Mental Preparation

For everyone's sake, since ole Turd is "wrong 99% of the time", hopefully we'll be wrong again about what's likely coming later this week. If, however, this is one of those 1% deals, you should be sure to prepare yourself now while everything is nice and quiet.

Again, the primary issue is the degree to which The Cartel Banks have gone to cap and stall this latest rally. This morning, consider just this data for gold:


8/4/15         $1091                  +29,000                                   -15,080                                              -14,820

10/20/15     $1177                   +151,301                                   +11,999                                             -163,300

At the previous two price peaks for 2015, the Gold Cartel net short position peaked at 132,334 contracts on May 19 and 206,160 on January 27.

And now here's the data for silver:


8/4/15        $14.60                 +8,405                                               1.14:1                                                       -13,756

10/20/15    $15.92                 +57,298                                            3.59:1                                                       -66,800

At the previous two price peaks for 2015, the Silver Cartel net short position peaked at 62,485 contracts on May 19 and 61,593 on January 27.

So, anyway, it doesn't take a MENSA member to decipher the pattern here.

  1. When prices are low, the upside risk is borne by The Specs. As prices rally, the risk is transferred to The Banks.
  2. The Banks cap and stall price while they wait for the buying momentum to exhaust itself.
  3. As price falls, The Banks buy/cover their positions at a profit while transferring the risk of being short back to the Specs.

The previous two occurrences in 2015 where Cartel net positions reached these extremes saw huge selloffs magically materialize in the days that followed.

The January rally in gold peaked at $1308 on January 22 and price then fell to a low of $1141 on March 17. The rally that followed peaked at $1232 on May 18 and then price fell to a low of $1072 on July 24.

The January rally in silver peaked at $18.49 on January 26 and price then fell to a low of $15.27 on March 11. The rally that followed peaked at $17.85 on May 18 and then price fell to a low of $13.95 on August 26.

So, does this mean that another paper price collapse is imminent. Yes, of course it does. All the "market" needs is a little shove in order to start the mass exodus of all the Spec longs. There are two events later this week that are likely to provide the necessary impetus for the next Spec long rout:

  1. The FOMC "fedlines" of Wednesday. These will be released at 2:00 pm EDT. Could there be a slight change of jawboning language? Enough to send LIESman over the edge with the signal that "a rate hike is imminent for December"?
  2. The first estimate of US Q3 GDP. This will be released at 8:30 EDT on Thursday. Though the Atlanta Fed GDPnow is still showing just +0.9% for Q3, could an upside "surprise" send LIESman over the edge with the signal that "a rate hike is imminent for December"?

Either way, I think you get the point. About the only way I can see this selloff NOT materializing is if ole Turd buys a put or two in anticipation. If he does, you can be assured that the precious metals will plow higher, instead. Perhaps he should "take one for the team" and buy some puts simply for the benefit and sanity of everyone else? I'll keep you posted.



4 oz's picture

(No subject)

arch stanton's picture


second that

Keg's picture

@4 oz

If it were only that easy.

Turd Ferguson's picture

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Danforth Coxwell's picture

I get the feeling....

that anything can and will happen this week.

TF Metals fan's picture

chip in


When your put will guarantee a price rise in gold you may write off an extra annual subscription amount from my account. You do not have to commit to a percentage, just  rise at the end of this week.

Also: it is full moon. There are often strange things happening......

Turd Ferguson's picture

Was just sent this by email


And thought it looked interesting UNTIL I saw that the fund's custodian is JPM. No thanks...

Turd Ferguson's picture

Believe me, nothing would make me happier


And it sucks to sit here, expecting prices to fall. No fun at all. But it is what it is and I have a job to do.

IF silver can hang in here until Wednesday and IF total OI holds/gains as well, I just might be dragged kicking and screaming into The Casino. Everyone else just needs to (mentally) prepare accordingly.

Response to: chip in
CPE's picture


Yep, I researched that when it came out a number of months back.  Merk had to kowtow to the Morgue to get his ETF to work.  Without Authorized Participants, ETFs don't work.

A fool and his money are easily parted.

braincramps's picture

Nat Gas almost 10% off

Anyone know what gives?

ReachWest's picture


If Turd purchasing some puts is what's required to goose the PM prices higher - then, I'm all for it.

Buy those puts, Turd. 

Kidding aside: I am now mentally prepared. Bring it on JPM et al.

Turd Ferguson's picture

New GaryC

Turd Ferguson's picture

I hear ya, Reach


I've built up some cash again in my PP account so I'm waiting to buy another ounce of AU. Would rather pay $1100 than $1200...

Response to: Puts
heathbr's picture


This time it really will be differentsurprise Can't help but think the DXY won't sell off a bit from here

Turd Ferguson's picture

To that end and as we've been watching...


...crude is reaching a rather critical juncture, too.

Again, consider this in the context of Wednesday. Some verbiage change or even a surprise 12.5 basis point FF rate hike could unleash another nasty surge of disinflation/deflation bias.

joeblack's picture

Craig taking one for the team...

...this player wants to buy at lower prices.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Dec15 silver 200-day at


Dec15 silver 200-day at $16.03. IF silver has the audacity to tap that level before 2:00 pm Wednesday, I'll take a go at it for everyone's sake. Maybe some $35 puts in the AGQ?

tyberious's picture

Gold & Silver Report - Mike Maloney

ArtL's picture


I've been listening to the HardCore History series by Dan Carlin.

I sometimes wonder who will write the history of the end of the life of the USD, and when that history will be written I wonder if there things happening behind the scenes that have not been mentioned by Turd, Willie or Schiff (and others) that would be good to know about?

AGAU's picture

Mentally prepared

KY jelly   -                    Check

Assuming Position --  Check

Cash ready for more stackin  --    check

Giveashit meter at zero   ---- Check

Lemming's picture

No Worries Turd

I just bought a batch of AGQ Dec 40 Puts. This gets you off the hook & will insure that silver rockets up through $16 and never looks back! So if you are long, please send donations to me at the poor house.............

Paganini's picture

Who are those "Spec longs"?

After all these years, I still don't understand. If the game is so evidently rigged, who would hazard to play it on the losing side over and over again? 

Turd Ferguson's picture

mainly these


Hedge funds. Managed money funds. Technical trading funds. Individual accounts.

ArtL's picture

Silver on sale today?

is this another sign that the price of silver will be smashed soon?

here's one from Apmex

heathbr's picture

Options Update

Short Term weekly SLV options contracts are implying a move up as opposed to a move down, I purchased an Option Strangle to catch a move in either direction as the vol is very low today. Will update when the position is closedyes

Edit: This is my first time using this option strategy

canary's picture

If not this week...there're still numbers 3 and 4 next week

3. Nov 3rd deadline for raising the debt ceiling,

4. Nov 6th Payroll.

There is always something....What day is Jamie Dimon's birthday?

Paganini's picture

Thanks, Craig. Sorry, this is

Thanks, Craig.

Sorry, this is another naive question, but how do those funds make money? How is it that those professionals cannot see the manipulation? I know that there are individuals who keep on gambling even though the house always wins in the end, but how do the professional managers of those funds keep their jobs if they consistently lose?

CPE's picture

My guess

I think Jamie was born on June 6th, 1966 at 6:06 AM

Oh, and I think he digested his twin before venturing out into the world looking for more flesh.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Not a lot of Facebook users here


But this is important nonetheless:

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