Ready For A Hot Weekend

Is the war in Ukraine about to get significantly hotter? All signs point to an imminent increase in hostilities and direct Russian involvement. I guess we'll just sit back and watch as there's not much else we can do.

Earlier today, the Russian "humanitarian convoy" crossed the border into Ukraine and there are already pictures of white trucks on the ground in Lugansk.

The first traffic jam in 'war' #Lugansk. And the Russian humanitarian aid is now here! #aidconvoy #Ukrainecrisis

— GrahamWPhillips (@GrahamWP_UK) August 22, 2014

The Ukraine Ministry of Foreign Affairs was quick to respond, calling this "an illegal crossing" and a "flagrant violation of the principles of international law":

Recall now what Professor Cohen told us in his segment with John Batchelor 10 days ago...that the convoy had been sent off from Moscow with great fanfare. The Russian government even trotted out a few Orthodox bishops to sprinkle holy water on the trucks in the hopes of blessing them with safe passage. There can be no doubt that this send-off event was staged and orchestrated in order to bring the Russian population completely in line with the mission.

Perhaps this will all work out fine. Perhaps the terrorized citizens of Lugansk and Donetsk will get some food, water and medicine and then the Russian convoy will withdraw. Perhaps Merkel will meet with Poroshenko tomorrow in Kiev and they'll have a wonderful time. Perhaps Poroshenko and Putin will then meet in Minsk next Tuesday and be seen laughing it up, fist-bumping and hugging. Let's hope so.

Perhaps, instead, this has all been designed as a false flag from the get go. Perhaps the convoy, full of Russian goods and driven by Russian citizens (soldiers?), will come under attack at some point this weekend. Perhaps the Ukraine militia, which we already know are only loosely controlled by Kiev, will read the official statement from the Ukraine Foreign Ministry and decide to take matters into their own hands. After all, they're supposedly defending Mother Ukraine, right? Do you not think they consider their mandate an obligation to defend Ukraine from " illegal and aggressive acts of the Russian Federation"?

The full text of the Ukraine statement is below. I've added bold and italic emphasis to the sections that seem the most relevant. Please pay extra close attention to the headlines and your twitter feed today and this weekend. As you know, I've been following these events very closely since February and everything tells me that the situation is about to make a dramatic escalation. For once I hope...and pray...that I'm wrong.


Statement of the MFA of Ukraine in connection with illegal crossing of the state border of Ukraine by the Russian convoy

Today, 13:21
On August, 22 Russia began smuggling humanitarian aid to Ukraine, ignoring established international rules, procedures and agreements, without the consent and escort of the International Committee of the Red Cross.
Although the border and customs services of Ukraine have already started clearance of the Russian convoy, in the morning Ukrainian officials were blocked by the Russian forces and detached from the inspection of the rest of the trucks in the column, despite previous agreements and the fact that they had been invited to the territory of Russia. We are concerned about the safety of our employees. Moreover, deep concern is raised because so far neither Ukrainian side nor the ICRC are aware of the content of the cargo.
The fact that Russian trucks entered the territory of Ukraine without proper border and customs procedures and that the cargo was not donated to the representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross indicates deliberate and aggressive nature of Russia’s actions.
As we have previously emphasized the Russian side is fully responsible for the safety of the cargo. It is important to note that the Ukraine has already taken all necessary measures to ensure the security of the cargo.
In order to prevent any provocations we have issued all necessary instructions for the safe passing of the convoy. Despite all attempts by the Ukrainian side the contact between the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the one of Russia, has not been established, which is critical to ensure security along the route. We point out that terrorists carry out mortar attacks along the possible route of the cargo.
We also are not aware of the content of the agreements of the Russian side with Luhansk insurgents and we do not exclude the possibility of any planned provocation.
We consider this act to be another flagrant violation of the fundamental principles of international law, including inviolability of borders, non-interference in the internal affairs of another state and bona fide fulfillment of international obligations by the Russian Federation.
We call on all international partners to join the strong condemnation of illegal and aggressive acts of the Russian Federation.


