There is a new interview with a Silvercorp representative at financialsense.com for those who are interested.
Silvercorp Metals, Inc. (SVM) - Aggressive Growth Profile
Dont be shocked if SVM plunges below 7 this week, for a spike and a buy at 6.50 or lower. its a christmas gift.... sell a piece at 9 and 10 and keep your core.
Its like buying spot silver at 30. not a bad bargain.
SVM fell down at the open today but only to bounce at 7.08..... meaning buyers stepped in strong Before it hit 7. thats a bullish sign, and then SVM has been rising strong today off that bounce. a good show for SVM today . Now we need to see the pullback hold support around the 7.20 area and a stable base gets further established at 7-7.30 area.
The last wave Up from the 6.88 low to the 7.88 high Could be a wave 1 of 5 going UP...to a target of 9.50 area.... OR it could be a bear flag , now coming down and a low target of retesting the 7 and then 6.50 - 6.30 price points is possible. Right now, could go either way. Holding support now at the 7.20 area is Key for the Upwave to dominate. Breaking down thru that and retesting 7 would be the next step down but could foretell further drop to the bottom at 6.50 area. These scenarios are all possible.
There are waves within waves playing out. one is bullish (holding now at 7.20 support and targeting 9.50) and one bearish ( retesting 7 and then one last wave to 6.50-6.30) and Then reversing long from there.
Notice the elliott waves for this move down from the recent high at 7.88....coming from the low at 6.88 (see how the numbers look so ...'perfect' ... you couldnt engineer more precise numbers unless you were a computer algorithm or something .... or its a coincidence.... doesnt matter... the 50 % pullback fib zone is 7.38 area.... and today opened with a drop toward 7 but buyers stepped in quick at 7.08..... now the resistance around 7.50 should see another wave down toward the middle zone around 7.25- 7.20 , and falling thru that would target a retest of 7.10- 7 area.
a christmas gift below 7 or at 7 holding support. nothing wrong with buying at 7. but a stink bid at 6.40 is possible .
These are bargain buy zones for SVM , but I want to keep some dry powder for any market crash next year. Imagine buying some at 4, just for fun. SVM is a long term investment for me.
IF SVM holds the next pullback around 7.22 , the direction is an Upwave to a target around the 9.50 area for this current wave structure. Failing to hold 7.20 and retesting 7 suggests the Bottom is still forming.... and needs patience.
Thanks for the T/A T! I've learned a lot of on this site from people like yourself. I am also long SVM, but I don't think I will buy anymore unless it really gets beat down from here. If and when it gets to the target around $9.50 will it takeoff from there or crash back down? Just trying to figure out if I should hold or take profits at that time. I use to be all about fundo's, but it doesn't seem to matter anymore. EVERYTHING is manipulated to hell!!!
Silvercorp sues hedge fund manager for defamation
2011-12-07 14:28 ET - Street Wire
by Mike Caswell
Silvercorp Metals Inc. has filed a defamation suit in the Supreme Court of British Columbia against Bronte Capital Management Pty. Ltd., an Australian-based hedge fund manager that accused the company of being a fraud in a blog posting. According to the suit, a Bronte officer made the posting as part of a "short-and-distort" conspiracy, in which it and others shorted the company and hoped to push it down with false and defamatory statements. Silvercorp is seeking damages and an accounting of profits, as well as an injunction to prevent Bronte from dissipating assets.
See the link above for more.....
SVM Year in Review.......
Given the current market conditions SVM should be trading at around $9. The manipulation in this stock is obvious for all to see.
Bigger Pic: http://i.imgur.com/EiZS0.jpg
I have the last three quarters of reported Net Income for Silvercorp as: 29.7M, 34.2M, and (most recently in the last reported Quarter) 25.9M. Prorated on a yearly basis, and with a market cap of ~1290M, this puts Silvercorp's current P/E @ ~10.8
It seems like the company is priced fairly, maybe towards undervalued side a bit. They pay a dividend too. (cash talks, BS walks!) But it's not OUTRAGEOUS cheap.. just my opinion. I am buying anywhere near 7. I like their conservative growth approach and reasonable dividend increase.
There are other companies right now on sale also: Pan American Silver (PAAS) is at about P/E of ~8 (based on their last 3 quarters of net income) and US Silver (USSIF) is sitting at a P/E of 7.1. So SVM is not the only one that's on sale right now!
yes sir, manipulation is visible....just about every expert and semi expert can see the manipulation now. and great chart Battle beagle...I was looking at the exact same thing in the chart today.... thinking hey, this stock should have held at a bottom of 8 and should at least be holding 9 now....and your chart is showing the very vision. and yes ID. there are some others out there that might be a bargain.... but it just depends on all the due diligence we can gather, and beyond finding a good company...its a matter of timing and understanding the geopolitical global economic crisis that seems to be coming to a head these days.
