A2A with Pining For the Fjords and Argentus Maximus

Two of TFMetalsreport's independent contributors got together today and had a 3/4 hour conversation about markets, the times we live in, questions from many Turdites and a few things more. They recorded their conversation for this week's A2A podcast.

Here it is ...

Have fun and enjoy our financial banter!

argentus maximus


The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More of the author's work (mostly video) can be found here: RhythmNPrice.


silver66's picture


Looking forward to listening to this discussion


Gramp's picture

2nd! Come in!


Come in!

Hey, have a great  weekend guys and thanks for the discussion! 

gold slut's picture

Great to have your A2A guys

And now to listen...

Blimey, and third as well!

Paging Marchas, Paging Marchas..

Royal Flush's picture


4th? sorry, it was just sitting there. i couldn't resist...Marchas ;;

joeblack's picture

Thanks guys

you should come up with your own music  smiley 

canary's picture

OI (final)

Gold  -17,864

Silver -1,793.

Turd Ferguson's picture

I have a few minutes of wifi access


Instead of drawing attention away from this great thread, I'll simply be adding some thoughts and charts as comments.

Be sure to notice the gold OI numbers listed above from canary. No doubt losing a bunch more today. This is good and A-OK.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Once we get through tomorrow


Once we get through tomorrow and the rest of the June contract expirations next week, expect resistance at the 50-day MA as well as the downtrend arrow from the May 1 highs.

Conversely, we don't want to see gold put on a daily close too far below $1220.

Fred Hayek's picture

There will be a Goldman call for gold that's real

I understand what Pining says when he says that Goldman advising to go long gold should give one apprehension.

But like Alan Greenspan suddenly making shockingly honest statements as an attempt to repair his destroyed reputation, there will be a Goldman call to go long gold which reflects an actual judgement that the price of gold is going to rise.  They will have to have one to point to afterward.  "We called it!  Look at our advice to clients on xxxxxx"

Turd Ferguson's picture



This is The Big Kahuna. This is what it's all about over the next three weeks.

Not sure about the importance of the short-term down arrow but I feel pretty strongly about 95.20.

If the POSX starts to break down through 94 again, that 70,000 contracts of gold OI is going to come screaming back in.

canary's picture

Hawkish like a Bold Eagle

Gold will be tested tomorrow...I expect Yellen to prepare markets for the "hike" in June or July......And then over the long weekend, let's see how the PBOC responds.

Yellen needs to talk up the economy to support the S&P.

Fed wants to look credible...They need to tak in unison...Unless their goal is to promote a"freedom of speech."wink

Turd Ferguson's picture

Watching AG


Really quite astonishing the way that First Majestic has held in there this past week. Though I've sold about half my position, still very encouraged by the action.

Island Teal's picture

Peter Shiff on Fast Money

Yesterday - they didn't really want to hear what he had to say.

The Fed is stuck = Helicopter money on the horizion !!!

murphy's picture

@ AM / P4

Very enjoyable listening to your two way conversation. Although AM's side was a bit hard to grasp at times. 

@AM- Do you have any opinion if the Central/Bullion Banks are hedging their short COMEX contracts with buying the mining stocks since January? 

canary's picture

She will has one more chance to speak...

On Monday, June 6th at 12.30 (World Affair Council of Philadelphia)....after the BLS. It's another, unexpected addition to her calendar (wonder why?).

I wish I don't have to pay much attention what Yellen has to say....Unfortunately the markets do......still do.

AIJ's picture

RE: First Magestic / Great Article Craig

Who wouldn't want to own some of these "precious metals banks"  where  the real money is created.  A no brainer.......

gold slut's picture


Thanks Argentus/Pining, great conversation, a big fat hairy hat-tip to you both.  Sadly Argentus's side was a little hard to hear but that can be sorted for next time hopefully!