TheGuyFromSweden's picture


My first first!

Turd Ferguson's picture

Another convoy picture

Blankone's picture

Short memory

Its amazing how quickly the 2 Malaysian airlines have fallen not only out of the sky but out of the news also.  Fergusen, Mo seems to be fading somewhat also.  The bad guys need another false flag to keep the masses occupied and this may be it...

Meanwhile the pm sale goes on and I think Ill add more today...

erewenguy's picture

SLV charts just posted in last open thread

These are the channels I am particularly interested in (ignore the maroon horizontal lines at the bottom of the chart, those are personal reference points)

On the SLV weekly chart, notice the yellow trend resistance touching @ 8-26-11 and 11-30-12. From my chart, this is the valid channel resistance based on the confirmation of two other parallel trendlines on the chart. We have not really gotten close breaking this resistance yet, although we almost touched it on 7-11-14.

Zeroing in a little closer on the daily chart, you can see that the 50 day MA crossed above the 200 dMA on 8-7-14. This is the first time this occurred since the great massacre of 2011. A pushback in price was expected to keep the price under control.  The 100 dMA is starting to converge with the 200 dMA, and the yellow channel trend resistance line is now lower in value than prices in much of July.  Any short squeeze will propel price up through the trend resistance line and the 100 dMA above the 200 dMA.

This seems to be a pretty complex inverse head and shoulders bottoming pattern but based on these charts a day of reckoning is getting close.

Turd Ferguson's picture

And now there's these

Turd Ferguson's picture

I think I'll add more today...


Good idea.

Response to: Short memory
Turd Ferguson's picture

And this

Turd Ferguson's picture

Again, a reminder


I retweet everything of significance that I see. 

If you want to stay up-to-the-minute on everything, you simply MUST be on twitter. If you don't have time to do the work of compiling list of folks to follow, just follow me and look at my list.


Turd Ferguson's picture

It seems that gold might have


It seems that gold might have finally awakened to the impending hostilities...

Urban Roman's picture

Russian Foreign Ministry statement on aid convoy

"The endless delays hampering the initial deliveries of the Russian humanitarian relief aid to southeastern Ukraine have become intolerable.


"We hereby state once again: All the required security guarantees regarding the passage of the humanitarian convoy have been provided. The ICRC has officially recognised these guarantees. The delivery routes are known, and they have been checked by an ICRC mission. The documents have been drawn up. The shipments have long been ready for inspection by Ukrainian border guards and customs officers who have been waiting at the Donetsk checkpoint in the Rostov Region for a week now. The capitals that display heightened concern for the situation in southeastern Ukraine are well aware of this. The endless artificial demands and pretexts have become unconscionable.

"It is no longer possible to tolerate this lawlessness, outright lies and inability to reach agreements. All pretexts for delaying the delivery of aid to people in the humanitarian disaster zone have been depleted. The Russian side has decided to act. Our humanitarian relief convoy is setting out towards Lugansk. Naturally, we are ready to allow ICRC officials to escort the convoy and to take part in distributing aid. We hope that representatives of the Russian Red Cross Society will also be able to take part in this mission.

"We are warning against any attempts to thwart this purely humanitarian mission which took a long time to prepare in conditions of complete transparency and cooperation with the Ukrainian side and the ICRC. Those who are ready to continue sacrificing human lives to their own ambitions and geopolitical designs and who are rudely trampling on the norms and principles of international humanitarian law will assume complete responsibility for the possible consequences of provocations against the humanitarian relief convoy. (emphasis added by the Saker)

"We are once again calling on the Ukrainian leadership, as well as the United States and the European Union, which are exerting their influence on Kiev, to promptly launch negotiations in southeastern Ukraine and start complying with the accords formalised in the 17 April 2014 Geneva Statement by Russia, Ukraine, the United States and the EU on stopping the use of force, mitigating the humanitarian situation and immediately launching nationwide dialogue that would involve all Ukrainian regions."

