The Safe Havens

Wow, what a lousy day for just about everything. Crude down $4. Corn down nearly the limit. Dow down 178. The only things higher were the "safe havens" of the PO$, gold and silver. Yikes! And if you think that's scary, wait until you see the gold chart. More on that later.

First, take a look at this incredible rally in the POSX. It should encounter some tough sledding between 76.60 and 77 but, who knows? If the euro continues to fall apart, anything can happen.

paper_6-15pm_700h.jpg

My main concern tonight is the shape of the gold chart. It is forming an almost perfectly symmetrical, rounded top. As you know, I think the summer doldrums are here and that gold will now be rangebound between roughly 1460 and 1550 until late August, so I'm not expecting a drop to 1200 or something like that. What does concern me, however, is the prospect for a sharp drop in the next few days. Gold needs to move decisively through 1535 and continue toward 1545 or it risks a sharp and sudden drop toward 1500, maybe even 1490. This concerns me enough that I just sold the rest of my August calls, which leaves me with no position in gold for the first time in recent memory.

paper_6-15pmgold_700h.jpg

Please allow me to reiterate: Be cautious out there. The games on the Comex are serious and ugly and tptb will fleece you if you give them the opportunity. Raise cash. If you must play, make only very small bets. Be patient. By Labor Day, we will be on the cusp of another, great fiat-making opportunity in the PMs. Don't blow yourself up before then.

Have a great night. Thanks again for all your support and well wishes for the new site. I'm glad you enjoy it. TF

126 Comments

JimmyTheHand's picture

Thanks

Thanks for the update Turd.

Helluva weird day today.

TheGoodDoctor's picture

Second! Thanks Turd!

Second! Thanks Turd!

PS Can't open the charts.

Aronnax's picture

Could you add the site address to introductory YouTube clip?

Thanks as always, TF. Trying to spread the word -- a colleague actually came up to me saying I should stock up on clothes, as Cotton prices are rising and clothing would be expensive going forward. So, I had the perfect segue to forward her this:

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/02/preparing-accordingly-ii.html

Keep on rocking -- I suggest you add the site address to the description of the launch video (if you plan to leave that up) for the Google-challenged out there.

Turd Ferguson's picture

I hear ya, Jimmy. Kinda

MODERATOR

I hear ya, Jimmy. Kinda giving me the creeps. That's why I raised some cash.

Response to: Thanks
tmosley's picture

Paper games may well be at an

Paper games may well be at an end in 2-4 weeks.  Be wary if the COMEX owes you anything.

TrollKiller's picture

Keep Up the Fire!!!!

Keep swinging TF!

We're right here!

"I propose to fight it out along this line if it takes all summer!" ~ Distant Uncle of the TrollKiller, Ulysses S. Grant

silvermedusa's picture

I keep having this thought

I keep having this thought flit through my brain:  What if the "summer doldrums" don't happen for PMs this summer?  Summer doldrums were for a "normal" market.  Nothing normal now.  What if we just get a slow, or not so slow, steady march up?  If the stock market keeps tanking, where else are people gonna go?  I think we are gonna go back down to 6k on Dow, who knows on SP.  All summer.    Especially if no QE.  If there is a next QE, or whatever they decide to call it, PMs will still go up, where they spend that fiat?  Safe havens indeed, but I don't define POSX as a safe haven.  : )

Guardian's picture

Comex and Avatar

Is the paint dry in here yet?

I don't think the avatar upload is working right now.

But more importantly, and this is a repeat...did we lose another almost 2M oz on the Comex today? 

Sterling's picture

Can't wait to see the COT

Can't wait to see the COT report!

pailin's picture

Rounded Top Gold

Turd, that is indeed a scary picture you paint on gold.

But only scary if you're overweight. I think there's a bunch of us that would like to get in on the XAU party at 1480-90. Even if it ends up being a hold for a few weeks to get 1545 again.

Sgt.Iria's picture

Gold

Yep, I'd say there's only one trend line that matters on gold right now, that is the Monthly from Oct/Nov 2008 lows through to Feb 2010 lows, its been kicked a few times and basically held. Your lower range 1460 estimate would be about right for a test mid to late July. The only thing between that is the daily rising channel with the lower trend line looking right for a test around 1500. Gold always loves the round numbers so it might bounce nicely around there and stay inside the rising channel for a while. But I expect the monthly trend to get a look before we move on. Keep your powder dry and wait till you see the whites of their eyes :)

EDIT: Daily channel lower TL is lows of April 12th, 5th May, 17th May 2011.

mezzrow's picture

flat and happy - waiting on the next opportunity

when I think of today's economy and TPTB, while the Greeks riot, and our commander in chief thinks "shovel-ready jobs" makes a dynamite laugh line, I can't get this tune out of my head.

 
just saying...  

