Even More Charts

No sense dillydallying. Let's get right to it.

Let's start off-topic a bit; I just have to give you an updated ES chart. Again, the ES is the mini S&P 500 futures contract. It is the functional equivalent of stock trading for maniacal futures traders, such as myself. What is so comical (and sickening) about this chart is the consistency of it. Not only does the chart continue rising at a perfect 45-degree angle, there are so very few DOWN days. In fact, there's a stretch of days in early January where the ES rose 14 out if 15 days! This is a nearly impossible occurrence in a non-manipulated market. Then, after 4 consecutive down days in late January, the ES has risen 10 out of 14 trading days this month.

paper_2-21pmes.jpg

But I'll admit...maybe I'm just crazy. Maybe the stock market is completely free and fair and prices are rising because of such fundamental things as actual earnings and projected earnings. If that's the case, we must be in a low-inflation, happy-consumer, increasing-margin Wonderland! Uhhhhhhh, maybe not. See below:

paper_2-21pmcrude4.jpgpaper_2-21pmcrudew.jpg

The obvious question regarding the metals is now: What happens next? Today's open interest numbers (basis Friday) look OK and the 1-month silver lease rate I'm so worried about has backed off to -0.35%. Let's see what happens in the next 24-48 hours. Will gold fail again at 1760-65? Will silver fail again at 34.40?

paper_2-21pmgold4.jpgpaper_2-21pmsilv4.jpg

Since there was an absence of coordinated, Cartel raids today, we have to expect a beatdown overnight, likely beginning at the appointed hour of 3:00 am EST when London opens. Whether or not we get a solid FULBMA on the Comex tomorrow will go a long way toward determining whether or not this present attempt to overtake 1750 and 34 will be successful. And I hope we are successful. Frankly, I'm sick and tired of fighting this preliminary battle. (I suppose that that is exactly how the Cartels want me to feel.) 1750 and 34 are just the warmups. They are the PM equivalents of August, NFL exhibition football. The real battles begin when gold reaches 1800 and silver reaches 35.50. These are The Battles Royale. Beyond those levels lay new alltime highs in gold and $40+ silver, therefore, they will be vigorously defended.

paper_2-21pmgoldw.jpgpaper_2-21pmsilvw.jpg

That's it. That's all I've got. I hope that all of you were richly rewarded by the action in the metals today and that my current obsession with the CoT and lease rates didn't keep you from participating. Personally, I had an order in on Friday to buy an April $1750 gold call at 23. It only fell to 24 and I never got filled. Rats. I haven't had the time nor inclination to check the price today to see how much fiat I didn't make. Oh well, whaddayagonnado? Have a great overnight and let's see where everything goes tomorrow.

TF

181 Comments

Be Prepared's picture

@boatman - Let's put this interview

with Ron Hera out for everyone to view...  thanks for finding this interview!

agrock's picture

Greek 1 Year Hits 763%

If it seems like it was only 5 days ago that Greek bonds could be had for the blockbuster yield of 638%, it is because it was As of today, the same bond was yielding an even more ridiculous 763% (and remember when the MSM fluffers were telling you to buy these at the bargain basement yield of 100% in September 2011?). 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-1-year-hits-763

stained white shirt's picture

Former CIA Revolutionary Guard Insider

Former Islamic Insider Offers Warning

They believe that God has promised them victory. “These people have a very narrow worldview,” he added. “The Ayatollah believes there should be blood until the end of the world, or God will not be satisfied. You see, the center of the Islamic ideology is justice. When the Mahdi comes, he will kill all infidels. This is their justice.”

If they exploded one nuclear bomb on the Saudi oil fields, it would shut down all production because the oil would have been [radioactively] contaminated. Given our dependence on oil, the resulting calamity would be one of the worst in all history.” This result, explained Khalili, would make the whole world grieve. But the clerics would rejoice. War and disaster are nothing to them. If an unbeliever dies, praise be to Allah the blessed and merciful. If a believer dies it is also an occasion for self-satisfaction.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jr-nyquist/former-islamic-insider-offers-warning

recaptureamerica's picture

Doc, happy now? Sheessh..

Doc, happy now? Sheessh.. They don't need tempting..they do enough on their own. :)

lairdwd's picture

Back to the 3 AM and 8:20 beatdowns

Well, yesterday was fun while it lasted. LOL! Looks like they want to push it lower for opEx. All the way back to 1740 would be a gift, and 1720 on some major news announcement would be an early xmas. 

In other news, platinum closes the gap with gold to $58 spot

Groaner's picture

got out of silver last night

I am surprised though, they did not hit that hard.. however they gave it another nudge at the comex open.

I think that sets the tone for the day

zilverreiger's picture

@teach

dec 2011 headline for the china news

zilverreiger's picture

@stained white shirt

so what americans think they are gods chosen people too, and they will us WMD

lairdwd's picture

platinum and palladium green, gold and silver red

Sigh, this is getting old. Seems like the other two are where the party is at and the cartel is letting the speculative froth develop. 