Worth another (very close) listen at the week end.

tyberious's picture


One of the biggest drivers for the physical silver price explosion is the panic of industrial users to get heir hands on the physical silver that is necessary to manufacturer their products. Remember, very little silver is used in most silver applications so the price is "inelastic" meaning industrial users will pay almost ANY price to get physical silver.

Before you ask...Yes, Apple Corp. with their $216B in cash will be (or likely has already) started stocking up on physical silver as every iPhone uses a little necessary silver.

But signs of this "industrial panic to buy" in the mainstream media have been sparse in the past - until now...

Miner Sees Silver Price Surging Ninefold as Global Gadgets Boom


A major Japanese electronics maker approached First Majestic Silver Corp. for the first time last month seeking to lock in future stock, a sign of supply concerns that could boost the metal’s price ninefold, according to the best-performing producer of the metal.

“For an electronics manufacturer to come directly to us -- that tells me something is changing in the market,” said Keith Neumeyer, chief executive officer of First Majestic, the top stock in Canada and among its global peers this year. “I think we’ll see three-digit silver,” he said, predicting the metal could surge to $140 an ounce by as early as 2019.


In the end silver at any price may not be available to industrial users for one very simple reason - the economic law that all goods gravitate towards their "Highest and Best Use." For the past 50 years the "Highest and Best Use" of silver has been in Industrial Applications.

When the un-backed fiat monetary system crashes Silver's "highest and Best Use" will change and it will return to being a monetary instrument along with Gold.

Luckily, Industrial users are resourceful and inventive and will eventually build "work-arounds" to deal with silver's lack of availability and cost barriers of obtaining physical silver.

Until then they will bidding "Limit Up" for physical silver to save their companies!

May the Road you choose be the Right Road

Bix Weir


PS - More info on the coming Silver Price Explosion here:

Here's Why $100,000 Silver is a Conservative Estimate


lakedweller2's picture


I understand Avino (ASM) has entered into a contract with Samsung to provide silver directly to them.  This evidently is becoming a common thought among silver users...in essence hedging fiture price and supply.

Wizdum's picture


call for 1900+...does that mean short it?

tfever's picture

Since crimex is manipulated. 

Since crimex is manipulated.  Is there another place look for industry  silver demand  vs supply ?

TF Metals fan's picture

Thanks Argentus & Pining!

Great community where two members can stick their necks out!

One question though: We had a bear market for the past four years and it looks we are turning the corner. Slowly, like a large ship. But we are still turning. And after the jump from its lows in Jan/Feb we are moving sideways. A scenario that has a fair chance is another $200 jump up. The miners will scream higher. In your post you are warning not to chase events looking back at history. But what would you say of the possibility I picture above and you are missing out of a significant gain? Or do you think that it will not move that fast?

tyberious's picture

May 26, 2016 London,

May 26, 2016

London, England

No one likes to pay for insurance.

If you don’t smoke, if you go to the gym regularly, and if you generally eat well, it just might not seem worth it.

Especially when the average cost of insuring against just catastrophic health incidents can take up about 4% of your income.

But most of us do it anyway.

After all, paying small amounts over time feels a lot better than having to write a huge check when you’re at your worst.

It’s become the norm to take out insurance against just about every possibility—

We buy car insurance in case we get into a car wreck.

We buy house insurance in case our house catches on fire.

We buy life insurance in case we die sooner than expected.

However, there’s one huge threat to our livelihoods that very few insure themselves against: financial disaster.

In comparison to your house suddenly bursting into flames, financial panic is far more predictable and frequent.

Given that the average business cycle lasts about 6 years, the average person will see at least 10 recessions in their lifetime.

So while we may not know exactly the day or month that it will hit, we know it’s coming.

And unlike a heart attack, financial crises don’t come out of nowhere. They can be diagnosed ahead of time.

