Pailin's Trading Corner

I have been a lurker on this forum since the beat down in September. Before that, I mostly just stuck to main street. I wanted to thank everyone for the effort they have put forth in educating and helping those with less experience.

A little about my trading history:

I am in my mid 20's, I have been fortunate to have good jobs since college. During the 2008 fiasco, I was fortunate enough to have a dad who advised me to make an investment in SLV. My first purchases were somewhere around the 9.30 level. That following summer I purchased my first MB at around 12, with the thought of rolling out of SLV and converting it to physical. Thankfully, I just let them both ride.

I pretty much stayed out of short term trading – I was busy at work and just let my longs ride; however, I did notice the often 3-5% beat down, and I always viewed these as great opportunities. Fast forward to 2011 – a friend of mine started playing in AGQ. Seeing some of his success, I made the plunge. Opened an account – and waited for that 5% drop. It didn't take long the tsunami in Japan struck – and I dove in. I pretty much let that ride throughout the spring, I think seeing this thing go straight up gave me a false sense of confidence. I pretty much let this my longs ride , then as we hit the 38 or so level for the first time last spring more money came available. I increased my stake during that April – thinking I was about to make a ton of money. It wasn't long after that I started playing around with margin as well. Sure I was sitting on gains – but I had no idea what I was in store for.

I remember being extremely long that fateful weekend. I actually had a bad feeling in my stomach for once – I remember looking at some of Turd's chats showing like a 68% gain over like 12 weeks and thinking – oh man... It didn't take long that Sunday night – I was down like 10% over the Osama announcement. That was a pretty gut wrenching experience. I think it took me until breaking 38 before I cut my losses. I also sold my SLV which had some crazy 240% gain since 2008. I moved this money to my trading account, and I was able to come back in at around 34 or so and ride it up to 38 and cut some of my losses. After this experience, I promised myself that if I could get back to even, I would get out of this AGQ beast.

During the first part of the summer – I had some difficulty moving to trading on a shorter timeframe. I found myself getting whipsawed quite a bit. That was pretty discouraging. But I did learn that it was ok to short it sometimes – using ZSL for the first time. About midway through the summer I really started to hit on all cylinders. I remember catching the fall from 38-33 – that was a good day. Then I also caught the run-up from 39 or so to 43 (after being short from 38-39). During this time I also starting putting a percentage in gold, rather than being all in Silver. You can't really call that diversification – but hey – give me a little credit.

Once I got up to 43, I had practically erased my losses – I think I was up like 4 Grand. Did I keep my promise – no – I wanted to not only make up my losses but my lost gains. Thats only fair right. During this time, I was also talking to one of my friends who was also active in Silver. I remember him telling me he could see a pullback to 38. I thought he was crazy – but I did lighten up by half I think. Good thing I listened – we saw 38 again. Then came the FOMC decision. I got whipsawed all around – but ended up going home maybe 50% long over that September night. Woke up the next morning – silver is down like 7%. I actually saw this as a blessing, and I started buying. I also happened to be away from my computer for most of that day – so I was monitoring everything from the phone. I think I went home that night pretty much full up – thankfully no margin. Next day wake up – Silver is at like 33 – for some reason I knew this was going to hold. I started selling into one of the bounces we had early that day, and then set a stop for the rest. Really considered placing a short on that day – but I was talked out of it (can't say that a short would have been smart at that juncture anyway). Needless to say – I once again found myself down like 50% again. Although – the feeling this time was not as bad. I actually felt pretty lucky. Some of my friends took it even worse – and called it quits.

The next Monday when the markets opened – I think they opened around 28, and for some reason – I saw this as a shorting opportunity. I think I places the short around 29.5 or so – that whole summer I had noticed the beat downs that started around 12:00 EST, so I placed it. Boy was I wrong. It closed around 30 something that day. It hurt taking a loss both ways. It was around this time that I got hit with the day trading minimum requirement – what a pain. This combined with my loss of “nerve” made things really difficult. In hindsight – I really should have left the markets for a while to take a breather because over the next few months I lost another 50% or so.

