Onward Toward Bullion Bank Collapse - UPDATED

Since writing this report on June 25, The Banks have surged total Comex gold open interest by another 22,000 contracts or 3.5%, all in a desperate attempt to contain the "price" of gold below the post-Brexit highs.

The purpose of this update is to once again highlight the tenuous and desperate situation of The Bullion Banks. These Banks are trapped short in Comex paper gold derivatives and they are clearly attempting to contain/restrain price below $1350 and the post-Brexit highs near $1360. How do we know this? Check the chart below:

The usual Shills and Apologists will claim that the benevolent, altruistic Banks are merely "acting in their role as market-makers" and "providing risk management services for their mining company clients". To that end, you and I are supposed to believe that the 71,309 new Comex gold contracts created since June 23 were done so in order to "maintain an orderly market" and "allow producers to forward sell or hedge" 7,130,900 ounces of gold (about 222 metric tonnes or 7% of global production).


Instead, this Friday's CFTC-generated Bank Participation Report will likely show a NET short position for the 24 largest, global Banks to be in excess of 250,000 contracts. This means two things:

  • On Comex alone and for their own, proprietary accounts, these 24 Banks are NET short 25,000,000 ounces of paper gold. That's about 778 metric tonnes of "gold" or just a shade over 25% of annual, global mine supply.
  • On every $10 move UP in gold going forward, these Banks incur paper losses of $250,000,000. Thus, a move from $1350 to $1390 will "cost" these Banks about $1B in paper losses.

And this is why The Banks are so desperate to contain the paper price here. BUT THEY WILL LOSE! Brexit, NIRP, Eurozone bank collapse, global QE and all the rest WILL all combine to drive physical demand for gold past the point where the Bullion Banks will be able to deliver it. Once delivery failures begin, the collapse of the Paper Derivative Pricing Scheme will quickly follow. From there, where will prices head? We can't know for sure but we can say with certainty that prices will NOT be $1350 an ounce for gold and $20 an ounce for silver.

Again, please take time to read the original post below, pausing to consider the desperate actions of The Banks in the days since. Then ask yourself if you own enough physical gold and silver. If the answer is "no", then we suggest you get your hands on some while there's still time. If you wait until after The Bullion Bank Paper Derivative Pricing Scheme collapses, it will be too late.




The events of Friday not only speed the eventual collapse of the Bullion Bank Paper Derivative Pricing Scheme, they also highlight the fraud of this current system and shine light upon the utter desperation of these Banks to maintain it.

We've written about this countless times over the past six years. Here are just two recent examples:

In short, as a measure of controlling the paper prices of gold and silver, The Bullion Banks that operate on The Comex act as de facto market makers of the paper derivative, Comex futures contract. This gives them the nearly unlimited ability to simply conjure up new contracts from thin air whenever demand for these contracts exceeds available supply and, almost without exception, these Banks issue new contracts by taking the short side of the trade versus a Spec long buyer. Never do these Banks put up actual collateral of physical metal when issuing these paper derivative contracts. Instead, they simply take the risk that their "deep pockets" will allow them to outlast the Spec longs and, without the risk of having to make physical delivery, The Banks almost always win. Eventually, an event like the runup to the Brexit vote or all of the Fed Goon jawboning of May will spook The Specs into selling and this Spec selling is used by The Banks to buy back (cover) their ill-gotten naked shorts and lower total open interest back down. (If you're confused by this, please click the second link listed above for a more detailed explanation of this process.)

How this influences price is simple. If the supply of the paper derivative futures contract was held constant on a daily basis, then price would have to rise or fall based upon simple supply/demand dynamics. When the amount of buyers exceeded sellers, price would have to rise to a point at which existing owners would be willing to sell. But this is NOT how the Comex futures market operates! Because the market-making Banks have the ability to create new contracts from whole cloth, they can instead flood the "market" with new supply whenever it's necessary. This mutes potential upside moves by imparting fresh new supply for the Spec buyers to devour. Price DOES NOT have to rise to a new, natural equilibrium. Instead, price equilibrium is found where demand meets this new supply.

