The Paper Armageddon Portfolio, One Year Later

As some of you may recall, I published an article here at TFMR one year ago in August of 2013 titled The Paper Armageddon Portfolio.  In this piece I outlined a rationale for investing in certain sectors from a “hard assets/tangible value” perspective that would reflect the TFMR understanding of the ongoing Keynesian process of QE, artificially low interest rates, market manipulation, and dollar devaluation.  Within those sectors, I selected multiple stocks from companies I felt would outperform the sector as a whole. The general idea was to come up with a list of companies who were poised to not only survive the current debt creation/paper ponzi economy, but would potentially offer solid returns in the coming paradigm where tangible and productive assets will be worth far more than today’s paper promises. So one year later I thought it would be worthwhile to check back in on this investing thesis to see how these picks and sectors fared and to discuss what we might learn from their performance over the last year.

The article I originally posted is here, but to summarize, I outlined four sectors oriented around hard assets and/or the real-world production of tangible goods.  The four I chose were 1. Farmland,  2. Timber and grazing,  3. Energy and commodities, and  4. Railroads (which I surmised would be poised to grow in a high fuel costs/post-Petrodollar environment, and to take market share from the currently dominant but fuel inefficient trucking industry).

Let’s assume that, as I recommended in the article, Turdites looked at this list and spent a few weeks doing their own research and due diligence on these companies, then chose to invest a few weeks later.  Here is a breakdown of the 1 year performance of these individual stocks I chose within these sectors in my original list.  Each entry shows ticker symbol, price change over the last year, % gain, dividend yield, then what a $10,000 investment in that stock would be worth today, and finally how much dividend one would have been paid:


Ticker      Price change  % gain    Div%                             Current value    + Div.  

CRESY-   8.00 to 11.62 (+45%)  Div  2.9% --- 10k invested = $14,500, +290

SCPZF-    2.65 to 3.03 (+14.3%)  Div 0%    ---   10k=  11,430

LAND-     16.26 to 12.31, (-24.2%)  Div 3%  --- 10k=7,580,  + 300

Timber and Grazing:

TPL-  85.76 to 200, (+133.2%)  Div 0.2%  --- 10k  = 23,320 + 200

PCH- 38.56 to 42.70, (+10.7%)  Div 3.4%   ---  10k  = 11,070, +340

PCL- 43.7 to 40.91,  (-6.3%)  Div 4.3%    ---  10k = 9,370   +430


DBC-   26.74 to 24.96, ( – 6.6%)  Div 0%  ---  10k = 9,400

WHZ-  12.87 to 12.12, (-5.9%) Div 20.5%   --- 10k = 9,410, +2,050

SDR-    13.5 to 6.7, (-50.3%)  Div 24.4%    --- 10k  = 4,970 +2,440


CP-      82.5 to 200.46,(+142.9%)  Div  0.7%   ---  10k = 24,290  + 70

GWR-  86.5 to 98.01, ((+13.3%)  Div 0%      ---  10k  = 11,330

NSC-   72.16 to 106.75, (+47.9%) Div 2.2%   ---   10k = 14,790  +220

Total:  Hypothetical $120,000 invested (10k each stock), 1yr total ROI =31.5%, now worth $157,800 (current stock value + Div)

Not too shabby-  a healthy 31.5% gain for the year strongly outpaced the S&P just for the original list.  But the hive-mind of Turdville is far smarter than any of us are by ourselves, and one of the things I asked in the original article was for Turdites to examine and comment on these companies and make suggestions they thought would be helpful for the list.  During this discussion, Turdites noted that there were serious concerns or problems with three of the companies I listed, and I found their rationale for avoiding these companies to be both well informed, and quite persuasive.  I noted this in the comments section, and based on my fellow Turdites critique, I excluded three of these companies from this list ( LAND, WHZ and SDR) in my own investments.

Not surprisingly, the brilliant folks here had smelled the stinkers and these companies wound up being dogs over the last year.  By dropping these as the comments section suggested, the returns on the final “Turdite informed” portfolio were really quite something:  For a hypothetical 90,000 invested, (10k each stock),  1yr total ROI = 56.25%, now worth $140,630 (current stock value + div).

