Progress Report at end of 2014

How much at risk our invested assets are in the present global economy and top-of-society-centered legal immunity is a really difficult thing to quantify.

Jim Sinclair has for a long while made the point of GOTS. (Get out of the system). Ann Barnhardt also sings this particular tune, as do other advisors-mavens-people-dealers particularly in the financial side of the "prepper" sphere.

Unfortunately it's a pity that some of the many people advising this strategy have been making a living from it, while at the same time the benefits to their customers have been shall we say a little "spotty", what with precious metals oil and so on falling significantly after they suggested buying these items.

And of course while stocks rise as freshly created money flows into this asset class, an opportunity for capital gain is lost by those who stepped aside while they awaited various crash scenarios to come to pass.

But even the boy who called "Wolf!" was right in the end of that story. Unfortunately his friends had moved away from listening to him by the time he came through his bad patch.

(I mention before moving on that extremely large structures usually crash at slow speed.)

On the one hand - all this advice was basically intended as prudent advice to fireproof your a$$ from adversity. On another hand - it was a counter reaction to moves observed to be made by the other side in the wealth confiscation war (intra national financial wars against ordinary people by their state) which we are living through. On a third hand - some sellers of goods used the storyline to encourage a different kind of consumer spending for those who awoke from the consumer society dream and found themselves in a bigger dream but didn't realize it. This didn't work out and assets were bought at too high a cost as lessons were learned.

I look at mostly at timing of events, sequential reaction and counter reaction,  and series of connected events. At the moment I would like to draw readers attention to:

  • new rules in CME;
  • new derivative issuing banks bailout legislation slipping through US legislature this week;
  • new G20 rules about "bailin" depositor funds capture;
  • a geopolitical violence cycle peak of size on 18th December;
  • the approaching end of quarter/end of half year/end of year accounting period;
  • the Chicago Fed reportedly bricking up ground floor windows in their downtown building;
  • US Dept of Treasury purchases of survival kits for staff;
  • large financial institution busting swings in the value of bonds and oil;
  • CDS prices increasing sharply for some countries recently.

In the longer term I draw readers attention that interest rates were recently at approximately 60, 120 and 300 year lows and even more recently rallied to retest those lows.

Certain large historical events like Cold Wars, Global Power Wars in Eastern Europe and exchange of ownership of The Crimea has also happened at these past interest rate extreme periods and this type of stuff is happening now. The financing of those wars through sovereign debt hitting extreme highs provides the banking and economic connection from interest rate extremes at those times to banking cartels, and sovereign protection of financiers.

Because of the above points I think it is a good idea to watch short term interest rates carefully. What they say for each nation will tend to cut through the fog of misleading news swamping our senses.

That indicates that I am of the opinion that those who say oil will stay down forever or interest rates will never rise are wrong. So if you think I am incorrect in suggesting that, the rest of this article may not be for you, but remember I am considering a period of 1-10 years here.

We are in for a churning period in my view, a period which when looked at from a future date with the benefit of hindsight will be seen as a turn of a long term magnitude. Such turns in secular trends take 3 to 5 to 10 years to form. If you try to imagine an eg 5 year long double top, triple bottom, or head and shoulders pattern in your favourite asset class, well the hills and valleys in that make for a lot of churning. This would be churning on a big scale if it turns out this way.

I am thinking in terms of range trading as stagflation evolves into inflation over an extended period. Ray Dalio's "Beautiful Deleveraging" is continuing, and the counter-stagflationary social political forces to it are now organizing. This is visible in popular protests rising over peripheral reasons. There is a general protest against injustice, and a reactionary move by authorities to protect establishment from it and keep the little people in their place. The late 1970s and early 1980s are reminiscent, but the late 40s through 1960s are a much better comparision to today, though less recent.

2015 will be an exciting year with many unpleasant surprises for the unprepared. Exciting may be putting it mildly. As usual, insiders will be pre-advised about precisely what to do to profit. Outsiders including the masses will be propagandized and misinformed to cause mistakes and loss. The best we can do is figure out in advance the parameters of the ranges within which prices may fluctuate and act accordingly.

