Information Deemed To Be Reliable

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Gosh, that sounds familiar. Where have I seen that disclaimer before? I know I've seen it somewhere...hmmm.

I've got it!! It's from the bottom of each day's "Gold Stocks" report issued by the CME. It didn't used to be there. In fact, the disclaimer was only added in 2013. Please see this excellent analysis from our pal DenverDave before proceeding:

So now that we've established that the numbers I'm about to present may be about as real as The Tooth Fairy, let's get right to it. Shall we?

Last week, there was all sorts of mumbling and grumbling about the 10 metric tonnes of eligible gold that had suddenly departed the JPM Comex gold vault. And not only was it a whopping 10 metric tonnes, it was a perfect and precise to three decimal points 10 metric tonnes. This once again means we're dealing with:

  • kilobars so perfectly shiny and new that they don't require any kind of weighing or assaying on the way in or out of the vault
  • bullshit paper shenanigans

I first wrote about this phenomenon about a year ago and, in doing so, kicked up a small hornet's nest of controversy. Please read here:

In response, I followed up with another post a few weeks later:

As you can see, I'm not new to this "perfect and precise" gold movement story. So, when I saw last week's perfect and precise, 10 metric ton withdrawal, it started me thinking. Not only was this par for the JPM course, last week's withdrawal also brought the total perfect and precise withdrawals over just the last month to 21 metric tonnes. WoW! That's a lot!

Below are the Gold Stocks reports that I've saved over the past year. I try to check them every day but I'm certain that there are days that I have missed. Therefore, there are likely other days where perfect and precise, deposits and withdrawals have been made but I've missed/overlooked them. Here are just 10 daily reports, showing a perfect and precise, no need to weigh or assay, 33 metric tonnes of eligible gold deposits:

Below are three reports from earlier this year showing a total of 25, perfect and precise metric tonnes heading back out:

And, over just the past month, here are four reports showing a perfect and precise total of 21 more metric tonnes heading off to points unknown:

Note that these last four withdrawals have reduced the amount of gold in JPM's eligible vault by nearly 1,000,000 ounces! This leaves JPM with just 176,436 ounces of registered gold and 485,757 of eligible. Even if every remaining ounce of eligible was converted to registered, this is only enough gold to settle 6,600 Comex contracts. A paltry amount given the total open interest and likely 10,000+ standing for delivery in December.

So, what in the name of Jon Corzine is going on here? Frankly, I have no idea and it's impossible to come to any specific conclusions but there certainly are some questions that need to be pondered:

  1. Again, is this all just bullshit and is that the reason why the CME suddenly felt compelled to issue the daily disclaimers? Are there really armored trucks driving around Manhattan, carrying two, five or ten metric tonnes of gold kilobars and heading off to points unknown?
  2. If all of these vault movements actually represent real, physical gold, then who or what went to the trouble of parking over 40 metric tonnes of brand new kilobars in JPM's Comex vault, only to remove them later?
  3. Why is JPM's Comex gold vault down to just 662,000 ounces? This leaves it as just the 3rd-largest. It's now dwarfed by Scotia and only 15% the size of HSBC.
  4. And why has JPM suddenly become a complete non-player in the monthly delivery process? Just last year, the JPM House and Customer accounts regularly accounted for more than half of the bi-monthly stops and issues on The Comex. This culminated in December when the JPM House (proprietary) account stopped a total of 6,254 contract or 96% of all deliveries that month. So far in 2014, JPM House has greatly diminished their participation and, over the past three delivery month, they've been almost entirely absent from the process.

These are all very important questions and, again, I don't have the answers. The CME has structured the Comex so that it's impossible to know for certain, regardless of what The Apologists are always claiming in their personal blogs. All we can do is project and guess, based upon accumulated wisdom and experience. We then have to wonder if our conclusions are even relevant. Do they even matter?

To that end, the only questions that stick in my mind are related to numbers 3 and 4 above.

Since it is easily verifiable that JPM has only issued/delivered 6,000 ounces of gold over the past five months, the primary question becomes just whom or what owns the gold that has been temporarily parked in the JPM Comex vault. Just by chance, we were able to catch 33 metric tonnes of perfect and precise deposits, followed by nearly 46 metric tonnes of equally perfect and precise withdrawals. Why was this gold parked for a while in JPMs vault? Where did it come from? Where is it now headed? Is this JPM proprietary gold and do these withdrawals, when combined with the greatly reduced delivery activity, indicate the JPM is on the verge of exiting Comex gold trading?

