Getting too close to home

It is Monday afternoon and the markets just closed for the day. As you know, metals were hammered all morning and stayed low. Several old regulars showed up in the comments who seem to only appear on down days. But the frustration levels don’t seem as high as in the past. Perhaps it is we the patient who remain.

What a week last week. I should have seen it coming. In fact, Craig warned us it was coming. How is it that I listen to the podcasts and miss his warnings? No don’t answer that one. Well, I thought Friday’s HUI chart for miners looked strong and I didn’t want to be on the sidelines over a long weekend and miss a pop in AU on Tuesday morning. A new Turdite friend expressed my feelings pretty well in a private email: “F- F- F- F- F!”  I felt he same, but my frustration was directed at myself. Of course our more experienced traders here will say “tsch, tsch, tsch.”  But I know that metals will recover, that this up and down pattern of spec-fleecing that Turd explains to us again every month will continue.

Since you may be reading for metals commentary, here goes: This recent beat down keeps us within a down-trending channel that began on July 10th, seeing ups and downs, but staying in a $30 wide channel with just a few false breakouts. I am hoping for a dead cat bounce back up to 1275 to exit my long position, then I’ll seek to buy back after Sept 25. (If you have a good suggestion to buy and hold for this 401K money locked down in this crappy retirement account, I am all ears).

Gold continues to trend down, likely to hit 1240 by options expiration at the end of the month. Isn’t that a coincidence-- when have we seen this pattern before.  The last time we were at that price was a couple of days after the June Options expiration. What better way to discourage and discredit September bulls, fleece the option trading speculator sheep (and me), and generally discourage the precious metal community that was hoping for a big month. I fear it is not to be.

As an investor, I impress few. The lessons I have learned have come too late, after I blew out my trading account (16K) in 2008, and after I have cautiously refunded it twice (2K each) and blown it out twice more. I was unable to predict the manipulation moves with just the right timing to trade options. Now that I have learned a few more lessons, I am nearly unwilling to trade a manipulated, Fed-managed market. Even if I make a bit of fiat chasing the FEDs trades, I’ll feel guilty and defeated. Days like this are infuriating, Even if I had been short, my gains do not assuage my fury.

But what gained my attention this week, and prompted me to write this week, as we close in on mid-September, are my recollections of predictions that something may happen this month or next, that we may indeed be approaching some system-changing pivot point. Rob Kirby got my attention two weeks ago. Of course, Jim Willie always piles on the evidence thicker. Then a series of ZH articles began to cite financial luminaries as concerned for the near future. Just from the past three weeks we have seen the following:

I need not mention a plethora of other threats that include Fukushima radiation, plots to depopulate the globe, HAARP, false flags, global warming, uh, cooling, uh  something, alien invasion, and of course “Revenge of the Yeti”

I hope you didn't watch that. Of course, a never ending stream of bad news articles flows from ZH, which become oppressive to read. I used to read all of them; these days I just skim headlines. It is the same week after week: Bad economic news and stocks go higher. But lately I see a greater conflation of stock crash warnings, terrorist warnings, trouble warnings from trading pros, more than normal--and now the prophets of doom are even ramping up their jeremiads (yes, I listen to their warnings also), claiming that something big will begin shortly and be completed throughout 2015. (link… may have to wash through lots of gravel to find the nuggets).

I chatted with a friend in Indiana on the phone this morning. Somebody sneaked out to his farm in the countryside, and stole his truck and his daughter’s car.  At least three drivers were in on the caper and I cannot imagine that they came out to a man’s farm to rip him off at night unarmed. Had he  awakened and ambled out with a shotgun there would have been a shootout. Who their risks their life to steal an old truck? I smell an inside job. Is this also a sign of the times, that people get this desperate, to steal from people they know? That getting a little too close to home.