As a case in point, simply study the "market" impact on gold "prices" in the hours that followed the Brexit decision in the UK. As turmoil shook the global markets, gold shot higher and, at one point, was up nearly $100. However, within hours it had given back nearly half of those gains and then spent the remainder of the day in am unusual and very tight trading range while virtually every other "market" was rocked with volatility throughout the trading day. See below:

The all-important question of the day is: How and why was this done? 

First, the "how". At the end of each trading day, the CME Group issues an update that details total open interest changes for both gold and silver. Friday's preliminary totals can be found here: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/precious/gold_quotes_volume_voi.html  What does the data show? On Friday, with global markets in turmoil and precious metals markets rallying significantly, The Bullion Banks on the Comex issued brand new supply of nearly 60,000 new paper gold contracts! At 100 paper gold ounces per contract, this represents a potential future obligation to deliver almost 6,000,000 ounces of gold, should the Spec long buyers ever stand for delivery (which they won't). So, ask yourself these questions:

  • Did the world's gold producers all suddenly decide to forward sell and hedge 186 metric tonnes of future production yesterday, just as the most significant economic event in eight years was beginning to unfold?


  • Did the Bullion Banks suddenly put up a few million ounces of their own gold and then lever it up a few times and issue 60,000 new contracts based upon this collateral deposit?

Obviously, the answer to both questions is a big, bold NO! Instead, the market-making and price manipulating Banks simply played their usual game, writ large. In a desperate attempt to contain price, they simply issued these 60,000 new contracts and fed them to the Spec buyers. So next, ask yourself these vital questions:

  1. Without this added supply...which grew total open interest by over 10% in one day!...how much further would the paper price of gold have risen yesterday?
  2. If a natural equilibrium was forced to be found between buyers and sellers of existing contracts, would price have settled even higher?
  3. And how much higher? Gold was up nearly $60 yesterday. But without the paper derivative supply increase of 10%, would it have risen $100? $200??

So now let's address the more important part of the question: "why".

Simply put, these Banks are desperate and on the run. However, in their arrogance, they are still flailing away and attempting to postpone their demise. The minimal amount of physical gold that they do hold and utilize to backstop the paper derivative market is shrinking rapidly as investors and institutions around the globe seek gold as a safe haven against the financial devastation of negative interest rates.

But not only are The Banks attempting to reverse this trend that is rapidly deleveraging their system, they are also desperate to protect their established NET short positions from additional paper losses. Recall that the CFTC generates something that it calls The Bank Participation Report every month and we write about this report almost every month, too. Here's the latest: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7675/latest-bank-participation-report

So let's cut to the chase...

With gold at $1060 back on December 1, 2015, the 24 Banks covered by this report were NET short just 30,757 Comex gold contracts. After running this NET short position all the way to 195,262 contracts on May 3, 2016, the report for June showed a NET short position of 133,396 contracts. However, data for this latest report was surveyed on June 7, with price at $1247 and total Comex open interest of 496,330 contracts. By this past Tuesday, in the days before the Brexit total were announced, price had risen to $1318 and then fallen back to $1270. However, total Comex open interest had risen to 571,517 contracts and, by analyzing the latest CFTC-generated Commitment of Traders Report, we can safely estimate that The Banks were likely NET short at least 180,000 Comex gold contracts.

Putting this all together, while price rose from $1060 to $1270, these 24 Banks added about 150,000 contracts of NET short liability to their Comex trading operations. So, with a NET position of 180,000 contracts short and with every contract representing 100 ounces of paper gold, the paper losses to these Banks for every $10 move in the gold price amounts to about $180,000,000. Multiplying that out...When gold was up nearly $100 early Friday, these Banks were on the losing side of a $1,800,000,000 move. Even for the likes of JPM et al, that's a lot of fiat!

So, what did they do? Like any arrogant and addicted gambler, they doubled-down! They put "good money after bad" and, in doing so, likely increased their NET short position to nearly 250,000 contracts! All of this in order to suppress price and get it back under their control. This also allows them to somewhat control the message gold was sending. Can you even imagine the headlines if gold was up $200 yesterday? By holding the gains to just $50, The Banks hope to:

  • Manage the increased physical demand these higher prices are causing AND
  • Mitigate their paper losses. All of those new shorts lowered price by nearly $50 and nearly cut their one-day paper losses in half.