Again, I apologize for simply raising questions without being able to provide the answers. Perhaps the purpose of this post is simply this: If you think that The Comex is a shady, dirty and nasty den of thieves, then this deliberately opaque movement of gold into and out JPM's vaults will likely serve to reinforce that opinion.



Turd Ferguson's picture



On Thursday October 30, another three perfect and precise metric tonnes of gold were withdrawn from the JPM Comex gold vault. This brings the total withdrawal over the last month to at least 24 metric tonnes and drops the JPM eligible account all the way down to just 405,382 troy ounces.

As I type this, the entire JPM vault now holds just 581,819 ounces of gold, down by nearly 70% from the nearly 1,883,472 total seen as recently as last August.

According to the delivery reports, JPM has only delivered 60 contracts or 6,000 ounces over the same time period.

Again, the question is, who/what owns all of this gold that was parked and then withdrawn from the JPM vault. Unfortunately, we'll never know.

Turd Ferguson's picture

making this public


A heads up...I plan to flip this post public tomorrow morning and send it to the usual outlets.

mike97's picture


Only good thing on a terrible day.

btcgoldbull's picture

Re: making this public

Does that mean we need to keep our comments G-rated? cheeky

CPE's picture


I'm deleting my previous comments as this post will become public and some of the non-payers are rabid.

brokerk22's picture

At this point

I think we should all hope paper price goes lower. The lower it goes the sooner this breaks.

Dr. P. Metals's picture

It should be fun to read what the Miles Boys say today

i hope they don't have a coronary.  All signs however suggest that the wheels are going to come off this thing before EOY. I guess we'll see...

Clarki Stomias's picture


The Tooth Fairy isn't real?

btcgoldbull's picture

Reminder why we own gold and silver: protect purchasing power

                                                                          Jan 2000   Mar 2014     % Increase

Gold                                                                    289.5              1283.4        343%

Silver                                                                    5.42                 19.75        264%


Turd: Sorry for the C&P :-)

chipster's picture


Thought its worth a reality check. Most miners mine operate outside the US. Dollar is up strongly in last few months. Gold price in the currency in which most miners operate therefore is no where near as low as when we hit 1180 in 2013 for instance. Oil is down big. This is the major cost driver for miners. Hence miners are under less stress than last time gold was sub$1200. In my opinion this is a capitulation day, to be taken advantage of. Fingers crossed!

Marchas45's picture

What's the Big Deal?

We all know there's no gold in Ft. Knox, No Gold in BOE, No Gold in JPM's Vault. Everything is being Manipulated, Everything. Just Keep Stacking Everything. Your going to need it WTSHTF and it's coming to your Local Area, soon.laugh

NW VIEW's picture


We all knew these days were coming.  If we just focus on all the losses, we will lose more than the fiat that we have taught is worthless. When the shipwreck happens, it is time to grab a plank and swim to a shore of safety.

It is a good night to refocus on the good things we have stacked over a lifetime and that will bring Peace within.   I threw a turkey in the oven and we are having one of our family dinner nights.  Twelve of us and two older women who need fellowship.  I will enjoy the six grandkids and we will have a great time around the table.  If you can get here by six, you are invited.  Peace!

Markedtofuture's picture

Greenspan: Price of Gold Will Rise

Axel Merk, Merk Investments 

October 29, 2014

Any doubts about why I own gold as an investment were dispelled last Saturday when I met the maestro himself: former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan. It’s not because Greenspan said he thinks the price of gold will rise – I don’t need his investment advice; it’s that he shed light on how the Fed works in ways no other former Fed Chair has ever dared to articulate.  All investors should pay attention to this. Let me explain.

The setting: Greenspan participated on a panel at the New Orleans Investment Conference last Saturday. Below I provide a couple of his quotes and expand on what are the potential implications for investors.

Greenspan: “The Fed’s balance sheet is a pile of tinder, but it hasn’t been lit … inflation will eventually have to rise.”

Gamble's picture

Remember when

They used to fill teeth with gold? They're dentists ripping are teeth out one tooth at a time to get our gold filled teeth!!


time to bite down hard 

btcgoldbull's picture


Something's brewing at CITI, the new derivative king. How long till one of their risk control officers jumps (a.k.a. is pushed) off a tall building?