So the picks within this investment thesis, run through the filter of the razor-sharp Turdville comments section, produced a 1 year gain of 56.25%.  Boom, bitchez!

.     .     .

So what can we take away from all this?  Well, I would suggest a couple of things but as usual, the best conclusions will be found in the comments section here, and I would encourage all of you to offer your impressions of what we might learn.  For me, this is what I take away from this exercise:

1.  Big money believes in the overall Turdville hard assets investment thesis

We don’t hear much about this on MSNBC (big shocker, right?) but these returns so far outpace the broader indexes that I suspect we are seeing big money trying to quietly build positions in companies that either own physical assets (like timber or grazing lands) or are positioned to thrive in a high energy costs environment (railroads).  For decades now, financials have been the place to be for big money, but that is not where money is flowing over the last year- this list kicked butt over any financial sector index fund you can find.  So one takeaway is that, although the hard assets investing community in general is still given the “tinfoil hat” treatment publicly in mainstream financial commentary, large money flows tell us that more and more deep pockets are quietly coming around to our way of thinking.  They are positioning themselves for what we have seen coming for years now, but this movement is still not talked about much… yet.  If one were cynical, one might think that big money would not allow the press to inform John Q Public about this until big money was already positioned for the ride.  And we are nothing if not cynical!

2.  Gold and Silver prices have yet to reflect these trends

No surprise to anyone here, but gold and silver should be doing extremely well in this environment and are vastly undervalued at current prices.  The broader trends are confirming the overall investment thesis of TFMR-  that the Keynesian debt creation economy has only one path it can follow and that path will eventually lead to a harsh revaluation downwards of all paper and paper based valuations.  In short, we are in the process of leaving the world where paper ,debt, and Fed-driven fictional valuations are king, and are slowly entering a new paradigm where tangible and/or productive assets will rise to the top of the heap. The gains for the companies on my list reflect this.   Gold and silver should be reflecting this, but aren’t… yet.  For now, the monetary metals are the bargain-basement, blue-light special of the decade, and maybe the century.  Stack ‘em up.

3.  Why are hard assets/companies rising but the metals aren’t?  The “M” word.

I am sure certain traders (especially those who rhyme with “pan”) will harf-up a hairball at hearing this, but I think the performance of this hard-asset portfolio over the last year, in contrast to what gold and silver have done, can be seen in a broader context as more evidence of the dreaded “M” word-  manipulation.  I posted on this a few months ago, but we all know that in normal times, gold acts the "thermometer of money creation", and both for its intrinsic value and as a hedge against the financial repression of artificially low interest rates, gold usually keeps pace or even outpaces currency devaluation.  And yet, ever since the massive attack of September 2011 starting on the day of the Swiss Franc devaluation announcement, it has not.   But it occurred to me that if the price of gold is being gamed (as it surely is) maybe we could find another proxy-measure that would show this... something that acts like gold would act, if gold were not so heavily manipulated.

I realized that farmland would share many qualities with gold and could be an excellent comparison. Like gold, farmland is a long-term store of value, and because it produces a crop it also has intrinsic value.  Sales data are available, and it is so widely traded on such an individual basis (there are no effective institutions that can control or manipulate its price) that farmland might well act quite similarly to how gold would act... if gold were allowed to trade freely.

So I found a reliable dataset (the Iowa Farmland Value Survey) and charted the results against gold.  The black line chart shows average farmland price per acre, for each year for the last ten years, against the weekly gold chart for the last decade:

The price of farmland tracked the price of gold incredibly closely year over year... right up until the famous attack on gold and silver in September of 2011.  Since then, farmland has continued to rise but gold and silver have clearly been successfully shoved to the downside. To me, this chart shows quite plainly that the scale and intensity of PM manipulation was ratcheted up considerably starting at that time (as many of us who have followed these markets have sensed) and that it was successful in "breaking the relationship" between Fed-induced financial repression and gold price, at least for now.  They were not able to do the same to farmland prices, however, and the continuing rise clearly reflects the ongoing process of currency devaluation.  In short, farmland is doing what gold is supposed to do in a freely-traded market, presumably because gold (through paper manipulation) is easily controlled, while farmland sales and prices are not.

This also suggests to me that the snap-back for gold and silver could be quite something.

