A Couple of Positive Fundos

For once, some fundamentals are actually making a difference in the paper gold "market" this morning. Fine with me...I'll take it. Now the question becomes, can we eek out a technically-positive close by 1:30 pm?

So, as I type, both gold and silver are near their highs of the day. I have a last in the June gold of $1208.30 and a last in the May silver of $16.59. A rally? Seriously?? Why???

  • First of all, The Pig has eased a little since reaching a high of 99.69 a few hours ago. I have a last of 99.23.
  • However, here's a fundamental factor that seems to be in play. Gold imports into India more than doubled in March vs March of 2014. The reported total for March was 125 mts. As Ruprecht would say, that's a lot. http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/04/10/india-gold-imports-idINKBN0N117Y20150410
  • And then check this out...The Apple iWatch, fancy-schmancy gold edition, completely sold out in China within an hour of its introduction and release. These babies were selling at about $20,000 or 127,000 yuan and they were all gone inside of an hour. Maybe Apple really will soak up 400 mts of gold in selling these things?!? http://www.businessinsider.com.au/apple-watch-edition-sold-out-in-china-2015-4

So, now, here we go into the weekly close. Last Thursday, gold closed at $1201. This means that, after all the angst and grinding of teeth this week, we actually have a chance now to paint a green weekly candle onto the chart. Additionally and far more importantly, gold actually has a chance now to make a weekly close above its key moving averages. For the June contract, the 50-day MA is $1204 and the 100-day is near $1211. Again, closing above there...on a Friday no less...would be encouraging so watch these levels closely today.

And there are several levels to watch in silver, too. We've been as high this morning as $16.65 (hmmm, where have we seen that level before?). Closing above this level would be very nice and would make Turd happy. Of course, the same MAs are far more important and, conveniently, a somewhat lower bar. For the May contract, the 50-day is $16.53 and the 100-day is $16.60. After all we've been through this week, including the 6% intra-week decline, to still eek out a weekly close above those two MAs would be a very encouraging signal.

So hang in there and keep the faith while we see what the rest of the day brings. I'll be adding thoughts to this thread as the morning goes along and we'll have a full podcast summary and review later this afternoon.



waxybilldupp's picture

I'm only doing this to annoy Marchas and Silver66 ...


wax off

Silver Sooner's picture


You asked me on Tuesday the o/u for when things would start again.  After last night/this morning, the under is a sure bet.  

The next round has started.

Marchas45's picture

That's OK

Waxybilldupp there's plenty of room for you at the top.

I'm waiting for a guy to show up to see what he want's to sell me and can you believe it, every time I buy the spot goes up and when I sell it goes down. Sheeeeezzzzzzzzzzz I guess the moral is: Don't Buy and Sell. LMAO Have a Great Weekend Everyone.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Ugh. I had no idea.


Please provide an update with more details whenever it's convenient.

Response to: @Turd
Mr. Fix's picture

Why do fundamentals matter today?

They haven't meant squat for years.

perdman's picture

Looks Like A Cap and Smells like a Cap?

Well it probably is a cap!

Trading action very blunted like it was on April 6.  If HUI stays around the 169-170 area it appears it will be set up for a Head and Shoulders Top. Perhaps this is what the cartel wants to paint going next week. But clearly the momentum on the HUI seems like an awful lot of selling going on in the 169-179 area like what happened on the 6th. Doing some day trading on miners and these crooks are clearly capping this rally...So obvious how these guys operate...Who else would be selling the rally so hard?  

Barfly's picture

A close above

A pretend price in pretend money on a pretend chart in a pretend "market" is ultimately meaningless. Manipulate it up to create false hope and then crush it to discourage the sheeple from buying it. Keep it up until it is absolutely disfunctional and the vaults are empty and the price is zero. I'll buy it all the way down.

Turd Ferguson's picture

More good reading from Goldcore


Covers NIRP, which we often discuss here, as well as gold in other currencies:


Turd Ferguson's picture

And I missed this last week

pforth's picture

@Silver Sooner, What next round has started?

What next round has started?

ladyliberty's picture

Just up on YouTube: "There is No Horror That Cannot Occur..."

   Sean from SGTReport interviews Jeff Nielson; it is captioned as, "There is No Horror That Cannot Occur Once Economic Order Collapses," which resonates with our host's well-stated and well-received message.

