Looking To BTFD In Silver and Gold

Wow, this is crazy, isn't it? There is so much crapola going on in the world that, seriously, I don't know where to start. So, I guess I'll start where I'm most comfortable...with the ruler and the sharpie...and wait till you see what I've found!

As I've mentioned quite a few times as of late, this 20%+ equity rally over the last three months makes me nauseous. While I feel that the perfect 45-degree rally is a clear sign of Fed manipulation, others argue that it is the rational result of The Great Global Liquidity Flush of 2012. Maybe they're right? Maybe we're all right? Who knows? All I know is that the charts don't lie and they are what they are.

To that end, below is the most important chart of the day...perhaps of all 2012 to date. Note that since the panic beatdown and collapse of December, gold has been in a similar pattern to stocks. Take a look:

paper_2-22amgoldd.jpg

From this chart, I think we can deduce several things:

  • Since it's not just gold and equities that have this 2012 pattern, there really is a Great Liquidity Flush happening and it will likely continue throughout the year as the central banks desperately try to maintain the illusion of recovery and hope.
  • The Cartel is still active in trying to manage gold's ascent. Note that this range rises a perfect $100/month.
  • If we expect The Great Liquidity Flush to continue then this chart pattern should continue, as well.
  • The current floor of the channel is at $1720. This means that by late April, the floor of the channel will be at the old all-time highs for gold, near $1920, and the top side of the channel reaches there by late March.
  • Buy gold. Buy it on the dip or buy it on the rally. In the end it doesn't really matter. Just buy it.

Now, the next question is: Can we get a dip to buy? Maybe. In fact, I kind of like our chances that we'll get that dip, sometime between now and Thursday afternoon.

First of all, the POSX is rallying. In fact, at 79.30, it's actually above the level at which it was trading pre-Greece on Monday. Interestingly, the metals are holding in there today even while The Pig strengthens. I have a hunch, however, that a few WOPRS may eventually trip into "sell" and take the PMs down a few dollars.

paper_2-22ampig.jpg

So, where might that dip take us? In gold, I will be very excited if we can get a dip to 1740-45. You can clearly see that area on these two charts:

paper_2-22amgold6.jpgpaper_2-22amgoldh.jpg

In silver, the BTFD area is also clearly defined. Take a look at these two chart first:

paper_2-22amsilvd.jpgpaper_2-22amsilv6.jpg

And now check out this hourly chart. If a dip develops to 33.70-33.80, it sure looks like a solid buying opportunity. The only thing complicating matters somewhat is the pending expiration of the March options at the close tomorrow. Keep that little item in mind if you are attempting to trade today and recall how SLV call holders were treated when their options expired back on Friday.

paper_2-22amsilvh.jpg

Lastly, I'm trying really hard to bring myself up-to-speed on this Greek "bailout" deal. If you want to take a crack at it, too, try reading this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/summarizing-open-questions-surrounding-second-greek-bailout

and this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/psi-scenarios-and-greek-bond-trading-thoughts

and then consider this:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/iifs-dallara-warns-holdout-greek-bondholders-could-kill-successful-greek-deal

What I can't figure out is why a powerful hedge fund would allow themselves to get screwed in this deal. Why wouldn't a loose consortium of hedge funds band together and deny the deal? Because the ECB and the Fed are so afraid of a CDS trigger, couldn't these funds force them to sweeten the deal in a sort of 80s-esque "greenmail" attempt? They could even short JPM and GS, profit from putting the squeeze on and then close those positions right before they accept the sweetened deal!

Anyway, it seems to me that there is a palpable sense of desperation to avoid CDS triggering through a Greek default. In the next few weeks and days, there will be some wild volatility as markets react to "deal on" and "deal off" rumors but, in the end, a deal will be struck that will be much more costly than that which was announced yesterday. Costly = more euro and more dollars. Costly = continuation of the Great Liquidity Flush of 2012. Costly = gold and silver continue to rally and perhaps even accelerate to the upside.

