Even More Charts

No sense dillydallying. Let's get right to it.

Let's start off-topic a bit; I just have to give you an updated ES chart. Again, the ES is the mini S&P 500 futures contract. It is the functional equivalent of stock trading for maniacal futures traders, such as myself. What is so comical (and sickening) about this chart is the consistency of it. Not only does the chart continue rising at a perfect 45-degree angle, there are so very few DOWN days. In fact, there's a stretch of days in early January where the ES rose 14 out if 15 days! This is a nearly impossible occurrence in a non-manipulated market. Then, after 4 consecutive down days in late January, the ES has risen 10 out of 14 trading days this month.

paper_2-21pmes.jpg

But I'll admit...maybe I'm just crazy. Maybe the stock market is completely free and fair and prices are rising because of such fundamental things as actual earnings and projected earnings. If that's the case, we must be in a low-inflation, happy-consumer, increasing-margin Wonderland! Uhhhhhhh, maybe not. See below:

paper_2-21pmcrude4.jpgpaper_2-21pmcrudew.jpg

The obvious question regarding the metals is now: What happens next? Today's open interest numbers (basis Friday) look OK and the 1-month silver lease rate I'm so worried about has backed off to -0.35%. Let's see what happens in the next 24-48 hours. Will gold fail again at 1760-65? Will silver fail again at 34.40?

paper_2-21pmgold4.jpgpaper_2-21pmsilv4.jpg

Since there was an absence of coordinated, Cartel raids today, we have to expect a beatdown overnight, likely beginning at the appointed hour of 3:00 am EST when London opens. Whether or not we get a solid FULBMA on the Comex tomorrow will go a long way toward determining whether or not this present attempt to overtake 1750 and 34 will be successful. And I hope we are successful. Frankly, I'm sick and tired of fighting this preliminary battle. (I suppose that that is exactly how the Cartels want me to feel.) 1750 and 34 are just the warmups. They are the PM equivalents of August, NFL exhibition football. The real battles begin when gold reaches 1800 and silver reaches 35.50. These are The Battles Royale. Beyond those levels lay new alltime highs in gold and $40+ silver, therefore, they will be vigorously defended.

paper_2-21pmgoldw.jpgpaper_2-21pmsilvw.jpg

That's it. That's all I've got. I hope that all of you were richly rewarded by the action in the metals today and that my current obsession with the CoT and lease rates didn't keep you from participating. Personally, I had an order in on Friday to buy an April $1750 gold call at 23. It only fell to 24 and I never got filled. Rats. I haven't had the time nor inclination to check the price today to see how much fiat I didn't make. Oh well, whaddayagonnado? Have a great overnight and let's see where everything goes tomorrow.

TF

181 Comments

Hold over's picture

Iran

Obama’s State Department is giving away seven strategic, resource-laden Alaskan islands to the Russians. Yes, to the Putin regime in the Kremlin. … The seven endangered islands in the Arctic Ocean and Bering Sea include one the size of Rhode Island and Delaware combined. The Russians are also to get the tens of thousands of square miles of oil-rich seabeds surrounding the islands. The Department of Interior estimates billions of barrels of oil are at stake.http://times247.com/articles/obama-must-stop-alaskan-islands-giveaway
 

Obama’s State Department is giving away seven strategic, resource-laden Alaskan islands to the Russians. Yes, to the Putin regime in the Kremlin. … The seven endangered islands in the Arctic Ocean and Bering Sea include one the size of Rhode Island and Delaware combined. The Russians are also to get the tens of thousands of square miles of oil-rich seabeds surrounding the islandshttp://www.worldnewstribune.com/2012/02/20/obama-state-department-set-to-cede-oil-rich-alaska-islands-to-russia/

 

Dont kid yourself, they aint ""giving"" away anything. They traded ""something"" for it. Most likely , a Russian green light on Iran.

Notice they dont say what the US got in return? Like they just gave it to the Russians out of the goodness of their hearts. Laughing

I dont know what the Russians offered in return,But It sure as hell aint rubles, and whatever it is, has to be awefully big for the US to concede oil rich ,strategic territory .

The war with Iran has begun some time ago, It just hasn't went hot yet. Its a done deal. 