In the end, what's the point of this post? First and foremost, it's simply the latest installment of our efforts to shine the light of truth upon the incredible fraud and sham that is the current paper derivative pricing scheme. The Comex-derived price is not at all related to the price/value of true physical gold. Rather, the price discovered on Comex is simply the price of the derivative, itself, with the price of this derivative determined by changes of supply and demand of the derivative. Barely any physical metal ever exchanges hands on Comex so it is entirely inaccurate to say that the price discovered there has any connection at all to the underlying physical.

That said, though, we'll leave you with one last link that you simply must read. Mark O'Byrne at Goldcore is closely-connected on the ground in London. In all of the hubbub of the Thursday and Friday, you may missed his daily report. If Mark and his sources are correct, we may be rapidly approaching the demise and destruction of these criminal Bullion Banks and their fraudulent pricing scheme. Demand for unencumbered, true physical gold is the key to ending this system and finding justice for gold holders, miners and producers around the globe...and this link may prompt you to think that we are closer to The End than at any other time in the past 40 years: http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-lower-despite-panic-due-to-supply-issues-in-inter-bank-gold-market/

Friday's Brexit vote truly was a game-changer and the single most important financial event since 2008. That it might accelerate the death throes of the Bullion Bank Paper Derivative Pricing Scheme is not something that is fully appreciated by the global gold "community". Hopefully, this post has helped you to understand where we are at present, the reasons behind the price action of Friday and the significance of global physical supply/demand versus paper price going forward.




Turd Ferguson's picture

For more information...


At around mid-day on Friday, I recorded this with Rory Hall and Dave Kranzler. Please watch/listen:

Maryann's picture

So much great info...

TF thank you for all your hard work!!

Maryann's picture

So much great info....

TF thank you for all your hard work!!!  Now go enjoy your weekend. smiley

Ahh...don't know how to remove double post!

gold slut's picture

Best weekend in a long, long time.

Friday:  Brexit, Cameron falling on his sword.

Saturday:  Postman delivered another ounce of yellow shiney to my door (bought Wednesday night - now £100 more expensive).

Jesus, this has been one Sh#t-kicking weekend!

Edit: Oh, and third!  I may have to have a lie down!

addley1000's picture

Are we there yet? Are we there?

Like an anxious kid in the car ...

No not yet but can vaguely see the destination on the horizon.

coin collectress's picture

Outstanding, Turd

The light at the end of the tunnel appears larger and larger. Watch out for trains though! Lol.

Thanks for giving up part of your week-end to spread the truth to subscribers and the public.

Mickey's picture

Thursday nite

we all know that gold quickly ran to up 102 from down maybe 10 when Nigel looked like he was conceding.

Then at 102 up gold turned around and settled in at 60-70 up

what I think we saw first ws a 102 run up when buyers outnumbered sellers and then whoosh the sellers came in.

1350 was the level along with breeching 100 up--it gave the BB's an open door to create a selling environment.

They have a weekend time out on the field to develop their next play while the longs are not coordinated. The BB problem is they are running out of physical room to play and moreso as our uncoordinated group grows.

truthseeker's picture

TF, What happens if buyers don't allow a big drop?

I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

I've always assumed that the "Banks" plan is go crazy short until the buying panic subsides, manufacturer a downtrend, and cover shorts after the specs panic and sell.

I've always hoped that one of these times events cause buyers to keep pushing the price price up, the "Banks" eventually have to cover shorts, and the price gets out of control to the upside.

But can you explain to me what happens if it something in between? What will the "Banks" do if the big physical buyers support the price at say $1280-$1300? I mean forever.

Can the Banks maintain their current short exposure indefinitely at the current price? If they can't manufacture a downdraft will they be forced to cover at some point at $1,300 and then up? Or can they just keep their short contracts forever?

In other words, can the "Banks" be forced into a situation where it is THEM that starts the short squeeze (buying back their shorts at $1300 realizing that no downtrend is possible and driving price even higher) - rather than new specs doing  the new buying?

Just once I'd like to see price supported when the "Banks" are heavy short. Andy M always says there is physical support but it always seems to disappear when the manufactured down push is instituted.

Dirt_Reynolds's picture

Just warming up for the morning.


I can see I need more coffee anyway.

indiana rod's picture


The rub comes in when. at delivery time the long has to sell because he never intended to take delivery.

