CoT Perspective

Again, there is NO ONE who dislikes the criminal co-conspirators of the CFTC more than yours truly and, of course, the reports they construct may all be total hogwash that's designed to mislead as many as possible. Today, though, let me remind you of the data so that you can make your own, informed decisions.

What prompted this post is two items:

  1. The plethora of "CoT analysis" that's out there
  2. The notion that the CFTC-generated data can't be trusted

Let's attempt to address both of these items...

First and foremost, it's is entirely possible that the data is nothing but a complete joke. JPM was fined in 2014 for repeatedly supplying the CFTC with false and inaccurate data: http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6968-14

Additionally, we know that The Banks are involved in all sorts of OTC and off-books trades, the size and scope of which could dwarf the positions reportedly held on the Comex. So, any positions shown on the Comex may not even be half of the overall picture.

And too many recently-baptized CoT analysts fail to understand both of the points above and take the data as if it's all pristine, precise and all-revealing. It's not.

Now, on the bright side, the CoT is a zero-sum report where the total amount of longs must equal the total amount of shorts. And they do, every week. So, maybe that adds a shred of validity.

And at the end of the day...and as we've maintained here since the beginning...the CoTs are helpful only in a backward-looking and historical sense. If you can line up the historical data with the charts, you can begin to see clear patterns. THIS ALONE IS THE VALUE OF THE COT.

To that end, I thought I'd reprint and update the charts below. First, the recent history of the "Gold Commercial" NET short position. At its highs in 2012, this position grew as large as over 250,000 contracts net short. At its lows in December of last year, the CoT showed a Gold Commercial NET short of just 2,911 contracts and we were quite certain at the time that the number had slid into net long a couple of times intraweek.

Again, though, the primary value of the CoT is in its historical perspective. As you know, its the Gold Cartel Banks that control and manage the gold price on Comex. To that end, you would expect to see them heavily net short at the end of rallies, only to use Spec long liquidation to buy back and cover shorts into bottoms. Is that what you see below?

However, we all know that The Banks are nothing but soulless, godless, lying thieves who are not to be trusted. Therefore, why should we trust the data shown above?

To that end, let's also plot the summary position of the "Small Speculators". These guys are the ultimate outsiders. They read their charts and go with the momentum and their gut...and they are almost always wrong. Also, this data is provided by broker-dealers which are scared shitless of the CFTC and any federal "regulator". As opposed to the protected TBTF Banks, the last thing these B/Ds are going to do is lie and deceive the CFTC. I'm quite confident that they report accurate summaries of their clients' data when called upon to do so.

And what does a chart of the Small Spec positions show? See below:

So, again, you can write this off if you want. It doesn't bother me one bit if you do. My job is simply to make you aware of the historical extreme. Could the report be utter nonsense, fabricated in a Washington DC cubicle by a porno-watching and burrito-eating bureaucrat? Of course! Maybe the whole thing is a simple fabrication. But, if it's not, then you need to be cautious here as history certainly suggests that another "CoT Wash & Rinse Cycle" is pending.

TF

44 Comments

SilverHunter1985's picture

First

cashonly's picture

2

can any of 'their' data be trusted? 

I now realize my entire lifetime belief in FREE MARKET CAPITALISM is nothing more than a sham.   It is all controlled, every dam bit of it including our elections.  I'm not a zombie anymore.   Thanks Turd.

Can't Happen Here's picture

Thurd?

Thurd?

Heck, at this point I'd expect them to try to sell people some "24 Carrot" cake instead of physical PM

Danforth Coxwell's picture

2nd……..

Saving 4th.

ArtL's picture

5

5

litterbox's picture

top 10

number seven

infometron's picture

@slow1boy Re: golden testicles

Not so fast, the story is bogus: http://www.torontosun.com/2015/12/04/canadian-jackpot-winner-died-after-gold-plating-his-manhood-not-so-fast

Presumably this means there is no proof that gold plating our testicles is fatal!

Woohoo!!

LostMind's picture

Top 10

Slow fade into...

What will the High Bitch do this week?

Here's to Lil Marco being drummed out of the race today :)

AIJ's picture

Wash and Rinse is a Sisyphean task

Sis·y·phus

(sĭs′ə-fəs)

n. Greek Mythology

A cruel king of Corinth condemned forever to roll a huge stone up a hill in Hades only to have it roll down again on nearing the top.