4.  Even for tangible asset companies, current prices are high…  so I’ll wait

I have to be honest, I could not bring myself to buy these companies today- the valuations are just too dang high!  I noted in my article what a great company I thought Canadian Pacific is, but there is no way I’m paying 200 bucks per share for that sucker.  The same goes for most of these companies.  I may be wrong on this, but the entire market is so overvalued that I cannot in good conscience buy anything at these levels, so there will be no Paper Armageddon Portfolio II.  What I will do, however, is to wait in the tall grass and bide my time.  I believe this market is poised for a major correction and whether it happens in six weeks or in sixty, I want to have cash on the sidelines and be ready to invest, based on the hard assets thesis and working from this list of sectors.  My personal plan is to begin to average in, but only starting after we see a +20% correction in the overall market then slowly average into positions for the long term, knowing full well that a correction could go as deep as 50% or more and that my early investments may be losers for a time.  Obviously, we will need to be on our toes and be strongly invested in metals, tangibles, etc. in the mean-time, because there is no telling what may happen once the Fed’s carefully balanced perpetual dollar debt machine starts spitting gears.  Nonetheless, for now cash is king and metals are a must. Keep ‘em handy and be ready to deploy both, when bargains arise and opportunity presents itself!

5.  Get the stock certificates in-hand…  Turdite Nick Elway shows you how

At the end of the comments in the original article, longtime Turdite Nick Elway posed a series of outstanding comments and instructions on how to actually obtain the stock certificates for shares you own.  His posts unfortunately got buried at the end of the thread, but should be MUST READING for Turdites.  Rather than having your broker “owe” you the stocks, you can separate your ownership of these companies from the middle man (who might be, and likely is, a bankrupt institution that you do not want to rely on if the financial SHTF).

Nick’s comments start here ( and continue down the page.  Copy and print them out, because this is excellent information.  Thank you Nick-  you da man!!!

Stay frosty out there.


F.Capra's picture


Thanks for your scholarship!

F. Capra

ancientmoney's picture

Pining 4 . . . thanks for even more proof. . .

that we are still right--just early.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Thats outstanding


Thank you, Pining!

(Maybe we should start a TFMR Hedge Fund?) surprise

Turd Ferguson's picture

Since this is a public


Since this is a public thread, I want to strongly encourage EVERYONE to read this, particularly the naysayers who always show up to badmouth gold and try to convince everyone to sell.

meegoreng1's picture


Just signed up with Jim Comiskey. Mentioned your name. Bought some oil futures. Will be buying grains soon.

Turd Ferguson's picture

He's a good man


And he works his ass off. His partner Teddy is always available, too.

(Full disclosure: I receive no compensation in this case and I'm not a "referring broker", though Jim will freely admit that he owes me quite a few beers for all of the business I've sent him over the past few years...)

Response to: Craig
silver66's picture

Very good article

I will be sending this to some collegues in the investment business in Canada. Somtimes an expert is someone from out of town.


F.Capra's picture

For Those Short The Metals

Most of us remember to the day and hour a date coming up.

“A review of ISIS social media messaging during the week ending August 26 shows that militants are expressing an increased interest in the notion that they could clandestinely infiltrate the southwest border of US, for terror attack,” warns the Texas Department of Public Safety "situational awareness" bulletin, obtained by

transplanted baby's picture

wonderful returns

but has anyone forgot that those returns are in Fed notes- the thing we rail against. And so what if we make a great return. It only means that our country is in debt to the amount of our return. And the FED is going to print more money so that we can see a greater numerical return. And that manipulation is going to weaken the dollar as a reserve currency and that is going to lead to hyperinflation in the US. Really, weren't we against these shenanigans?
Nonetheless, Pining your article was a nice read.

So It Goes's picture

@ Pining

Very informative review - much appreciated.  IMO, you demonstrate very clearly that the precious metals are acting in a very bizarre beaten down way when compared to other REAL things.  I too believe the precious metals are a screaming buy right now.

My concern about your investing thesis is the underlying assumption that we will NOT have a currency collapse.   