After the September beat down, I started reading this corner daily. I can't say that my trading instantly improved (It didn't) – but I can say that I have learned a lot from this corner. With your help – I am now playing this game a little smarter; however, I am sure my lessons will continue. 2012 has been a little bit kinder to me.

You probably won't find me posting much here – I don't have a lot of value to add at this point. I am sure there are others out there with a similar experience on this board. More than anything – I want to say Thank You.

I believe that we are in a pretty strong bullish cycle – but I am going to remain a little bit more open to the opposing view this time around.

that guy writes poorly."more matter and less wit" might be recommended. I hate wading thru articles written by engineer-techies, they can be insufferably tedious. I think about 3 lines would suffice.  So where is the GSR now and what is the implication? Last I heard it was around 50 right? or is it 40? Anyone have an idea about the parameters here and their implications?

"Have the bullion banks profited for years by naked shorting the PM "markets" and then initiating waterfall declines into which they can cover and profit. ABSOLUTELY! Is that what they're doing here? I don't think so. As I've repeatedly stated, I believe that The Cartels were completely freaked out and frightened by the events of 2011 and they have spent the last 10 months manipulating PM prices in an attempt to minimize and/or extricate themselves from their perennial short positions. What they didn't expect was $2T in fresh global liquidity in the past 90 days. As I laid out yesterday, everything is going higher, just like during overt QE2. Throw $2T around and it spills everywhere. Crude, gold, beans, cattle, copper...everywhere! The race higher is unfolding so quickly that The Cartels have been left with no other choice but to maintain their roles as market maker. Like the Specialists of old on the NYSE, The Cartels must take the "offer" side of the trade when things get disorderly to the upside, just like they must supply a bid when things are disorderly to the downside. (Though, during coordinated raids, The Cartels have obviously been reluctant to aggressively supply that bid.)"

I didn't want to say....there appears enough tension on the board today without paying attention to petty details.

Starting to think there's way too much $$$ being injected into these markets for us to see any "risk assets" go down much. Maybe a 5-10% downward move? Hopefully we do get that pullback.

Silver definitely seems like it's trading sideways from approx. $33-36, awaiting that break out. Of course that can go either way, up or down.  But the more I look at everything currently going on, all the elections , etc, the more I can see Gold test the highs at 1900+ and silver make a move upward to 40 or higher.

If only any of us really KNEW.

Either way this is a great trading corner.  Hope you all do well this upcoming week.

​Anybody's​ charts are for information purposes only imo.  Following someone's squiggles blindly would be, well... blind.  

Waves, horizontal resistance/support, stochs, MACD, RSI, crossovers, breakouts, flags, pennants, averages, channels, rhino horns... You name it, they're all just constructs that 'work' some of the time.  Although mine works a little differently, I think Pailin's money management would be a far better (read: more profitable) style to emulate for most.

Thank you, General Atlee and your officers and men. I rarely post much due to paranoia...but 
I want to thank Palin for the pivots, Silver Wealth for the laughs and insights, Atlee for down to earth views without the BS, and all the other posters that add value (for free!) which are helpful to me to make a few bucks. Last week, I was primarily trading EXK and although successful, couldn't help but notice the Bots moving the price up and down with the spot price and they looked like they lost their way for a while in the afternoon friday...It is completely insane that robots have taken over the markets. At times I just stop and just buy PHYS or PSLV and take a break as it pisses me off so much. (most of my cash is in physical) and I trade in my IRA with Interactive brokers. Anyway, thanks for the comments and help, troops! 

You may need to keep better up to date on world financial news, because something like a $2 trillion commitment coming out of the G20 meeting should not get by you.  I mean the big U.S. bailout was for 800 billion, and that was a very big deal.  This represents 2.5 times that amount in rescue funds.  

Like I said, gold and silver cannot really go down if they go down at all in today's environment.  

Pick your news source:

http://search.yahoo.com/search;_ylt=A0oGklFsCktPByYAa7UQRAUJ?p=g20%202%2...

You and I Titus, but I'm not that nervous.  I think we have at least till Wednesday to see how things will unfold.

Enjoyed Crystal as always, though I thought he had a little less punch than usual.  Also don't like how he looks.  Doesn't look very well to me.