Pailin's Trading Corner

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For the record - I have no

For the record - I have no idea what will happen next week, next month, next year. BUT I will have fun working the markets and I'm pretty sure I'll make more than buy/hold, return more annualized than the major indexes, and continue to middle-finger the establishment in everything I do. That last one may end up being 'worth' more spiritually than the pyramided increase in buying power. Which is just fine!

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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

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It's the weekend, have

It's the weekend, have fun...

Netflix recommendation for February -

The Killing of a Chinese Cookie

2008 NR 75 minutes

Take a peek inside the history of the fortune cookie in Derek Shimoda's whimsical documentary, which examines the pop-culture persistence of the North American dessert that's rarely found in China. The film includes interviews with several people who claim their ancestors invented the cookie, as well as with celebrities like TV chef Martin Yan and the witty scribes who write the cookies' fortunes.

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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

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consistency

redwood wrote:

There is much instability, volatility in all parameters that affect the markets.  We all know the scenarios by now.

I've just taken a long winded approach to basically saying perhaps we can't at this juncture judge the future from past patterns. Just sayin.

I don't want to cause a ruckus here by questioning anyone's systems, but I agree with your summary Redwood.

Yes, PM prices have often surged on Tuesdays and have shown consistent strength/weakness at certain times of the day.  Any consistencies in price action are of course opportunities ​while they remain true.  

I myself have used biases such as the above to profit handsomely - thanks to those who have analysed and shared in great detail.

However, the only consistent consistency imo is a zig zag pattern that has tops and bottoms as it progresses.  Far and away, the majority of my successes in taking profit and protecting against losses have come from recognizing tops and bottoms.

About 5 years ago I made 2 'flip books' of un-named, sequential, historical 15M gold and silver charts.  At first, I just flicked through them, calling 'top', 'bottom', 'top' and so on.  I now use them as a daily warm up before trading. 

In the end tops and bottoms mostly look similar - you can't nail them every time, but with practice you can nail them more often than not.  All you have to do then is ensure your losses are smaller than your gains... simple ;)

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Some here at the corner know

Some here at the corner know I'm one for supporting pattern recognition....it can have great benefits and has been to my great advantage. So thanks sixdollarsix, but I think that post was perhaps more a post to myself than anyone else.  I got sideswiped last week with preoccupations of OE exactly for falling into that pit.  I think honestly though that we have just entered another dimension of financial regulation, or perhaps more aptly called financial chaos.

I could use cancer as an analogue.  By definition cancer occurs when cells multiply  uncontrollably because of  failing  cellular signals.  That is, the signals that once governed cellular growth no longer work.  As such, patterns of growth are highly irregular, aggressive, and soon lose their normal appearance.

With metatstatic cancer, now even more advanced, it is always a post hoc analysis...it is largely unpredictable.   That's where our financial system has been heading and accelerating. Time frames for predictability are getting shorter and more volatile.  We can still try and use our usual cues, TA, pivots, etc. but increasingly its less predictable.  Does manipulation play into that? Of course.  But it has superceded that imo.   

Just in the last year, those we have relied on, the regulars.... Sinclair, Turk, Sprott, Embry have been almost publicly humiliated for their missed calls, when historically that has  been less the case.  Prior to this period, I attribute a lot of my success in trading from following their lead.   No so in the last year.  The most important last thing I remember was when Sprott  last April warned that miners were decoupling from equities with heavy suppression.  I got out and missed the May massacre. 

I'm not hopeless, just reorienting my compass.  Contrary to their beliefs, the bastards can be outsmarted.....as our famous Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau once said  "just watch me".

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Love the confidence Pailin.