I do not see any alternative to the US dollar collapsing in value.  In fact, the reserve status that the dollar has enjoyed is currently ending.  I don't pretend to know when the collapse will occur.  I don't pretend to know its shape or form.  I don't pretend to know whether the collapse will incremental or sudden.  So, I don't pretend to know how the collapse will play out.

But, why hold any cash now?  If you hold physical gold (silver) outside of the banking system, it is only a quick transaction to either convert the precious metal back to cash or to trade it for the asset that you want to buy.

Precious metals will never go to zero while paper dollars may rapidly go toward zero value.  If that were the case, what is the good of holding stock certificates, even if they are in your name?  The government could, in its wisdom [sarc] decide to confiscate paper (which would be much easier than confiscating physical precious metals).

I guess my post could be summarized:  what will any paper be worth if the future of paper is so unpredictable?  

Thanks again for your insights.

Dagney Taggart's picture

So Says the "War Party"

I hear that the "War Party" republicans controlled America's budget and spending from 2000-2006. Why in the hell did they NOT secure the border after the fictitious 911? Nevermind. I think I answered my own question.

So I'll pose another then: What incentive do American politicians have to STOP an attack on America anymore? After all, it's already been demonstrated Americans will give the politicians more power over them for a false sense of safety and security.

Bollocks's picture

The UK appears to be preparing to go to war

and we're seeing the implementation of a police-state in the UK.

This BBC News article is a must-read for all Turdites. Please watch the press-conference from Cameron, the second on the page (where also he mentions 9/11 and 7/7 to get the "terrorist" message across).

Here are some snippets from the article (my emphasis):


The UK's terror threat level has been raised from "substantial" to "severe" in response to conflicts in Iraq and Syria, Home Secretary Theresa May says.


...the prime minister said Islamic State (IS) extremists - who are attempting to establish a "caliphate", or Islamic state - represented a "greater and deeper threat to our security than we have known before".


David Cameron: "We need to fill the gaps in our armoury"

He said that "learning lessons from the past doesn't mean there isn't a place for our military" in combating the threat, but did not commit to any military action.


The highest level is "critical"- meaning an attack is expected imminently.


Mr Cameron said other measures to tackle the threat included:

  • Emergency legislation to make communications data available to police and security services
  • Working with the Kurds to make sure they had the arms needed to battle IS militants
  • Assisting the US by providing intelligence gathering
  • Delivering aid supplies to communities displaced by IS
  • Changes in levels of policing in the UK, especially the numbers of armed police


AC Rowley said: "From this afternoon we will begin to increase our levels of visible patrols and implement other security and protection measures."

Thorus's picture

A reflection on my choices at the ballot box

>>>I hear that the "War Party" republicans controlled America's budget and spending from 2000-2006. Why in the hell did they NOT secure the border after the fictitious 911? <<<


I have no problem with giving the Republicans an "F" grade in a lot of areas.

The problem I have with my choices, however, is that if the Republicans get an "F" grade with a score of 40 out of 100; the leftist Democrats get an "F" grade with a score of 3 out of 100.

It isn't that the Republicans are acting so wisely, they certainly are not, and have not.  But to me, they look a lot better than the (usually binary) option I have at the ballot box.

To me it looks like Obama as the Captain of the USS Titanic is down in the bottom of the ship placing explosives to blow holes in the hull so the water will drain out faster.  That is, everything he thinks he knows about how an economy and the world at large works is wrong.  Consequently, pretty much everything he does is making things worse.

In any case, have a good weekend all.

Best Regards,


Maryann's picture

Thank you

Pining, thank you....your work is amazing!!  Have a wonderful weekend. smiley

Dr Jerome's picture

Thanks Pining

Perhaps we can start the Turdville Portfolio forum that lists recommendations (and debate) on stocks and ETFs for those of us with fiat locked into 401K and 403b employer plans. We have to put that cash somewhere. and we have investment experts hanging out here that have informed, wise, suggestions and the expertise to recognize the dogs and warn people away.

I have been getting in and out of JNUG, JDST and NUGT with mixed results. But I could easily justify investing in transportation stocks or other commodity based equities. I'd much rather see a 30% return without having to trade in and out all the time. Though my 403b plan may be forced into T-bills one day, I will have something, and I'd rather have more of that something rather than less. Perhaps the next several years are the best chance I have with that employer funded account to bolster it before it is converted (for my own good of course).

