Blue Monday

Blue Monday, not Black Monday, as U.S. equities are "only" off 4% as I type. Nice to see the complete panic in the eyes of the stockroaches for once, though.

What an overnight and morning we've had! China was down 8%. U.S. equity futures had to be temporarily halted a few times to slow the panic. Once the NYSE finally opened, I saw it down as many at 1080 points before it bounced. And, it was so bad that I actually heard Bob Pissonme say that a close down only 600 "would be a victory".

All the while, my stack just gets getting shinier and shinier...

Things are moving fast, so, please bear with me as we go along. At present, I have the DJIA down 415...I think. I say "I think" because things are moving so fast, that quotes are delayed and neither my computer nor phone can seem to keep up. The 10-year note os at 1.92% and The Long Bond is all the way down to 2.64% Crude saw a low a few hours ago of $37.78 and all of the other commodities are down.

This is global disinflation bias overload leading to general liquidations. Gold is mostly flat, though volatile, and silver has been down as much as 4%. However, it DID find a bid near the same level it bottomed last Tuesday and it has since rebounded back over $15.

Again, things are moving so quickly that there's not much time for analysis. Just a recap and some support lines. We'll get more into the big picture stuff during today's podcast.

Gold is $1160 as I type and unchanged on the day. It has been as high as $1169 and as low as $1152. If a big liquidation hits, look first for some support near $1130 and then again at $1105. Resistance remains at $1170 and then $1180.

And now the Dow is down 444....

Silver fell sharply as an industrial metal again today, at one point down over 4% at a low of $14.56. It has since recovered with the other commodities as I have a last of exactly $15. Keep watching the $14.60-$14.85 area as support and look for a bounce soon as a monetary metal, instead.

Through the carnage today, the primary item of particular importance for all of us in Turdville is the HUGE rally in the yen today. Though down from its panic highs, the yen is still UP almost 3% versus The Pig. As mentioned late Friday, this is very, very significant for a number of reasons. On the chart below, note that the yen has now broken the 3-year downtrend from October 2012...this was when QE3 began and gold also began it odd, counter-intuitive move down. As we've discussed ad nauseam, this gold--yen link drove the hedgies and trading funds to do a lot of the daily dirty work for The Banks as gold prices we're driven repeatedly lower, following the yen down.

That the yen has broken this downtrend tells you one very important thing that NO ONE is yet discussing...QE4 is coming!!! And with it, a total loss in all credibility in The Fed. The yen fell for three years as "the market" figured the BoJ and the ECB were the only central banks that were going to keep the QE machine going. The USDJPY is now telling you that it's all over. There will be no rate hikes. There will be no "normalization". THIS IS A HUGE DEVELOPMENT/CHANGE. Again, more on this in today's podcast.

And now the Dow is down 480...

By breaking back above 1.140, the euro is confirming this, too. Again, think about the incredible significance of this. Gold has been smashed for three years in dollar terms because of "the market's" perception that QE is over and that The Fed was moving to taper and end QE and then normalize rates...and, as we've known all was all complete BS! They were NEVER going to raise rates because they can't. And now, the yen and the euro are finally beginning to understand this. IT IS NOW SIMPLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE PAPER GOLD AND SILVER REFLECT THIS REALITY AS WELL.

And unless The DJIA recovers about 1000 points before Friday and the end of the month, the S&P is doomed to a major drop in the months ahead. After a dead cat bounce, likely back toward 2000 in the S&P, the target will become 1,500 at a minimum. That's a 25% drop that the stockroaches will have to eat and it will sure be entertaining to listen to all of the wailing and grinding of teeth as it happens. For now, the DJIA is still off 485 as I type.




Chord's picture



Last week I bought a bit of 90% but I also ordered some

50lb. bags of rice and beans, and more Gamma Seal Lids.

Just like the shiny, I will feel much better when they are safely in my hands.

I consider it to be Spread Stacking.

Do it till it hurts.

valvend's picture

Maybe I am 2nd

Maybe I am 2nd?

CPE's picture



Dr Jerome's picture

All clear!

Hey everybody. It's all OK now. You can relax. The markets are fixed. I know I am breathing a sigh of relief.
Anybody got any good stock tips? APPL or something?

Marchas45's picture


Missed my 4th

tread_w_care's picture

Nowhere else will you find . . .

The critically important USDJPY analysis. Turd, you rock man, thank you again for all you do for us.

We all know (from how many years here now?) raising rates ain't never gonna happen. It is interesting to see how, specifically, that is validated by "reality" and "events".

Keep the faith Turdites.

Turd Ferguson's picture


silver66's picture

Dr J

forget Appl, go for Ford and Best Buy, things are so good we are all going shopping tomorrow....sigh :-)

thanks for the post Turd


Lugnut's picture

Yes, I agree

Yes, Turd, it is good to see the panic in the eyes of the stockroaches. Best viewing experience of financial TV in the AM in a long while.

