Guest Post: "Gold -- It's Time To Pay Attention", by Mike Krieger of LibertyBlitzkrieg

I've gotten to know Mike over the years so I consider him a friend. Though his primary focus now is documenting the loss of civil liberties and the advancing tyranny of government and central planners, he's still an excellent financial analyst. Therefore, this piece he published yesterday regarding gold should definitely merit your attention.

GOLD – It’s Time to Pay Attention

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The last time I shared my thoughts on gold, a subject I had previously wrote about constantly, was all the way back in July of last year. That post was titled, 4 Mainstream Media Articles Mocking Gold That Should Make You Think. Here’s an excerpt:

There are many reasons why I stopped commenting on markets, but the main reason is that I started to recognize I wasn’t getting it right. In fact, in some cases I was getting it spectacularly wrong. Whenever this happens, I try to isolate the problem and fix it. In this case there was no fix, because much of why I was no longer getting it right was rooted in the fact that my heart, soul and passion had moved onto other things. My interests had expanded, and I started a blog to express myself on myriad other matters I deemed important. Providing relevant market information needs intense focus, and my focus had shifted elsewhere. I recognized that I wasn’t intellectually interested enough in centrally planned markets to provide insightful analysis, and so I stopped.

Years ago, Martin Armstrong was saying that nothing goes up in a straight line and that gold would experience a severe correction before beginning its real bull market. We are seeing his prediction unfold before our very eyes. What he also said is that as gold approached the $1,000 per/oz mark or even below, everyone would proclaim that “gold is dead” and start making comically bearish statements. In a nutshell, negative sentiment would plunge to levels not seen in years, if not more than a decade. We are starting to see this now.

I didn’t write this article to “call the bottom in gold” or anything like that. I merely want to flag these four articles due to the hyperbolic nature of some of the statements made (they are exhibiting pretty much exactly the same behavior as the gold bugs they mock do). I do think that something is happening on the sentiment front that warrants we are closer to the bottom than the mid-stages of a bear market.

Fast forward six months, and gold has been more or less flat. Nevertheless, a lot has changed in the interim and it’s time for an update. Specifically, the multi-year fundamental outlook has turned far more bullish, while sentiment remains depressed. Yesterday, following multiple back-to-back  messages about gold on Twitter, someone asked me for my bullish thesis, I wrote:

But there’s more to it. A lot more. First, let’s look at the improved fundamentals. Gold bugs will exasperatingly proclaim that fundamentals have been great for the past four years yet the price plunged anyway, so who cares about fundamentals? To this I would respond with two observations. First, large institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds have been anticipating a rate hike cycle for a very long time now. They didn’t know when, but they expected it. The fact that the gold bugs never believed this is irrelevant; what matters is that big money believed it, and it was perceived to be very gold negative. In their minds, this anticipated rate hike cycle would confirm that things were getting back to normal, and if things are normal you don’t need to own gold, right?

The problem is that this assumption is quickly being called into question. Sure the Fed hiked rates once, but it is starting to look more and more like a policy error. Meanwhile, other major central banks around the world are going in the opposite direction, toward negative rates. I am a huge believer in market psychology, and the psychology dominating the minds of most institutional investors over the past few years has been that things were slowly getting back to normal. This has weighed on institutional demand for gold in a big way, and been a meaningful factor in the bear market (manipulation aside). If this psychology shifts, the shift back into gold could be very meaningful.

While that backdrop is interesting in its own right, what may make the move into gold that much more explosive is the lack of alternative investments. Let me explain.

Very wealthy people in the Western world do not like gold. In fact, if you talk to them, most will sneer at you with a combination of disgust and bewilderment at the mere suggestion of buying physical gold. These people will scour the planet for every and any alternative they can find before buying any gold, and this bias has been evident globally over the past few years. We have seen mansion prices and luxury real estate generally soar to unforeseen heights across the globe, and we have seen tremendous bull markets in equities. Similarly, competing “safe haven assets” such as sovereign bonds have rallied to the point many of them offer negative returns. Specifically, the FT just noted that negative yielding bonds now account for one-quarter of the entire government bond universe. Think about that for a second.

So what we are looking at is a far stronger fundamental backdrop for gold, coupled with an investment landscape in which almost all the alternatives look overpriced and unattractive. While wealthy Westerners will be dragged into the next gold bull market kicking and screaming, dragged into it they will be. They may not like gold, but they like losing money even less. This will create the buying power so desperately needed for a new gold bull to catch fire, and many people will be caught off guard. Personally, I think a new bull market in precious metals will be birthed with the next 12-months, and it’ll be a big one. 

*Note: I think it is beyond obvious that all financial markets, particularly precious metals, are actively manipulated by Central Banks around the world. Recognition of this fact does not help one determine when the psychology of markets and related price action will change, which is why it was not addressed in this article.

