Bond returns.

recaptureamerica's picture

China is in on gold price suppression too

China is in on gold price suppression too

http://www.gata.org/node/11061

TheSilverJournal.com's picture

Small Silver Market

Assuming there's 20 billion announces of above ground silver, the amount of silver in existence is still valued at just $700 billion. Whereas, the value of all of gold in existence is about $10 trillion, the US stock market is about $20 trillion in value and the bond market dwarfs the stock market. When fiat collapses, all of the phony wealth in bonds will disappear and wealth will be stored in other things. It only takes a small amount of that wealth to flow into silver to really send the price of silver soaring.

TheSilverJournal.com

lairdwd's picture

Looks like the criminals are covering into the weakness

Looks like they have started covering to me. Algos are selling based on DXY strength, and somebody is right there on the bid. Hopefully caries right into Happy Monday and Super Happy Tuesday

Tabberto's picture

I think

maybe that the reason these guys are talking about the exchange ahead of the event is because they have wanted to for some time and Ned mentioned they were given the green light by the people behind the exchange.  Also re the technicals it looks like a good moment to put the willies up the cartel....just a theory!  yes

SilverFocker's picture

Great interveiw

Great Idea........yet the proof still remains to be seen. I would love to see this played out as discussed, I am just not so sure that this will not be crushed the same as the PAGE was.

The rules of the game change daily by the gamer's, if they don't want another player then they won't expand the table.

I will be a pessimist that this will occur, but optimistic in hopes that it does not go by the way of the Page.

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