Who knows man. I think this is a bunch of bull. Who would buy? It makes no sense.
Silvercorp Metals, Inc. (SVM) - Aggressive Growth Profile
June 30, 2011 - 1:07am
#83
Who knows man. I think this
June 30, 2011 - 1:11am
#84
Market Cap of Major Miners is Tiny
June 30, 2011 - 1:14am
#85
counter arg against AG or AU confiscation in North America
1. There is too much Au and Ag in private hands that would escape confiscation.
2. There is also no reason for the government to attempt confiscation when privately held Ag and Au is helpful to the US economy vs the rest of the planet.
3. There is every reason to help US citizens to "hide" bullion in the population and away from international inventory.
China already knows this.
That's why the PRC are no longer erecting barriers to entry of gold and silver to Chinese territory. That is also, incidentally, why they are probably also injecting Chinese controls on international miners.
June 30, 2011 - 1:28am
#86
DXY vs. USD Gold price
I used netdania to plot a curve for the past 2 years for the weekly DXY valuation (right Y-axis) and the value of one troy ounce of gold in Federal Reserve Notes.
Notice that 2009's June DXY broke to the downside in the second week of July with a corresponding blue candlestick in the first week of August. The up-trend in Au pricing lags by about 6 weeks (last week of August).
In 2010, the DXY broke down harder from June and July 2010 with a corresponding up-trend in Au pricing lagging by another 6 weeks from the blue candlestick in early August.
As I stated a few days ago... oh thank heaven for 7-11
June 30, 2011 - 1:39am
#87
Strongsidejedi wrote: Confiscation
1. There is too much Au and Ag in private hands that would escape confiscation.
How is this different than 1933?
2. There is also no reason for the government to attempt confiscation when privately held Ag and Au is helpful to the US economy vs the rest of the planet.
How is this different than 1933?
3. There is every reason to help US citizens to "hide" bullion in the population and away from international inventory.
How is this different than 1933?
Again, I don't think the US will try to confiscate again. But the generic reasons you give can be applied to China as well.
Also, you make it sound like the US population is sitting on hoards of gold and silver. Less than 1% of the population owns physical. Ask your friends and family if they are buying physical. Most likely they will laugh at you.
June 30, 2011 - 6:02am
#88
SVM
@TheGoodDoctor, did you see the article yesterday on Seeking Alpha, seems like speculation,but he mentions them as possible takeover target. Best.
June 30, 2011 - 11:46am
#89
I held off
I held off on buying last week to pay a few bills and now it's taking off.. I wonder if I'll be able to get in under 9 any time soon?
June 30, 2011 - 6:14pm
#90
maravich44 Yeah I saw that
maravich44 Yeah I saw that article. I just don't see it. I think they would be trying to make it hard to take over. We'll see.
June 30, 2011 - 6:19pm
#91
@TickyTembo Tee Hee! That is
@TickyTembo Tee Hee! That is awesome dude! Where did you come up with that? 
June 30, 2011 - 7:49pm
#92
GSD
@TickyTembo Tee Hee! That is awesome dude! Where did you come up with that?
GSD. Great site to supplement Turd's.
June 30, 2011 - 7:54pm
#93
Insane Price Targets lol
"The company is trading significantly below analysts' estimates. SVM has a median price target of $66 by 15 brokers and a high target of $77."
I thought I was bullish on SVM. Sheesh.
June 30, 2011 - 8:04pm
#94
Damn! Back up the truck!
Damn! Back up the truck! 
July 1, 2011 - 4:12am
#95
Ticky Tembo wrote:
Your
Your source is: "conspiracy theory" of "friends in China". That alone is sufficient to debunk the theory. But it's a topic worthy of discussion.
It's traditionally been difficult to get reliable information about China and it's policies. They have long been the source of much criticism regarding people's rights. Whether it's true or not I'm really not sure but the fact that some of their own people have this fear makes me wonder. If you're confident their government is trustworthy, I hope you're right.
Your friends posit a bizarre theory. They think China is pushing silver to its citizens from state owned banks so that the government can later implement an elaborate scheme to confiscate those metals back into state owned banks? The conspiracy defies logic.
Are you really serious? You really seem to know how the selling->buying<-selling thing works :/ Good to know you've done your DD on SVM and the political and economic realities of China.
July 1, 2011 - 12:49pm
#96
Well in response to that,
Well in response to that, what do you guys think about 2013 SVM Leap calls?
July 1, 2011 - 2:45pm
#97
I admittedly know nothing on
I admittedly know nothing on put/call options. I wish I was smarter in that way. I understand their benefits. I just don't have a lot of money to risk right now. Perhaps in the future. LOL.