The rest is here:

Turd Ferguson's picture

And this too


Quoted on ZH. I'm still looking for source:

As Former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor warns "markets should be concerned, this is an actual invasion... and likely means war."

StevenBHorse's picture

They can claim

That they will allow safe passage until the cows come home.  There are roughly 8 private oligarch backed Neo-Nazi militia units fighting against the NovoRussians.  Anyone of those groups could attack that convoy.  All parties will deny responsibility, but the fact will remain that Russians died in Ukraine.

There will be no fist bumping from Putin.  You don't get to bump his fist.  His fist bumps you.


StevenBHorse's picture


That was a video on CNBC about 15 minutes ago.  The guy is a total Russophobe douchebag.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Thanks, Steven


As soon as they put it up, I'll embed it.

Response to: Turd
agNau's picture

False claims.....

abound in this arena.

Turd Ferguson's picture

Because you can never have "enough"


FWIW, I just did this:

Items Ordered

Product Name SKU Price Qty Subtotal
Subtotal $1,324.80
Shipping & Handling $11.95
Grand Total $1,336.75

1 oz US American Gold Eagle Coin | Dates Our Choice

BBUG-00001 $1,324.80 Ordered:1 $1,324.80
goldcom's picture

We all so appreciate their analysis - but tight range is right

Analysts are weighing up the many factors that have been causing the commodity gold to trade in a tight range in recent months.


Fed hike or 'Putin put'? Factors affecting gold


By Matt Clinch1 hour ago


Fed hike or 'Putin put'? Factors affecting gold


View photo

Chris Ratcliffe | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The price of spot gold (Exchange:XAU=) remained just above a two-month low on Friday morning, as analysts weighed up the many factors that have been causing the commodity to trade in a tight range in recent months.

Related Stories

Gold rose 0.12 percent on Friday to trade at $1,278.60, amid heightening tensions between Ukraine and Russia, but this could prove to be a brief respite with gold watchers predicting a slight fall in the longer term. Before Friday, the metal had been on a five-day losing streak.

"We think in the next few months we'll get some more downward pressure on gold," Matthew Turner, a precious metals analyst at Macquarie Securities told CNBC Friday. 

Read More Moscow defies Kiev,aid convoy passes Ukraine border

John Meyer, a mining analyst at brokerage SP Angel, agreed and believes that the weakness will persist for gold. He expects the commodity to be range-bound for the rest of 2014. "Yes gold is heading south for now," he told CNBC Friday.

In the 10 years up until last December 2012, gold had surged around 400 percent, with the help of low interest rates, extra Federal Reserve liquidity and concerns over the global economy. In 2013 it lost 30 percent of its value with the Fed beginning to dial back its $85 billion-a-month stimulus program. This year, meanwhile, the precious metal has added 6 percent to its price with a range of factors influencing both speculators and physical gold buyers.

Rate hike

Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation and traditionally has had an inverse relationship to interest rates, with demand for the precious metal increasing when rates are low. With the Fed delivering a more hawkish tone in the minutes from its latest policy meeting the price has softened.

Turner said that speculators follow Fed policy closely and were willing to buy gold as the price rose but accentuated the fall when the Fed's policy suddenly changed in 2013.

Read More Rate hikes not bad for stocks: Portfolio manager

"The investment money has come out of the market," he told CNBC. "What drives speculation is U.S. monetary policy still and last year we had a shock...this year we haven't had a shock"


Continued concerns that violence in Ukraine could escalate rapidly has provided some support for the price which is seen as a "safe-haven" trade. Pro-Russian separatists are currently locked in fierce battles against Ukrainian forces and Turner has dubbed this a "Putin put" which he believes provides a floor for gold prices at $1,200. A put option is a contract which offers the right, but not the obligation to sell an asset at a pre-agreed level.

"We've raised our floor price on the grounds of these geopolitical events such as Ukraine and Iraq, we think it's put a 'put' under the market."