Love the confidence Pailin. Along with your excellent money management.. it's no wonder you're banking :)

Banking the fiat, Stacking the Phyzzz. yes

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thanks for the analogy Redwood

Sinclair for me has always been like a horn in heavy fog, guiding with certainty if not accuracy.  I'm in a small boat on a big sea.  I shouldn't really be this far out, but I'm well prepared, and always vigilant.  Sometimes mountainous black rocks emerge from the soup in front of me.  I've had a few scrapes, but that horn is always there at appropriate times, sometimes appearing closer or further than I expected and perhaps indicating a new bearing.  I've occasionally caught sight of fellow wayfarers, some lost to the deep. The thrill of being out here alone with the elements is at times all-encompassing.  The storms all pass eventually and a moon rise over a calm sea on a starry night is truly something to behold.  Life is for living.

I've lost good friends to cancer and know well the human externalisation of the process you describe.  I too see the same symptoms of chaotic acceleration in our markets you describe.  Tops and bottoms should become easier to spot shortly, maybe just harder to catch.

It's a lovely warm Sunday evening here.

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some new charts from jesse and dan

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.co.nz/2012/02/ellliot-wave-projection-for-price-of.html

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.co.nz/2012/02/strong-weekly-close-in-gold.html

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@Rico

GSR closed week 49.88 :)

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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

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Rothschild

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/2/25_John_Williams__Warning_-_Monetary_Base_Spikes_to_Historic_Level.html

as I have argued many,many times before on this blog, the Rothschilds are not going to tell you when they are printing money, they are not going to give anyone a heads start on QEIII or whatever they decide to call it this time. They are going to do it under cover of darkness and then announce it after the fact.

If your in a race with someone and they leave early,cross the finish line, grab the starter pistol and then fire it off, you could run a 9.0 for the 100 meters and still lose by 100 lengths.

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Norcini

Regarding Norcini, yes his charting is clear however...

First off there is no 'strong support' for GC at the 1707 line that he highlights and there is no 'resistance' at 1800. These are strictly temporary guidelines both of which are easily blown thru off news blurbs or whatever. They merely mark buy-into-weakness- points or sell into strength points on any chart. Also they may mark momentum buying pts if we break 1800.

Norcinni say he would like 2 monthly closings over 1800 to confirm? What? Then its time to climb in? Are you serious? Gold could easily bolt to 2000 and beyond and you are still waiting for 'confirmation'? That therein is the fallibility  of intermediate term charting. The train is moving far too fast, sorry.

Long may the shorter time frames live. If one follows these guys religiously you will constantly be buying high into high risk zones or taking stop losses after huge waterfalls 'confirm' the misery you already feel. This kind of charting can be dangerous to one's health, yes its clear but it is LAGGING.  Will the U.S. field an 88 year old guy in loose fitting Munsingwears to represent us in the 100 meter dash??? I hope not.

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afternoon study

Trying to leave at all the guessing about borg strategy behind and simply look at charts.

I can see good case for both sides. Breakout target of 37.92 to 38.10 and

break down to 33 to 30.  I am using spot charts.

I am still leaning in the direction of pullback. Glad I do not have an open position over the weekend.

BTW, It distresses me greatly that we have not got the majority of viewers, public, players etc past the knowledge that intervention occurs in futures markets not the spot. Net fucking dania is spot and it is a free service. They even tell you themselves their volume numbers are not accurate or representative of what is really happening.

To entertain the idea that 100 million ozs were dropped in the spot (cash) market ( that is real silver) by the borg in a market were a big portion of our bullish argument is tight supplies, is childish and mind boggling. It only serves to prove that people will believe what they want to be true regardless of the evidence. They would use those supplies to deliver against futures if they had them to lose in an explosive mkt not waste them in the spot to curb a price rise. Man it is truly laughable and embarrassing.

You must also know that whatever happens in the cash market is arbitraged against futures or vise versa. So if one moves out of line with the other, it presents a low risk trade to push it back by taking opposite sides in each mkt. Maybe you should google arbitrage if you don't understand. So it would not happen in one and not the other. Then there are the dinks that say you are not looking at the 1 minute chart. Man do I have to even go there with you Brother John.