France 24-  15/02/2012 

 Iran unveiled on state TV its first domestically-made nuclear fuel for its Tehran reactor and that it has added 3,000 more centrifuges to its uranium enrichment effort, in a defiant response to Western sanctions against its nuclear program.

http://www.france24.com/en/20120215-defiant-iran-domestic-nuclear-fuel-sanctions-eu-un?ns_mchannel=SEM&ns_source=Google&ns_campaign=France%2024%20US_Middle%20East&ns_linkname=Iran%20-%20Nuclear_uranium%20iran&ns_fee=0&gclid=CJSggdfisK4CFQIRNAodyG5FQw

This is/was, the line in the sand for an Israeli  attack as outlined by Israel.

I would like to hears the Turds speculation of PMs when this does occur. 

Gold didn't spike much in 2003 attack on Iraq,until  about a year later. I was interested on the possible effects of the dollar, gold, silver, in the event of an attack , which will probably happen  within 1  year. I wont hold hold your feet to the fire on this , just war gameing  it out.

 

Hold over's picture

Everything man makes is

Everything man makes is subject to destruction , Gold is not

-me

ReachWest's picture

Increased Negativity (Is it just me?)

Rumblings out of MENA seem to be coming faster and hotter over the past 48-72 hours. My intuition says we're headed into something dramatic and nasty - and soon. I do hope I'm reading it wrong - my intuition doesn't have a particularly good track record, so maybe.

At times I wish I was as naive as the majority of the people I have daily contact with - they're happily oblivious to the economy and the reality of where we're heading. It drives a person nuts after a while.

In the middle of all this - some dude I know is hand-wringing about CO2 emissions and Global Warming - good gosh - get a grip. I don't care about a little excess CO2 in my Oil - as long as I have Oil to burn and use - and - frankly that's what this may all come down to.  (I've come to believe that it's all about Oil - without it, we barely exist.)

Sorry for the rant out of the blue - I'm really hoping what I'm feeling is just my diet playing with my chemistry - I've been trying to cut out excess carbs and calories of late. smiley

Louie's picture

What do the Iranian citizens know?

Two important things to not forget when considering Iran.  Number one, the vast majority of Iranians hate the Mullahs and want regime change.  I meet and interact with Iranians on a weekly basis.  I have a couple of pretty close Iranian friends, and I have been to Iran several times.  The problem is that they are unarmed (Hat tip to the Second Amendment for the US) and anytime someone starts taking a leadership role in organizing resistance they are killed. 

Second, do not underestimate the Jewish influence in US foreign policy decisions, especially in this election year.  If President Obama is to be re-elected, he has to win New York.  If he can also win Florida (and assuming that he will win California) that assures his re-election.  President Obama knows he stepped in a Turd when he called for the return to the 1964 borders, and he will now do anything to show that he is a strong supporter of Israel.  President Obama needs the Jewish campaign contributions, and he needs to win the Jewish vote in Florida to win re-election.   The US will attack Iran, or will lend logistical support to an Israeli attack.  It will happen early enough to convince Jewish donors that President Obama is a friend to Israel, so that the money can be used during the Fall election cycle.

silvermedusa's picture

Two obtuse nighttime thoughts

I really hate war.  It sucks.  As the saying goes, what if we had a war and no one showed up?

1.  No doubt, this is WWIII, if all these crazy psychopaths (on all sides) don't all calm down.  A draft would need to be instated for this war.  Sooooo, what if those "FEMA camps" are really for the draft dodgers?  Which, I am sure, there will be many, if not outright civil war.  That thought made the hair on the back of my neck stand up.

2.  What if, all those drones the governments are starting to fly all over the U.S. to "monitor" us plebes, what if the Iranians can hack those to attack ourselves and not even have to set foot on our hemisphere?  I can think of many ways we could be royally screwed, besides the obvious blocking Hormuz and cutting off oil thing.

Just random stoner musings of current events. surprise

Louie's picture

How long until CME hikes margins on oil?

The Obama administration cannot afford to be blamed for $4.00 (or $5.00) per gallon gasoline heading into the election cycle.  How long before the CME hikes margin requirements on crude in order to drive out those evil speculators? 