Read More Why is the gold price immune to global strife? 

Foreign buying

Also on the plus side for the precious metal, Turner believes than when the price falls slightly it spurs buyers in China and India who are inclined to buy physical gold items rather than gold derivatives or paper-based assets traded on exchanges. 

However, this tailwind seems to have dissipated this year. In its latest quarterly report The World Gold Council noted that total global gold demand in the second quarter had fallen 16 percent from the same period last year, with demand in top buyers China and India falling about 50 percent and 40 percent respectively.

Central banks

If physical demand is wavering then the reins may have been picked up by central banks who remain net buyers of the commodity in 2014. Data from the International Monetary Fund 's financial statistics report continue to show that the Russian central bank has been stocking up on gold in an effort to diversify its reserves.

Read More When is a safe-haven asset not a safe-haven play? 

"Would you want to put your funds into U.S. dollars (Exchange:.DXY)?" SP Angel's Meyer told CNBC.

"There's been lots of central bank buying. So that's positive. (Russia is) definitely buying gold, they bought 55 tons so far in the first half (of 2014) and I'm sure they'll be buying more of it, the Chinese too," he added.

Mr. Fix's picture

I'm not buying very much of this:

All the talk of “eminent war”, seems to be coming from NATO, our State Department, and the basic goon squad on their side, with no real speaking of it from the other side.

I am more than a little skeptical of all of the Russian troops on the border reports, they've been saying that for well over a month now.

The convoy of humanitarian aid trucks was supposed to be the big invasion, and yet there's nothing there but food.

It's the Western banking cartel whose in desperate need of a war as a diversion for their impending collapse,

Russia knows that the West will collapse under its own dead weight if it just sits back and watches.

In other words, they have absolutely no reason to initiate hostilities whatsoever.

Our side however is in desperate need of a war somewhere, anywhere, and is actively pursuing multiple options.

The only way they're going to get anyone to fight back, is if we in fact are on both sides of the battle,

that's where ISIS comes in.

The only way the United States can kick off World War III, is if it arms, trains, finances both sides.

This is exactly what it will do.

buzlightening's picture

Chaos is distinctly ramping up as we head to

order; EEE's new world order.  Military stazi neoCON police state is in full view in Ferguson.  You know the EEE is preparing big time to thump those who participate in civil disobedience.  A civil disobedience which is being stirred up by the EEE provocateurs.  As the cowardly bankstering cartel can not exist in a free market the win is always rigged in favor of the financial gestapo.  Even when the fines are huge to appear a loss, as with bacula's 16 billion fine, it's miniscule compared to overall raping, pillaging, and plundering of we the peoples wealth.  Fines globally of banksters still has not exceeded 1 thin penny over global profiteering; racketeering.  Now the thugs want an advantage in outright conflict with banning body amour among we the people.  Civil disobedience is a suckers game for those who go out in rioting protest to battle the EEE on these rat bastards chosen place.  Don't be suckered in turdites and hit the streets unless it's to get out of harms way.  A reduction in populaces within major US cities is only advantage to the EEE; gestapo tactics and all.  Civilians get one free item; a body bag.  You may call it what you will but those who are not suckered to raise the sword against their neighbors, stasi neoCONs who would capo people as chattle to furnaces  at one bowl of food 3 times a day, as in nazi germany, the more civilized, law abiding people unite; gather in strength to defend the republic and our constitution.  The escalating chaos in our country is all one massive EEE planned freak show, to reach a final goal of complete submission and sheeple round up for sheering; silencing of the lambs in brutal slaughter.  Intelligence cleaves to intelligence as birds of a feather flock together in peace.  Where the carcass is or the body of the remaining shreds of our constitution, there will the eagles be gathered.  Let the turkeys serve themselves up in rioting to their unfortunate demise.  Eagles will mount up their wings, renew their strength in the Lord, as our founding Fathers; 2 eagles feeding sending 10,000 fleeing chickens to KFC buckets.  I do not doubt as it is written.  The Lord will full fill every promise to His patriots who fight for constitutional freedom; the truth setting one free and the leaven of some few, giving rise to the whole of liberty for all.   Liberty will fill the whole earth.  Nothing is too hard for the Lord as His children listen and obey. 