The long that stands for delivery has to put up the full amount of the contract. Even then the long can be forced to cash settle, not take delivery.

lund175's picture

Who owns the media

This guy always has informative short video's.

Turd Ferguson's picture

For your consideration



Of course, NONE of this will stop the freight train of growing interest in similar votes in France, Belgium, The Netherlands...et al.

benque's picture

It appears that Millenials are the issue with Brexit

On the news, all that is being shown are snivelling millenials, scared to death that all their free stuff might disappear.

I see no evidence of self responsibility, or pride for country, occupation, themselves, in anything....anything that is, except for pride in having no viable gender.

The EU nearly succeeded in destroying everything admirable in a society, but Boomers managed to throw a stick in the spokes, as a probable last gasp of their generation.

What about the generation behind the millenials?  Little Turd and Little Fix come to mind.  If only they are representative of the majority of their generation, then humanity may just have a hope in hell, to avoid total slavery or nuclear annihilation.

The time to drag the banksters out and string them up, a-la Mussolini, is now, or perhaps never.

tyberious's picture

The Amount Of Stuff Being

The Amount Of Stuff Being Bought, Sold And Shipped Around The U.S. Hits The Lowest Level In 6 Years

by Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse Blog:

When less stuff is being bought, sold and shipped around the country with each passing month, how in the world can the U.S. economy be in “good shape”? Unlike official government statistics which are often based largely on projections, assumptions and numbers seemingly made up out of thin air, the Cass Freight index is based on real transactions conducted by real shipping companies. And what the Cass Freight Index is telling us about the state of the U.S. economy in 2016 lines up perfectly with all of the other statistics that are clearly indicating that we have now shifted into recession mode.

If you are not familiar with the Cass Freight Index, here is a definition of the index from the official Cass website

Read More

SS121's picture

The Bismarck - (understanding strategies and tactics)

If you have the weekend viewing time, please give this documentary a watch. 

Especially notice the conflicting strategies and tactics of the Admiral and the ship's Captain.  And be mindful of our discussions re: TPTB, the bros., and bankers etc..

and if you're really into metaphors, compare the Bismarck's disabled rudder to the system's disabled silver chart in June of 2013

tyberious's picture


ABSOLUTE BLOCKBUSTER “ORLANDO” SMOKING GUN – Judge Andrew Napolitano: “No one died until 5:13 am when the SWAT team entered!” — DID SWAT EXECUTE 49 PEOPLE? BECAUSE IT’S CLEAR THAT OMAR MATEEN DIDN’T

from TRU NEWS:

BLOCKBUSTER! MUST HEAR: According to the “official” Orlando shooting 911 transcripts: NO ONE DIED AT THE PULSE NIGHTCLUB UNTIL THE SWAT TEAM ENTERED AT 5:13 AM!!!!

bently's picture

Bravo, Turd!

We value so much the penetrating insights and analysis to shine the light of truth on these never-ending attempts to suppress the rise of gold and silver, which represent honest money and a critical protection of our freedom.

I hope a way can be found for your latest efforts to appear on Zero Hedge and multiple other sites.  

Many thanks for your courage and persistence.    

Mobius's picture

This is exactly what I think of...

...every time I hear Yellen say that she stands prepared to provide liquidity to the "markets".  This is where it goes, bets like this - CRIMEX shorts on gold and any other that would otherwise hinder the financial stability/stealing ability of our oppressors.  All that means is that they are backing the bets and allowing the game to go on, and since not enough physical has been drained, the game continues....it's hard for the house to lose, especially when they change the rules right as they are about to face the reaper.  Zero credibility.  I wish Druckenmiller and his peers would talk to guys like Kyle Bass and move out of their claims on gold (GLD - yet another demand sponge), and get the real deal.  This charade would be over in a heartbeat...paper/electronic "liquidity" or no.

SS121's picture

The Great ZeroHedge, how sad...

They can't pump out the Brexit damage control fast enough-

Maybe there will be a second vote!!

Maybe the Brexit will get vetoed!!

Maybe Texas will exit the U.S.!! (Oh how the bros. LOATHE the Christian Superpower United States of America)

ZH is panicked,  they are overreacting.  

With this behavior they are "Outing" themselves as the tool of the NWO/Globalists(bros.).

Or as Tyler might say...