Finally, in case you missed it the first time around, you should check out the July 2015 article: 4 Mainstream Media Articles Mocking Gold That Should Make You Think.

In Liberty,
Michael Krieger

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Lintltj5's picture



Btw, I think yesterday was a nice little shot in the arm for morale. 

The mood here over the past few months has been noticeably more sour and snippy than I can remember since Ive been here. Noticeable, but not overwhelming.  It is understandable given the state of economic/political/social affairs and the complete denial of reality. Keep stacking and stay positive. Good things come to those who wait.

tyberious's picture



legacyelectric's picture


Come on Charlie: I left 4th for ;you

Turd Ferguson's picture

Taking Charlie's spot


Vault subscribers, please be sure to check yesterday's podcast thread for a whole bunch of comments and charts on today's action.

abguy4's picture

Much appreciated

That short article is filled with Honest soul searching, not just left-brain analysis.

Much appreciated at this time when we all need a little hand-holding, and dare I say commiseration.

tyberious's picture


We are in a very scary time in the process of taking down the Bad Guys as it involves taking down the entire Global Monetary System. It's the only way to level the playing field. The only way to make sure that the Bad Guys are dead and gone.

It's the only way.

But there is a plan to restart the system and includes returning to a gold/silver standard in the US. The US Minted gold and silver coins are all ready to be distributed to the public based on a "fair" allocation methodology invented by Alan Greenspan. This allocation system is based mainly off your Social Security balances but factors in other important variables so everyone will get enough to "start again."

Just look at the pictures in this Federal Reserve Bank of Boston publication and you will see for yourself what they have planned (watch for gold coins!)

Banking Basics

This publication was posted on the very same day as the Road to Roota materials from the Fed Boston.

I have posted my latest Friday Road Trip for Private Road Members here:

Marchas45's picture

That's It !!!!!!!! Turd

I want my Fiat back. You shouldn't be competing with your Turdites. Lol  Keep Stacking

Angry Chef's picture

Russia Accepts Yuan Is Now China's Biggest Oil Partner

This is an item that has flow under the radar in the MSM. Not so much here in Turdville where many astute observer resides.

Goodbye Petrodollar: Russia Accepts Yuan, Is Now China's Biggest Oil Partner

I'm trying to put the pieces together. We had Rob Kirby come out and say in recent interviews that over a trillion dollars of US Treasuries have been sent back to the Fed for redemption. But no change recently in the dollar other than it initially strengthened. Rob K. surmises that only the ETF could have absorbed this much cash. We observe Douche Bank and Glencore melting down. Now I ask how much exposure do the TBTF Banks have to these entities and what does their OTC Derivative book look like ? We also got word that Credit Suisse is heading into the toilet. We have record low inventories at the COMEX if we're to believe the COT reports. And what about the shale and oil Junk Bonds melting away as well ? But most importantly from my perspective is the article above.

With seemingly everything burning all around us. Doesn't Russia and China agreeing to accept Yuan spell the end of the petrodollar standard ?

Turd Ferguson's picture

And this was fun

Angry Chef's picture

Does Anybody Know Where I Could Find an Article...

Referencing the trillion dollars US Treasury sent back for redemption over the last 18 months that Rob Kirby has spoken of recently ?

Verus nemo's picture

@Angry Chef

The "article" you're looking for is actually an interview----two, actually----that Kirby has recently been on.

It was first in a interview a little over a week ago now when Kirby flat out stated that he believed that the U.S. Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) was the only entity large and dark enough to soak up and take off the books the incoming, sold Treasuries without their sales to ESF affecting the yields. Since that interview, Kirby has reiterated his assertion elsewhere in an interview (I cannot recall now where, but more recently) and even Jim Willie now is subscribing to Kirby's assertion.

Check out for Sean's interview of Rob Kirby sometime in the previous 10 days.

tyberious's picture

Indian Silver Imports Top

Angry Chef's picture

Versus Nemo

Thanks for the input. I found the article that triggered the Kirby thought process that he spoke about in his last few interviews. It was Hugo Salina Price that brought it up.


Sometimes I find you have to click the link twice.

SE's picture

Home Depot Hiring

I was told by my neighbor today that HD is hiring 80,000 people.  Why are they hiring people at the end of the oil boom that we had?  My childhood town, where the fracking took place, is almost a ghost town compared to a year ago...  Who is paying the contractors to continue to build these houses?  Is this housing boom V. 2.0?