In today’s podcast as I do a physical on the United States’ economy, in which the vitals are showing serious signs of strain and weakness:

  • Incomes have stagnated across the country, accompanied by a major decline in living standards
  • The federal government’s cash balances are so low, that on some days it has less than some private companies
  • Banks have made it a habit of holding very little cash reserves, leaving them vulnerable to any shocks to the system
  • The Treasury has begun blatantly siphoning off funds from the Fed
  • Hundreds of pages of regulations are being passed each day to make you less free
  • The government and central bank are already stealing from you

Join me as I show how the decline in freedom, government bankruptcy, and an insolvent financial system are all related. I also cover several ways that you can insure yourself quickly and easily against all of this.

Listen in here.

Until tomorrow, 


Simon Black

Founder, SovereignMan.com

AGAU's picture

Trump' l thump em!!

zero hedge

Donald Trump will head to the heart of America’s oil and gas boom on Thursday to unveil details of his policies on energy and the environment. As NYTimes reports, speaking at an oil industry conference in Bismarck, N.D., Mr. Trump is expected to embrace standard Republican calls for more fossil fuel drilling and fewer environmental regulations, while possibly elaborating on his positions on climate change. Having vowed to "get those miners back to work," and "get rid of [EPA] in almost every form," this is the first time since becoming the presumptive nominee that Presidential candidate Trump has a platform for a policy speech... we are sure Clintonites will be listening intently

amarula4's picture

Thanks Argentus and Pining, great discussion

it keeps us in the know!

tyberious's picture

Dark Secrets of the

Dark Secrets of the Rockefeller Family

by The Phaser

from strictlyrevolution:

VIDEO: Full 2015 documentary about how the Rockefeller family has become one of the most wealthy and most powerful families on earth.

1. Early life of John D. Rockefeller
This video shows the chronological time-line of the Rockefeller family, starting with how William Avery 'Devil Bill' Rockefeller Sr. (1810-1906) schooled his son John D. Rockefeller (1839-1937) to be a cunning businessman. 'Devil Bill' Rockefeller's son John D. Rockefeller became successful in the commodities trade at a very young age

2. The creation of the biggest oil monopoly in the world.
John D. Rockefeller then decided to seek his fortune elsewhere and moved to Cleveland Ohio, where the oil business began to boom. There he established an oil refinery and gained prosperity through cunning plots, ruthlessness, conspiracy, shady deals and other criminal deeds. John D's. "Standard Oil" company would grow and expand to become the biggest oil monopoly in the world. The Standard Oil monopoly got so big and powerful, that in 1911, the U.S. Supreme Court decided that the oil company violated the US Antitrust Law and that it had to be split up. This created various new successful Rockefeller oil companies, such as Exxon-Mobil (Esso), Chevron Corporation, Texaco and Gulf Oil. Having a positive effect on the stock market, the 1911 Supreme Court decision in effect made the Rockefeller family even more rich and powerful.

The Rockefellers have always had intimate business and family relations with other powerful family dynasties, such as the Morgan banking family, members of the steel magnates of the Carnegie family, the DuPont family and the Rothschild banking families from Europe. The Rockefellers were connected to the Union Pacific Railroad company of E.H. Harriman. They were involved in the sponsorship of the Kuhn & Loeb bank in the United Kingdom and they had numerous business deals with Hitler's Nazi regime in Germany. There were the instrumental force behind the German chemical company I.G. Farben, which built and controlled the concentration camp Auschwitz, situated around the I.G. Farben chemical factory. Rockefeller's Standard Oil patented fuel even powered the entire Nazi air force 'the Luftwaffe'.

3. David Rockefeller in the 20th and 21st century.
During the 20th century David Rockefeller and other descendants of John D. Rockefeller maintained their wealth through banking, oil and expanded their power through politics and think-tanks or other non government organisations (NGOs). David Rockefeller, the oldest member of the Rockefeller family, is one of the founding members of the secretive Bilderberg Group, the Trilateral Commission and the Council on Foreign Relations.

