"Laundry Day" and Some Gold and Dow Rhythms

Did you know the Market "Laundry" is a hundred years old! We should not be surprised that Wall St failed to bring attention to this by having a party! The newbies and regulators are not supposed to know about it ..... nudge nudge, wink wink!

I'm still tweaking the Audio visual format for these blog contributions to improve them. Suggestions by PM are most welcome.

Have a great weekend everybody!

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.


treefrog's picture


1st!  ready for good news!

silver66's picture


Go Rory !


Spartacus Rex's picture

No Tickey, No Laundry!


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silver66's picture

Purge ??!!

DayStar's picture

Harvey's Up! (TFMR)

Harvey's Up! http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/421958#comment-421958

  • Mark O'Byrne: Gold prices have been in lockdown in a range bound month. The spread between July's high and low was just $57.54. This is the narrowest in seven years - the June 2007 range was $54.70. This was right before the global financial crisis. In 2007, gold began to move up aggressively in September (see chart above). On September 1, it was trading at $672/oz. By early March 2008, it was over $1,000/oz - for a gain of nearly 50% of just 7 months. Were gold to replicate the gains seen in that period in the coming months, gold would trade over $1,900 and close to new record nominal highs by the 2nd quarter of 2015. The real record high, adjusted for inflation, is of course $2,400/oz. We continue to believe it will be reached before 2020.
  • Harvey: Today gold rose as we have finished with both Comex options expiry and OTC options expiry. Gold rose its mandatory 1% and then capped by our banker friends. At the Comex, the amount of gold standing still remains very high at 25.57 tonnes. Also the September month shows a huge 7376 contracts standing (737600 oz or 22.94 tonnes). In silver, the open interest again continues to rise and tonight it rests at 160,497 contracts. We have quite a few important stories to send your way tonight: First: the ISDA reported that the Argentinean default is a credit event and now we will witness the auction to see how much loss our major bankers will encompass. Second: BES bank in Portugal collapsed in price by 40% down to 12 cents today. Then they suspended trading with an announcement scheduled tonight. They will probably default on their bonds which will trigger a bail in. Say tuned. Third: in the USA the jobs report showed gains at 209,000 workers much less than expected. European bourses collapsed on fears of a systemic problem in Portugal. The Dow and NASDAQ after being down badly in the morning, fared somewhat better, with the Dow down only 69 points. 
  • Mark O'Byrne on the seasonality of gold: Gold’s traditional period of strength is from early August into the autumn and early winter. Thus, early August is generally a good time to buy after the seasonal dip. Late summer, autumn and early New Year are the seasonally strong periods for the gold market due to robust physical demand internationally. This is the case especially in Asia for weddings and festivals and into year end and for Chinese New Year when voracious China stocks up on gold. Gold’s weakest months since 1975 have been June and July. Buying gold in early August has been a good trade for most of the last 34 years and especially in the last nine years, averaging a gain of nearly 13% in just six months after the summer low. 
  • Matthew Daneman (Rochester, NY Democrat & Chronicle): Eastman Kodak Co. has joined a long line of companies accusing a collection of financial and commodities giants of colluding to artificially pump up the price of aluminum. Kodak filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court for the Western District of New York, complaining that such parties as Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., and the London Metal Exchange Ltd. were part of a conspiracy to violate the federal Sherman Antitrust Act and New York's Donnelly Law. The defendants are facing dozens of similar such suits that were filed around the country before being consolidated in December 2013 to the Southern District of New York and Judge Katherine B. Forrest.
  • lasdair Macleod (GoldMoney): Whichever way we look at Fiat Money Quantity (FMQ), it continues to expand at a frightening pace irrespective of the GDP outturn and the flaws in the way it's reported. Furthermore, a look at the most recent Fed balance sheet confirms the fiat money expansion, showing that the 1st August fiat money figure will be considerably higher than previous months, unless there is an offsetting contraction of bank credit. There is little sign of any such contraction. We can conclude from short-term market interest rates that the US economy is going nowhere fast, contrary to this week's GDP estimate, and that demand for credit continues to come from essentially financial activities. But given that GDP estimates turn out to be far too optimistic, what if the US economy stalls or even slumps? Won't that lead to a reversal of FMQ's growth trend? This is essentially the argument of the deflationists. In a slump they expect a dash from credit into cash as asset prices tumble. The counterpart of credit is deposits, the major components of FMQ. And without Fed intervention FMQ would rapidly contract. But in the event of a slump the Fed cannot be expected to stand idly by without taking extraordinary measures.