Thanks, Turd.  The site just rocks.

     
      
bernard's picture

Dry Powder, Lock Stock

2 smoking barrels ready.

What's up and big ups to every1 on this forum. No doubt the populace of TFMETALS mirrors the most independent and dagger-edged people in the world.

We are waking up, 1 by 1, of this I am sure. Nothing is more certain than the fate which awaits America: CITY SUSHI's on every block!

bernard's picture

Silver Price

Hello everyone,

Here is a fun test for you all. You need 2 checkbooks, by the way.

Goto: http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=w1

Now, take your 2 checkbooks, and line them up side by side with the basic slope of the trend line.

As you can see, we are exactly where we need to be.

Good looks, and big ups

atlee's picture

Greece

Word is Greece is going to try to form a new govt. If that is the case then the opportunity for a second chance of a bailout is gone as there is no legit govt. That could mean more pressure on equity mkts as that is probably not priced in. The Greek drama is what has been keeping the metals from dropping today. The Euro looks terrible and that is giving the dollar the steam to move to 77 or even 78. Like Turd says, if you must play, stay small and stay tuned.

The goal of the tbtf and the EE is to keep us peasants from making fiat in the pms. They will chew up your funds so that when the real move comes later this year, you won't be able to participate. Keep watching but the train is not leaving the station until fall.

DayStar's picture

Dry Powder, Lock Stock

Bestever wrote: 

We are waking up, 1 by 1, of this I am sure. Nothing is more certain than the fate which awaits America: CITY SUSHI's on every block!

Daystar replies:

By City Sushi Do you mean bloody body parts?  If that is what you mean, I agree that is a very real possibility and one for which I am preparing.  Got silver?

DayStar

GFforever's picture

Gold is 2 % down from the ATH

Gold is 2 % down from the ATH - even we fall back to 1450  who cares ? even then  it is less than 10% from the top

The Spread between WTI and Brent is still interesting - more than  20 $ meanwhile

I will add an chart tomorrow - maybe nobody can remember that WTI has been the more expensive one for decades..

DayStar's picture

Greece

Atlee, I understand about the EE chewing up your funds so you won't make money in PMs, but I don't understand about the real move.  You are not playing paper are you?  If so, look to end up with nothing.  If you want a good deal on PMs, this is about as low as they are going to go, except gold might go to 1475.  I wouldn't wait till fall to buy physical, and I wouldn't mess with the paper.  Swimming with the sharks will get you eaten.

DayStar

Eric Original's picture

Rounded Top

We had the same formation in January, but TF found the bottom before that thing really played itself out.

nflux's picture

Can't click on charts

as thegooddoctor posted above...

the charts you posted cant be clicked on and enlarged like they could on the blogspot site. fantastic site though, good job!!

xaritas's picture

Nice to know I'm in good company

I've been feeling like a chump trying to figure out what to buy, sell or hold... the only thing I've managed to do right lately is sell Euros.

Vypuero's picture

Market

My shorts on the equity market are finally in the money, but I lost with the crude slam, and to a lesser extent gold - took my first loss on gold

Vypuero's picture

Brent spread

What is the usual spread between Brent and WTI?  What is its significance?

- never mind looks like you mentioned you will show a chart.  I was unaware.

lochsa's picture

Thank you Mr ferguson

Thank you        keep fighting the good fight             interesting     ttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/dylan-ratigan/america-for-sale-is-goldm_b_877285.html

Charles S. Hamlin's picture

Armstrong's call

I seem to recall Martin Armstrong calling for a cycle low on June 13/14 (see link below)...let's hope this works out for us...

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/June13th%2014th%20Turning%20Point%202011.45%2006-14-2011.pdf

Marcus's picture

links to other sites

Turd, old boy, could you provide a feature which allows a guy to link to other sites favored by you? An example is sameasiteverwas. Gracias.

pistol's picture

Dang it!

I just bought some physical gold today. I hope James Turk is right and a summer price explosion is coming.

atlee's picture

No unfortunately DayStar all

No unfortunately DayStar all my gold coins have chocolate centers. I do like shark sushi though.

Ned Braden's picture

Give Me Shelter From The Coming Storm

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