Great Post

I also really appreciated your post some time ago about the undervalued mining stocks.

Green Lantern's picture

Pining Brother!

Great to see ya in the writers seat again!! And awesome follow up one year later!!

But you know what that 56% win means?   BEERS ON PINING PEEPS!!  And Bollocks probably drinking those expensive English Dark Beers.  So pony up!! 

After hidden inflation, and capital gain taxes of course. cheeky  Let me know if you need money for a cab. 

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

So it goes, GL, and Doc

1.  So it goes-  Believe me, I get what you are saying.  One of the reasons I simply haven't had any time to write for the site is that once Spring hit I was absolutely buried the combination of normal work / family responsibilities PLUS all my small farming/self sufficiency stuff (to be prepared for just such an eventuality).  Once you establish gardens, greenhouse, orchard, field crops, etc. that stuff takes serious and continual work, more than most people can fathom.  So the answer to your question is that my metals and my farm are my hedge against that worst-case scenario of total currency collapse, meaning that I still want to trade and invest with a significant portion of my savings in the event that the worst does not happen... and I sincerely hope it won't.  Honestly, if things get that bad, the only ones who will survive are the young, ex-military types, or brutal urban mercenaries.  I am none of these things, so I hope a less harsh future awaits and I want to do as well as I can if things are less than apocalyptic.

2.  GL-  I would buy you beers any day of the week and twice on Sundays, brother!  Bollocks too!  And Maryann, Doc, etc. etc. etc.  This is regardless of the fact that the above figures in no way represent my total returns on my trading account for the year (very sad face).     

3.  Doc-    A Turdville portfolio would be really interesting to put together, as would a forum of the type you describe.  We should think that one through in terms of what it would look like.  One of the things I would love to see here (if the technical stuff could be worked out) would be a forum where member's picks and trades would be updated automatically each day, and you could look at THAT leaderboard and see who is leading, then click on their picks to see what trades they have put on.  I think the interest would be quite high in something like that (even if my own failures would be therefore on public display).  

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Jim Rickards: Coming Economic Depression - The Death of Money

Safety Dan's picture

@ Pining & Dagney

Pining, great presentation. Precise and to the point with sound facts. 

Dagney, OUCH, dammit. However both parties are failing. Please see this:

Rep. Louis Gohmert: Congressmen are “Willing to have a Declaration of War against radical Islam”...

On Thursday, Representative Louie Gohmert (R-TX) blasted all those that supported war in Syria last year, saying that if Barack Obama and his supporters had gotten their way the Islamic jihadists in ISIS would be in control of Syria today, just like Al-Qaeda did in Libya.

The truth is, he is right and that is one of many reasons we gave in being opposed to any US involvement in Syria. However, there were many who called for the administration to go after the Assad administration. They signed a letter on August 27, 2013, that demanded those actions from Obama.

Among the signatories were Karl Rove, Bill Kristol, Clifford May, Paul Bremer, Mark Duobwitz, Douglas Feith, Dan Senor, Tim Pawlenty, Joe Lieberman, along with many others.

Gohmert appeared on Fox News and told Neil Cavuto that he agrees with Obama’s claim that he has absolutely no strategy to deal with ISIS. This is because he doesn’t and he doesn’t care to deal with them.

“He has never had a good strategy,” Gohmert said.

“I don’t want people to lose sight of the fact that when we are talking about ISIS….ISIL….the rebels in Syria, the rebels in Iraq… when people say ‘he should have bombed,’ he was going to bomb Assad a year ago,” he added. “If he had done what he said he was going to do, then ISIS would have taken over all of Syria.”

Gohmert went on to make the same point I made at the beginning of the article that the same thing that occurred in Libya would have been the result in Syria.

The Texas congressman said that Obama saw ISIS previously as an “Arab Spring,” but now believes he has changed his mind and is now willing to side with the Assad regime and, in Gohmert’s words, “bomb the bad guys.”

Is it me or does anyone else recall Orwell‘s 1984 regarding enemies. In 1984, the people were told Oceania was their allies and Eurasia were their enemies and then they were told Eurasia were their friends and Oceania were their enemies. Does this sound remotely familiar to what is taking place in Syria?

