Hot War in Ukraine

The situation in southern Ukraine has rapidly deteriorated today as the NAF have begun an "offensive operation" in Mariupol. How this plays out in the days ahead remains to be seen but wait until you see and hear the YouTube clip we've found.

Again, the TFMR Ukraine War Correspondent, SilverSooner, continues to keep Turdville up-to-date with all of the changing information. SS is able to see through some of the "war fog" and present concise summaries for all of us from information gleaned from his contacts on the ground in the Donbass. The first comment listed below is a copy-and-paste of the information he shared with us late yesterday.

The situation has taken a dramatic turn for the worst today as the Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF) have begun what one of their leaders has called "an offensive operation". An excellent summary of the days events was posted to ZeroHedge earlier and I urge you to review this link:

As this situation unfolds, your best source of immediate information continues to be Twitter. While I try to pass along anything of interest that I see through my account @TFMetals, I urge you to also follow some of these folks yourself:






Most importantly and, quite frankly the purpose of this post, you must diligently attempt to see through this fog of war yourself. The misinformation and propaganda is thick, on both sides. This is one reason why I've been posting the weekly Batchelor-Cohen discussions since last February!

In "the West", you're being told that the Ukrainian armed forces tasked with defending Mariupol and other cities are a hard-scrabble crew of Ukrainian patriots. While that may certainly be true in some instances, I ask you to listen to this brief video that was taken earlier today in Mariupol. Does this soldier sound Ukrainian to you??

Lastly, we've followed this situation very closely for the past year because of its potential, dramatic impact on The End of The Great Keynesian Experiment. With HOT WAR heating up across Ukraine and now with direct evidence of NATO mercenaries in country, this situation is about to get even more dangerous.

Please continue to monitor it very closely!


p.s. A big thanks to SilverSooner for all his efforts and for passing along the YouTube clip embedded above.


Turd Ferguson's picture

SilverSooner update from Friday


Now that some time has passed in this latest escalation of hostilities in the Donbass, certain things are becoming more apparent while others remain hidden by operational secrecy.  But even in noticing what things are still hidden, we can deduce more about the situation and what's in store for the foreseeable future.

Before I get too deep, one important thing to clarify: the Ukrainian front line isn't close to falling apart.  Ukrainian forces have been on the defensive, and they have their problems (as I mentioned yesterday) but there's no reason to think they are close to collapse anytime soon.  In fact, it now appears that Ukraine is preparing a significant counter-attack.  So don't expect a systemic breakdown quite yet and remember that Ukraine still maintains a vast superiority in numbers.  

- POLITICAL: Donetsk National Republic (DNR) PM Zaharchenko has really come out swinging in the last couple of days.  He's stated that the Minsk Agreement in its current form is dead.  He also stated, "the DPR will no longer attempt to discuss the ceasefire with Kiev.  There will be no more attempts to discuss a ceasefire.  Now we will see how Kiev will react.  Kiev does not understand that we can advance on three sectors simultaneously.  No more ceasefires, no more rotations...we'll beat the exterminators until we reach Donetsk region border."  Please understand that Zaharchenko is not saying these 

things without the Kremlin's explicit approval.  

- POLITICAL:  The Ukrainian parliament (Rada) has drafted legislation permitting military commanders to shoot insubordinate soldiers on the spot.  Source (in Ukrainian)

- POLITICAL: Yesterday, there were numerous videos of Ukrainian "cyborg" POWs who were paraded in Donetsk where the trolleybus was hit as well as a documented KIA transfer to the Ukrainians.  If you watch these videos, you can see a carefully orchestrated message to the Ukrainian PEOPLE that the current government in Kiev doesn't care about them or their boys.  Now I'm not going to touch the legalities/moralities of parading POWs, other than to say 1.) DNR/LNR aren't signatories to the Geneva Conventions and 2.) it's a Russian thing (see WW2).  What these videos (and more importantly the dialog between the POWs and the people living in Donetsk/Zaharchenko) accomplish is dispelling the Ukrainian propaganda that Russian regulars/Russian terrorists are the ones on the receiving end of Ukrainian attacks.  Russia hopes that Ukrainian soldiers and soldiers' mothers will see that those who are senselessly slain as "Heroes of Ukraine" are in fact killing and terrorizing babushkas and pensioners who call the Donbass their home.  That and the government in Kiev views their soldiers as expendable "cannon fodder".  Whether this strategy will pay dividends remains to be seen...but Novorussia is capitalizing on the symbolic success at the Donetsk airport to spread that message.