Because the debt still exists and cheap energy has not been discovered or seized by military means, stagflation will continue as will also the resource wars against all resource (wealth) containing countries not already controlled by the western financialized zone.

In this context the (apparent) turning of Turkey and India eastwards and to a certain degree away from European Union and the British Commonwealth towards the new Asian Bloc is a significant event which will set off many new missions and counter missions. We will possibly soon  see violence materialize in places where it has not occurred for a few decades. The reasons for this will be invented to suit the needs of the moment, but competition for and domination of resources is what it is all about.

Also, please remember that a population of tax payers, whatever their living standards have risen to or declined to,  can be regarded as a resource. For example, at the present moment workmen are outside the houses in my area installing water meters so we will pay water charges in addition to our existing taxation which already contains water costs.

As we move towards the end of 2014 the precious metals and oil and stocks are moving towards extreme valuations. Never forget that this incurs a high cost on big players upon the geopolitical field. On the smaller level, my national government within the EU can easily bully me and others and charge double for drinking water in order to redirect funds towards other wealth accumulating parties, and so in many other ways can other governments mistreat their citizens.

But sovereigns react to bullying attempts. They can and do strike back with lethal force at any perceived force which seeks to destroy their control of their territory and resources.

Two interesting questions we might ask ourselves might be : Have we seen retaliation yet? Will it be overt or covert?

The answers to these two questions raise the subject of derailment of processes in action. Such derailment seems to me to not be discounted in the prices currently set for the various assets. If that is the case, and unexpected derailment of plans subsequently occurs to reverse short term trends, then we are currently getting close to an edge of a trading range for many assets classes.

So good following questions are: What must Asia do to protect and preserve it's resources or create new ones? Will the Asian sovereigns choose to watch and do nothing or will they act?

This possibility may help up us to look in the right direction for information which at present is not already discounted and fully in the price. There is an old market idea which seems to apply here. We have to look to our perceived future, make it as realistic as possible, then locate differences between that future and the present, and as the world moves towards our vision the assets we have acquired will change their value accordingly.

Take care

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice The author advises that he trades and holds market positions in accordance with his own opinions.


Eppes's picture



pm_newbie's picture


thanks AM.  Something to go with my morning coffee

SilveryBlue's picture


You are a very canny man.

Thanks for all that you do for TFMR and it's constituents

Big Hugs & Merry Christmas if I am not on your thread for a bit. Holidays you know smiley

Aaand THIRD!

btcgoldbull's picture


will prove all TFMRers to be great investors but (most) not the greatest traders :-)

silver66's picture


AM as usual another thought provoking article

Thanks for the efforts and insights


Turd Ferguson's picture

Great stuff


Thank you, AM!

Turd Ferguson's picture

And a heads up


Two special deals from The Doc today:




SE's picture

8% and 17%

for Gold and Silver respectively.  Does this mean that even if silver was at $200, and it went up to $203, is that a limit up, or is the percentage of 17% in one day limit up instead?  Documentation seems to suggest the former case, such that if it went from $500 to $503, that would be limit up for that trading period.  Also, it seems to suggest that futures can limit up 3 times during a day, and then the fourth limit up will not be capped and rise as high as it will go for the day.

Is this correct?

SE's picture

GATA - must-read

"The futures markets are not manipulated; the futures markets are the manipulation."  This is not new, but I wanted to remind everyone...  So, futures for gold and silver HAVE to be shut down.

"While the principle of most gold investment analysis is "You can't print gold," "paper gold" can be printed to infinity just like regular government currency -- and indeed it has been printed practically to infinity."  Another reason why such futures HAVE to be shut down.

"On the other hand, if there is no general realization of the fraud of "paper gold" and central bank intervention in markets, gold price suppression and the destruction of markets generally may go on forever."  Yet another reason for the shut down of these futures markets.

"The system may end at the insistence of the developing world with an official worldwide revaluation of gold and gold's formal restoration to the international monetary system and the demotion of the U.S. dollar.