I disagree with calling ISIS “radical Islam” simply because these people are merely following the teachings of Muhammad. They are not “radical,” but simply devout Islamists. However, I agree with his conclusion that Obama chose to continue supporting these jihadists and he did so at tax payer expense.

Gohmert said there were many members of Congress that would support the bombing of ISIS, himself included. Then he uttered the words that even President George W. Bush wouldn’t proclaim.

“I think many of us would be willing to have a declaration of war against radical Islam, including Al-Qeda, ISIS, ISIL,… you know, all these splinter groups, including those in Libya,” he said.

One wonders if Senator Dianne Feinstein has changed her position to reflect that of her constituents. Last year, the socialist gun grabber said that she knew better than her constituents, who opposed action in Syria. One would think she does as she chaired the Senate Intelligence Committee, but sadly, like most things Feinstein engages in, she was wrong… dead wrong. I’m guessing she has changed her tune now too.

Again, apart from the term “radical,” I agree with Gohmert, but what about the Islam on our own shores? What about the threat here in our own backyard? We have the Council on American-Islamic Relations, the Islamic Society of North America and various other Muslim Brotherhood front groups operating within our borders, attending meetings with Barack Obama in the White House and conducting policy strategies on foreign and domestic policy here. Are you willing to make the hard call and go to war against Islam in America? That’s what I want to know.

It’s good to call the enemy out and to make war with the enemy, but if we’re going to go after these jihadists thousands of miles away from us, why are we not dealing with what is in the homeland and putting a stop to it here?

As I’ve said before, my hope is that Christians would be bold and proclaim the gospel and that God would save many from among them, but I also realize that we are dealing with an ideology and political totalitarianism that is not subject to reason, and if it flexes its muscles, which it is doing here in America, it must be stopped…. It must be eliminated for the sake of the lives of millions of Americans.

So I agree, we must have a declaration of war, as the Constitution demands, in order to deal with Islam, but it must be that… a war against Islam.

Art Lomax's picture

Thanks Pining..

Thanks Pining.. yes

Safety Dan's picture

@ DeaconBen

While this is an important post, one of the most informative, it was posted in April of this year. See transcript here below the posted video:

SS121's picture

the old 'when to be where' game

there are basically 3 choices...

  • The System (stocks, futures, options, "Markets")
  • Cash
  • Silver and Gold

A lot of folks (like Dr. J) are still forced to be at least partially in the system based on the retirement accounts tied to their jobs. 

Cash isn't going to be near the winner or loser in % moves, as compared to the system , and it's much more nimble.  But it could be a loser if held too long in the form of dry powder for stacking.

Silver and Gold are currently projected in the most undesirable light by the system's charts, but will no doubt be the clear winner when the system dies it's natural death.

Turd's excellent article ZIRP Morphs to NIRP lays out that in the last 6 years, (as the system has continued to run it's stock market charts up up and up) interest rates for those holding cash has went down down down to the point where now it costs to hold cash.

stocks UP + interest rates DOWN = the system would like for people to move from cash to it's paper markets.

Again, some have no choice but to be in system's paper markets, and whether there by choice or not, this excellent article by P4 makes the tangible/hard-asset area look like the neighborhood to buy in.  (great to see P4 posting again btw)

Just some thoughts on what are really the only 3 choices of

  • System (markets)
  • Cash or
  • Metal (Silver, Gold, other hard assets)

When to be where is obviously a personal decision based to some degree on how long the system looks to be able to hold together.  I don't give it much time myself, but for those who 'have to' or 'choose to' play the paper markets, i hope they stick 'em for every penny and can get out before it folds!! 

Sverre Liliequist narrowly escaped an avalanche in Switzerland


Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Good to see you, Art!

Thank you very much, sir!  I was thinking of you a few weeks ago when I at first made some nice coin with some soybean puts, then lost it all and then some when I didn't sell around 9.80 after the crop report.  Actually I was thinking that you would have known better than to have been short there so close to cost of production, and I was an idiot.  I hope I'm learning some things, but the tuition hurts!

Dan and SS- thank you both as well!  

Safety Dan's picture

(No subject)


murphy's picture


Bravo, once again. The only thing better than reading a Pining post is having lunch and a beer with him.