  • Zero Hedge: Quietly, and without the drama associated with The Fed and ECB, China unveiled what looks like QE recently (as we discussed in detail here). Whether this is a stealth creation of a 'fannie-mae' structure to support housing or merely another channel for the PBOC to shovel out hole-filling liquidity is unclear. However, one thing is very clear,demand for CNY is surging (even as the PBOC weakens its fixing) and the Shanghai Composite is surging as hot money chases free money once again. The Yuan has rallied for 8 days straight as PBOC weakened its Fix. The Chinese stock market has quietly surged to its highest since December - outperforming the Dow now year-to-date.
  • Tyler Durden: China's official manufacturing PMI beat expectations by the most since Nov 2013 and jumped to its highest since April 2012 - sure it did after all the forget-the-reforms liquidity, QE-lite, and local government spending dragged forward. Perhaps worryingly the steel industry saw domestic and export new orders crater (from 55.7 to 48.2 in July). The employment sub-index fell once again (now in contraction since May 2012) as large enterprises dominated the upbeat report (medium and small clinging to 50.1 PMIs). Japan's PMI dropped for the first time in 3 months from 50.8 to 50.5 with output contracting and payrolls only marginally positive (slowest since August 2013). Manufacturers in Japan reported a fall in output from a previous month of growth during July. That said, the rate of contraction was only fractional. According to panellists, the increase in the sales tax was still having a detrimental effect on production levels.
  •   Zero Hedge: Looks like it will be a busty weekend for European leaders calling the crisis over. Knife-catching 'value' investors have been torn asunder as Banco Espirito Santo's stock crashed another 40% today to 12c and has now been suspended by Portugal's securities regulator. Banco Espirito Santo shares are suspended pending information, CMVM says With Goldman bailing and the sovereign suggesting it is not willing to bailout, it appears - based on Sub debt's collapse - that a bail-in burden-sharing solution is coming.
  • Alisa Odenheimer and David Wainer (Bloomberg): A three-day truce between Israel’s army and Hamas unraveled within hours today as a surge in fighting claimed the lives of Palestinians and Israel said it suspected one of its soldiers had been seized. Israeli Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahusaid Hamas was responsible for breaking the cease-fire accord with an attack on its forces around an hour after the truce began. He said the military will take “necessary action” against militants. Gaza Health Ministry official Ashraf al-Qedra said by cellphone message that Israeli tanks had fired shells near Rafah in southern Gaza, killing four people and wounding six. The Associated Press said that as many as 35 Palestinians had died. Commenting on the suspected capture of a soldier, Israeli army spokesman Lt. Col. Peter Lerner said troops destroying a tunnel were attacked by militants. DS: He reportedly died.
  •   Tyler Durden: Moments ago ISDA, which yesterday was queried whether a CDS-triggering credit event had taken place in Argentina, made a ruling. Here it is: The Americas [Determinations Committee] met on August 1, 2014 and resolved that a Failure to Pay Credit Event in relation to the Argentine Republic occurred on July 30, 2014. Surprised? Look who is on the ISDA Americas determinations committee.
  • Zero Hedge: For India the problem with a Japanese alliance is that it would also by implication involve the US, the country which has become insolvent and demographically imploding Japan's backer of last and only resort, and thus burn its bridges with both Russia and China. A question emerged: would India embrace the US/Japan axis while foregoing its natural Developing Market, and BRICS, allies, Russia and China. We now have a clear answer and it is a resounding no, because in what was the latest slap on the face of now crashing on all sides US global hegemony, earlier today India refused to sign a critical global trade dea.Specifically, India's unresolved demands led to the collapse of the first major global trade reform pact in two decades. WTO ministers had already agreed the global reform of customs procedures known as "trade facilitation" in Bali, Indonesia, last December, but were unable to overcome last minute Indian objections and get it into the WTO rule book by a July 31 deadline. 

All this and more on...

The Harvey Report! smiley



AC_Doctor's picture

Ebola terror at Gatwick UK airport

Ebola terror at Gatwick as passenger collapses and dies getting off Sierra Leone flight


This shit is gonna get real spooky soon... AC

Spartacus Rex's picture

@ AM So FNV vs. RGLD? Dow vs the SPOO?

Are you charting Euro, Oil and Bonds vs Gold?