- INFORMATIONAL: I didn't mention it here in Turdville, but a couple of months ago, one notable Novorussian commander, Mozgovoi (or "brain/brainy" as it gets translated), had a teleconference with some Ukrainian soldiers on Skype.  Internet observers howled at the audacity of Mozgovoi talking to his fascist enemies face-to-face.  What was lost in all the hoopla was the content of their conversation--both sides agreed the real enemy was in Kiev.  Keep all of the above in mind as you read this next bit:

- POLITICAL/STRATEGIC:  Today, Zaharchenko announced that he's ordering his forces to "give no quarter."  Wow.  DNR is no longer going to be taking prisoners.  So, taken what I said above, Ukrainian soldiers now have two choices:  fight in the meat grinder of that is now the Donbass, or turn their guns on their own government and march to Kiev.  The seeds have been planted and the Novorussians are watering them.  There's more to this prisoner exchange/no prisoners story, but until I can verify some things we'll just leave it there.

- WEATHER:  The weather stinks....and more importantly the terrain is a mess.  Fields are snow-covered, but it hasn't been cold enough to make terrain firm and passable.  Rather, the roads/fields are slushy and visibility has been very poor--all conditions that favor the defender.  Fields won't be conducive to maneuver warfare until late April.   

- Again the same map from yesterday for easy reference:

- OPERATIONAL:  This is where things get interesting.  It's clear enough now that Novorussia is carrying out an operational plan in its early stages, but the objectives of this current plan are still hidden.  Cassad and others have said that "this isn't the main event".  NAF is keeping the Ukrainians guessing as to exactly what the objective is.  NAF is attacking all along the border...Mariupol, Donetsk, Gorlovka, Debaltsyevye, west of Lugansk.  Zaharchenko has said NAF is pushing to restore the original borders of the territories (oblasts).  As a result, Ukraine's main force is still in the is NAF's*Again, NAF is executing a plan right now and Ukraine has been on the defensive.*  Whatever plans the Ukrainians had for an offensive are now shelved and they (and their advisors) are forced to defend, react and counter.  NAF currently has the operational initiative.

- OPERATIONAL: What is happening is that NAF is luring out and systematically targeting Ukraine's most effective battlefield tool: their artillery.  At a minimum, NAF wants to seriously degrade Ukraine's ability to bombard Donbass cities as well as their ability to provide battlefield support for what lies ahead.  NAF has also systematically eaten away at Ukraine's front-line defenses.  Ukraine still has significant layered defenses thanks to the sham ceasefire that was the Minsk agreement.

- OPERATIONAL: This evening, there are reports that Ukraine is finally launching a counter-offensive.  Specifically, the Ukrainians are committing to attacking north of Donetsk (the airport again) and Svetlodarsk (a key town of the mouth of the Debaltsyevye pocket).  Residents in Dnepropetrovsk (central Ukraine) and the villages around Slavyansk/Kramatorsk have reported a lot of Ukrainian armor heading towards Donetsk.  In response, NAF is also sending reinforcements to Donetsk and Svetlodarsk.  

- TEASER: Do...not...forget...about...Kharkov.  

- SUMMARY: In brief: 1.) NAF has an operational plan in motion and the operation's objective is not clear at this time.  2.) Ukraine is launching a counter-offensive.  3.) The weather doesn't seem to favor any large-scale changes in the overall lines, but crazier things have happened (and they are Russians/Ukrainians after all).  4.) Villages and tactical positions are going to change hands a lot in the hours/days/weeks ahead. 5.) Doesn't look like there's going to be a ceasefire until there are some drastic changes.  6.) We still haven't seen the main event.  

- ****The big question...what does NAF have planned and is Ukraine being lured into a carefully-designed trap?  

- I probably won't post any more updates until the above situation changes.  When the main event starts or looks like it's going to start, I'll make sure and let you all know.  'Til then, I'll lurk on main street and chime in on any discussions or answer any questions.  (I just don't think there's interest or value in updating on every small tactical event and that's what's going to happen for a while.)  As always, feel free to PM me if you want.  

Turd Ferguson's picture

And this from the Shaun walker twitter feed


Also taken today. Also from Mariupol. What a grad rocket attack looks like from a dashcam:


Turd Ferguson's picture

More from Mariupol today


This from David Patrikarakos' twitter feed. Reluctantly posted below.



Turd Ferguson's picture

US statement

StevenBHorse's picture

Another one

Skip to 14:16

Orange's picture

Come on Turd

I have thought about this a lot.

The guy must be a Russian soldier trained with an American accent. I was told Russia invaded the Ukraine.


Nuland is Jewish, why did she support the overthrow of democratically elected leaders and install extreme "Nazi's" that want to exterminate Russian speaking Ukrainians.

By the way, Putin knows how to play chess. Seems to be buying more gold. I guess he listened to the Chinese commercials advising their citizens to buy gold.

Time for a RESET.

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Why attack Mariupol?