Of course, I could be wrong. Maybe default is inevitable next month. Gonzalo seems to think so:

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2012/02/fearless-prediction-on-march-20-greece.html

However, this event is PM-positive, too, as breaking up the euro will also drive the PMs significantly higher. Maybe not so much in the near term but definitely in the longer term.

So, there you go. That's all for now. Crude is still over $106 and, the more time it spends at $106+, the more certain you can be that it is headed to at least $115. Got UCO?

More later. TF

161 Comments

Silver2500's picture

First!!!!! Thanks TF.

First!!!!! Thanks TF.

GoldMania3000's picture

Not taking your advice Turd:)

Sorry, I just went a little long today, bought some 1950-2000 gold spreads - Feb 2013.  $1200 with potential for a 4 bagger.  i hate buying short term.  I like to go long,  that's my mantra..so i don't get fcuked like last April.  Took it so far up the bottom that it came out of my mouth. angry

Pegasus's picture

Thurd

Thurd is good!

Turd Ferguson's picture

If buying that far out...

MODERATOR

...I wouldn't wait, either!

GoldMania3000's picture

yeah..

and got some 38-39 and 39-40 silver spreads for Dec 2013 around the same price two weeks ago. that' longer the long john silver:)

opalboy's picture

Stack stack stack

Man they can draw this shit out,

but it is opportunity!

Edward G's picture

Fitch to declare Default?

Fitch have relegated Greek Debt from CCC to C according to the Telegraph, and are saying this deal going through will count as a default as far as they are concerned - which is a D rating....this just came through their live blog so a bit vague for now...

Re the stocks rally, I do agree with the liquidity juicing story, but it is interesting to hear the astrology guy Ray Merriman who Turdite "Timer" I think was his name turned us onto on blogspot...Ray thinks this rally will break down before March 7th, so interesting to observe while we sit in this flat calm for PM's, yawn, waiting for the wind to get up in them sails shipmaties  x

Dr G's picture

$38 silver will never be in

$38 silver will never be in the money by Dec 13 :)

Turd Ferguson's picture

link

MODERATOR
TheSilverJournal.com's picture

For The Good Of The Ponzi

The IIF is rollin' on hopium and denial that private investors are going to jump on the "voluntary taking of losses train" for the good of the world monetary fiat ponzi. Of course, the "good" thing would be to end this fiat ponzi ASAP so the governments of the world stop stealing the resources of the world through the printing press.

TheSilverJournal.com

GoldMania3000's picture

@dr. G

ya know, the thought actually crossed my mind. But im such a risk taker devil.  If we dont' get 38 silver by then im going to buy long-term bonds

securi_D's picture

Greece

With 720% 1 year Greek bonds, the outlook is looking pretty grim. If Greece does end up restructuring (defaulting) and goes back to the Drachma, will other countries such as Italy, Portugal, Spain, etc. do the same and expect the same? Will this break up the Euro entirely? Wouldn't this cause a flight of "safety" back to the dollar, then driving the POSX up higher in the near term, this suppressing PM prices in the short term? I do believe this will be PM positive in the long run, but I am very cautious in the short term.

I think the ECB will ask the FED to step up and help bail out the institutions who made the bad bets on Greek bonds, and Greece will most likely go back to the Drachma. There is NO WAY that the banks will take the hit... It's always been the people who bailed them out. Why would that change now? I'd be more concerned of the other European countries who will be put in the same position Greece is 2 years from now expecting some forgiveness and not getting it.

-_D

Dr G's picture

Here is the link regarding

Here is the link regarding the Fitch/Greece downgrade story: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9097237/Debt-crisis-live.html

PS. Nigel Farage for US President. Seriously.

Punk-Assets's picture

Nutshell...

"Buy gold. Buy it on the dip or buy it on the rally. In the end it doesn't really matter. Just buy it".

Best advice you've ever given. In the end it is all that will matter anyway. Highs, lows, WGAF?

:o)

artaud23's picture

@ securi_D

That is my take away from the Swiss debacle late last summer. At the time I couldn't envision anything being more PM positive than annihilation of the last true flight-to-saftey currency. Yet PM's were crushed - presumably by the Swiss themselves on command of their EE overlords. The cabal said, "Sure, you can devalue, but only if you flood the market with your gold at the same time, else we will make it very bad for you." I still can't really get my head around it. 