Cheers, S. Rex

argentus maximus's picture

Euro against gold, yes. I

Euro against gold, yes. I look at gold against USD, GBP, EUR and JPY.

The bonds I chart each against their home currency a short and a long for each, and oil (both Brent and WTI) I watch in dollars.

Spartacus Rex's picture

@ AM What No CHF?

So, no comparison charting vs the S&P, Oil, Bonds then?

Exactly what are your 21-day linear regression trends telling you at the moment. 

Or is that still too "dangerous" to make any predictions in your eyes?

Cheers, S. Rex

Marchas45's picture


Not very positive for my Silver there Jimmy, hopefully you missed something and prices go up like I believe they will. As for a possibility of hitting 18, My God are you trying to give us a heart attack? LMAO Keep Stacking

P.S. I have a good feeling about this week as I just bought a bunch of PM's this past week. Lol

argentus maximus's picture

@SR I used to look at Suisse

@SR I used to look at Suisse more often but last couple of years it's like the EUR. The charts are on my folder, but I can't say the last time I looked.

@Marchas Silver has held up against big big selling. But the war is not over yet. Every miner that hedges provides more ammo for the bullion banks to "have another go".  We'll see how it fares during Oct-Nov which will likely give them their next best time to have that go. I can wait. As Mr Miyagi said in The Karate kid, "Patience grasshoppa!" Also and very important for anyone looking at that chart to know, the weekly harmonic projection will always go sideways in the main. It's the size of the price swings (up and down) compared to it's swings that tell the story that matters most about trending, range boundary breaks tell the rest.

argentus maximus's picture

@SR My 21 day regression

@SR My 21 day regression analysis? I don't rely on one single timeframe for anything. Regression is not predictive of when anything will occur, but merely that the regression is statistically likely to occur.

I'm on record a couple of weeks ago in http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/418751#comment-418751

For convenience:

>>>> This is a time to be very careful in PMs. The price is knocking about the level I described above and half the week is past and it's still there.

The more time spent attempting but failing to get over this level, the higher the probability that price will accellerate to the downside to make a final swift downswing to a probable last low. Such a move would, in order to get going, involve a failed attempt to rise above the recent high and containing down trend line, followed by a gap down through the first support level to trap recent bulls in for the slide.

If the above setup forms my "roadmap chart" (with the blue swings on it)  is tracking weekly gold towards a final low without need to change it much.

The alt scenario: gold climbs above the recent inflection and remaining there is likely to provoke a bear crushing spike upwards, if it works that way. But right now (too soon to be sure, watch for the conditions of setup) I think that bear squeeze rally looks like awaiting until after the downswing described above.<<<<

It never took out the inflection day close or range so the alt didn't get to play and short term  bearishness was the correct way to be.

Since we got through the 27 July without serious change (visible yet), the next time we get to possibly reset that would most likely be 11-13 August. Watch the setup where I'll post incoming geopolitical-violence peaks during the week. These are driving gold to a significant degree and frustrating the bears so far. I think maybe I need to start paying attention to the gaps between those GV peaks from here on as times of possible gold weakness. For now, basis SLV daily, watch the action 24 hours either side of 11 August as setting a level which will harden whichever side of it price ends up on..

Safety Dan's picture

I don't yet think we are "out

I don't yet think we are "out of the woods", but certainly more volatility is coming:

2014.08.02 VIX Cycle Model Chart

vix20140801.jpg2014.08.01 VIX Cycle Model Chart

The VIX cycle model suggests that we will continue to see an increase in volatility from now until the end of 2014. The model lagged behind the price curve for a month, and readers should keep this in mind when interpreting the model output. A previous model which also includes a z-score is seen below and here.

vix20140509z.jpg2014.05.09 VIX Cycle Model

And that would seem to increase the price of gold, as seen below.

2014.07.25 Gold Cycle Model Chart

au20140725s.jpg2014.07.25 Gold Cycle Model

The gold cycle model seems to be suggesting that a multi-year bottom for gold is now past and that gold prices are headed higher with an approximate price maximum of 2700 in the late 2015 time frame. A previous iteration of the gold cycle model can be found here and below.

au20140425s.jpg2014.04.25 Gold Cycle Model

Got Gold?

AlienEyes's picture

Ebola : The Black Swan

I remember when we were looking at a haircut for all US dollar funds. Didn’t happen.

I remember when we were anticipating $3,000 gold and $75 silver. That didn’t happen either.