July 1, 2011 - 3:01pm
#98
@ Sterling
Well in response to that, what do you guys think about 2013 SVM Leap calls?
I'm on the same boat as theGoodDoctor in that I don't know much about options - only the basics, but I am looking to open an options account in the near future (actually, I don't know much about anything ;P).
Have a look at the SVM options table from google finance for Jan 19th 2013 expiration:
| Strike | Price | Change | Bid | Ask | Volume | Open Int |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.00 | 4.90 | 0.00 | 4.40 | 4.90 | - | 148 |
| 8.00 | 2.90 | -0.30 | 2.80 | 3.10 | 4 | 233 |
| 10.00 | 2.25 | -0.20 | 2.15 | 2.35 | 14 | 2127 |
| 13.00 | 1.55 | +0.02 | 1.35 | 1.55 | 12 | 699 |
| 15.00 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.20 | - | 758 |
| 17.00 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 0.95 | - | 318 |
| 20.00 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.75 | - | 450 |
The bid/ask spread too high imo, which seems to be the case for any illiquid options. What are people's thoughts?
If / when I get an options account, I'd be more inclined to trade more liquid contracts with a lower bid/ask spread (but not paper silver like SLV lol).
Edit: @GoodDoctor: We know options have more volatility and leverage, but is that really more "risk"? You can make an argument for yes, but it can reduce the money you're risking too. If an SVM Jan 2013 call contract costs you $225 before commission fees, then that's all the money you can lose yes?
July 1, 2011 - 3:38pm
#99
Options are definitely
Options are definitely riskier because they are a "wasting" asset due to time decay (theta). The farther out the expiry, the less effect theta has on the option price. The movement of the underlying stock gives them a tremendous amount of leverage and big jumps in price movement and volatility increase the option price as well.
Say if you want to buy the $17 Jan 13 call for $0.95 premium (based on the ask in chart above) the stock would have to close on expiration date at $17.95 in order for you to break even (not including commission and fees). It's 52-week high is $16 and some change. You have 567 days from today to get to $17.95. Of course you don't have to wait that long. You can buy and sell/trade the premium. Say if you bought the call at $0.95 and then the price of SVM quickly jumps up to let's say $12 (my math is pulled out of my ass and is just for example purposes only and is not based on any options pricing model) and the call premium is now $1.90, you can sell the call for double of what you paid for it. If you had bought the stock at $9 and some change and sold it at $12, you would only have approximately a 30% gain. Now imagine it gets to $20 the month before expiration - it has $3 worth of intrinsic value (plus a little bit of time value, but let's leave that out for a little bit simpler math). You can sell the call again for $3 (plus whatever time value remains) and this would be a bit more than triple what you paid for it. But if you bought the stock for $9 and sold it at $20, you'd have a little more than a double.
The absolute most you can lose is the premium you paid for the call.
July 1, 2011 - 3:40pm
#100
@JoeyJoeJoe
I have no doubt
@JoeyJoeJoe
I have no doubt that what you are saying is true about less risk. But then it is merely like buy a lottery ticket (though with maybe better odds). My thought on puts or calls is this: You spend a little money up front to bet on a future price be it up or down. Both give you opportunities to buy at a more suitable price to you.
Now folks I am going by memory here and I certainly can be wrong I am just asking if I have this correct. Never bought a put or call option. In the learning phase. Hell, I don't even know what you can buy options on. I know shares, and I assume ETF's. And I don't know what the bid/ask spread means for options. Is it just like stocks?
For a call, that gives you the option of buying at the current price now if you think it will run up in the future. Then you can sell that option if you wish or buy the shares you want at the cheaper price instead of the higher price.
For a put, if you think something will be going down, you can buy a put, sell that option and still get the better price on the shares.
Do I have that right? Seems like puts can be more profitable. Willing to hear if that is wrong though.
Now my point about risk was risking my own money right now.
July 1, 2011 - 3:40pm
#101
There is a bit more to it
There is a bit more to it than what I posted above but that is the gist of it. Please ask away if you have any questions or need more explanation, I'm happy to help.
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Your source is: "conspiracy theory" of "friends in China". That alone is sufficient to debunk the theory. But it's a topic worthy of discussion.
Your friends posit a bizarre theory. They think China is pushing silver to its citizens from state owned banks so that the government can later implement an elaborate scheme to confiscate those metals back into state owned banks? The conspiracy defies logic.
The US on the other hand, has a motive to confiscate precious metals. The US is the largest debtor in the history of the world and the US has a history of confiscating precious metals. See FDR. I doubt the US will try it again but it will happen in the US before it ever happens in China.
China is trending wealth building. The US is trending wealth destruction.
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