Silvercorp Metals, Inc. (SVM) - Aggressive Growth Profile

There is a new interview with a Silvercorp representative at financialsense.com for those who are interested.

SVM fell down at the open today but only to bounce at 7.08..... meaning buyers stepped in strong Before it hit 7. thats a bullish sign, and then SVM has been rising strong today off that bounce. a good show for SVM today . Now we need to see the pullback hold support around the 7.20 area and a stable base gets further established at 7-7.30 area.

The last wave Up from the 6.88 low to the 7.88 high  Could be a wave 1 of 5 going UP...to a target of 9.50 area.... OR it could be a bear flag , now coming down and a low target of retesting the  7 and then 6.50 - 6.30   price points is possible.  Right now, could go either way. Holding support now at the 7.20 area is Key for the Upwave to dominate.  Breaking down thru that and retesting 7    would be the next step down but could  foretell  further drop to the bottom at 6.50 area. These scenarios are all possible. 

There are waves within waves playing out. one is bullish (holding now at 7.20 support and targeting 9.50)  and one bearish ( retesting 7 and then one last wave to 6.50-6.30) and Then reversing long from there. 

Notice  the elliott waves for this move down from the recent high at  7.88....coming from the low at 6.88 (see how the numbers look so ...'perfect'  ...  you couldnt engineer more precise numbers  unless you were a  computer algorithm or something ....  or its a coincidence.... doesnt matter...  the 50 % pullback fib zone is 7.38 area.... and today opened with a drop toward 7 but buyers stepped in  quick at 7.08..... now the resistance around 7.50 should see another wave  down toward the middle zone around 7.25- 7.20 , and falling thru that would target a retest of 7.10- 7 area.

a christmas gift    below 7 or at 7 holding support. nothing wrong with buying at 7.  but  a stink bid at 6.40 is possible .

These are bargain buy zones for SVM  , but I want to keep some dry powder for any market crash next year. Imagine buying some at 4, just for fun. SVM is a long term investment for me.

IF SVM holds the  next pullback around 7.22 , the direction is an Upwave to a target around the 9.50 area for this current wave structure.   Failing to hold 7.20 and retesting 7 suggests the Bottom is still forming.... and needs  patience.

Thanks for the T/A  T!  I've learned a lot of on this site from people like yourself.  I am also long SVM, but I don't think I will buy anymore unless it really gets beat down from here.  If and when it gets to the target around $9.50 will it takeoff from there or crash back down?  Just trying to figure out if I should hold or take profits at that time.  I use to be all about fundo's, but it doesn't seem to matter anymore.  EVERYTHING is manipulated to hell!!!

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I have the last three quarters of reported Net Income for Silvercorp as: 29.7M, 34.2M, and (most recently in the last reported Quarter)  25.9M.  Prorated on a yearly basis, and with a market cap of ~1290M, this puts Silvercorp's current P/E @ ~10.8

It seems like the company is priced fairly, maybe towards undervalued side a bit.  They pay a dividend too. (cash talks, BS walks!) But it's not OUTRAGEOUS cheap.. just my opinion.  I am buying anywhere near 7. I like their conservative growth approach and reasonable dividend increase.

There are other companies right now on sale also: Pan American Silver (PAAS) is at about P/E of ~8 (based on their last 3 quarters of net income) and US Silver (USSIF) is sitting at a P/E of 7.1.  So SVM is not the only one that's on sale right now! 

(nice moniker by the way....  :P) ?? i wont ask...) 

Regarding looking at charts and wave structure , elliott wave counting and price forecasting.... you asked about the top forecast in the current wave to 9.50 area, and then what happens....

my  forecast was  derived from  counting elliott waves and looking at fibonnacci levels, and measured moves from wave 1, and assorted technical stuff..... but the idea I am looking at is that   If we have a bottom established around 6. .... and we look at the  last Up wave from there which topped at 7.88  (going from memory, hope I'm not wrong)......  the target for the wave completion   for target going Up is around 9.50 and from there we would supposed to see a 'pullback' from 9.50 down toward  the 8 area....8 - 7.70  lets say.....as the pullback....and then from there  the next wave up would  commence.  I was seeing the target area of 9.50 as the completion of the current wave structure.  which started at the   5.88 low, the lowest low.   The timing of the wave completion  might not finish until next spring....so what happens now that  makes the wave go up thru december,  and then down  in january,  before it bottoms  and  then continues to target 9.50....and if it hits 9.50  around april and may....it becomes "sell in may and go away" again.  This owning  the miners  thing could take a Loooong time to play out.

How about this..... it goes now from 7 to  8  thru xmas.... then sells in january back to  7 area, then goes up to target 9.88 by may....then sell some of it there, falls back to 7.88 and holds firm there and   that will be the low for 2012.

If I make any more long term forecasting like this ,I'll start sounding like Ivars. I better stop.

SVM is trading at around $6.90 PPS, the last time SVM was trading at that price on a consistent basis was when silver was around $17.90 oz. SVMs earnings, profits etc., basically everything that really matters are in much better shape now then they were then, yet here we are at $6.90. 

They are making a lot of money... but that is the problem with a fiat currency; it is constantly devalued. I would love it for a few more buy backs and instead of selling all the silver, they should just store it up. My wish for Christmas is the miners to horde and send the price up, then watch JP super short traders eat a silver bullet as they are horribly forced to cover at $60 / oz. I am buying a little every day it is under $7

How the hell do they get away with this crap?  There's 170 million real shares outstanding which means there are 80 million phantom shares. Jeez!!!

Bought a nice sized chunk @ $6.13 on Thursday.  Only want the price to be high on ONE day - the day you sell.  The dividend is almost @ ~1.7% at these prices.  Bring it on!