I wonder now, if this is Not a good time to be buying much of anything.... the year is about to end, sellers for tax loss and sellers who look at the patterns , will sell in January, the first quarter of 2012 feels like a doozie coming our way ... I am already seeing many charts that are looking like a continuing downward bowl bottom still forming going into spring and summer of next year before they reach a bottom to base at. Whether its Silver Wheaton, or SVM, or Eldorado Gold, or a few others I looked at.... on the Weekly charts..... you can see the time is cooking slowly, playing out slowly, forget about a rally into the christmas year end..... the wave structure is already pointing to spring and even summer as the shape of the curve is still half baked,sliding down and then basing . This fall/winter in the miners is NOT like last year. Last year was a soaring rocket ship to the top. This year...... its a slow downward slide still baking , and needs alot of patience to wait for the next 6 to 9 months before we see what it looks like establishing a base bottom. I'm seeing this chart structure in more and more charts now... the weekly charts. in the miners. the seniors and juniors.
Maybe this is the result of the manipulation happening..... making the miners stretch out over a long time period..... like a slow motion slide into a base bottom.
I'm starting to see a more clear picture by looking more at weekly charts than daily charts.
I dont know much about US Silver , Pan Am silver I know is now unfavorable to Casey because it involves Peru and Argentina. They recommended selling PAAS.
I sense that maybe the best approach for now, is to look to trim the tops of miners now, ..... and raise as much cash as possible..... in order to buy the best bottoms ..... next year. next summer and fall. I'm looking at Silver Wheaton at 22 to 26
Eldorado at 12 to 13
But Silvercorp seems to be here now at the 6 area. so I would be willing to buy more at 6 to 6.40
(nice moniker by the way.... :P) ?? i wont ask...)
Regarding looking at charts and wave structure , elliott wave counting and price forecasting.... you asked about the top forecast in the current wave to 9.50 area, and then what happens....
my forecast was derived from counting elliott waves and looking at fibonnacci levels, and measured moves from wave 1, and assorted technical stuff..... but the idea I am looking at is that If we have a bottom established around 6. .... and we look at the last Up wave from there which topped at 7.88 (going from memory, hope I'm not wrong)...... the target for the wave completion for target going Up is around 9.50 and from there we would supposed to see a 'pullback' from 9.50 down toward the 8 area....8 - 7.70 lets say.....as the pullback....and then from there the next wave up would commence. I was seeing the target area of 9.50 as the completion of the current wave structure. which started at the 5.88 low, the lowest low. The timing of the wave completion might not finish until next spring....so what happens now that makes the wave go up thru december, and then down in january, before it bottoms and then continues to target 9.50....and if it hits 9.50 around april and may....it becomes "sell in may and go away" again. This owning the miners thing could take a Loooong time to play out.
How about this..... it goes now from 7 to 8 thru xmas.... then sells in january back to 7 area, then goes up to target 9.88 by may....then sell some of it there, falls back to 7.88 and holds firm there and that will be the low for 2012.
If I make any more long term forecasting like this ,I'll start sounding like Ivars. I better stop.
While I am concerned about a sell off in January, I don't think we'll see one that was nearly as bad as the one in January of this year. Since the miners have been consolidating pretty much all year long, I think any sell off will be met with buying and the prices will be bid right back up in no time. Just my thoughts anyways.
thats why the experts are saying the miners are ridiculously undervalued and manipulated , etc etc (thats an interesting chart Beagle)
and I agree with you Stirling.... lets hope we are right.
How much lower can they go from here?
There must be something very important about the miners , for them to be so undervalued, so stifled against the spot metal prices. Arent the miners, successful companies, the producers making alot of cash? profitable business? are we missing something? Whats the true value of Green Mountain coffee anyway? really. whats the true value of Silvercorp. whats the value of Home Depot? whats the value of Tata Motors.
They are making a lot of money... but that is the problem with a fiat currency; it is constantly devalued. I would love it for a few more buy backs and instead of selling all the silver, they should just store it up. My wish for Christmas is the miners to horde and send the price up, then watch JP super short traders eat a silver bullet as they are horribly forced to cover at $60 / oz. I am buying a little every day it is under $7
Boys, girls, we got a problem, the pic below is the latest # of shares floating around the market, SVM has been massively diluted by 74,511,003 shares around or around 43% due to naked shorting! Info comes from shortsqueeze.com
Shares Outstanding: 170,603,142 (as of September 30, 2011)
Options/Warrants Outstanding: 3,245,855 (as of September 30, 2011)
Shares Fully Diluted: 173,848,997 (as of September 30, 2011)
How the hell do they get away with this crap? There's 170 million real shares outstanding which means there are 80 million phantom shares. Jeez!!!
ask the company about this, tell them to look into it and do something about it.
Bought a nice sized chunk @ $6.13 on Thursday. Only want the price to be high on ONE day - the day you sell. The dividend is almost @ ~1.7% at these prices. Bring it on!
I like that buy ID ,well done.
SVM still needs watching thru this low zone. hard to imagine any plunge below 6 now,maybe 5.90 or something but 6 feels like a good price to me.
my question now, is should we look to sell a little around 10/11/12 area? and play along with the Range Trade game.