Does "600" Plus or Minus Matter When We're Talking Tonnes of Gold?

Late last year (September 2015) I posted and linked to Ronan Manly's Blog about The LBMA, Thomson/Reuters GFMS, and The 2000 Tonnes of Gold that Just Appeared in 2013.

(Link:  September 8, 2015 )

Now if you, Dear Reader, or I myself ,were to suddenly gain (or lose!) several thousand tonnes of monetary metal - raw material for a Country's National Asset Holdings and it's Central Bank Currency Reserves- we would probably notice this fact pretty fast. And upon completing our tax returns, annual accounts, or just doing monthly management accounts, we would be highly likely to have the quantity and value highlighted clearly and without any doubt, vagueness, or lack of clarity in any way.

But the great and large and trusted institutions that actually do deal with gold, I mean really big gold exchanges, the purveyors of gold markets supply and demand data. Well ... how should I put this? They seem to have certain "tweaks" that come and go in their printed brochures, press releases and so on. And it's amazing how often central bank secretive transactions are never too distant from the errata, vagueness, or whatever adjective you personally prefer to use in describing the lack of precision in such large monetary numbers.

Now when I say the word "tweak" you might be forgiven in assuming some small adjustment, errata, correction upon arrival of more exact statistics and such like.

But this time it's 600 tonnes approximately.

That's 600 tonnes of gold.

Are you sitting up paying attention? That's quite a "tweak", isn't it? A sizeable tweak. A whopper.  If we talk US dollar sized tweaks, it's 24 billion and 9 million of them!

This latest episode comes once again from Ronan Manly's latest Blog article at com:

Apples and Oranges: An update on LBMA Refinery Statistics and GFMS

It's well worth a read. Thanks for the research Ronan!

I leave you to follow the links and read Ronan's full article. His final paragraph goes to the heart of the matter. Our respect and tolerance, and whether these are actually warranted in certain high profile institutions:

"....  Overall, this series of communications from the LBMA leaves a lot to be desired, and undermines trust in LBMA issued data. It will be interesting to see whether the LBMA will surreptitiously alter its press release and brochure, or issue a correction and clarification, or leave the errors as is in the respective documents. "

That's it for now!

Best of luck to you.

Argentus Maximus


The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice The author advises that he trades and holds market positions in accordance with his own opinions.


Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Great find, Argentus! We know how they do the silver fix, too

Make it up and cheat!

Orange's picture


Just in case you have not seen this. Gold and Silver in $ and RMB

argentus maximus's picture

I look forward to receiving

I look forward to receiving the next tranche of information about that silver fix class action lawsuit.

argentus maximus's picture

Deutsche Bank Confirms Silver

Deutsche Bank Confirms Silver Market Manipulation In Legal Settlement, Agrees To Expose Other Banks

from Zerohedge on 14th April  is the last I read on the silver fix matter.

LostMind's picture

As always Thank you AM...

Question for that great mind of yours.

Metals to rise or fall after the great Yellon speaks today?

I'm looking to either buy the monster box of ASE's or 7.5 ounces of the yellow pet rock. Rolling the dice on when...

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Ha! LostMind...

Not speaking for Argentus here, but that is like asking an expert on tides how big the next wave is going to be!  My man AM deals in larger timeframes and movements, and doesn't sweat or typically care about the daily noise!

If you are looking for shorter-term timing, maybe this chart would help?

A bit later in June and July are often a good time to get long, so maybe hold off a bit for the stacking?  Who knows...

argentus maximus's picture

Because LostMind asked ...

Because LostMind asked ... even though Pining got it spot on graphically! smiley

Speaking about adding to longs:

The bump down end of June may attract me for gold, and maybe it will not be substantial enough. It will talk for itself and I just listen to what I think it says.

I'm into July (3rd week July-1st week Aug) for a seasonal low, but if it comes out as a high that's ok.

And then after that I really want to be prepared for potential acquisitions in October. In paticular, there just might be a silver decline from here towards October which I would want to use if it materializes.