I remember when we were expecting martial law. Close, but no cigar.

Now we are looking death in the eye and that seems more likely than any of the above. If the N.O.W. is looking for blameless population reduction, ebola really could be the perfect instrument of mass destruction. What is not being discussed is the scientific fact that ebola can mutate at any time. Mutate into something even worse than it is in its present form. Something faster and even more lethal. Something that can be transmitted easier, perhaps via mosquitos or fleas. The only thing we can be happy about is that ebola is not a retrovirus with a high mutation rate (as in HIV/AIDS).

I have two friends that are married. They both have PhD’s in molecular biology. I asked them not long ago, “What is the biggest threat to the human race at this time?” Their answers were identical. Population was number one and both added that stupidity and religion were a close second and third. Dense population is a paradise for infectious disease. If we fail to contain ebola, people won’t even remember the left handed excrement we have been handed by our leaders. The time could come when private firearms may be used to stop those that would infect our loved ones by people that are trying to steal our food. The government is already the enemy. It’s just a matter of time until the idiots in D.C. finally do something that is so stupid that the voters will show their displeasure with hot lead instead of wasted votes.

Spartacus Rex's picture

@ Alien Eyes

You are the perennial optimist! laugh Cheers, S. Rex

Spartacus Rex's picture

Filed Under: U Simply Can't Make This Sh*t Up!

HSBC urges government to delay bank ring-fencing (until 2019???)


Spartacus Rex's picture

India Snatching Up Swiss Gold, Silver

Gold loving India is hoarding Swiss gold, and recently accounted for 42% of total gold and silver leaving Switzerland.


Spartacus Rex's picture

It Is Much Bigger Than You Think

By: Bill Murphy, LemetropoleCafe.com 

Posted Sunday, 3 August 2014 |


AlienEyes's picture

@ Spartacus Rex

"We report. You decide."  laugh

Spartacus Rex's picture

Latest From Louse Yamada...

Gold Chart – False Breakdowns And Breakouts Suggest Indecision

Gold Silver Worlds | August 3, 2014

Gold – False breakout?

Gold Spot price (latest: $1293.33) experienced a false short-term breakout through the April 2014 peak at 1,327, and promptly fell back into the narrow trading range of the past 4 months (see Figure 22 left). In failing, Gold put in place a third lower rally peak since 2013 (see red arcs) suggesting there is not yet enough demand to get through those resistance levels. Each lower rally peak suggests someone coming in to sell the rally.

Similarly, however, following the May false breakdown and June recovery, there has also not been enough supply to carry price lower than the 1,272 low of the four-month trading range.

The false breakdowns and breakouts suggest indecision. Therefore, we would await a sustained penetration of either the resistance at 1,327 or the support at 1,280 to indicate the potential for a more tradable trend. All of this price behavior is still taking place within the wider, more important trading range in place since May 2013 between 1,200 and 1,400 (to 1,420).

Breaching either of these levels would be a more important indication of the next sustainable direction than that of the narrower range discussed above, which might offer a trading opportunity, but not necessarily a sustainable trend.

Looking at the longer-term profile of Gold (see Figure 22, right), one can note that Gold is trending toward, hovering near, the very important level of the 2005 long-term uptrend, representing the bull market for Gold (up 648% from 2005-2011). The intersect of this critical uptrend comes in now at the important support level of 1,200. A breach of this support / uptrend would bode ill for Gold and could suggest a further slip toward 1,150-1,000. The monthly momentum is still negative but close to a potential Buy signal, which might not come into play without price exceeding the 1,400 level. Gold is still neutral.
gold price daily 2013 July 2014 category technicals

There is a lot of excitement over the perceived “bottom” in the gold stocks, and some have indeed lifted from bases S but not all. If we use the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (see Figure 23, GDX) there is a case that can be made for a basing formation that would allow a rally to the downtrend.

But technically, this is still a rather neutral trend, without yet a higher high in place. There is also the possibility, as for Gold, that the support could become vulnerable again. We prefer to await the proof of new demand and see the pattern complete, either as a base, or as additional distribution.

GDX weekly chart 2010 July 2014 category technicals


Silver Spot price (latest: $20.32)  also failed in its rally to overcome the prior rally peak at 22 from February and now has short-term support at the MAs at 20.26 and 20. A penetration of either level could suggest the next direction.