Honestly, it makes me much less enthusiastic about participating in websites were people believe the moon is made of green cheese. What kind of intelligent thought will I glean from that conversation?

I truly have no idea which way we go but will be surprised if it is as easy as buy the breakout. But not saying don't do it.

Try to keep your eye on what is really happening instead of what you want to happen.

Good luck. 

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FWIW QE3 started before 2012.

FWIW QE3 started before 2012.  Around August when Bernanke said artificially low interest rates until 2014 or whatever... Can't just say that and waive your Mickey Mouse magic wand.  M2 & M3 went crazy ... absurd money printing.  Big Ben is clearly in the markets.

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Iran refuses to deliver oil

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/228732.html

Oh should be an interesting Monday, if not Sunday night.

Who needs TV, right now everyone needs a good internet service, with 2 computer systems, one as a back up.

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pailin wrote: GSR closed week

pailin wrote:

GSR closed week 49.88 :)

Yeah, that break below 50 is significant.  

Do you remember the GSR paper that Joeka linked to, a while back?  It had some really interesting observations about the movement of the GSR over an entire cycle--not what the "conventional wisdom" would typically have one believe.  I can try to find a link to it, if you want.

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redwood

redwood wrote:

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/228732.html

Oh should be an interesting Monday, if not Sunday night.

Who needs TV, right now everyone needs a good internet service, with 2 computer systems, one as a back up.

I wouldn't deliver a pizza to Greece...

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Quote:Honestly, it makes me

Quote:
Honestly, it makes me much less enthusiastic about participating in websites were people believe the moon is made of green cheese. What kind of intelligent thought will I glean from that conversation?

That pretty well sums it up. The conversation about the 1-min silver chart is never-ending apparently. Turd put up an excellent Friday blog and the usual weekend frivolity followed regardless of the great content. I felt the same way about the Ouija board demons and satanists last weekend. If people take stuff like that seriously, then why bother with the website at all? In the face of facts, people will believe what they want to believe. If I leave the discussion forever because if it, it really has no impact. If you do, atlee, that's a different story. Your contribution has a real impact that would be sorely missed by all of us.

Maybe you're not getting back much from PTC. If you want, I will do a homework assignment for you. Just name it or spell out the scope of work. 

Call me shamelessly devoted.blush

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...

double post

Silver is money
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I subscribe to the formula of Keep It Simple, Stupid

$2 trillion committed this week-end.  Those $2 trillion have to come from somewhere, and Europe sure as hell doesn't have it lying around.  We are going higher, immediately.  Period.  Everything else is noise.  Maybe not much higher, but this news screams BUY and the markets ought to reflect this tonight.  We should not go down before Monday afternoon at the earliest IMO.   

I don't know what happens after or at $35.71....maybe we stall, but I think that we challenge it on Monday. I also expect the Dow to cruise through 13K also and hold above it at the close. 

Regarding the Netdania thing, this isn't the first time that we have seen something on Netdania that failed to show up elsewhere, so without a confirmation from at least ONE other trading system we must assume that Netdania glitched.  What I do know is that there was definitely a sell down of volume (maybe not huge like is being suggested) at the time in both metals and it was bought enthusiastically (more on the silver side) and that is significant.

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Rico wrote: Do you remember

Rico wrote:

Do you remember the GSR paper that Joeka linked to, a while back?  It had some really interesting observations about the movement of the GSR over an entire cycle--not what the "conventional wisdom" would typically have one believe.  I can try to find a link to it, if you want.

I do vaguely, a link would be awesome...thanks!

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I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon. -Baron Rothschild

Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones. -Bertrand Russell

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@Pailin, http://www.financial

@Pailin,

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/metal-augmentor/gold-silver-ratio-reconsidered

There you go.  The methodology is a bit hard going, but once you "get" the author's construct, the conclusions are really interesting.  I would say that, based on that data, the current decreasing GSR argues we are not near any kind of blow-off top.  See what you think.

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