Whatever, it will be in the Setup thread as we arrive at it. Always provided I become aware of what's going on before it's over! That's the never ending challenge!

LostMind's picture

Thanks Pining and AM

I look at PM's as a hedge not an investment, so once I buy its gone. Trade fiat for metal for the "Whenever" blow up of the current fiat and reset. I have some jingle in the pocket so was looking to do a trade this week. Otherwise, I will keep looking at new fishing boats...

I do appreciate both of your analysis to the nth degree. Always very helpful, even when sometimes over this lost minds head laugh

Gramp's picture

Silver - On How It's Made

Thanks for your Input AM!  

jaba's picture

@Argentus Maximus

A very interesting article, however, I think perhaps your math is faulty; in that one tonne of gold is worth approx $ 40 million. So 600 tonnes is $ 24 Billion not $ 29 Million!

SS121's picture


is that 600t of fiat gold, or 600t of physical Gold??

argentus maximus's picture

Faulty math

Hmmm I do believe you are correct Jaba!

I wonder how I fat fingered my calculator so thoroughly? Just not in the habit of counting my stash in tonnes I suppose .... laugh

I just rechecked:  $40015.78 per kg just now

so a tonne is 1000 Kgs and $40, 015 x 1000 = $40,015,000

and since we're talking about 550 - 650 tonnes (I used 600 as a rounded "middle" number)

then 600 x $40, 015,000 would work out at $24, 009,000,000.

Twenty four billion sounds so much more impressive for a wonky amount of officialdom's gold!

I'll correct the above text. Thanks Jaba.

Dirt_Reynolds's picture


I thought you might be trying out for the WaPo, ;)

argentus maximus's picture

@SS121600 T of fiat or 600t


600 T of fiat or 600t of real physical 100% owned deliverable ?

Heh heh! You baaaaad distrusting person , you! smiley smiley

Well let's look at it this way.:

If their leverage is, what, 400:1 at mid month? Then they have deliverables on the road or in the air due for just in time delivery at end of month.

We allow that they are professionals in whatever their trade should be called, fractional bullion is a good name I think. So they will have a good trading pattern based estimate for how many longs actually have the money, will and intent to stand for delivery. And of those who stand, they would also know roughly how many will accept a cheque, wire payment of fiat T-Bond deposits instead of solid heavy yellow shiny stuff.

And on top of those factors, there is the knowledge that they have about how much their central bank (Fed, et al) will stump up to cover short term shortfalls at delivery times to tide them over. Presumably a Fed or CB would want their physical back later, but if it ain't forthcoming two things likely happen: first the taxpayer loses and the players walk, and second they lose the ability to play their nice little earner game in the future. They wouldn't like to lose future earnings. So they are motivated to play it sharp, but not too sharp so as to get caught short easily. Professional fractional bullion bankers and exchanges and their agents would be like all professionals in all business, not easily put in a spot.

Lots of factors that we are not about to be advised upon.....

And I agree totally with the point you made.

It's in the "sealed LBMA vault system" in a world where financial institutions get a govt legal (?) pass on good accounting practice, and practically these institutions are exempt from "acceptable-to-us" standards. It's an attractive area for people of a certain type to twist information about. Ronan Manly is performing a great service for precious metals investors with his spotlight-shining-into-the murky-system research. I sent him a message of appreciation for his work.

argentus maximus's picture

The WaPo off the table? Darn!

The WaPo off the table? Darn!