Platinum Spot price (latest: $1464.13) has been inching along in an uptrend for the year, concentrating in the upper half of the wider neutral trading range above 1,400. Price addressed resistance at 1,500-1,550, also the intersect with the 2011 downtrend (see circle). Penetrating these levels would suggest continuation of the advance. A breach of the 2014 uptrend, now being tested, and the MAs at 1,435, would suggest renewed weakness.

platinum weekly chart 2010 July 2014 category technicals


Palladium Spot price (latest: $864.85)  only briefly consolidated the breakout through 800 before extending the advance through the 2011 high (see Figure 25), leaving only the 2001 high near 1,125 outstanding. The four-year breakout suggests there should be further gains ahead and the monthly momentum is on a Buy signal (see arrow) confirming that probability. Price could advance eventually to challenge the old high. Supports come in at 850 and 800, near the 2009 uptrend, for any potential pullback.

palladium monthly chart 2001 July 2014 category technicals

Louise Yamada is one of the most respected technical analysts we are following is Louise Yamada. Her independent research company provides in-depth and thought-provoking analysis on all markets, including precious metals. An outstanding feature of the analysis is that readers are offered different perspectives on each market, which sometimes reveals trends that are rather invisible. For precious metals investors it helps to put the metals markets activity in a broad perspective of ongoing market trends. In other words, understanding broad market activity is helpful to interpret the state of the metals market. 

Subscribe to the monthly analysis of Louise Yamada for in-depth insights on ongoing market activity: www.lyadvisors.com.


ivars's picture

At the same time, USA and

At the same time, USA and China is eager to give signals they are not completely at odds over e.g. Russia:



China, Australia and the United States will conduct their first trilateral military exercise in October. Compared to the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) multinational naval exercises, the scale of "Exercise Kowari", which will take place in Australia, is small, but it still has significance.

First, it marks the fact that during the process of building a new model relationship between great powers, China, Australia and the US are expanding into new fields. Military exchanges between countries are one of the most important indicators to measure a relationship. As three major countries in the Asia-Pacific region, China, Australia and the US have a pivotal position and role in maintaining peace and stability in the region.


The gradual increase in joint military exercises between the two countries in recent years shows that China and the US have recognized that only by seeking common interests, and preventing or eliminating conflicts, can the two parties achieve cooperation and a win-win situation rather than confrontation and conflict.

Finally, it shows the growing confidence and transparency of China and the PLA.

With China's growing military power and influence, Sino-US joint military exercises will become increasingly common. Military cooperation between China and other countries will also receive more attention and bring further positive energy to the region and the rest of the world.

Its Russia who is left in the blue by BOTH USA and China. China is just waiting with open paws for the the prey to be pushed into its hands by the West.  Demarcation/creation  of spheres of interest for two reserve currency market zones ongoing, duty to do this lies on the USA. Hence irrational self defeating USA behavior which is rational from global (incl. USA ruling families)  bankers point of view; and that rationality that really matters-  as we see from unfolding of real life events. 

El Gordo's picture

How long will it be...

...until we are pronounced "racists" if we disapprove of opening our borders to ebola infected people?  I predict by the end of this week at the latest.

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Gold, oil are best plays in such times: Jim Rogers

'Ukraine is more dangerous because unfortunately nobody seems to be getting it right . Also, there are too many people involved.'

'Ukraine is more dangerous because unfortunately nobody seems to be getting it right . Also, there are too many people involved.'

In a chat with ET Now, commodities guru Jim Rogers shares his view on global and Indian markets in view of the ongoing geopolitical tensions. Excerpts:

ET Now: When it comes to the geopolitical tensions from Ukraine and Gaza, do you expect any repercussions on equity as well as commodity markets? Or, any change in risk aversion?

Jim Rogers: They've already had an impact on some markets. Last week, US stock markets were down 2-3 per cent. This means somebody is paying attention. Unfortunately, we have had problems in Gaza for at least 40 years now and I am afraid we might have another 40 years given where things are going. Eruptions break out and they always have an effect and will continue to do so. We have all been making many mistakes there for a long time now; and I am afraid we will continue to do so.

Is this the beginning of the Third World War? I doubt it. Someday, one of them - Gaza or Israel - may get out of control. But fortunately, too much of the world is focusing on it now to rein in the woes.

Ukraine is more dangerous because unfortunately nobody seems to be getting it right ... This is going to erupt further, but it is more dangerous because there are too many people involved.