I should have dipped my toes in the water on the physical platinum and palladium etf's . Too late now? Probably not, but I'll hold off anyway. 

Teach's picture

News

Missed the date..thanks!  :-)

FriedEggs's picture

War is good for debt

No people - no debt.

Don't have to pay for something/someone - if they no longer exist.

.

And here i am - being a good lil conformist and a good citizen to society...trying to save a bit of coin. For what - my life is a f**kin lie. We have been hijacked...hell on earth indeed. Mind you, im one of the most pessimistic on this site - so it gets better from this opinion.

In a nut shell - we are screwed for a while.

We are dealing with psychopaths - they dont give a f**k about you or me...

And they just didn't infiltrate the system yesterday or 5 elections ago.

They were here from the beginning - this didnt happen overnight - these 'people' are SMART. Very smart, very talented, rich, intelligent, connected, organized and have dark forces working in they're favour  - So, how do we compete battle that? If the smartest of the smarts took this long to get to this point

What are the woolliest of the sheep going to do... graze at them?

.

Fried(e)...making the stand

stained white shirt's picture

@zilverreiger

Is it government propaganda? That is for each of us to decide. I personally think it is propaganda. If you read the article it actually says that the US and the west had their chance to help the people of Iran a few years back to overthrow the Mullahs but our leaders chose to do nothing. Why does the west not help remove the mullahs peacefully but are all for war to remove them. Deception! 

boatman's picture

COWARDICE

is why obozo didn't say sh*t when the mullahs were shooting down their people in the street.

boatman's picture

@Be Pe

yes....thanks....sometimes i can't get the imbed to work.

mahalo.

ClinkinKY's picture

@ stained white shirt

Why does the west not help remove the mullahs peacefully but are all for war to remove them.

How does the "West"remove the mullahs peacefully? I'm not advocating doing it by forceful means, but am asking a sincere question. Just how do you do it "peacefully"?

ClinkinKY's picture

@ zilverreiger

so what americans think they are gods chosen people too, and they will us WMD

I assume this is an allusion to the Israelis being "God's chosen people"? Of course the Islamists never bring God/Allah into the equation, do they?

How much longer zilverreiger, before we see you signing off "Allah Akbar, Death to the Great Satan"?

Turd Ferguson's picture

The ignore user button

MODERATOR

has been conveniently placed on each comment. Use it if you need it.

ClinkinKY's picture

@ Turd--Sincere question

Isn't silence implied consent?

zilverreiger's picture

"Isn't silence implied

"Isn't silence implied consent?"

exactly why I will keep confronting your nonsense

ClinkinKY's picture

It goes both ways pal

Now would you answer my question as to why you never refer to Islamists referrals to the "will of Allah"?

My last post on the subject because I'm sure it's boring other people here.

The8thHabit's picture

RE: ClinkinKY

I personally don't think that silence implies consent. Quite opposite, engaging in a serious discussion with someone implies legitimacy to the argument you oppose to.

Colonel Angus's picture

Are they sucking in more longs....

...just to have a true beatdown after hours tonight before opsex tomorrow? OR maybe they will hit it at 3am, 8:30, and again at London PM fixing...equal opportunity. I have some dry powder, just in case.

zilverreiger's picture

@Sturdy Fergusov

sounds alot like that "lefty moral superiority" we hear about here so often

DragonFly's picture

Ok with War

I don't hate war, I hate hypocrisy.

If another country has something we need(food for our kids) and won't trade for it then I have no problem taking it by force to feed my family.

In America the president should convince congress that war is the best option, AND CONGRESS SHOULD DECLARE WAR. Then the people should hold congress responsible. I'm ok with war on those terms.

Trying to describe how america works today in an internet post if futile.  I will only say its not based on the constitution. I have become  a cynic when it comes to believing anything our government has to say.

I am a veteran of the first gulf war and took the oath to defend the constitution. I guess I assumed my superiors understood the constitution and followed the same oath. I was wrong.

Dr Jerome's picture

Can we talk about metals?

I like to follow the war rhetoric, but debating the ethics, politics, and religion of it is somewhat pointless and I hate to see members edging toward flaming posts.... Let me know when they (Americans, Israelis, Iranians, etc) start shooting. 

Even with the choppy trading, I still don't think AU & AG have been hit very hard. Not that I want it to be slammed down, though I'll buy if it happens.

I am also very interested in this GSR ratio trade we have been discussing. The attractive advantage I see is that you stay in metals the whole time. Could we set up a Forum  and re-post some of the good advice that has been offered?

stained white shirt's picture

ClinkinKY

I will correct my post for you.  There may have been civil war in Iran rather than world war III. Then again the mullahs may have just fleed the country and a new government installed without a shot fired. We will never know.  Enough said.

From the article:

Readers may remember that in 2009 the Islamic regime was ready to fall, with protests growing stronger by the day. This was a perfect moment to act, noted Kahlili, but the Western world did nothing to support the Iranian people against their oppressors. “Intelligence showed the [Islamic] leaders were ready to flee,” Kahlili said. “The security forces could not contain the protests. The Revolutionary Guard was demoralized. From the West, however, there was silence. You see how it was – a losing game for Iranian dissidents and backers of the West.”