Mickey's picture


we know there are disconnects all over the place--Turds topic of this thread is one.

We know global annual production is 2500-3000 tons. We know china India and russia alone -consumers like us and their central banks are buying more than 4000 tons a year.There is a big shortfall and its impossible for just gold and silver to break the laws of supply and demand.

when this charade falls apart it should be rather interesting. My analogy is the biggest game of musical chairs ever.

Its what Harvey Organ and Rob Kirby brought up in recent months and which most of us  here who have been here for a while know in the backs of our minds--the trick is when does this break down and the banksters and govt folks get their fingers caught in the drawer, or better phrasing, do not get a chair.

we know the most recent trigger for this was the end of QE which we know the reason for ending QE (which should never have started years ago) is total BS as the economy is not great, housing is not great, jobs are not great and the banks are still in trouble up to their eyeballs (see Citi after hours announcement) .

what started out as a small problem years ago is now a monster of a problem. We have all heard the phrase:

"the truth will set you free"

and we have had anything but the truth from our govt, Fed, Banks and media. (revert back to cot data and the above info from Turd) and thus the lies get bigger.

When Organ and Kirby put a date on the implosion of Nov to Dec, I chucked to myself thinking like most  everyone else, they are right on the happening but will be wrong on the timing.

I am not so sure anymore. This could fall apart quickly. This just has the feeling of a big mess about to implode--do not ask for specifics, it just feels like we just reached a new level of FUBAR.

nothing makes sense.

US debt is up 80 billion this month and the month is not over-the debt increased 1.1 trillion in fy 2014, However, only 600 billion was bought by foreign countries--leaving a 500 billion shortfall.  so who is buying that shortfall in the past and who wil buy it in the future--and while we know its the banks with their excess reserves, it would have been "nice" if the BS was not piled higher and deeper by our govt and fed pretending that our treasuries issued are fully subscribed by outsiders.

It means we are running out of ideas and our fearless leaders do not want us to know and do not want our --er, major holders of treasuries to know nor having our adversaries know how weak we really are (but I bet Russia and China fully know) .

in fact yesterdays charade  of ending qe is probably more for china and russia and all the other holders of treasuries or those wanting to tank the dollar than a charade for us. Perhaps.

I have to think with these low prices for gold and silver we wil see some huge buying, which I think is the set up for Organs and Kirbys audacious prediction.

Having said all this--people should look carefully at the history of silver and gold prices as when they do move up, it becomes ferocious. Not making a prediction here but i recall day after day of 2-3% upmoves in silver. Which makes me nervous I am so hedged now; thus tomorrow I start to move my hedges from the triple inverses to put options--I still want the hedge but in a different way.

if this concept is correct, then the stock and bond markets wil get swamped. Of course we have been waiting for that 6 years now.

my 2 cents worth

Bohemian's picture


"Most miners mine operate outside the US. Dollar is up strongly in last few months. Gold price in the currency in which most miners operate therefore is no where near as low as when we hit 1180 in 2013 for instance. Oil is down big. This is the major cost driver for miners..."

Several miners reported yesterday, AH. Yamana reported for the 3Q -- $1 Billion Loss, due to write downs, one time write offs, and there are some new taxes in Chile, and some adjustments. Interesting report. All-in sustaining cash costs totaled $807 per gold-equivalent ounce. Barrick reported, all-in sustaining cash costs between $880 to $920 per ounce, and Agnico Eagle -- total cash costs on a by-product basis of $650 to $675 per ounce, all-in sustaining costs are $990 per ounce.

It seems to me that market owners/makers, using these numbers, can push the price down even more, so I will still wait for now.

Lamenting Laverne's picture

@ Turd et al

I often find myself engaging in wishful (conspiracy) thinking. I guess it helps me keeping up the spirits on days like this. So here is another one of my what-ifs:

I think it was Bohemian who commented the other day that there was a specific reason for Blythe to go public on CNBC like she did - that she wanted to go on record stating the "truth" that JPM itself did not have any proprietary directional bets and that JPM was only acting on behalf of customers. With that statement she basically said that JPM did not have a concentrated directional bet, but one of their clients did.

A while ago I speculated (maybe wildly) that a reason the East keeps supporting the US bond market at roll over (not adding - but still rolling over maturing debt) and the reason that the West accepts the continued flow of Gold to the East was because the East had started demanding that the interest on the debt was paid in gold instead of debased USD.