This will continue until an outside force free's the poor devil. 

sisyphean photo: Sisyphean Challenge Sisyphus.jpg

cashonly's picture

All you zombies!!!

During the mid to late 1990’s my area continued to see many of the last of our high paying factory jobs leave as well as a rash of church closings and amalgamations, all happening while new malls and eateries were being opened and brand new soovies and pickups flew off the lots.  The financial Sodom and Gomorrah we have witnessed has produced (consumption) ZOMBIES, not sheeple.

All you zombies  by The Hooters 1982

(digest the words, I believe they fit perfectly into our plight)

Holy Moses met the Pharaoh
Yeah, he tried to set him straight
Looked him in the eye,
"Let my people go!"

Holy Moses on the mountain
High above the golden calf
Went to get the Ten Commandments
Yeah, he's just gonna break 'em in half!

All you zombies hide your faces,
All you people in the street,
All you sittin' in high places,
The pieces gonna fall on you

No one ever spoke to Noah,
They all laughed at him instead
Workin' on his ark,
Workin' all by himself

Only Noah saw it comin',
Forty days and forty nights,
Took his sons and daughters with him,
Yeah, they were the Israelites!

All you zombies hide your faces,
All you people in the street,
All you sittin' in high places,
The rain's gonna fall on you

Holy Father, what's the matter?
Where have all your children gone?
Sittin' in the dark,
Livin' all by themselves,
You don't have to hide anymore!

All you zombies show your faces,
All you people in the street,
All you sittin' in high places,
The pieces gonna fall on you!

James Crighton's picture

Thanks Turd ...

this piece ("CoT Perspective") is brilliant in its simplicity. 

jc

ReachWest's picture

Good Stuff

A fantastic summary Turd. The net long/short position charts were particularly enlightening. 

I'm starting to think the Fed raises rates tomorrow. They are just insane enough to do so. I would think that this would in turn pummel the S&P, pummel Gold and levitate the USDX. But - crap - I no longer know squat - the reaction (assuming they raise rates) may be the complete opposite. WTFDIK.

I suppose we don't have much longer to wait..

Turd Ferguson's picture

Thank you

MODERATOR

Hadn't intended to make it public but maybe we will.

Re the "golden nuts" story...Any salesman will tell you, never let the facts get in the way of a good story...and that's a good story!

Response to: Thanks Turd ...
Lintltj5's picture

Worth a look:

Im not sure how old this is, but in light of the thought provoking articles posted yesterday about Americans voting for Trump because they are just sick of the establishment and its garbage, I post this:

http://www.mrctv.org/sites/default/files/embedcache/127748.html

This was also an interesting read:

http://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/2016/April/40/4/magazine/article/10831188/

Blythesshrink's picture

Alternatively, imagine if the

Alternatively, imagine if the Fed is dovish how under water the commercials' positions are going to be, at least based on the data we're allowed to see.

either way, i'm definitely not going to try and trade this right now, but will stack if we get a meaningful correction.

Boatboy's picture

Make It Public

Turd - Make it Public, it was such a great explanation that even I can understand the Wash and Rinse Cycle now! This very clear and concise post should be Public

gazzmann's picture

RE: Golden Nuts

If you're going to gold plate your balls.....you must have big ones. Maybe that's where the last of Canada's gold went.

Basil's picture

Kirby prediction

In my honest opinion, Rob Kirby's prediction that some event within the next two weeks will result in skyrocketing PM prices is misguided.

And this is a pity, because I would really love for it to be true.

However, let's just have a quick look at the cold hard logic of this.  Kirby is asking us to accept that he is party to some secret information that will make PM prices explode in the very near future, and that there are  sic  "admissions coming"  and "huge fines" coming. Really ? Mmmm.  I have a question :

If this knowledge is so secret  then why is he basically telling the world ???  Admittedly he has  stopped short of actually revealing his source, but nonetheless,  if the  "bad guys" weren't aware of the issue before, they certainly are now !  And note that prices haven't exactly "exploded" as a result , in fact more like the opposite has occurred.  It would be common sense to expect PM prices to surge  as soon as the merest whisper of such an event became public knowledge, but that clearly hasn't happened.

As we know, there are plenty of gullible people in this world,  and there is always a strong  psychological temptation to simply believe what we want to believe.  Most of us, myself included, would love for this story to unfold as Kirby has predicted, but in doing so we would only be fooling ourselves.

Unfortunately, as a result of this there will be a number of misguided individuals who, following Kirby's prediction,  will be piling into mining stocks and PM futures and options, confident of reaping huge rewards in the very near future.  I strongly suggest any such individuals tread very carefully indeed.