4. The full dominance of the Rockefeller empire
The power of the Rockefeller family is not limited to the oil industry, they control large portions of the banking industry, the central banking system in the US through the Federal Reserve and overseas the European Central Bank. Through Rockefeller-controlled companies, organisations, think-tanks and other NGO's the family created The United Nations, Bilderberg Group, Trilateral Commission, Council on Foreign Relations, Planned Parenthood, the Population Council, the Council of the Americas and the Rockefeller Foundation. Among other Rockefeller companies are: Monsanto, United Airlines, American Airlines, American Railroads, AT&T, Honeywell, Quaker Oats, and AXA Equitable Life Insurance. The estimated combined Rockefeller fortune is so big that it can be expressed in percentages of the entire US economy. The ultimate plan of these international oligarchs is to enslave humanity under a tyrannical one world government, ruled and controlled by them.

tyberious's picture

Largest COMEX Silver Closeout in 20+ Years! -JB Slear

Submitted by JB Slear:

Ending the heavy Silver demands of the May contracts

Today is the last full trading day for May Silver contracts and the Open Interest is still at 576 contracts (2,880,000 ounces), this still the largest closeout amount of contracts I recall seeing in the past 20+ years.

Tomorrow, the May contracts will be closed out with June being the next deliverable month and its OI is at 599 contracts.  June is not a big deliverable month but in contrast it shows how big the closing numbers are for May.  

One day this physical demand will matter,  my hope is we’re at the end of their game and we enter into our multi-year precious metals rally we’ve all been expecting based on solid facts and without the contortions of central bank data .

Remember, the past is history, tomorrow’s a mystery, but today is a gift, that’s why it’s called the present ….. Stay Long and Be Strong!!

P.S., this chart is still the best Cup and Handle Formation Ever!!



argentus maximus's picture

@TF Metals fan : We can have

@TF Metals fan : We can have all the forecasts, all the trading systems, everything we like - but past experience teaches that if we do the wrong thing we will lose our money.

So - buy low - sell high.

I read your post and my eyes glazed over when you said fair chance  .....

How much chance? What percentage probability?

It may happen, and it may not.

If you buy after a rise because it may go higher does that sound like buying low?

The nearest you get is if you buy the low of the weekly consolidation "flag" pattern which is developing.

That's not a major low, it's a medium term low. So now this has become a medium term trade we are discussing.

But are you talking selling in the medium term? Or are you going to look at hourly data? Or go back to the weekly to yearly data that produced a buy at the  end of 2015 lows?

The issues: Timeframe ... risk .... probability of low ... probability of gain ... size of the loss vs size of gain?

So let's go back to basics. Are the public media saying this is a good thing to consider? What are the bad analysts saying? Are you getting wary yet?

Sure it "may" work. But I would need to get in very low to get the percentages working for me instead of my opposition. In other words I need it to cost me less. (Or I'm playing the minute to minute timeframe where the flashy crashy  odds are really bad)

I don't play with loaded dice where the other guy did the loading. By being HIGHLY DISCRIMINATING I can load the dice.

In trading and investing - to choose to wait for a better opportunity is a positive strategy. If I miss a break OK - breaks are like buses -  there will be another one along later.

Now go back and read your post, then play the podcast back and listen carefully to the part where we talked about seasonal tendency. Then weigh the odds. Can it be bought for less than you are presently prepared to pay? And ... what timeframe are you REALLY playing? Can you answer that before making your purchase?

Investing or trading is not an inspiration or  hunch thing. It's a cold calculated pre-set pre-worked pre-tested strategy being implemented when pre-defined circumstances pull the trigger for you.

So you're talking about miners. And I mentioned how they might be 2/3rds of the way to wherever they might be going.  ... 1/3rd up  .... 2/3rds back down...... think percentages ......

Maybe you're right for the short term. But I'm already positioned. When the next purchase point comes along I'll wake up again and begin to sniff for fresh opportunity. A really spiky rise might have me sniffing at selling you some miners before then. How about that? :-)

luvabean's picture


turdites united<3
oh man....this is soooooo cool<3
i am so happy to hear our good men....great backstories...great time....wow...i am gonna' listen twice!!!
this is soooo dang neato! <3 i am smilin' ear to ear!

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