ET Now: Wider risk-aversion throws in investment opportunities. Any regions and economies that are looking good to you at this juncture?

Jim Rogers: If war breaks out, then what you play is gold, oil, commodities, etc. War is not good for anything except for real assets because people need real assets during the time of war - whether they are involved in the war or just protecting themselves. Other than that, I do not see any of this being good for anybody or anything.

ET Now: What do you make of the statements coming from FOMC and the recent data from the US? By when do you expect to see a rise in interest rates?

Jim Rogers: It is clear to me that what is going to happen is that as the US pulls back (stimulus), interest rates will go higher or stock markets will go down eventually, or both will happen. Unfortunately, when that happens, people in Washington - bureaucrats, academics, etc - are going to get scared or will panic. When people call them up and tell them that the pain is too great, they are going to relent and start printing money again ... Markets will breathe a sigh of relief, they will rally, go up for a while; but unfortunately that may then lead to the last leg of this poor market because rather than staying the course - which central banks have rarely done in the past few decades - they say everything is okay, but things will just get worse.

ET Now: There is a lot of excitement among investors towards India post the change of guard. Do you share the same optimism that Modi will turn the Indian economy around?

Jim Rogers: I would like to. He has said and done a lot of good things in the past; he has done some bad things too. Unfortunately, his Budget was not very exciting. Yes, he does not control the Upper House and cannot do so for another year. But even then one has to wonder why he is not doing things now.

ET Now: One commodity which impacts substantially from an India point of view is oil. What levels do you expect in 6 to 12 months?

Jim Rogers: I do not know. I am a bad market timer and a short-term trader. What I do know is that this surprise is going to be over the next few years - as to how high the price of oil stays and how high it goes. Reserves of oil worldwide are in a decline and that is going to cause problems down the road.

ET Now: Not only are prices of crude oil declining, but prices of natural gas have also slipped quite fast. What is your sense about the whole sector? Currently, gas is down and oil is firm.

Jim Rogers: Natural gas prices are very low. They are down 60-70 per cent from their all-time high. There has been a glut in the US in a way where the prices have been set on the futures exchanges. That glut is probably not going to last much longer, so I would suspect that natural gas is a good bet for people to start looking for investments.

ET Now: Gold prices are stuck in a range. There is pressure from a stronger dollar and equities, while also support coming in from geopolitical concerns. Where do you see gold prices headed?

Jim Rogers: I am neither a buyer nor a seller of gold. I own gold. I would suspect there will be another chance to buy gold sometime in the next year or two. I am doing nothing at the moment.

ET Now: Base metals have seen a big run-up on the back of strong manufacturing numbers from the US, Europe and now China. Do you see the run-up continuing in some industrial metals?

Jim Rogers: Yes, I would rather buy base metals than precious metals, mainly because metals were beaten down more and we do know that expansion capital spending in the base metals industry has been cut back dramatically. This is because people are worried that not much has happened in precious metals and there are still a lot of precious metals in inventory worldwide. This is not true for base metals.


DeaconBenjamin's picture

CME Group earnings miss estimates due to weak volumes

CHICAGO, July 31 (Reuters) - CME Group Inc will cut costs by reducing hiring and employee travel to help compensate for weak trading volumes, the chief financial officer said on Thursday after the world's largest futures market operator posted lower-than-expected earnings.

Shares fell 2.7 percent after CME Group said trading volumes, along with clearing and transaction fees, dropped 12 percent in the second quarter as volatility levels slumped while expenses were up 3.7 percent.

Revenue dropped 10 percent to $731.6 million.


erewenguy's picture

Although this article is

Although this article is entitled "5 Things Magicians Knew Before Scientists Did", it is equally applicable to the psychology of MOPE.

Go to the link for the original article. I just copied and pasted the article, but made a few "corrections" noted by BOLD LARGE CAPS...

"Magicians are in the business of testing the limits and nature of human perception. It's no surprise, then, that today's CENTRAL BANKERS are uncovering features of the mind that magicians have understood (and exploited) for hundreds of years. A close look at some of the many books on conjuring published since the 16th century reveals insights that are only now making their way into the WORLD ECONOMY.

1. Don’t Look Now, But...

Sleight-of-hand artists have long used subtle eye movements to manipulate the attention of their audiences. In their 1909 book The Art of Magic, T. Nelson Downs and John Northern Hilliard wrote that “it is scarcely necessary to say,” that while performing a secret maneuver, “[t]he eyes of the performer ... must never for an instant glance at the right hand” as it executes the sleight. “Should the performer forget himself in this respect,” they caution, “the audience will instantly suspect” a move has occurred.