Is our present bearish pattern a harbinger of something worse than normal (is there such a thing?). Is this a final shake-out before the end? Are these warnings from every quarter actionable? Should any of us change our plans in response, accelerate one aspect of our prepping or another? Well… I think not …

I had a candid talk with another friend last night about prepping. He has some food stored up, has the means to protect his family, and actually lives in a fairly good location—out of the town, but not too remote. We agreed that it is critical to have enough items stored away that you can survive and initial breakdown in our traditional economy. Stores may be out of food. Electricity may get cut off. Petrol stations may run out. But eventually, such necessities will likely be replenished… but within a different economy. After some discussion we also agreed that one cannot have enough food to survive indefinitely. Most of us cannot have enough metals to live on the rest of your life.  Most of us are on budgets, making decisions about what to prep, how much to stack, and still trying to enjoy life while it is somewhat normal.

The point of this meandering ranting ramble is that change is occurring all around us, and it could make a few quick jumps here and there. How do we navigate it, keep our sanity, and still live the best we can while these things unfold outside of our control? I say that after making it through an initial period of change and turmoil, after society tries to settle into a new normal (unless we are attacked by aliens—then all bets are off), after all that, we need to be ready to begin a sustainable lifestyle, minimizing dependence on the economy or government for our life needs.

Stackers, preppers and any sensible person whose eyes are opened need to remain steadfast in transitioning to a sustainable lifestyle in the best location we are able to manage. Whether that is in the city, suburbs, country or remote area is up to each person. But sustainability is a key.

Another key will be community. Achieving a sustainable lifestyle is difficult and even more so on your own. I am 55 years old now and simply cannot build the things I used to build as quickly as I used to. The idea of framing out a cottage by myself is daunting. I need some strong young people helping me. I can provide the knowledge, pass it on, and they can provide the strength. Older people can help the young and foolish to survive. My grandmother, at age 85, had a fabulous garden. She knew how to grow anything—and how to preserve it too. I wish she were still here now, but she did pass on some of that knowledge to us. Whether young or old, everyone has something they can bring to a community that will make life more enjoyable and provide hope for a better future.

The actions I’ll be taking at this point are to stay the course, seek a sustainable lifestyle with friends and relatives, and look for a movement that might have a chance to succeed, a cause I can be involved in.

There has been talk on the blog this morning about taking action. In 1775, Patrick Henry advised Virginians to take action, arguing that reconciliation was too late, that armies sent to the colonies were meant for subjugation, and that action was the only choice. But people still did not believe they could win, therefore  little action followed his passionate speech. Several months later, Thomas Paine laid out a reasoned case that the colonists could overcome Great Britain in a war for independence—and indeed that it was God’s will that they do so.

After Tom Paine persuaded the colonists that God would be on their side and that they could actually win the war, the vote in the continental Congress shifted from only 1/3 supporting the cause to 11 of 13 colonies voting in favor at the Constitutional Convention.  And they won the war.

I hear from most of you that we are waiting for the evil empire to commit “suicide by stupidity” as their Keynesian fiat system self-implodes due to its inherent weaknesses. It seems as though few of us see enough hope for victory if we were to join a cause—be it Occupy Wall Street, the Tea Party, or simply getting politically active in support of awakened candidates.

From where I sit, no effective and winnable cause has arisen that will restore sound money, eliminate central banking, punish criminal bankers and their political lap-dogs, break the system of corporate lobbying of politicians, castrate the neocons and end their war-mongering, ferret out & exorcize the rock and roth-types from the bowels of the polis, then find the popular backing to re-establish our republican governments on their constitutional foundations where the governed once again are in the driver’s seat.

I am looking for that political movement. Good sailors bail out the ship and try to save the cargo, rather than let or encourage it to sink. Simply standing by and letting the current system fail nearly guarantees that the criminals responsible will slink into the dark corners, begin their plotting anew, and weasel their way back into power in whatever leadership and system fills the vacuum. No, we must take action with a political movement that gains power legitimately, without violence, with the backing of a majority and brings the perpetrators and traitors to swift and sure justice.

That is what I am looking for. But perhaps it starts closer to home than I realize.