Do they want it to look like Luhansk and Donetsk?  Did the residents of Mariupol request the attack?  Who is served by the attack?

Owtovit's picture

10.30pm in London.....sat nite...Is it just me...

is it just me or is the world spinning faster and more volatile......PM's up (yay).... Wierd attacks be it real or media driven...CB's bailing and going all in (SNB V ECB)..... Ukraine.....this is all fuct up!.....glad I have a mighty fine Dublin lassie next to me at me local pub for the craic.......

Turd Ferguson's picture

I think that the strategic


I think that the strategic reason is that it is located across the sea from Crimea.

Mr. Fix's picture

Thanks for the videos Turd,

My first thought was “ our tax dollars hard at work,” 

but I think a more accurate description would be this is what happens when you give criminals control over the money supply, and can print it out of thin air.

This can continue until the plug gets pulled on the printing press,  or  dollars become a completely unacceptable form of exchange.

It saddens me that ultimately the country that I live in is solely responsible for this.

It wouldn't upset me one bit if global retaliation  turned the interior of the DC Beltway into the world's biggest crater. 

Unfortunately, it never seems to work out that way.

DeaconBenjamin's picture


So then you view the Novorussians as puppets of the Russians rather than as people simply seeking to protect themselves from the US-backed neo-nazis. 

cyclemadman's picture


History is always determined by the victors. Whoever wins a conflict skews how that event is recorded for future generations.

Thus since the United States and is allies/accomplices have been generally victorious for the past 100 years. History has been written in a way that shines a favorable light upon the winners.

The sad thing is, up until just a few years ago, I believed the United States entered into conflicts for noble reasons.

Turd Ferguson's picture

What? When did I say that?


Please don't presume or make blanket assumptions.

Response to: @Turd
Silver Sooner's picture

re: More From Mariupol Today

As StevenBHorse also pointed out, watch from the 14:20 point in either his video or Turd's. There is another "Ukrainian" in Mariupol, only he sounds like an Aussie or Kiwi. And notice the patch on his sleeve....that is the Ukrainian Azov Battalion's patch.

Ensues's picture


Thank you.  Thank you very much for your time and effort keeping us informed.  You have my deep gratitude which doesn't buy much metal these days but hopefully it will be repaid in Karma.  

Silver Sooner's picture

Short and Sweet

- I could say a lot about what happened in Mariupol, but frankly, I don't have the energy right now.  Just remember that I've been telling you all for several days now that Mariupol was just one place that Novorussia was attacking.  Why is the news picking up Ukraine coverage on this ONE GRAD volley today?  Why was this ONE EVENT worthy for the SecState letter that Turd posted above given everything else that has happened in the last 4 days?  Why no mention of the OTHER SITES of more intense fighting (Donetsk-Peski-Avdyeevka, Gorlovka or Debaltsyevye)? 

- The update I made Friday (and posted above) is still current with the following update:

-- Ukraine has committed virtually all of its reserve forces to shore up the front lines.  NAF has committed SOME of their reserves.

-- The pocket around Debalstyevye is in critical danger of being closed by the Novorussians.  There are roughly 8,000 Ukrainian troops in that little white indent on the map above.  In comparison, if you remember "the cauldrons" from war in the Donbass last summer...the largest cauldron then was 5,500 Ukrainian troops. 

- Still waiting for the main event

TinHat's picture


Why did the Jewish overwhelmingly support Obama?  Then you may have the answer to your question.

AlienEyes's picture

@ TinHat

1) Because they hate white Christians, except when asking for money ?

2) Because they are the same communist that Hitler tried to exterminate in Europe ?

3) Because they invented the "diversity" bullsh!t to apply everywhere except Israel to divide and conquer the goy (cattle) ? 

4) Because 80% are bat-sh!t crazy ?

God help the other 20% that are still in their right mind.

Flying Wombat's picture

US-Russia: Avoiding a New Cold War (Panel Discussion w/ Video)

Major figures within the US international relations community giving presentations and serving on a panel.  Lots of food for thought here.

Eric Dubin, Managing Editor, The News Doctors

# # # #

US-Russia: Avoiding a New Cold War (Panel Discussion w/ Video)  

TND Editor's Spotlight:  Economists For Peace & Security Panel Discussion  

The following is a panel discussion on the current state of US/Russian relations, historical context and ultimately, discussion on how to avoid a new Cold War.  The event was organized by Economists For Peace & Security and took place on January 4, 2015 in Boston, Massachusetts.  Charles Knight participated on the panel and also separately published an article on the same subject via the Project on Defense Alternatives.  We highly recommend you read that article first before playing panel session videos.   