Turd Ferguson's picture

Great stuff, AM



amarula4's picture

Brexit note for traders - UK brokers are issuing increased

margin requirements to account holders from now until further notice, until we clear the increased volatility around the 23 June poll day. If you trade EUR or GBP this may affect US brokers and accounts. Just sayin'...

canary's picture

NATO begins the largest war games in Eastern Europe

Here is what I think of that


                                               And this              

canary's picture

No change in GLD, SLV


jaba's picture

Argentus Maximus

You are most welcome. As you say $24 Billion sounds so much more impressive than $29 Million, which in todays crazy financial sector is barely a rounding error!

ag1969's picture

Rise Up!

streber's picture

Bo Polny, Jun 4, 12 min

Before OCT 2016:

1.  Au, Ag & Money printing explode  

2. Bonds & World economy collapse.

AIJ's picture

BTC / Really

Ack! $14,000/BTC is nothing to what is coming! 2+ million $ without ANY further $ dilution!


Double ACKKKK!

James Crighton's picture

@AIJ - Clif read my chart !

Hey, AIJ, Clif read from the chart I plotted (and mentioned to you) ......

from the banks ................


PS: note to SS121 - sorry mate, not selling my BTC yet ..... waiting for $3 million (with the central bank of Barbados).

canary's picture


I've been shorting the S&P lately expecting a contraction based on lack of new liquidity from the Fed. But if Mr. Turk is right and the S&P senses inflation (besides almost daily VIX manipulation)....we may see new heights soon.

boomer sooner's picture

Thanks AM

for pointing out Ronan's article.  He and Koos do some mighty heavy lifting in the research area and dole it out for free.

I also would like to say THANK YOU to AM, Dr Jerome, Pining and Cal Law for the great articles for discussion!  And lively discussions they have been.

SS121's picture

JC, on June 7th 2016 your BTC2AG index is green and 31.15 !!

Right now silver is $18.83 per oz. at the going ASE Monster Box rate.

Your BTC is/are $586.53 each

m e a n i n g . . . for each of your btc you could theoretically obtain 31.15 oz. of .999 pure Silver.

green=physical Silver is still available via the retail supply process for silver chart prices.

keep me posted my friend!

James Crighton's picture

SS121 - 31.15

Will do my friend - but please remember, I already have lots of Ag and some Au - just check the pile next to me in the pic of me (lying on the banks)..........


AlienEyes's picture

@ SS121

31.15 oz  is about one ounce short of a kilo.

Safety Dan's picture

FULFORD: Rothschild Khazarian

FULFORD: Rothschild Khazarian mafia using delaying tactics but time is running out [Short Report]

June 6, 2016

The noose that is closing on the Khazarian mafia and the Rothschild family nexus controlling it is getting tighter. Having missed one deadline to meet with a representative of the White Dragon Society, a representative of Baron Jacob Nathaniel Rothschild is supposed to meet with a messenger from the White Dragon Society tomorrow (June 7th) in the US. If the Rothschilds miss this meeting or fail to reach an agreement in principle then, open season will be declared on that entire genocidal family group WDS, gnostic Illuminati and other allied groups promise.

Also, the official bankruptcy on May 2nd, 2016 of the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Corporation has triggered high level negotiations between US and Chinese authorities this week. In Beijing a high level economic and diplomatic exchange is concluding on Tuesday.

Opening ceremony of China-U.S. high-level dialogue held in Beijing – Xinhua |

Opening ceremony of China-U.S. high-level dialogue held in Beijing—

The economic discussions center on what parts of the American economic infrastructure the Chinese will be allowed to buy up, with the US threatening to close its markets to China as its main bargaining card to prevent a total Chinese take-over of the US economy. The other related topic of discussion will be exactly how much of their US Treasury holdings the Chinese will be forced to write off. Needless to say the Chinese will be asking for full payment in the form of US real estate, factories and other assets while the Americans will be asking the Chinese to take as big a haircut as possible.

As a preface to this meeting, there was the Shangri-La Dialogue, a high level 3 day regional security conference in Singapore that ended Sunday, June 5th. The military discussions there boiled down to the US trying to gather as many allies as possible under its wings on Chinese borders while the Chinese are saying they are already friendly with their neighbours so, the US military have no choice but to work with China for a “win-win” solution.

There was also an interesting, James Bond type side show to the security conference. Conflicting news reports coming out of Indonesia agree

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