Kirby claims that this event will take place "this week" or "next week".  Let's be generous and give him a third week too, until Monday 3rd April, and then let us review whether this explosive event has taken place or not.

In the meantime, here are  my own 3 predictions :  

1.       Any such "explosive" event is exceedingly unlikely to happen within this timeframe.   

2.       Excuses will emerge from  the PM world  to "explain" why the event has NOT occurred. Possibilities include :  "It's taking a little longer than  predicted"  and/or  "The release of the information has been suppressed  by the Cartel because of the disruptive effect it would have on the market."   Many will be satisfied with this explanation. They shouldn't be.

3.       Within a few months, the vast majority of people will forget that the prediction was ever made.  It's only predictions that come true that are remembered - if only because the person who made the prediction usually ensures that everyone is reminded on a regular basis !

uchiki's picture

COT Perspective typo

Craig,

I'm sure most people would work it out, but it looks like there's a typo in the paragraph before the first chart

"To that end, you would expect to see them heavily net long  at the end of rallies,"

should be

"To that end, you would expect to see them heavily net SHORT at the end of rallies,"

Barfly's picture

@Basil...

Solid thinking. The disinformation has been thick these last few years and it casts doubt on any prognostication of imminent collapse of the house of cards. This does, however, benefit the big players because it would allow them to position themselves on the right side of the trade before the uninformed would be taggers along could follow them. I hope Rob is right, as well. But if he isn't because some "source" has played him for a fool, I won't be surprised. I will be sorry he fell for it, because I think he's a stand up guy. When all the information is suspect, it is impossible to predict the final shoe dropping. But, with the cacophony being so loud, it must be close. The only thing to do is keep stacking.

H8Fiat's picture

Re: Kirby prediction

Hope I'm wrong, but ...

  • "buyers of size"
  • ABX
  • Currency devalue
  • Every standing month the "registered amount" vs "contracts standing"
  • Sky is falling du jour
  • No "rule of law"

The list is just too long to get hopes up.  We're muppets.

Ripon2013's picture

overheard near Bill's desk today

LostMind's picture

IMF SDR: An Emerging Global Currency? - Must See Video

http://lonestarwhitehouse.blogspot.com/2016/03/imf-sdr-emerging-global-currency-must.html

passing this along from Rickards...

Very interesting video, very informative.

Why all of this crap is held in Chicago?!?!

California Lawyer's picture

@Cashonly

Great insight.  That is a compelling song to listen to.

I remember hearing the Hooters back in Kansas in the 1980's.  I liked them so much I went to see them and Bryan Adams in Lawrence, Kansas, I believe, or it may have even been somewhere in KC, Kansas.  I was stationed at Ft. Riley at the time.

One of my all time favorite concerts.

The other favorite was AC/DC.  

If only DPH didn't go off the deep end, he would pop up with a video right quick . . .

Anyhow, I am holding out for silver to drop into the 14's again.  Silver is NOT acting normally.  It should have been hit hard, and dropped well below 15, into a 14 handle.  Something is strange, and smells different about this gold smash that has NOT taken silver down with it.

I'm watching intently.

I want to pick up some monster boxes when silver does hit 14, again.  Best bottom pick was getting some at 13.  I think the DCA is now maybe in the 20's for me, so there is still hope that before too long I may even look like a sage to all the normalcy-bias infected fiat-worshiping Hildabeast voters.  

infometron's picture

Remember "V" and "W''?

And their wild eyed predictions from the Summer of 2014 regarding silver exploding in the Fall of 2014? Total bullshit... sucked me into a brutal bull trap, took me over a year to recover... I give Kirby much more cred, but I'm from Missouri now!

Barfly's picture

But my favorite

Is by far Agent Andy. He's been wrong so consistently that every time he speaks now, I'm certain it's bullshit.

SS121's picture

if i were the bros. . .

and if i were planning to finally execute the USD/Fx/"gold" thing...

i would provide respected members of the Controlled Opposition with generic event information before the event

this would further validate the CO's false notion that the chart data is legit and create another useful idiot for future use.

of course, when/if the sensational "system is legit" predictions fail to manifest... only the messenger is discredited.  the bros. win either way

Dyna mo hum's picture

HOW CAN THIS BE...

Turd Ferguson's picture

Thanks for the heads up

MODERATOR

Always appreciate the help.

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