TURD ( Craig):  Also, thank you again for all your work.  It is sincerely appreciated.

ladyliberty's picture

Another Jeff Nielson interview, longer, with Paul Sandhu


Turd Ferguson's picture

He's talking about the


He's talking about the restarting of active hostilities in Ukraine.

Clarki Stomias's picture

Denver Dave: James Turk says gold rise due to short covering

B/c of backwardation.  In Dave's words:

"Zerohedge is attributing the pop in the price of gold to this Indian gold import report.  But Zerohedge is wrong.  This report was released about 2 hours ago.   The price of gold spiked up at 4 a.m. EST, around the time the London gold market goes into full swing.

I can’t find any specific trigger for the move.  Shadow of Truth (LINK) just did a podcast interview with James Turk that will be posted on Sunday.   He talks about backwardation in the London market.  I had him explain what that means for listeners – something no other podcast host has ever done.  At any rate, he thinks – based on his observations and business dealings in the London gold market – that London is wiped out of physical gold available for immediate delivery.

Whatever triggered the initial surge at 4:00 a.m. NY Time overnight probably triggered heavy short-covering.  We know from the COT report released last Friday that the bullion banks shorted massive quantities of fraudulent Comex paper gold last week.  Maybe they are starting to run from the physical shortage Turk describes."


Ever since they removed GOFO from view I've been wondering how far thin they've stretched themselves with this latest price raid. Looks like the answer is now "too far".  AND, more importantly, it's apparently from a higher low this time: $1195-ish.  So our new floor is now around 1200 and not 1150??...

SteveW's picture

TSO cancels Ukrainian born concert pianist

who was due to play Rachmaninov's 2nd with the Toronto Symphony but whose Twitter feed has accused Western journalists of bias in reporting events in Eastern Ukraine.

According to the orchestra's President '“As one of Canada’s most important cultural institutions, our priority must remain on being a stage for the world’s great works of music, and not for opinions that some believe to be deeply offensive,” Melanson said.'

Now I'm confused. Would the opinions of the pianist infuse the playing of concerto and make a political statement or would the playing of a Russian piece of music be itself intolerable? Apparently the cancellation was a response to complaints but the spineless TSO did not reveal the nature of those complaints.

I wonder if they ever play any Tchaikovsky?


AIJ's picture

Interesting dymanic

The algos trade per the mathematics.

Then Gold ( physical ) has to trade in response.

A system set up to break.

Since 2000 I have been in the pm markets.

It seems in 2013 a serious algo took over to break the PM buyers.

Can you say BACKFIRE ??

The East is burying them now. 

You would think TPTB would now manage a controlled rise.

They either won't or CAN'T. My bet is on the latter.

Tick Tock. Like in "Interstellar" we are in the "time slippage" near the event horizon.

cashonly's picture

Dollar Imperialism, 2015 Edition

very good article explaining the dollar hegemony as well as what is going on with the dollar globally.  The last paragraph I did not agree with ..... but all in all a very good article on why no single currency, backed by NOTHING of value, can serve the best interests of all.    


Silver Sooner's picture

Ukraine, The Next Round

I said repeatedly that Minsk 2 was only an "operational pause" and that nothing had been solved wrt the war being fought in Ukraine.  It was really only a question of time as to when the U.S.-Russia proxy war would get hot again.  And while the past several weeks have been quiet from a hostility-perspective, the process began last night to transition from "operational pause" to full-on hostilities.

It's important to note that this doesn't mean either side is "on the offensive."  That's not how this works.  There is a transition period where one or both sides will begin "active reconnaissance" or "reconnaissance in force" where specific troop locations/strengths are probed for more precise situational awareness.  That is what the Ukraine Armed Forces has begun last night--active reconnaissance.  

It's also important to remember that this is a proxy war and that means the objectives of the war are different than "a land bridge to Crimea", "countering terrorist activities", "securing the Donbass", etc.  Those are the disinformation memes that both sides use in the information/psychological aspect of this war.  I highlight this because understanding the strategic (and grand strategic) objectives of the two main players--US & Russia--you can make much better sense out of the why and what in the Donbass.  For example, Ukraine is bankrupt and their offensive military capability has been eroded to virtually nothing as a result of the winter fighting.  So why would they re-start the war when they have no realistic chance of success?  Because Ukraine defeating the Russian-backed rebels isn't the objective.  That's also why the war in Ukraine is more about process vs traditional military offensives (that magically stop when one side significantly prevails).  