Now you, Turd, say that the round numbers going in and out of JPM suggests that the quantities are shipped as kilo bars instead of the less precise LGD bars. We also think we know that the new international trade/foreign exchange settlement system will have a relationship to newly refined and assayed kilobars. If it is not just paper bogus numbers, this suggests that JPM is a facilitating partner/participating in the new trade settlement system with China already now.

Also, remember how the Fed opened the Treasury auction system with direct access for the Chinese, so transactions could happen without primary dealers knowing about it? Back then it was only for buying USTs - not selling - but who knows what the access is used for really. And remember how 4 chinese Commercial Banks were licensed all of a sudden to operate in the US, one of which was the industrial and commodities bank, as far as I remember. And remember how JPM sold their commodities business off to Mercuria all of a sudden (other banks did the same and I think they also started getting out of the LME warehousing biz, if I remember correctly).

I think the East + Middle East wants commodities trade to become truly physical again (I remember a Saudi ex Oil Minister saying something like that back in 2008, I think) - and I think that they have said no commercial bank can be involved in commodities trade unless it is plain vanilla producer selling forward facilitation and that everyone else must back trades with phys to participate. I also think that they would love to see naked shorts fry in their own fat one day partly as punishment for distorting the market and partly as a necessity to provide justification for the profound changes introduced to the market after the BBQ.

Andrew Maguire once said that the big Eastern buyers in London did not take any prisoners. I believe him. 

I tend to think that JPM is the conduit between the Fed and the PBOC. And that it is true that the big deep pocketed Comex long is China - and that the shorts provoking waterfalls via JPM were/is China too. And that JPM is receiving Gold from the Fed, facilitates a conversion to Kilobars while "in storage" and then ships the Gold East on the books. Whether it is refined in Switzerland or the US is less important for the "external" books, I guess.

@ Turd: Do you know if the house account is merely a book keeping thing or if that necessarily entails physical storage in the Comex warehouse in the US at all times? (Not allowing for a transfer out for refinement and back again). And do you know if anyone has examined the US export numbers (you know the ones that once upon a time showed enormous amounts of gold colored paint exported) for the US lately? (as in since the Chinese banking licenses and opening of UST system and Blythe's appearance on CNBC?)

Anyways - looong intro - I am thinking that if it is true that the East is out to fry the paper speculators and the algo-rapists and China is the big Comex long and the primary Comex "waterfall short" to unlock as much physical in London as possible at as low prices as possible - is the current thrashing not exactly what you would expect to see?

If I was the Head Gold Procurement Officer in China, I would consider the Swiss vote and consider if there would be anymore phys to wring out of the general market at lower prices before the Swiss potentially joins the party and spoils all the fun. I would also like to finish off planned "interest rate" transactions (my speculation) via JPM before other countries see the Swiss vote result and potentially begins asking the Fed for stored Gold like the Germans did.

A smack lower would achieve Gold looking unattractive to Swiss voters, while testing if anymore strong hands can be chopped off before finding a new price range presumably higher (according to JW, Kirby, Organ) to explore.

I am also wondering - if this smack down shows that no more phys can be extracted at this level - if the Chinese would then go ahead and spring the Shanghai surprise (as per JW) before the Swiss vote in order to ensure that China gets to buy the first wave of unlocked phys at higher prices and not the Swiss - in case the vote is a yes.

If they sprung the surprise after a smack down but before the swiss vote they might even achieve an impact on the Swiss vote in favor of gold and thus provide a significant demand for phys in the market for 5 years going forward - helping to stabilize their surprise as correct and support the physical market in Shanghai. 

If this current price level is "dry" and they did spring the surprise, they would achieve a perfect storm: 

1) Get retail phys before the Swiss.

2) Have comex contracts in front of the Swiss in the line for delivery, when the mines have produced and delivered to the Comex, as I don't believe that China would accept cash settlement, but still use a potential default as marketing for the new system.

3) Fry the shorts, who cannot deliver phys, to hell and back both in dollar losses due to rising surprise price and due to lawsuits that will last the next decade - setting a solid example. This is assuming there are any entities willing to open new contract longs that the shorts can buy back to close their burning shorts.