My bet is that the margins are hiked in conjunction with the Iranian attack, which will also coincide with an additional release of strategic reserves.  Careful how you play oil.  

Norrin's picture

@Stardust re: Getting Ready

I totally agree.

I have intelligent friends who simply roll their eyes when I start talking about where our nation may be heading and how they should consider allocating some of their savings into gold and silver. I believe that some folks have been too well brainwashed. While I give my help freely, I no longer try to bring up the subject.

On a separate note, I was able to pick up a pair of 1oz 1989 silver pandas for $34 at a local coin store last week. (Current price on Apmex is $89) The dealer was upset that they had been wrongly placed in the junk silver pile but he honored the price. Hopefully, there's a chance to increase my small stack before the price of silver goes up again. :)

NW VIEW's picture

IT LOOKS LIKE ALL WE NEED IS PEACE

Wow, do we have world problems these days.  That small country Israel, seems to be the focus from all sides.  I do not see that they are deserving of so much attention but "It is Written" and it is just the way it has to be.  There have been several attempts to bring peace to the region for two thousand years and many times  from the Carter era and the continual work of President B.O.   The area is a fuse that has already been lit but out of the destruction of the region a world ruler will arise that will sign a peace treaty between Israel and the surrounding nations.  The man who hammers out that  treaty will be an interesting person to watch.  Those days are coming.   The signing of that treaty on a Rosh HaShanah would also be a major signpost.  jmo

vivekmert5's picture

FUTURE EXPECTATION GOLD CHART

GOLD

http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2012/February/Daily/22GOL8HD.gif

http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2012/February/Daily/22GoldProjectiond.gif

http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2012/February/Daily/22GLDWKLYD.gif

http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2012/February/Silver/22SLV4HRS.gif

http://www.goldtrends.net/Resources/Pictures/2012/February/Silver/22SILDS.gif

http://static.safehaven.com/authors/handwerger/24450.png\

http://static.safehaven.com/authors/vermeulen/24452_d.png

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2012/Feb/stock-market-forecast-2012.gif

Bohemian's picture

@Hold over

"Obama’s State Department is giving away seven strategic, resource-laden Alaskan islands to the Russians. Yes, to the Putin regime in the Kremlin. … Notice they dont say what the US got in return? Like they just gave it to the Russians out of the goodness of their hearts. Laughing"

Actually, that's a good news. If you look at the map, we are (not) giving them these islands, but at the same time drawing a line giving us a broader access to Arctic. Here's what's going on:

"As Russia’s core oil fields in Eastern Siberia are depleted, companies are looking north. The government hopes that up to 80 million tons of oil will be produced annually in the Arctic by 2030. Russia is trying to assert jurisdiction over parts of the Arctic, which is believed to hold up to a quarter of the Earth’s undiscovered oil and gas. By speeding up the Arctic oil project, the government is strengthening its bid."

1) August 24, 2011 -- Kremlin green lights Siberia-Alaska tunnel --

"Yes, that 65-mile tunnel under the Bering Strait separating Siberia and Alaska, first proposed in 2007, is back on again. And this time its chances of actually being built are strengthened by a 500-mile link from the existing Trans-Siberian line to the Eastern Siberian city of Yakutsk, scheduled for completion in 2013. The tunnel – twice the length of the English Channel–spanning Chunnel – was given the green light this week at a conference attended by delegates from Russia, the US, UK, and China, held in that very town of 200,000, fondly known as "The Coldest City on Earth".

2) August 30, 2011 - Exxon Reaches Arctic Oil Deal With Russians

Exxon Mobil won a coveted prize in the global petroleum industry Tuesday with an agreement to explore for oil in a Russian portion of the Arctic Ocean that is being opened for drilling even as Alaskan waters remain mostly off limits.

In announcing the arrangement at a surprise signing in the Russian resort town of Sochi, Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin described a sweeping global alliance — and a potentially vast investment by Exxon in the Russian Arctic.

“The scale of the investment is very large,” Mr. Putin said. “It’s scary to utter such huge figures.”

But while Russian news agencies said Mr. Putin had stated the potential investments by both companies to be as high as $500 billion, Exxon officials said the figures, at least initially, would more likely be in the tens of billions of dollars.