So, bottom line...the spring-summer campaign has begun.  It's not a D-Day-style event, but the transition process has begun.  The "offensives" by either side are probably still a couple of weeks away (as will be the news coverage), but make no mistake--it has begun.

Some random specifics (in no particular order):

- I mentioned in the JB-SBC chat that fierce fighting has been ongoing in Shirokino (a small, sea-side village east of Mariupol).  While Minsk 2 said that both sides had to pull back their heavy artillery, it didn't say anything about the tanks and mortars.  When I say fierce fighting, it means everything short of artillery.  There's been tank battles and heavy mortar attacks there for the past 2 weeks.  Mariupol remains a primary location of Ukrainian military strength.

- Ukraine has begun moving its artillery closer to Donetsk.  The parents have said each day things get louder and closer.  Other news reports that tank columns are moving up towards the Donetsk airport towards Sands and Avdyeevka.  It's the area NW of the Donetsk airport that seems to be the primary location of the active reconnaissance.  

- Ukraine has amassed a sizeable force southwest of Donetsk around Volnovakha.  As the transition process plays out and the spring-summer campaign is in full-swing, expect this force/area to be of primary significance.

cashonly's picture

Jeff Nielson

Jeff has risen quickly as one of my favorite writers on many topics, he is right there with Jim Quinn.  His article on the "One Bank", I believe, nails it on the head.   Bullion Bulls Canada is right up there with TFMetals on sites I visit, although it ranks just below TFMetals of course!

canary's picture

"Market forces"

are working hard to get metals below MAs.....and S&P up as Friday's tradition. They think we are so stupid.

AGAU's picture

@canary market ...

These slimeballs are not worried about us pm holders , we ain't budging! 

They are worried about the other 98%,  the prols who have no idea where we are headed, yours could ask 1000 people the price of gold or silver and I doubt 2 would be able to give you a answer let alone the pros and cons of gold ownership. This is how they can piss on us ,nobody cares and we will be labelled a hoarders when the SHTF

​Turd  already told us that is imperative for these snakey toerags to "discourage any and all western interest in gold  investment  -- so far they are winning but their bag of wildcats is going to get loose soon !       the clocks ticking  tick tock............

Chord's picture

Sadly, Bullion Bulls Canada is ending....

As a fan of Jeff Nielson's Bullion Bulls Canada, I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news:


It appears the site will end in a few months, this was posted about seven weeks ago.

Some truly great articles have been posted there.

Turd Ferguson's picture

from Andy

Turd Ferguson's picture

My feelings about The


My feelings about The Jailbird have been well-documented. However, this is interesting:


SteveW's picture

Bullion Bulls

Recently Jeff Nielson has been writing for Sprott. I was a little surprised as his pithy approach has been maintained, in particular he wrote a column asserting that PMs, as currency, are not taxable.

joeblack's picture

Now we have gaps on the miners....

...............that need to close.

Old Howard's picture

What the ---k

Dollar up .4%.  Gold up over 1%. My hat off to anyone understanding these markets.. 

SS121's picture

why doesn't the silver chart go to zero?? (+mental prep)

The silver chart will not go to zero because at some point on the way to zero the retail/public would quit selling physical Silver for "silver chart" prices.  The chart owners would then lose "CONTROL" of the people's Silver transaction prices.


The only reason the silver chart exists is to control the public's perception as to the value and monetary nature of Silver.  I.e. Price control device.

The real story regarding the silver chart is that it controls the price of the world's physical Silver transactions.  Yet this never even gets a mention because this 800 pound gorilla is outside the media market narratives.


Part of mentally exiting the system is to stop lapdogging media market narratives.  ...to stop analyzing system information at face value.  How?

By starting to treat all system data and information (propaganda) as illegitimate until it's proven legitimate (and it won't be).

Only Silver and Gold are Money

canary's picture

Canary market...

Right...it's all about the 98%. They dosed them long lasting sleeping pill.

joeblack's picture

Negative COT in gold


Commercial go short 28000 contracts.

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