Click here to access the program:

Safety Dan's picture



Published on Jan 23, 2015

The USA has, by far, the highest per capita gun ownership in the world. Progressives will tell you that this is what makes America the Murder Capitol of Planet Earth. But we're not, and in this devastatingly effective Firewall, Bill Whittle shows why the center of Gun Nut Nation is in fact one of the safest places in the world.

Safety Dan's picture

USA McDonald's fries have 14

USA McDonald's fries have 14 ingredients. UK McDonald's fries have 4.

Here's a followup to my earlier post about McDonald's fries. In 2013 Food Babe posted the ingredients for McDonald's fries in the US and in the UK.

The US fries have 14 ingredients, while the UK fries are restricted to potatoes, two kinds of oil, and (sometimes) dextrose. Notably absent from the UK fries is methylpolysiloxane, a commonly used anti-foaming agent that's also an ingredient used to make Silly Putty.

When I compared the ingredient list of McDonald’s french fries in the US vs. the UK version, I was floored to witness the drastic differences. Europeans do not use dimethylpolysiloxane. Look closely at the ingredients in McDonald’s french fries [above]. Do you see how the french fries in the U.K. version are basically just potatoes, vegetable oil, a little sugar and salt? How can McDonald’s make french fries with such an uncomplicated list of ingredients all over Europe, but not over here? Why do McDonald’s french fries in the U.S. have to have an “anti-foaming” agent? Do the brits like extra foam? No, they don’t, Europe actually regulates this ingredient because they know this man-made chemical was never intended to be consumed by humans. This whole time McDonalds has known about this and chooses to continue to serve it’s US citizens silly putty.

Personally, I'm more concerned about the hydrolyzed wheat and hydrolyzed milk in the US fries than I am about methylpolysiloxane, because I avoid excitotoxins when possible.

UPDATE: As far as I can tell the ingredients list posted by Food Babe is correct. Here is a link to the UK McDonald's page for its fries. Many kind readers have commented that Food Babe is not generally to be trusted with food science, however.

ivars's picture

After Munich 2 in Minsk where

After Munich 2 in Minsk where Europe recognized separatist occupied region right to exist in East Ukraine, everything is developing as I have predicted and in spring  South East Ukraine will be Russian or pro Russian controlled with Western Ukraine left in limbo and expecting the same future soon. 

Where is the difference between German annexation of Austria, Sudetenland and Czechoslovakia and Russian of Crimea, East Ukraine and later whole Ukraine I still do not see as there is none. Next after Ukraine Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will be occupied this autumn by Russia de facto, thus dividing influence spheres in Central Asia with biggest friend China, same way as friendly Germany and Soviet Union divided Poland and Baltic States and Besarabia in WWII. 

This analogy INCLUDES provocation to aggression by sanctions, financial warfare etc.  and economic humiliation of a former Empire that has lost the previous war (WWI, cold war); That seems obvious Russia is being provoked in a sense that if it does not respond, it will be eliminated. But so was Germany. So where is the difference? First one Empire died ( German) now second is dying ( Russian). Historically its essentially the same process. Since history is written by victors we know very little how Germans felt prior to WWII, what caused them to attack in reality. Of course, existential threat, that is clear. Same here. 

Patriot Family's picture

The "Get out of my face guy" - probably not American military

It's hard to pick up on, he's either Australian or Brit.  I would NOT assume he is working with a national military unit.  Most likely a contractor or mercenary.  I'd put my money on contractor.  I couldn't even begin to guess who he's working for.  Could be there to protect private interests - pretty common in conflict zones and the money can be very good.  Too many people trying to say the guy is American military from a video clip that lasts a few seconds.  Crazy.

Blythesshrink's picture

I'm British, that guy has not

I'm British, that guy has not got a British accent.  I'm also sure it's not Australian either. However, it could be dubbed, we don't get to see his lips moving.

tyberious's picture

Outta my face

Is an East Coast expression! Vito, get outta my face, youz douch bag! But Please is British :)

BarnacleBill's picture

out a my face

Winston Churchill? One-half Brit and one-half Yank?  Jk

James Crighton's picture

Putin saving Russia from the Banksters:

Putin saving Russia from the Banksters - this is well worth a read - an interesting array of photos.

Vladimir Putin’s Russia: Perfect Foil To The Anglo-American Axis And Their New World ‘Order’

Secret History Revealed — Putin Played Critical Role After The Pre-Planned Collapse Of The USSR


infometron's picture

The latest from Stratfor

Red Alert Update: At the Heart of the Mariupol Crisis is republished with permission of Stratfor.

Therein they claim as a fact that (1) Russian troops are already in the Donbas and that (2) more are currently flowing in. The only support they appear to provide for (1) appears to be in a subscriber only article from early last December. Any turdites subscribed to

As always, greatly looking forward to Silver Sooner's commentary in this regard.

Syndicate contentComments for "Hot War in Ukraine"