Despite the varying accounts of the overall potential value of the agreement, a fact sheet released by the companies indicated an initial commitment to invest $3.2 billion in exploration in the Kara Sea, the body of water between the northern coast of European Russia and the Novaya Zemlya island chain.

Once seen as a useless, ice-clogged backwater, the Kara Sea now has the attention of oil companies. That is partly because the sea ice is apparently receding — In the waters off Alaska, drilling has remained largely off limits because of environmental restrictions and lawsuits by conservation organizations.

[Well, that's another way around it, to drill just next-door in Russia, after giving them these island back, right?]

----

I don't think there will be WWIII... We can't [and Israel will not] attack Iran or Syria without dealing with Russians behind doors. Russians have 0.5 mil Russian Jews in Israel. I translated one article here in August, from Pravda.ru. See my next post  --

Sean Connery's picture

3am raid

right on schedule.

Sean Connery's picture

found support

at $34. will it hold?

sniem's picture

There's No Tomorrow - from the Post Carbon Institute

For a summary of the World's challenges - fiat money, perpetual growth, population growth, peak oil, environment, etc., this is a very good concise 30 minutes video you can attempt to show to friends and relatives who are still in denial.

Be Prepared's picture

OBummer - Trying to think himself out of a can

Be Prepared's picture

It's in all the Theaters

Be Prepared's picture

I guess OBummer really does need a New Slogan!

cz0840's picture

3AM knock-down, right on queue

Turd,

It looks like the cartel can't even make the metal markets look legitimate anymore because they are so desperate. I hope they can keep this up for awhile longer as I need to do some more stacking and buy some more preps as well  :  )

zilverreiger's picture

netdania

netdania is having some outages for me today, brent data and usdx and dax are unavailable intermittently

ClinkinKY's picture

Morning Toons

Posted Image

ClinkinKY's picture

Wait...

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ClinkinKY's picture

And finally...

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junoroland's picture

oil price

i see a few comments wondering if they will margin hike oil giving its current price. have they ever hiked the margin in oil? probably more likely they will release some of the strategic reserves. that worked out well last time.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Yes, it sure seems that way

MODERATOR

to your point:

http://news.yahoo.com/un-nuke-expert-no-way-forward-iran-094401844.html

and: (Note that the facility the UN dudes were denied access to is purportedly where Iran tests nuke triggers.)

http://www.debka.com/article/21760/

and this, too: (This should turn the "journalists" against Syria)

http://news.yahoo.com/battle-homs-war-reporting-legend-marie-colvin-killed-101000067.html

boatman's picture

THE END OF CHEAP EVERYTHING

Dr Jerome's picture

Something doesn't smell right

Is that all the cartel has? AU down to 1753, AG down to 34? Are they just luring in a few more overconfident longs only to release the trap door? I feel like Theoden facing the army of Isengard at Helm's Deep. Surely, there is a trick up their sleeve. No?

I'm good either way. Whether up or down I'll buy more. Where else am I going to put my fiat? Savings account? IRA contribution like my employer encourages everyone to do? Really! They suggested I double up to make up for losses since 2008 so I can retire. 

I am so thankful that my wife is on the same page with me in our prepping journey. In fact, she encouraged me to start reading the book!

Turd Ferguson's picture

Doc, give it a few hours

MODERATOR

Soon, a dollar-popping headline will be released that mentions the (very real) possibility of the Greek deal unraveling.

sixdollarsilver's picture

yep probably

or maybe this

zilverreiger's picture

iran is now being blamed for the high gas prices

in the MSM, don't fall for it, don't support the war.

It's a direct trade war consequence initiated by our own leaders.

Be Prepared's picture

The Looming Next Story

Dr. J & Turd....  They are constantly on the hunt for a way to churn this market up and down so they can maximize the position they've taken to profit from the slosh.  They are like a 5-year in a tub moving their arms in and out of the water trying to time it for the biggest effect.  The looming next story, as we all know, is contrived to be drivel.

The only thing that seems to be for certain is that they will keep playing this game until they lose control of the play or someone forgets that its supposed to be a game.  It's all fun and games until someone gets their eye poked....  :-)

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