Ok that all was a little off track, but I guess I had to vent. Yes, though, I think a default would cause a melt up on the POSX. Don't get me wrong, though. I am buying PM's.

abguy4's picture

More from Nigel

More from Nigel - damn he is ALWAYS spot-on

This is slightly dated - from last year -

but it is pertinent in that he gives a sufficient  background to

the EU/ Greek affair, and you must have some basic understanding in the entire EU/UK affair

in order to understand the EU/Greek affair. OK?

Also he includes some basic background in EU Bonds -

which are central to the whole Paper Ponzi scheme~!

Root Cause Analysis will always get you back to the Bond Market,

and the bottom line is that it is as Fiat/manipulated as the PIG market and

when that is finally exposed - TSHTF.

Hondo's picture

Dr J and GSR stuff

Dr J and SGR stuff
Submitted by Hondo on February 22, 2012 - 12:01pm.
Hat Tip! 0
I agree about a forum on this GSR. I have been aware about it since I opened the "silver door" to this rabbit hole I now dwell in wearing my tin foil hat. I just never had the confinence and depth to understand the in and outs. Hat tips to the poster who has been hitting the GSR stuff a lot lately, so I don't recall your handle but thanks and keep it coming! I don't know about y'all but, I don't care to gamble on what I don't understand with my stash.

So, from what I have learned of late, I did the math on what could have been since buying my first chunck in nov 09. The GSR at the time was ballpark 62.
60 oz. Ag @ 60: 1 = 1 oz Au . The lowest I have seen since was ballpark 30:1 right before the May massacre.
60 oz. Ag @ 30:1=2 oz Au. Double the Au I could have purchased with my initial cash purchase. Missed that boat, oh the humanity!
So now GSR 51:1
2 oz Au( I didn't trade for!) would get 102 oz Ag if I chose this ratio. I would maybe wait till 55, but still that would make me 40 free oz Ag per 60 oz Ag done on original 30:1 trade, per x amount of 60 oz I traded!
That's math I like.
Question I have is the tax man. You don't have to report your metals to IRS unless you sell per my accountant. So if you have to sell to get the cash to do the swap that destroys the profit ratio. I haven't done that exact math but spitball math at 35 percent is lil over a third hit on your forty ounces and increasing your footprint if you get my drift.
Any ideas on another way? Anyon
The only option I have come up with is to find LCS to swap with. Convince them they are still getting equal value and then happily pay them their premium. Then walk away hoping they don't change their mind when it's time for the next swap.

I am getting giddy on the possibilities!

Hondo
edit: Ha ha had to copy this from last thread. Last poster sucka!
EditReply Alert Moderator

firstsilver's picture

Will patience be rewarded?

Sure, buying gold or silver right here likely will look good a year out.

But in view of all the past options manipulations beatdowns, I can't pull the trigger to add now until I see what the bad guys have in store for the next day and change. Been burned one too many times by their antics.

The way I look at it, buying gold or silver Friday will look good a year out, also. But both could be on sale at that time (Friday).

sdstacker's picture

This one is a doozy...

Fulford and Wilcock are looking more and more credible with every passing day...

Lord James of Blackheath: Mystery 15 Trillion Dollars Transferred to HSBC For Royal Bank of Scotland Connected to JP Morgan and Federal Reserve

"There are three possible conclusions which may come from it. First, there may have been a massive piece of money-laundering committed by a major Government who should know better. Effectively, it undermined the integrity of a British bank, the Royal Bank of Scotland, in doing so. The second possibility is that a major American department has an agency which has gone rogue on it because it has been wound up and has created a structure out of which it is seeking to get at least €50 billion as a pay-off. The third possibility is that this is an extraordinarily elaborate fraud, which has not been carried out, but which has been prepared to provide a threat to one Government or more if they do not make a pay-off. These three possibilities need an urgent review.