Tyler Durden's picture Another Rumor Becomes Fact:  We, ZeroHedge, Openly Admit We Are Owned By And Work Solely To Support The Global Fiat System And It's Private Owners.

- - - - - 

A lot of true colors coming out these days.  good times.

AlienEyes's picture

Judge Napolitano

I love the guy for calling a duck, a duck.  yes smiley heart angel

Having said that, he had better :

1) Stay the hell out of Orlando.

2) Invest in some top of the line Kevlar clothes.

3) Hire a full time bodyguard with a Glock and a hundred round magazine and make Fox News pay for it.

4) Purchase a scraped "Warthog" and have the titanium "bathtub" installed in the rear seat of his car. Send the bill to Rupert.

AlienEyes's picture

RE : How stupid and totally delusional is this?!

We are now harvesting the fruits of "dumbed down"....compliments of the NEA (No Education Arseholes).  angry


@ benque

Very well said ! That is exactly why I consider most millennials to be "expendables".....and the sooner the better. They made themselves the "Half-Assed Trash" generation and most all of them could greatly benefit from "Lifespan Modification Therapy".  wink

Angry Chef's picture

This Is An Hour But Worth It

Rogue Money Radio 6.24.16 - YouTube

Watch for the carnage on Monday. It will be fun watching Banksters off themselves for once instead of getting free flying lessons.

Harley's picture

Sums it up well

Craig, great video on Shadow of Truth!  Awesome!

I'm a stacker first, secondly a Turdite (subscriber), then a trader... smiley

Just sharing that Greg Mannarino just posted a weekend video (he only does this if there's something serious going on)...
He sums up the mainstream Fear Mongering pretty well.  (Please share it to educate others). 
Thanks! laugh

Grey Mare's picture

about that coffee, Dirt

I sincerely apologize for being the cause of the lost coffee.  I could quibble and argue that I intended that comment not so much as cynical as sarcastic, but it was over-the-top.  Especially since it was not directed at AgAu, which in retrospect I see that it likely appeared to be.  Always respect the posts of AA (and yourself). 


cobber1212's picture

(No subject)

SRSrocco's picture

IS SILVER AFTER BITCOIN–The Next Chinese Momentum Play?

IS SILVER AFTER BITCOIN–The Next Chinese Momentum Play?

Morgan Stanley estimates 160,000 new accounts were set up online between July 2015 and February 2016. Individual investors tend to be most active when markets are rising, and have dominated past rallies in Chinese futures.

.....Curiously, if a crypto-currency without intrinsic value can muster such popularity, why not speculate on gold and silver? Particularly silver, as it stands out as a “poor man’s gold”, ideal for action seeking, trigger-happy Chinese investors.


AIJ's picture

This is a good article discussing Bitcoin/Gold/Intrinsic Value


and also this one:


"Bitcoin Has Intrinsic Scarcity

The denominational in-built currency of the Bitcoin network is bitcoins, of which there can only ever be a maximum of 21 million… Bitcoin therefore has intrinsic scarcity… Like Gold it is expensive to mine and takes (computational) resources to produce, and like Gold it is finitely unprintable… You can’t print Gold and you can’t print bitcoins either… Whatever trade and commerce and industries store and trade their wealth on the Bitcoin network, that wealth is added to the Blockchain… A million people with a thousand pounds (Fiat Sterling value) of value trading on the blockchain, would make the Bitcoin network worth a Billion pounds; divide that by 21 million, gives you a value of £ 476.19… Ten million people with ten thousand pounds of wealth on the blockchain would be One Hundred Billion pounds; divide by 21 million, gives you a value of £ 4761.90… This is a quick and basic illustration of how it works… The more people use this fledgling technology, the more assets that are stored and traded through the blockchain because of its inherent and intrinsic utility for asset transfer; the more value is added, but at the end of it,only 21 million bitcoins into which it can be divided… That is intrinsic scarcity…"

SquibLoad's picture

Those Rory and Dave Talks made my Saturday

Honestly folks. If you're not a paying member of this site and just a lurker, you're out of your mind. This is the best money I spend each year..

You measure value by return from cost ... well Craig gives to the point that it isn't so much a value, but a gift.

Join. Contribute. Share. 

Dirt_Reynolds's picture


More please!

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