Mariposa de Oro's picture


Now to read the article.  wink

Mariposa de Oro's picture

getting active

Dr J,

Getting active/involved is what is needed, however, many Americans don't want to hear about 'it'.  Granted, some are starting to realize that something isn't right but it seems the majority are still in denial.  How do you get past that?

MUDbone's picture

Bo Polny

I know he is ridiculed here, but he did correctly call the June rally a false breakout. Anyways, from his latest :

So, will Gold head to $2000 next? YES. Will Gold ever see $1180 or lower? Absolutely NOT! Will Gold make $2000 this year? After 3-years of price suppression (manipulation) $2000 is mathematically possible with a Spike. Spike or no Spike, the Gold cycle as forecasted in the May 2014 Interview is almost COMPLETE, all that is still missing is $2000 Gold either this year of by mid 2015 latest. Out of courtesy to my subscribers, Time Points are exclusive to subscribers.

These are the Final Summer Lows. Whether you believe or not believe, that is your personal choice; but TIME will expose the truth just as it has since the May 2014 interview and you will soon see that these prices WERE in fact the Final Summer Lows as forecasted in the May 2014 interview!

thurd aye's picture

thats my spot thurd


thurd aye's picture

position ag/au

Now officially underwater for the first time I believe,in silver.But,BUT,still ahead on gold and the two are still ahead.So,FU Ms Nuland,Bumhole,hunt a Bidet et al.I keep my ounces,you keep your wars.Peace to the world.

Thurd aye)))

achmachat's picture

thurd aye

I think that silver needs a spot price of around 25€ (that's 32.2 USD today) per troy ounce for me.. otherwise I'm very very much underwater if God-forbid I need to convert to currency in case of an emergency.

Unfortunately, yesterday a good friend of mine was forced to convert 30 Canadian Gold Maples to currency; had some very urgent bills to pay. He almost didn't lose on that transaction, but letting go of 30 ounces of real gold wealth hurts. a lot.

thurd aye's picture

"after I blew out my trading

"after I blew out my trading account (16K) in 2008, and after I have cautiously refunded it twice (2K each) and blown it out twice more"

another Bushism...fool me once etc.

I am mightily surprised at your trading,twenty grand means you have thrown away what, sixteen ounces of pure gold. I thought I was bad when I misplaced/completely lost, a proof set of fractional krugerrands in my move back to Europe.But you win there Doc. Quelle Domage as they say.

worse things happen at sea,hey?)))

edit....yes,achmachat, lot of hurting going on ,but strong hands hey?

ivars's picture

This Fibo sequence in USD/RUB

This Fibo sequence in USD/RUB chart indicates certain deescalation / stabilization in Ukraine situation until December, then increases in tensions after that, and some resolution latest in Aug 2015..Again, early H2 2015:

Does that coincides with other cycles somehow? Armstrong has a target date 2015, 75  for significant change. 

To me this is the date USA will:

1) increase interest rates
2) OR start new QE. 

In first case, Chinese will be ready to enter shared with USD reserve currency mode. 
In second case, USD will go bust very soon.

argentus maximus's picture

Bo Polny

MUDBone: " ...  but he did correctly call the June rally a false breakout. ..."

My recollection is that he said on 11 August that the low at 1 August of 1281 was the final summer low ..... and everything after that was to be THE breakout.

Polny: " ... The next day following the July 22, 2014 post Gold dropped $18 and then again on August 1, 2014 dropped an additional $12.50 into a FINAL Summer low of $1281.00The 2014 Summer Gold Low is COMPLETE!  Out of courtesy to subscribers, posting the summer low was delayed by one week. ..."

See the whole text for yourself here:

And to be sure the August low was 1280.57, but it seems to me that yesterday gold was at 1251.65.

Maybe I'm mistaken .....

Track record ... track record ..... I feel like a broken record .....