SE's picture

Indian Silver Imports

Indian Silver Imports Top 7400 Tonnes in 2015, a Record


It looks like my message to Indians went through.  I've posted this from time to time:


Given my unique position as an "other" person within my own country, I'm able to stretch myself out into directions that most people would never go.  I did underground financial research for many years, and I still do a limited amount of reading to that end 10 years later. ( I since then left the rest of it to focus on my work with Rajivji and staff)

You know, you mention one of the things that make institutions powerful, and that is money, grants, scholarships, fellowships, all the sources that make the power of western institutions manifest.  Without the US Dollar's hegemony, these institutions don't go anywhere, no?  To give you an idea of what I'm hinting at, I first stumbled across a series of VERY IMPORTANT articles about India's culture around eight years ago, and I had a brief discussion with the author of these articles.

Go to each of these articles and do not click on Part 2 and Part 3 links, as they don't work.

The point of these articles is to clue you into a POTENT weapon that you have as a person of Indic ancestry.  The fact is, Western society does not use, or even believe in gold and silver as money, only the Western people clearly not in positions of power, and that is a very tiny minority, especially in the US.  The fact is, according to two documents, namely, 1) a government report that shows clearly the export tonnage of gold from the US starting in the very early 90s and 2) another report that shows MINING tonnage of gold produced and refined in the US during those given years.  This adds up to a supply deficit of around 5,500 TONS of gold in the last 20+ years.  Here, you just have to ask, "Where did the gold come from, if not from the mines?"  The US government has to have some gold somewhere, right?  Well, the official gold reserves of the US has been held at around 8,300 tons.  Don't forget that we have held gold for other countries for "safe keeping" in light of World War II.

Now, what we here are observing is a shift in wealth from the West to the East, and India is one of the beneficiaries (the gold import duties haven't helped all that much with the gold smuggling, has it?), alongside China, Russia, and other countries with a cultural affinity for gold (Russia - mainly their Central Bank realizes what's going on and want to get their gold before the scramble for it goes global).  If you can communicate this with your people and realize the opportunity of turning the tables on Western powers economically, then one of the first things to fall would be education, and you would be able to blunt the reach of the Western scholars, ESPECIALLY Wendy's Children.  I completely despise them, because here I am, like a tiny bug just hiding from them so they don't see me and try to quash me as a nuisance.  I digress...  My point is, get everyone to buy up all the gold they can afford, especially out of the COMEX futures market so that there is NO MORE gold available to be traded on the futures market, and the Financial Mob of the Western world can no longer be involved in it.  I see the influence of Sound Money of gold cultures from outside the US nearly every time I go into a motel or a hotel around the country; most likely, the people owning/running them are of Eastern heritage.  All the while that Americans are pawning their family jewelry at "We Buy Gold" shops after seeing people holding such signs up and down the streets for such shops, because they have to make ends meet, Indians and Chinese are buying up the gold hand-over-fist.

Now, you might be asking, "Why in the world would I, a white person, want to put my own civilization at a disadvantage by revealing such strategic information???"  Simply because my government is completely out of control.  I did not vote for ANY of the people who came to power in the Executive and Legislative branches of our government since 2000, just before I started waking up and realized what was going on.  Thusly, the financial behaviors of our government since 2000, I did not authorize.  If you are able to get the world to bring the US government to its knees financially, then maybe we can start to do something about its imperial behaviors around the world (which I do NOT approve of and did not authorize with my vote), and that includes the destruction of the culture, the way of life of your people.  I do not want to see Dharmic society to go away, whether or not I would ultimately benefit from it in my ongoing research into whether Dharmic principles are a match for my deaf Ancient ways.  Already, it has opened my eyes into alternate ways of seeing things and into languages (Hindi and Sanskrit) that are very different from Western languages.

So, think about how we might maximize the effect of this knowledge.  It’s a white elephant standing in the room.


We're going to do this, and put Westerners in their proper place...

Dr Jerome's picture

housing boom?

Banks are happy to lend, so the sheep think the economy is OK. They are buying new houses, building on rooms with lines of credit.  As long as the banks hand out loans, the building will continue. Besides, anyone who says the economy is not OK is "peddling fiction" according to the POTUS.

andrewbyrd's picture


The economy isn't as bad as many here believe. There are pockets in the country that have phenomenal growth, especially in new home construction, mostly high end. It's very confusing to say the least. 

tyberious's picture


Do you work for NAR?

andrewbyrd's picture

Have no idea what nar is. I

Have no idea what nar is. I work for myself though.

tyberious's picture


I was poking fun at the rosy outlook presented for real estate buy the National Association of Realtors.

I prefer the NRA though.

Safety Dan's picture

Burns Oregon.NEW-MUST

Burns Oregon.NEW-MUST WATCH-LaVoy Finicum takedown - shot by shot -Best Proof EVER!

Swineflogger's picture


Serious party foul on two counts!  Taking Marchas' golden fourth spot and then counting yourself as if you were a paying mortal!  Rude!!

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