In April and May 2009, the situation started with the alleged transfer of $5 trillion to HSBC in the United Kingdom. Seven days later, another $5 trillion came to HSBC and three weeks later another $5 trillion. A total of $15 trillion is alleged to have been passed into the hands of HSBC for onward transit to the Royal Bank of Scotland. We need to look to where this came from and the history of this money. I have been trying to sort out the sequence by which this money has been created and where it has come from for a long time."

http://theintelhub.com/2012/02/19/lord-james-of-blackheath-mystery-15-trillion-dollars-transferred-to-hsbc-for-royal-bank-of-scotland-connected-to-jp-morgan-and-federal-reserve/

If you haven't read David Wilcock's 'Financial Tyranny' report, I suggest you grab a comfy seat and beverage of choice:

http://divinecosmos.com/start-here/davids-blog/1023-financial-tyranny

Mariposa de Oro's picture

Dr G

Nigel Farage for Prez?  Yes!  I hear he has a Hawaiian birth certificate too!  wink

Monedas's picture

Warren Buffet candidate for Socialist Sainthood !

He lives in a modest frame house in Omaha and eats a bowl of oatmeal every morning !   Monedas  2012  I hope he chokes on an oatmeal flake !   devil

Norrin's picture

Always looking

Thanks Turd for the charts! I don't comment much, but I check the site daily to get a sense of what's going on.

Personally, I find it difficult to convince myself to purchase large amounts of silver when the price is above it's 50-day moving average ($31.28 according to StockCharts.com). Maybe it's just the cheapskate in me.

Nevertheless, I'm heading to the local coin shop today. I found a pair of 1oz silver kookaburras last week for $40 and a pair of 1oz silver pandas for $34. Maybe 3rd time's the charm? :)

ClinkinKY's picture

FWIW

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2012/02/how-remove-your-google-search-history-googles-new-privacy-policy-takes-effect

 
 
February 21, 2012 | By Eva Galperin

How to Remove Your Google Search History Before Google's New Privacy Policy Takes Effect

On March 1st, Google will implement its new, unified privacy policy, which will affect data Google has collected on you prior to March 1st as well as data it collects on you in the future. Until now, your Google Web History (your Google searches and sites visited) was cordoned off from Google's other products. This protection was especially important because search data can reveal particularly sensitive information about you, including facts about your location, interests, age, sexual orientation, religion, health concerns, and more. If you want to keep Google from combining your Web History with the data they have gathered about you in their other products, such as YouTube or Google Plus, you may want to remove all items from your Web History and stop your Web History from being recorded in the future.

Here's how you can do that:

1. Sign into your Google account.

2. Go to https://google.com/history

3. Click "remove all Web History."

4. Click "ok."

Note that removing your Web History also pauses it. Web History will remain off until you enable it again.

If you have several Google accounts, you will need to do this for each of them.

Turd Ferguson's picture

I find it very hard to

MODERATOR

I find it very hard to believe that, once the average Greek citizen gets a load of these details, there won't be complete anarchy and political breakdown.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/scandal-greece-receive-negative-cash-second-bailout-it-funds-insolvent-european-banks

indosil's picture

Paid Subscription

Hello Turd,

              An avid follower from India..not a regular blogger but make it a pt to visit ur site everyday..consider myself too unqualified to comment on your posts....as far as paid subscription goes kindly make the online payment easy by accepting debit cards as well...i hate using credit cards..why to pay MORGUE interest..rt?

Turd Ferguson's picture

Done!

MODERATOR

Thanks for the heads up!

Response to: FWIW
Turd Ferguson's picture

Thanks

MODERATOR

I will pass that along to The Tech Team.

Response to: Paid Subscription
Turd Ferguson's picture

Silver looking weak into the close

MODERATOR

and tomorrow is March option expiry. Will we get a beatdown on the Globex this afternoon? Chances are high.

Harald's picture

Couldn't we get the high

Couldn't we get the high school kid who photoshopped BO's birth certificate to do one proving that Nigel Farage was born in the United States?

indosil's picture

Thanx Turd

thanks a lot turd....ur the man...

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