"The system may end when one country pulls the plug on it, exchanging U.S. dollars and government bonds for more gold -- real metal -- than is available, or when ordinary investor demand exhausts supply, which is more or less how the London Gold Pool ended in 1968."

My response to Chris on these two paragraphs is: "The latter is very likely to happen, if Russia pulls the plug by going off SWIFT, trading the dollars for gold, and setting up its interbank system by May next year.

"The former, I would prefer, as it is less likely to involve a war.  What needs to happen is people in India, China, Russia, and elsewhere need to come together to work to REMOVE gold and silver from COMEX and elsewhere so that it is not available to the US gov't, BIS, WGC, etc.  When I say people, I mean the average people on the street.  We can do this now across the Internet."

After Chris mentioned that it was not practical to act against the gold and silver price suppression scheme by removing metal from COMEX vaults, I had suggested instead, "Then the way you remove gold and silver from COMEX has to be done indirectly, such that investor's demand for them on the retail level from the refiners has to be so much that simply none is available at the refiners for delivery of any kind to depositories anywhere.  Tie up the refiner's supplies completely.


My question is, what can I do to organize an effort between Indians, Chinese, and Russians to buy up gold and silver specifically at refiners that are authorized feeders for COMEX?  Cut off their supplies?  We need to do this in a way that gold commentators have not been successfully doing.

Grey Mare's picture

Thanks, Argentus

For sharing your wisdom on the front page (or is that front porch)?


argentus maximus's picture

Here is George Soros

Here is George Soros discussing the stagflation I mentioned above. it's dated mid November but still seems current.

  • Perceptions for changing outlook from inflation to deflation
  • Critical of Greenspan
  • He advocates regulation of the credit supply in addition to the money supply

Worth a listen imo.

And thanks for the kind comments.

PMtoxopholite's picture


Thanks AM. I enjoy reading your contributions here.

I see GOTS as a form of economic war against the fractional reserve system. I very much view that as a just war as I'm sure most others here in Turdville do as well.

Not having the financial resources of a JS, I have come to the conclusion, a modified allocation of GOTS (100 hard asset/ 0 paper asset) allocation works best for me. I like to call it  GXXOTS. I am currently working toward G80OTS as I interpret risk/reward based on the systemic and counter party risk of hard asset vs. paper asset allocation. I will gladly modify the GXXOTS asset allocation to G75,60,40 or even G20 based on my perceptions of systemic/counter party risk in the future. It is indeed possible, given those perceptions and with the proper resources to go full GOTS as well.

My only regret w/ this strategy in waging war with the FRS is even partially contributing to sustaining it. A moral dilemma for me personally I wish weren't so. Great respect, admiration and even empathy, toward those who sustained financial losses, whom have followed the lead of JS, AB and others.

argentus maximus's picture

A foretaste of Asian reaction

China Enters Fight Against ISIS

If this is a beginning (in the public eye), it's likely that many western resource war missions in progress but unopposed by a serious sovereign power until now, will fail during 2015.

JY896's picture

Thanks, Argentus

Great piece.

I was wondering about how to corroborate the 'Chicago Fed windows walled in' story -- one easy method is Google Maps:,-87.6337651,3a,75y,81.26h,75.05t/data=!3m4!1e1!3m2!1smGwaZNkktlZ0zj9aSNCMqQ!2e0

If you locate the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, go to Street View, and 'walk' around the block.

The link shows the 'rear' wall of the building, the windows have been walled in and professionally finished with stone as of June 2014.

The building next door (the Marriott) is separated from the FRB_Chicago by an 'alley-size' small street, steel gates and retractable barricade closes it off in the back (JPM-FRBNY tunnel underground, anyone?).

The Marriott USED to have a display window in its rear corner closest to the Bank, which has been clumsily bricked up with cinderblocks. They may have finished it with stone tiles since then.