Turd Ferguson's picture

Dec gold keeps inching UP


Back above $1280 at $1281.60 and nearly $7 off of the day's lows.

nadgeskaul's picture

Nothing will get hot

This is all part of the BS.  This crap is spread across media just to get panic, safe-haven buying into treasuries after a hawkish Fed.  10 years were reeling...then momentum stalled and drove upwards because of this nonsense.

They get to have their cake and eat it complete control of the market.

Urban Roman's picture

My forecast:

Au and Ag will have a small bump from this news, and then be slammed back to the trend line by next Tuesday.

Because Tuesday.

Turd Ferguson's picture

I understand and you're likely correct


However, when taking all of the events of the past two weeks in context, chances are very high that something will happen to at least a part of the convoy this weekend. What happens from there is anyone's guess.

Consider this, too. Just yesterday we saw this:

Russia had "no plans for military invasion". How convenient, then, that they send in the convoy the very next day...

Response to: My forecast:
Turd Ferguson's picture

And this


NYTimes reports that Russia has moved artillery units into Ukraine and is firing on militia positions:

The Russian move represents a significant escalation of the Kremlin’s involvement in the fighting there and comes as a convoy of Russian trucks with humanitarian provisions has crossed into Ukrainian territory without Kiev’s permission.

Since mid-August NATO has received multiple reports of the direct involvement of Russian forces, “including Russian airborne, air defense and special operations forces in Eastern Ukraine,” said Oana Lungescu, a spokeswoman for NATO.

Continue reading the main story

“Russian artillery support — both cross-border and from within Ukraine — is being employed against the Ukrainian armed forces,” she added.

CPE's picture

China gold exchange gains traction as yuan reforms stir interes

China gold exchange gains traction as yuan reforms stir interest

By A. Ananthalakshmi

SINGAPORE Fri Aug 22, 2014 3:20pm IST

New five-tael 24K gold bars, issued by the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society, Hong Kong's major gold and silver exchange, are introduced during the first trading day after the Chinese New Year holidays in Hong Kong February 14, 2013.  REUTERS/Bobby Yip/Files

New five-tael 24K gold bars, issued by the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society, Hong Kong's major gold and silver exchange, are introduced during the first trading day after the Chinese New Year holidays in Hong Kong February 14, 2013.

Credit: Reuters/Bobby Yip/Files

(Reuters) - China's planned global gold exchange has signed up more members than targeted, as foreign banks and trading houses seek direct access to the world's top physical gold consumer and to test out reforms allowing them to trade commodities in the yuan currency.

The strong response from foreign players will boost efforts by China - also the world's biggest producer of gold - to gain pricing power over the metal and to challenge the dominance of London and New York in trading.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange targeted 30 companies for the first round of membership but has signed up 40, including many foreign banks, with just over a month to go before the launch, a senior source with direct knowledge of the matter said.

The exchange's progress is being closely tracked by the global trading community as gold is one of the first commodities that China is opening up to foreign players by allowing them to participate directly in physical trade and to use offshore yuan.

The bourse is set to begin operations on Sept. 29 in the Shanghai free-trade zone, with three yuan-denominated physical gold contracts, of 100 grams, 1 kg and the bigger London gold delivery bar weighing 12.5 kg, according to the source who spoke on condition of anonymity.

"It is too important a market to stay away," said Bernhard Schnellmann, director of Swiss-based Argor-Heraeus, one of the world's biggest gold refineries, which is considering joining.

"I think the SGE will be successful with this new exchange as they have a big home market and there should be enough liquidity."

The new free-trade zone is also seen as a testing ground for currency reforms, as Beijing takes cautious steps towards allowing full convertibility of China's currency.