Nick Elway's picture

Thanks Pining

I appreciate your kind words and your great posts.   I hope Turdites can benefit from my GOTS experience.

Safety Dan's picture

Massive 60% Stock Market

Massive 60% Stock Market Correction Coming: “Period Of Extreme Turmoil”

Mac Slavo August 28th, 2014

The confidence game is almost up warns Prudent Bear Fund President David Tice. And when the economic recovery and stock market build-up is finally revealed for the conjecture that it really is we’ll have a sell-off of unprecedented proportions.

Markets could soon face a fall of up to 60 percent, two experts told CNBC on Wednesday.

A jolt to international confidence in central banks will lead to a 30 to 60 percent market decline, David Tice, president of Tice Capital and founder of the Prudent Bear Fund, told CNBC’s “Power Lunch.” When this happens, he said, markets will face a “period of extreme turmoil.”

This crash will be precipitated, he said, by a disillusionment with the Federal Reserve’s “confidence game,” which will then see inflation rise, and the Fed scramble to raise rates. At that point, Tice added, “the Fed starts to lose control.” (CNBC)

Safety Dan's picture

@ Turd; You Made It Big Time, See GATA Post

Congrats to you Turd..

Natural law and economic law are with gold, but laws no longer apply

Submitted by cpowell on Thu, 2014-08-28 15:42. Section: Daily Dispatches

11:57a ET Thursday, August 28, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Examining the astounding and continuing downward trend of interest rates that has brought some rates into negative territory, the TF Metals Report's Turd Ferguson postulates today that gold and silver prices won't be going any lower, regardless of the charting done by technical analysts. Ferguson's commentary is headlined "ZIRP Morphs to NIRP" and it's posted at the TF Metals Report here:

Of course Ferguson is right about what ordinarily has been the inverse relationship of gold prices and real interest rates. That relationship was described by the 1988 academic study by Harvard University economics professor Lawrence Summers and University of Michigan economics professor Robert Barsky, "Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard":

(Yes, Summers went on to run the U.S. Treasury Department, where his knowledge of gold pricing seems to have come in handy.)

But then Western central bank policy long has been to defeat ordinary market forces -- indeed, in recent years Western central bank policy has been to prevent any markets from happening at all:

This policy is what even some central bankers themselves now call "financial repression":

So while negative real interest rates may tend to support gold prices and asset prices generally, they also may be accompanied by still more "financial repression," particularly against the monetary metals, currencies that compete with and threaten government currencies and bonds.

Central bank gold sales and leasing, the underpinnings of the world's fractional-reserve gold banking system, whereby huge amounts of imaginary "paper" gold are created to nullify gold's scarcity and suppress its price, were always plainly mechanisms of "financial repression" to defend currencies and government bond prices. So amid the descent into negative real interest rates, what is to prevent central banks from underwriting still more "paper" gold for price suppression?

Such a policy probably could be defeated only by 1) mass exposure, which would require the mainstream financial news media to stop averting its gaze and to resolve to hold government to account; 2) a major sovereign foreign-exchange surplus holder's decision to switch its surplus heavily and abruptly into gold to strike a political blow; or 3) by the simple exhaustion of the gold reserves of the nations participating in gold price suppression, the circumstances that collapsed the last acknowledged mechanism of price suppression, the London Gold Pool, in March 1968:

The point here is that natural, economic, and even societal laws are disintegrating throughout the world under the pressure of what is essentially totalitarianism, the totalitarianism of central banking, which thrives only because, like the new clothes of the emperor in the fairy tale, it cannot be acknowledged for what it is -- cannot even be examined and questioned.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Green Lantern's picture

A little unfortunate gold

A little unfortunate gold news for this holiday weekend.   These guys dig gold for a big company for free.  Sad stuff


11 of 24 trapped gold miners rescued in Nicaragua

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Miners wait for their turn to help in the rescue operations at El Comal gold and silver mine after a landslide trapped at least 24 miners inside, in Bonanza, Nicaragua, Friday, Aug. 29, 2014. Rescuers on Friday located 20 of at least 24 gold miners trapped by a landslide in northern Nicaragua, but were not immediately able to bring them to safety. (AP Photo/Esteban Felix)

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