The Jackson Blvd. (side) view of the bank is the most precious, though IMHO. These may be the 'display windows' that were talked about. In the Google Street View images, they are covered  with collage posters in the grandest, classical style fo propaganda:

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago -- A Century of Service

- Protecting Against Counterfeit Bills (I thought the Secret Service did that)

- Securing the Vault (oh, I bet they secured it - no one is allowed to even LOOK inside)

- Processing Checks (uh-huh. Blank checks drawn on insolvent accounts. LOTS of these)

- Promoting a Healthy Economy (yup, they PROMOTE it just fine -- all FRB members and spokespeople are positively sore in the jaw from all the jawboning, especially over the last few years)

- Signing the Federal Reserve Act (black armbands all around to commemorate December 23, 1913? How much of the US population even knows WHAT it meant, let alone when it was?)


- Selling War Bonds (now, this here is a bona fide, true accomplishment -- they DID do this well. Indenturing future generations to fund both [all] sides in a global military conflict -- what CBs do best)


But this one should be MUCH more prominently publicized -- as it encapsulates the Bank (sorry, SYSTEM) core mission so well (I kid you not, this is from the financial education page of the FR System, Kansas branch):

FFFF - they're for the birds...

argentus maximus's picture

Up to date info (with photos)

Up to date info (with photos) about Fed Chicago's window sealing construction project  direct from a local - Jim Comiskey:

Jump to 11:00 for the interesting part.

BarnacleBill's picture

@ Argentus

Thanks for the Soros interview for his very unique perspective. Regulation of the credit markets sounds ok in theory but I can't imagine how it would work in practice. Also the piece on China intervening in Iraq (not part of the "coalition") may have some very interesting consequences in the mideast balance of power.

Safety Dan's picture

Bail-In and the Financial

Bail-In and the Financial Stability Board: The Global Bankers’ Coup

On December 11, 2014, the US House passed a bill repealing the Dodd-Frank requirement that risky derivatives be pushed into big-bank subsidiaries, leaving our deposits and pensions exposed to massive derivatives losses. The bill was vigorously challenged by Senator Elizabeth Warren; but the tide turned when Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorganChase, stepped into the ring. Perhaps what prompted his intervention was the unanticipated $40 drop in the price of oil. As financial blogger Michael Snyder points out, that drop could trigger a derivatives payout that could bankrupt the biggest banks. And if the G20’s new “bail-in” rules are formalized, depositors and pensioners could be on the hook.

All About That Wall Street Giveaway That Elizabeth Warren Hates

On Tuesday evening, lawmakers released the text of the massive spending bill that Congress must approve to avoid a government shutdown. Buried on page 615 of that 1,603-page piece of legislation is a provision entirely unrelated to government funding that a few lawmakers managed to sneak into the bill without any public debate during last-minute negotiations. It's a Wall Street giveaway—written by Citigroup—that would allow banks to engage in more types of risky trading with taxpayer-backed money.

Rothschild Controlled Central Banks ~ Japan, Europe, Switzerland Fraudulent Derivative Debt

Safety Dan's picture

Like Clockwork: Pension plans

Like Clockwork: Pension plans to be looted nationwide as Congress okays institutional theft of funds

By: NotForSale2NWO

​On April 2, 2013, in an article entitled Economics 101: Production, coercion and theft, I wrote about the coming looting of pension plans, stating:

Central Bankers Are Now Positioned To Loot Pensions and Bail-In The Banks - Episode 540

Safety Dan's picture

New York Times on Benefits of

New York Times on Benefits of Gold in Currency Wars

by GoldCore

The New York Times published an important article this week in which the benefits of gold to nation states during a period of currency wars was highlighted. The article was noteworthy as the New York Times has rarely covered gold in a positive manner.

The article, entitled ‘The Golden Age’ is about the growing use of gold in geopolitical affairs. They drew attention to the gold repatriation movements in Europe […]

It’s not just the US, countries around the world are slowly dropping the price of money to zero:

It's not just the US, countries around the world are slowly dropping the price of money to

— Tuur Demeester (@TuurDemeester) December 12, 2014

Currency wars on-going – ING: FXStreet (Barcelona) – “2014 marks the sixth year of the global currency war – o…

— FXnews 4trader (@FXnews4trader) December 12, 2014

Empire Total Currency War [$60/barrel Edition]

— Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) December 8, 2014

Chart: Euro strength against the yen puts pressure […]

Safety Dan's picture

What Is Happening With Gold:

What Is Happening With Gold: Russian Economist Mikhail Khazin - Of Volatility and CollarsThere are some interesting observations contained in this excerpt of a recent interview with Russian economist Mikhail Khazin.   He is not speaking on behalf of the Russian government, so we must take his opinions as we may from a private individual observing things from a different corner of the world.