Allowing foreign players to trade yuan-denominated bullion contracts - without the need to exchange into U.S. dollars - would give the Chinese currency more international exposure, while also drawing in demand for gold in offshore yuan. Trading offshore yuan is currently restricted to certain international financial centres such as Hong Kong, Singapore and London.

"Having a gold contract delivered in the free trade zone in local currency is interesting in terms of bringing together the onshore and offshore players," said a trader with a bullion bank that is considering being part of the exchange.

The senior source with direct knowledge of the exchange declined to name the companies that had signed up, but market sources said HSBC, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, Standard Bank, Standard Chartered, Bank of Nova Scotia and J.P. Morgan were interested in participating.

Refiners Argor-Heraeus and the Perth Mint were also considering membership, company officials said.

It wasn't immediately clear if all the firms were joining as the first set of trading members or would sign up later.

Metalor had told Reuters in June that it would join as a founding member.

"We're very keen to explore cooperation in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone gold market and see the development of a new exchange as being a great opportunity to entice foreign investment to China's physical gold market," ANZ said in an emailed statement.

The other companies declined to comment.


The senior source with direct knowledge of the exchange said the 40 members that had signed up, including international banks, refiners and trading houses.

"The response has been better than our expectations," said the source. "After the opening of the exchange, we will increase the number of participants."

A spokesman for the SGE said it had targeted 30 members but declined to say how many had signed up.

China - the world's biggest buyer of raw materials from copper to coal - is pushing hard to establish pricing benchmarks for a number of commodities.

China and other Asian gold trading centres such as Singapore are seeking control over pricing of the precious metal as they seek alternatives to the so-called London fix, the global benchmark, which is being investigated by regulators on suspicion that it may have been manipulated.

The active presence of foreign players in the Chinese gold bourse is seen as an important positive step, though liquidity and full convertibility of the yuan would ultimately determine whether Chinese gold prices would be widely accepted.

(Editing by Ed Davies)

agNau's picture

And that....

is my false claims comment mrf.

War is the west's, and only the west's desire. It is to maintain and increase control. Without war and what it brings and takes from the world, our absolute free fall will end very soon and very abruptly...the next phase of the crash is outside the door now...with or without the war...the war will be the excuse for the collapse. The global suffering is about to enter a new realm. The shift we are now upon will be quite shocking. Suicide rates globally will skyrocket from the shock felt. Bombs are about to fall in Syria...the west will once again seize the opportunity contrived by them in the new ISIS boogeyman.....which will lead an (mostly) ignorant nation to rally against another terrorist lie. Wars for energy....Wars for control....Wars for perceptions.
The axis of evil.

Putin will sit in silence. until he no longer can.

*Remember, congress has allowed propaganda's use. Lies.

Turd Ferguson's picture

And how about this??


US puppet "Yats" claims that Russia has stolen 300kg of Ukrainian gold:

Here's the Google translation:

Russia stole in the "Savings" temporarily annexed Crimea Ukrainian 300kg of gold.

This at a briefing in Kiev Prime Minister of Ukraine Yatsenyuk correspondent InfoResist.

"This is our gold, and they came in and just like that the central bank of the Crimea it was stolen," - said Yatsenyuk.

We hired the world's leading companies, to our private companies judged Rossiiyu for each case of theft the Ukrainian property ", - informs the Prime Minister.

AIJ's picture

Why does Gold or Silver have to have "an event" to rise?

....printing TRILLIONS of Dollars don't matter?? 

Like Kirby said.  Gold and Silver will be controlled until it can't . 

I don't like "events" because when the event is over or forgotten the move is reversed.

CPE's picture

I'm sure Putin

will give the 300 kilos of shiny back as soon as they pay Gazprom...

wouldyoubelieve...'s picture

Crimean gold???

Yats needs to look closer, the "claims" for the gold are right there in the file cabinet, just like all other cabal controlled national gold holdings

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