The8thHabit's picture

@ zilverreiger

Not sure if my comment could be interpreted as a "lefty moral superiority" since I am neither "lefty" nor extremely (at least in the view of some judgmental people) "moral" nor exhibit any "superiority" (my last name does end with "...ov" but we should not just people by the last name, should we? - sarc)...

I just gave my two cents on philosophical question ClinkinKY asked WITHOUT engaging in the discussion you and him were having, certainly not taking side or throwing punches. 

ClinkinKY's picture

@ stained white shirt

And if you've seen any of my posts/cartoons expressing my "admiration" of our current CIC (Campaigner-in-Chief) you'll see that I'm in complete agreement with you on this point:)

BUDDHA PRINCESS's picture

Gold at Risk as Dollar Recovers,

Gold at Risk as Dollar Recovers, Crude Oil Supported by Iran Tensions By Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • Crude Oil Likely to Remain Well-Supported on Iran-Linked Tensions
  • Gold, Silver Buoyed by Inflation Bets But US Dollar Gains May Weigh
  • Copper Vulnerable as S&P 500 Futures Point Toward Risk Aversion

Tensions between Western powers and Iran continue to push crude oil prices higher, with the WTI contract touching the highest since May 2011 yesterday. Scanning recent developments, the situation remains volatile. While Tehran has at least delayed (if not cancelled) planned military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz initially slated for this week, it is conducting another set of war games meant to prepare to counter “all possible threats, especially to public, important and nuclear centers,” according to private intelligence firm Stratfor. The exercises are reportedly focusing on surface-to-air missile systems, anti-aircraft artillery, radar systems and warplanes.

This kind of display suggests Iran may be starting to legitimately expect an attack on its nuclear facilities in the near term and could be brandishing an appearance of readiness as a deterrent. While it’s next to impossible to meaningfully predict where the situation will go from here, it seems highly unlikely that tensions will be unwound quickly, meaning a significant geopolitical risk premium will continue to amplify crude prices for some time.

Gold and silver rose sharply yesterday as 3-year US inflation expectations (measured by “breakeven rates”, which are the difference between yields on nominal and inflation-adjusted Treasury bonds) rose to the highest in 9 months, stoking store-of-value demand for precious metals. The outlook for price growth in 3 years – significant because it marks the conclusion of the Fed’s stated period when rates will be held “exceptionally low” – has been marching steadily higher recently.

The move likely reflects US economic data’s broad tendency to surprise higher relative to expectations since October, hinting an accelerating recovery against a backdrop of ultra-loose monetary policy will let loose inflationary pressure. More of the same may be on tap today with US Existing Home Sales expected to print at a 20-month high in January. A stronger US Dollar may act as an offsetting factor however. The greenback rose in European trade as Eurozone PMI figures disappointed, weighing on risk appetite and stocking safe-haven demand for the benchmark currency. S&P 500 stock index futures are trading lower ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, arguing for more of the same ahead.

Copper also shot higher yesterday after a deal on the second Greek bailout removed the uncertainty that prevented prices from fully capitalizing on a Chinese interest rate cut announced in the previous day. China is the world’s largest copper consumer, so an easing of monetary conditions there that may boost economic activity naturally bodes well for the cycle-sensitive metal. Headwinds from Eurozone PMI figures are being felt today however, and the weakness in US stock futures ahead of the opening bell suggests that will continue into North American trade.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $105.84 // +2.60 // +2.52%

Prices broke resistance at 105.61, the 123.6% Fibonacci extension, with the door now open to challenge the 138.2% level at 106.81. The 105.61 level has been recast as near-term support, with a reversal back below that exposing 103.66 once again.

Gold_at_Risk_as_Dollar_Recovers_Crude_Oil_Supported_by_Iran_Tensions_body_Picture_3.png, Gold at Risk as Dollar Recovers, Crude Oil Supported by Iran Tensions

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1759.13 // +24.18 // +1.39%

Prices pushed higher after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support 1714.60, with buyers once again testing resistance at 1763.00. A break above this boundary exposes the November 8 high at 1802.80.

Gold_at_Risk_as_Dollar_Recovers_Crude_Oil_Supported_by_Iran_Tensions_body_Picture_4.png, Gold at Risk as Dollar Recovers, Crude Oil Supported by Iran Tensions

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Spot Silver (NY Close): $34.31 // +0.73 // +2.17%

Prices are testing range resistance at 34.37, the February 2 swing high, with a break higher exposing the October 28 closing high at 35.30. Support remains at 32.60, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern completed against a backdrop of negative RSI divergence on February 3 continues to suggest the path of least resistance favors the downside, with a daily close above 34.37 needed to invalidate.

Gold_at_Risk_as_Dollar_Recovers_Crude_Oil_Supported_by_Iran_Tensions_body_Picture_5.png, Gold at Risk as Dollar Recovers, Crude Oil Supported by Iran Tensions

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

 
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