[MUST READ] Elliott Wave Charts Point to Shocking Countertrend for Gold - The Au Report

Technical View On Gold’s Recent Breakout

Gold Silver Worlds | December 11, 2014 | Category: Technicals

Technical View On Gold’s Recent Breakout

It is unclear how long this rally in gold will last, but our indicators are confirming positive momentum. The Trend Model will not move from its intermediate- and long-term SELL signals until the 20-EMA has a positive crossover the 50-EMA. That would generate an intermediate-term Trend Model BUY signal. The long-term Trend Model will not change from a SELL signal until the 50-EMA crosses above the 200-EMA. That will require an extended gold rally in order to get those long-term EMAs to cross over.

NAV Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds

Sprott Silver has gone to a negative premium (discount) to NAV which is something we have not seen in a while.

I suspect that word is getting around that they will be looking to do a secondary offering earlier than later next year.

Safety Dan's picture

Current Price of Silver $50:

Current Price of Silver $50: Based On The Historic Oil-Silver Ratio  SRSReport   

Safety Dan's picture

Lead Developer of HPV

Lead Developer of HPV Vaccines Comes Clean, Warns Parents & Young Girls It’s All A Giant Deadly Scam

Dr. Diane Harper was a leading expert responsible for the Phase II and Phase III safety and effectiveness studies which secured the approval of the human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccines, Gardasil™ and Cervarix™. Dr. Harper also authored many of the published, scholarly papers about the vaccines. She is now the latest in a long string of experts who are pressing the red alert button on the devastating consequences and irrelevancy of these vaccines. Dr. Harper made her surprising confession at the 4th International Converence on Vaccination which took place in Reston, Virginia. Her speech, which was originally intended to promote the benefits of the vaccines, took a 180-degree turn when she chose instead to clean her conscience about the deadly vaccines so she “could sleep at night”.


abguy4's picture

@...Developer of HPV Vaccine

So........................let's examine how this works.

You use your authority and entitlement of position to unleash a deadly poison on young girls, who are too young and un-educated to know better. Some 6,000 of them now have various crippling levels of paralysis and other symptoms emulating advanced Multiple Sclerosis..

Ah but........... Ms Diane Phd can now sleep at night because she admitted to her heinous crime.

Eternal Hell is too good of a place for these unconscionable alien reptoids.

Kismet's picture

FATCA and Direct Deposit

Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) is on my Direct Deposit Form. Six months ago changed teaching position; had to wait for "time" to complete Direct Deposit. While filling it out this morning, there is a box which reads: "100% of the net deposit will not be sent to a financial institution outside the jurisdiction of the United States." and it is adjacent to the signature box. Has anyone else had this experience?

Kismet's picture

Bail In document by NY Fed

The NY Fed published a document back in March 2014 titled "Why Bail In? And How?"

Vol. 20 Number 2 (Mar 14)

Kismet's picture

Duplicate Sorry

Posted twice ... sorry about that.

Owtovit's picture

@JY, Thanks Argentus

Your 2nd photo looks (initially) like a fine bag of Colorado it's give a headache instead of a high....

Argentus, yet again another fine missive, really enjoy your Main Street posts....long may they continue....merry Xmas and a happy new year, have a large Connemara Whiskey for me!

Owtovit's picture

@ Safety. Dan .... Bail-in and the financial

My spidey senses are tingling and I smell a rat

WRT Dimon calling folks this seems eerily reminiscent of Paulson on his blended knee.....Please Please gimme gimme ....the world will end if you don't......see what's happening to oil right know how important oil is right?.....mwahahahahahahaha........cnutz!..... Ala Benito for you Jamie!

James Crighton's picture

re: 'ala Benito'

'a la Benito' - if he's lucky......


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