Pailin's Trading Corner

Some here at the corner know I'm one for supporting pattern recognition....it can have great benefits and has been to my great advantage. So thanks sixdollarsix, but I think that post was perhaps more a post to myself than anyone else.  I got sideswiped last week with preoccupations of OE exactly for falling into that pit.  I think honestly though that we have just entered another dimension of financial regulation, or perhaps more aptly called financial chaos.

I could use cancer as an analogue.  By definition cancer occurs when cells multiply  uncontrollably because of  failing  cellular signals.  That is, the signals that once governed cellular growth no longer work.  As such, patterns of growth are highly irregular, aggressive, and soon lose their normal appearance.

With metatstatic cancer, now even more advanced, it is always a post hoc analysis...it is largely unpredictable.   That's where our financial system has been heading and accelerating. Time frames for predictability are getting shorter and more volatile.  We can still try and use our usual cues, TA, pivots, etc. but increasingly its less predictable.  Does manipulation play into that? Of course.  But it has superceded that imo.   

Just in the last year, those we have relied on, the regulars.... Sinclair, Turk, Sprott, Embry have been almost publicly humiliated for their missed calls, when historically that has  been less the case.  Prior to this period, I attribute a lot of my success in trading from following their lead.   No so in the last year.  The most important last thing I remember was when Sprott  last April warned that miners were decoupling from equities with heavy suppression.  I got out and missed the May massacre. 

I'm not hopeless, just reorienting my compass.  Contrary to their beliefs, the bastards can be outsmarted.....as our famous Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau once said  "just watch me".

Sinclair for me has always been like a horn in heavy fog, guiding with certainty if not accuracy.  I'm in a small boat on a big sea.  I shouldn't really be this far out, but I'm well prepared, and always vigilant.  Sometimes mountainous black rocks emerge from the soup in front of me.  I've had a few scrapes, but that horn is always there at appropriate times, sometimes appearing closer or further than I expected and perhaps indicating a new bearing.  I've occasionally caught sight of fellow wayfarers, some lost to the deep. The thrill of being out here alone with the elements is at times all-encompassing.  The storms all pass eventually and a moon rise over a calm sea on a starry night is truly something to behold.  Life is for living.

I've lost good friends to cancer and know well the human externalisation of the process you describe.  I too see the same symptoms of chaotic acceleration in our markets you describe.  Tops and bottoms should become easier to spot shortly, maybe just harder to catch.

It's a lovely warm Sunday evening here.

Regarding Norcini, yes his charting is clear however...

First off there is no 'strong support' for GC at the 1707 line that he highlights and there is no 'resistance' at 1800. These are strictly temporary guidelines both of which are easily blown thru off news blurbs or whatever. They merely mark buy-into-weakness- points or sell into strength points on any chart. Also they may mark momentum buying pts if we break 1800.

Norcinni say he would like 2 monthly closings over 1800 to confirm? What? Then its time to climb in? Are you serious? Gold could easily bolt to 2000 and beyond and you are still waiting for 'confirmation'? That therein is the fallibility  of intermediate term charting. The train is moving far too fast, sorry.

Long may the shorter time frames live. If one follows these guys religiously you will constantly be buying high into high risk zones or taking stop losses after huge waterfalls 'confirm' the misery you already feel. This kind of charting can be dangerous to one's health, yes its clear but it is LAGGING.  Will the U.S. field an 88 year old guy in loose fitting Munsingwears to represent us in the 100 meter dash??? I hope not.

FWIW QE3 started before 2012.  Around August when Bernanke said artificially low interest rates until 2014 or whatever... Can't just say that and waive your Mickey Mouse magic wand.  M2 & M3 went crazy ... absurd money printing.  Big Ben is clearly in the markets.

Yeah, that break below 50 is significant.  

Do you remember the GSR paper that Joeka linked to, a while back?  It had some really interesting observations about the movement of the GSR over an entire cycle--not what the "conventional wisdom" would typically have one believe.  I can try to find a link to it, if you want.

That pretty well sums it up. The conversation about the 1-min silver chart is never-ending apparently. Turd put up an excellent Friday blog and the usual weekend frivolity followed regardless of the great content. I felt the same way about the Ouija board demons and satanists last weekend. If people take stuff like that seriously, then why bother with the website at all? In the face of facts, people will believe what they want to believe. If I leave the discussion forever because if it, it really has no impact. If you do, atlee, that's a different story. Your contribution has a real impact that would be sorely missed by all of us.

Maybe you're not getting back much from PTC. If you want, I will do a homework assignment for you. Just name it or spell out the scope of work. 

Call me shamelessly devoted.

$2 trillion committed this week-end.  Those $2 trillion have to come from somewhere, and Europe sure as hell doesn't have it lying around.  We are going higher, immediately.  Period.  Everything else is noise.  Maybe not much higher, but this news screams BUY and the markets ought to reflect this tonight.  We should not go down before Monday afternoon at the earliest IMO.   

I don't know what happens after or at $35.71....maybe we stall, but I think that we challenge it on Monday. I also expect the Dow to cruise through 13K also and hold above it at the close. 

Regarding the Netdania thing, this isn't the first time that we have seen something on Netdania that failed to show up elsewhere, so without a confirmation from at least ONE other trading system we must assume that Netdania glitched.  What I do know is that there was definitely a sell down of volume (maybe not huge like is being suggested) at the time in both metals and it was bought enthusiastically (more on the silver side) and that is significant.

@Pailin,

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/metal-augmentor/gold-silver-r...

There you go.  The methodology is a bit hard going, but once you "get" the author's construct, the conclusions are really interesting.  I would say that, based on that data, the current decreasing GSR argues we are not near any kind of blow-off top.  See what you think.