Turd Ferguson's picture



Could this be The Mother Of All "V" Reversals???

Golden Turtle's picture

Holy shit!

New realization! If gold drops here it's because the contracts are worthless!!! Holy snap! The paper-phys price is about to go completely opposite. This is it! The paper is worthless and the paper price of gold and silver are about to crash! markets down 3%! Dollar down 2-3% and gold down would only mean that all paper has crashed. If true.

Golden Turtle's picture

Holy shit!

New realization! If gold drops here it's because the contracts are worthless!!! Holy snap! The paper-phys price is about to go completely opposite. This is it! The paper is worthless and the paper price of gold and silver are about to crash! markets down 3%! Dollar down 2-3% and gold down would only mean that all paper has crashed. If true. Watch closely at yuan/gold and dollar/gold price and if they diverge it's true. Dollar gold will go down because the futures paper is worthless.

wildstylechef's picture

WORD IS .......

This is the bottom and we will go up from here (aka the stock market)


gold well to the moon alice




Fred Hayek's picture

Repeating this from another thread, bought silver this a.m.

I just bought some silver at the modest scale in which I can.  I spoke to Kathie at Miles Franklin.  My first impulse was to buy silver buffalo rounds.  They're cheaper and I thought they would be more available than silver eagles.  She told me that the silver buffalo rounds have a 7 week waiting period.  Silver eagles are at a 1 week waiting period right now.  I said that I would have thought it would be the opposite.  She said that they think the mints that supply the silver eagles are running 24/7. 

Caveat emptor.

Docdhj's picture

Bill Holter on Operation Freedom

Bill Holter from last evenings Operation Freedom....

CPE's picture


ETF's are only as good as the ability of the delta one trading desks for authorized participants and the markets ability to stay liquid.

If you want a warning on what can happen when you own RSP, or other ETFs that simply track stocks (other non-stock ETF's are much worse), which is the S&P500 Equal Weight Index then check out today's intraday-day activity.

RSP was down by nearly HALF today!  The index was down 6 or 7%.  It was halted a bunch of times trying to bid back to par with the underlying.

ETFs cannot be more liquid than their underlying components and are often much less so.

Barfly's picture

Locked in

Silver this morning at $14.75. Wholesaler said he is expecting to book sales on well over 1 Million ounces today. There is a three week backlog on refinery production. They are stamping product 24/7. There is apparently still plenty of raw silver to refine. I went with generic rounds even though ASEs were immediately available. The Rounds had a 6% premium (which is higher than normal) but the ASE's were over 20%!

Happy stacking!

nadgeskaul's picture

Unreal Reversal

I don't believe words can describe this.

ES off the lows by 110 points.

DOW off the low by 800 points.

Nasdaq off the low by 160 points.

In 3.5 hours!

I mean, am I dreaming here?  What the hell is going on?

CPE's picture


The ESF just showed the Chinese how it's done.

We win!  Except China has both the gold and the cash...

Mickey's picture

the reversal is flattening out at minus 200

I said it last night--the Fed wil do what it has to do to mve the market back up

Eventually it all collapses because we know the rise is BS.

and eventually the  Fed tank will be empty

Turd Ferguson's picture

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tyberious's picture

Theory On China’s Gold

Wingy's picture

Re: Unreal Reversal

Nadgeskaul, did you think the PPT would be asleep on a day like today? I'd love to know how much it cost us taxpayers to provide the illusion of stability in our "markets" this morning. I would guess 10 or 11 figures at least. Oh well, it our kids who have to pay it back...

Golden Turtle's picture

Gold about to get crushed!

All paper gold get out now! Look at the head and shoulders! It's through! 5% down!

Antony von Clearwell's picture

I thought that silver would boom...


Turd Ferguson's picture

This is priceless


No further comment necessary.

infometron's picture


Bill Holter interviewed by Dave Janda:

Dave: Bill, how much gold do we have?

Bill: 100,000 tons

In what followed it was clear that what Bill meant to say was 1,000 tons...

Still, being out by two orders of magnitude!? Yikes!

Golden Turtle's picture

Get out!

get out of paper gold and silver! 

Turd Ferguson's picture

Patience grasshoppah


Give this a few days/weeks. Once the market finally fully realizes that QE∞ is going to resume and is the only option, the "boom" you seek will appear.

realitybiter's picture

Take a gander at the nasdaq 2000

reversal first week of April....on Tuesday, April 5, 2000 the nasdaq traded from 4240 down to 3650, then rallied 500 points, all in a day....finished the week higher. By Wednesday the next week the previous lows were taken, by Friday 300 points lower....rhymes, rhymes...

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