Turlock's picture

Thanks Doc

You are an honest man and not afraid of self uncommon strength.  You write for all of us who essentially see things , even economics, through a moral lens. What more can be said?   The rule of law is a joke. Corruption abounds. Political bureaucrats produce regulations and policies that protect their privilege, the people be dammed and impoverished. I wonder how many billions of dollars elderly savers have been cheated of since 2007 when the decision to save the big banks was made.   Here is a question for you. Do we see the world as it is, or, do we see the world as we are?

Green Lantern's picture

Why I Think This World Should

Why I Think This World Should End

A little commentary on what's going on in the World by Prince EA.  Who dat?   Just some regular guy who has laser sharp commentary on world events with a side plate of optimism served raw.. 

​Incase you missed it, his commentary on solving the worlds problems starting with Ferguson. 

DeaconBenjamin's picture

another Bushism...fool me once etc.


DeaconBenjamin's picture

Flight MH17 'hit by numerous objects': report

A man walks on July 26, 2014 by flowers left by parents of an Australian victim of the crash laying on a piece of the Malaysia Airlines plane MH17 near the village of Hrabove (Grabovo), in the Donetsk region.  AFP Photo

Flight MH17 that crashed over rebel-held eastern Ukraine split into pieces during flight after being hit by numerous high-speed objects, said a report released by the Netherlands on Sept. 9.
"Flight MH17... operated by Malaysia Airlines broke up in the air probably as the result of structural damage caused by a large number of high-energy objects that penetrated the aircraft from outside," said the preliminary report into the disaster that claimed 298 lives, most of them Dutch citizens.
The report, which comes almost two months after MH17 was went down, also said the Boeing 777-200 was airworthy when it took off from Amsterdam and was staffed by a "qualified and experienced crew."   There were no technical problems," the 34-page report stated.
The report said the fact that the plane was hit by high-speed objects "explains the abrupt end to data registration on the recorders, the simultaneous loss of contact with air traffic control and the aircraft's disappearance from radar."        

The Boeing was blown out of the sky over eastern Ukraine as it was flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur on July 17, killing all on board including 193 Dutch citizens.
Kyiv and the West accused pro-Russian separatists of shooting down the plane with a surface-to-air missile supplied by Moscow.
Russia, which denies mounting Western claims of direct involvement in the five-month conflict in Ukraine, has blamed government forces for the attack.


Hammer's picture

Good read Dr.J

Just when you think you get going, then...............

Joseph Warren's picture

Recently I came across an old receipt . . .

from a purchase of a 1 oz gold Maple Leaf. My price for the coin was below $ 1000. I know that doesn't help some people, but it did help me to keep things in perspective when the manipulations happen.

Dr Jerome's picture


Most of us see the world as we are.

But there is lots of places to live between the two ends of the dichotomy you cite. Events and messages are always interpreted--often wrongly. We have a set of what I call "hermeneutical lenses" through which we view everything and depending on which one we pull out and do the viewing, our interpretation changes. Those among us (and many regularly post here) have some very clear lenses and are likely getting as close to the truth as one can. Other people just have a single lens, usually clouded with ignorance and certainly see the entire world as they are. I think that most of us come here for those clear perspectives of how the world is provided by Craig and other posters.

I know that I am more "enlightened" for hanging around here.

Thurd aye, Alas about my trading. I paid good money to learn from one of those "trading schools back in early 2007. As we finished up the classes, they encouraged us to dive in the deep water with the sharks as the markets were getting very volatile. I was  broke within weeks as we hit a very bumpy patch. then I joined a trading club in Dayton and started trading complex options arrangements (spreads and iron condors). We were just starting to do well when Lehman went bankrupt. I was an overconfident idiot.

erewenguy's picture

Good time to ring the register

Good time to ring the register here. Looking for a relief rally by the end of the week. No guarantees what happens after that though wink

gold @ 1256

silver @ 18.98

Hammer's picture

Try looking at the chart in

Try looking at the chart in yen.