2-3a) Alternatively, if no new entities are willing to open new contracts, China's Comex long position can be used not to demand delivery - but to control precisely how long the shorts will fry as it will be the current Comex longs who decide when they are ready to sell and allow the shorts to buy to cover.    

4) Fry the broader paper gold derivatives (as per JW) - which will make the Shanghai exchange look more attractive - and set a solid example. It might even provide justification that currency trading involving the XAG and XAU crosses can only be done with physical deposit to the brokerage in the future. 

Just a bunch of rambling, I know. Just thinking out loud. Though - I really do believe that when China & Co. are ready (as in no more phys to be extracted at current levels) - they will indeed take no prisoners.

vonburpenstein's picture


.....If ifs and buts were candies and nuts.....Christmas.
In all seriousness, everything you propose is more than plausible. This is hands down the best novel Tom Clancy didn't get a chance to write

Hawkman's picture

F-it, PMs are on sale. I'm buying.

Putting in my order with JMB as we speak.

And if they push it to 15 and then 14 and then 10...I'm buying then too.

"So, what in the name of Jon Corzine is going on here?"  <--- HehNice one TF.  

lakedweller2's picture


Watch for 1180 if and when...the hui has taken a massive dive. Still not at 1180.

SilveryBlue's picture

LL You have a beautifully complex mind

How about this: China already has comex assuming the position.

Strategy 1 - collect every last scrap of gold that can be rattled loose.

Strategy 2 - use inability to deliver as leverage to get beneficial deals on other commodities - real estate, businesses, Hotels, Vaults, Industries etc

They have to get rid of their foreign curr... LOOK! Russians! Ebola! UFOs!


Safety Dan's picture

(No subject)


4 oz's picture

Halloween is Sorta a Holiday

Halloween is sorta a holiday, right?

BOY--Could I use some JACKASS!

Keg's picture

I must still be sleeping

I must still be sleeping and having a nightmare about looking at gold and silver charts.  Somebody please wake me up.

Keg's picture

It's Greenspan's fault

I think I just figured it out.  This week Greenspan said you should own some gold.  Since he has been wrong about everything else everyone decided that was the indication to sell.

pm_newbie's picture

have we all been had?

zerocd's picture

Firesale Today

I am almost having fun.

The sheer power of the fiat dollar is without bounds.

I will get some cool clean sunshine today and endeavor to take the wife out dancing.

Holding on to dry powder, saw some $15 handles this AM and don't see what's going to stop this waterfall.

Sub $1180 Au!! Might have to get some of that also.

Happy Halloween all!


SilveryBlue's picture

CPM Group is not "the industry"

Correct me if I am wrong here folks - CPM are Not miners. They are Advisors.

CPM are not a tick on the producers rump.

Jeffrey M. Christian, Managing Director  Ahahahaha

buzlightening's picture

It's become acutely obvious to me the paper metals asset

prices are diving to the lowest possible value before a default.  Doubt it will be a declared default publicly.  Likely already a default in silver but not self evident to the public.   It's all a mark to fantasy financial world!   When it comes to light how all the paper assets are just paper pulp fiction, it will astound joe six pack and he'll hit the hard liquor by the gallons; then panic.  There's not a person out there who can make sense of it all except under total bullshit guidelines.  What a standard to mark anything of asset value=bullshit guidelines.   No standard out there!  All rehypothecated; leveraged collateral to the hilt in any and all things of substantial genuine value.  Priced in mark to fantasy guidelines; whatever value assigned by lying sacks of bull shit for power and gain.  You tell me what the results of this will be when exposed publicly and it will!  How could it not when every econophile lie is unraveling at break neck speed, to be dashed upon immutable economic laws.  Laws which can not be changed.  You've got an out of control debt gone wild ponzi shit house moving at warp speed and a 1/4 mile from a 25 mile an hour horse shoe switch back.  You can not tell me, a person who knows there's laws which govern our galaxy, universe, earth, and individual lives, will not be held accountable for the wreck less financial behavior of our gov goon platoon; denies order in any and all things.  The only order from this chaos created, will be a return to the rule of economic laws, after complete destruction of the financial shit house created by babbling psycho heresy squirting reckless animals living above the law.  Lets be frank and know that what you have within your reach will be all you own when it comes to the pinnacle of the impending financial chaos.  100% possession is the law among the lawless rat bastards, so get those discretionary frns turned into something of substances fast, as the clock is ticking and about to strike mid-night. 

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