Lamenting Laverne's picture


... pruning my (no longer so new) gills in muddy water, I am:

- looking in amazement at the pink lady apples on my table that have been forgotten sitting there in a plastic bag for 3 weeks during a move after spending up to another month in the fridge - still looking juicy, non-wrinkled and without a spot in sight. Needless to say, I have abandoned the idea of actually eating them for fear they might be plastic in disguise......

- wondering about the significance of the fact that the USD has risen sharply since mid-summer - and everything else has fallen against it - except one - the CNY. In recent days, after big moves earlier - there have also been some resilience in the TRY and RUB. Are we actually beginning to see the long awaited reserve shift play out right now, I wonder?.

- noting the Japanese, German and US 10yr started to sell off at the same time in late August. So currencies had been shuffling around for some time before bonds started moving the other way. Did bonds decide, that this is not just the regular currency debasement rotation with the usual jawboning between CB's?.

Or will it just be new all-time-stock and bond highs again next week with nothing to see here.....?

Somehow, it feels to me like a shoe is about to drop...

goldcom's picture

Thanks - DB for MH17 info

Multiple hits would fit into the comments made by the Flight Controller saying two Ukrainian/Kiev Military Jets were near the airliner. If that is how it went down, why wouldn't they use a rocket? One big blast would make to harder to determine wouldn't it?

Thanks Dr Jerome for another great article, I read em all.

erewenguy's picture

Someone's gonna get hurt when the spring breaks

Upper channel resistance still approaching the 200 dMA.

Sooner or later someone is going to yell "FIRE!" and the exits are going to get pretty crowded.

The wild card is lower oil prices which reduces cost of mining.  Seems to be stabilized near 93 ish.


ancientmoney's picture

The leader of the Deep State . . . executioner Obama

The Deep State is essentially the government we don't elect, (CIA, military, DOD, DOJ, Federal Reserve, UST, DHS, etc. combined with big business--Wall Street, banking (JPM, GS, etc.), food production (Monsanto, etc.), arms and defense manufacturers, etc.  Here is a quote from an excellent paper that should be read by all who do not understand how we have come to this point--no rule of law except for the little people:

"“Obama is just a willing executioner. From the ruling class’s point of view, he’s the perfect figurehead because his mere appearance confuses and disarms so many. He seems to have spent his whole life trying to get chosen to play Judas. And that’s all there is in his resume” (Whitney, M. 2014; see also Ford, G. 2014a; Ford, G. 2014b; Chomsky, N. 2014).

Hammer's picture

Spanish and Portuguese

Spanish and Portuguese markets getting punished today....knock on from Scotland referendum fears. If the vote goes to stay in The UK, there will be a sharp rebound...........but no one wants to muck about and guess so money is being taken to the side for safety I think.

Lamenting Laverne's picture

@ Hammer

And Catalunya has its own independence vote on the 9th of November. Should the Scottish turn out to be a yes - odds are the Catalans may be emboldened despite the threats from Madrid.

thurd aye's picture

I can tell you are a good guy

I can tell you are a good guy Doc.What we learned made us stronger,no?


Urban Roman's picture

Where do we find these good sailors?

Some folks have been waiting 50 years for justice to find the ones who shot JFK.

SIlverbee's picture

Bo Polny is ridiculed for a reason

He stated categorically Gold to $2000 in 2014.

Now on Silverdoctors he states end of 2014 or mid 2015 at the latest.


brokerk22's picture

get it over with

C'mon lets just get this shit over with and take the dollar to 90 or 100 and crash gold and silver to whatever its going to get to but no they have to do this like water torture and destroy sentiment. Not to mention the markets, price discovery, morality, and much more.

brokerk22's picture


GLD under 120 soon.

don quixote's picture

As Willie says, no point

As Willie says, no point paying much attention to the comex gold/silver prices. It's part of the black is white, war is peace nouveau reality: paper is wealth and gold/silver is trash.

As part of my prepping, I'm taking a weekend course on building a Rocket Mass Heater.

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