In recent years, the effect of "gaze perception" on everything from attention to social cognition has become a rich area of psychological research. Not surprisingly, magic has proven a useful experimental tool. In their 2009 article in the journal Visual Cognition [PDF], for instance, researchers at the University of Durham measured how a magician’s gaze influenced the attention of 32 spectators during a trick. Sure enough, the authors found that “THE PUBLIC spent less time looking at the critical ECONOMIC NEWS when the FED CHAIR'S STATEMENT ON QUANTITATIVE EASING was used to misdirect their attention away from the STATE OF THE ECONOMY.” Downs and Hilliard had scooped them by a century.

2. What’s the Difference?

Yet another topic to catch fire among CENTRAL BANKERS in the last two decades is so-called “change blindness,” or, as researchers Daniel Simons and Ronald Rensink have described it, “the striking failure to see large changes that normally would be noticed easily.” In one representative experiment, a FED CHAIR REFERS TO GOVERNMENT INFLATION AND EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS to ask for directions. This exchange is briefly interrupted by two individuals carrying a large door, during which time the original INDEX is replaced by a different METHOD OF MEASURING THE STATISTICS entirely. In more than half the cases, the pedestrians giving directions didn’t notice when their INDICES completely transformed into a new MEASUREMENT.

Of course, magicians got there first. In the domain of card magic, for example, many methods rely on minor visual discrepancies that, even to a close observer, are all but invisible. Some effects require two similar-looking cards—the eight of spades and eight of clubs, say—to be swapped, often quite brazenly. Perhaps the earliest published mention of this specific principle appeared in August Roterberg’s 1897 book New Era Card Tricks.

3. Pick a Side Dish, Any Side Dish

Methods for simulating free choice are among the oldest tools available to magicians. Just consider the countless techniques for “forcing” AN INVESTMENT ALLOCATION while maintaining the appearance of free selection from the ASSET CLASSES. The idea existed at least as far back as 1584, when Reginald Scot published The discoverie of witchcraft, the earliest known English-language book to provide detailed descriptions of conjuring tricks.

And yet, the insight that irrelevant, invisible factors can influence our decisions in predictable and unnoticed ways is just now getting its due in the academic world, most notably among practitioners of behavioral AND FINANCIAL economics. The field has produced a steady stream of bestselling books, and earned one of its forefathers, Daniel Kahneman, the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. It’s also become a favorite of policy experts like Cass Sunstein, who has argued vigorously for using insights from behavioral economics to secretly “nudge” citizens towards certain decisions, whether saving for retirement (not my edit, actually in the article!) or choosing healthier foods.

4. Where Were You the Night the Elephant Disappeared?

Imperfect memories can be a conjurer’s best friend. For audiences, magic performances often seem more impressive—and impossible—in retrospect. As one writer notes in a 1918 issue of the British magic publication the Magic Circular, it is to an audience’s “lapse of memory that we owe half of the wondrous accounts of things that never happen but which enhance our reputation nevertheless.” Indeed, some performers are skilled at encouraging exaggerated memories in ways I’m not at liberty to discuss here.

Our tendency to create less-than-accurate memories after the fact—what psychologists sometimes call “reconstructive memory”—has been gaining much notice lately, particularly with regards to its effects on eyewitness testimony in DEFICIT SPENDING AND FIAT DEVALUATION. Psychologist Elizabeth Loftus has found, for instance, that the questions “asked immediately after an event can introduce new—and not necessarily correct—information which is then added” to a witness’ memory [PDF].

5. The PUBLIC is Always Right—Unfortunately

Cognitive shortcomings don’t always work to a magician’s advantage. As working performers know all too well, it’s not uncommon for an audience member to interrupt a trick by shouting out an incorrect explanation for the effect being performed (“it’s up your sleeve!” and “magnets!” AND "YOU ARE STEALING OUR WEALTH AND TURNING FUTURE GENERATIONS INTO DEBT SLAVES" are perennial favorites). Even when such ill-considered assertions explain nothing at all (how could a magnet be involved in a coin vanish?), it’s sometimes enough to leave audiences unimpressed.

Such episodes serve as textbook examples of what psychologists Frank Keil and Leonid Rozenblit have named the “illusion of explanatory depth,” or the feeling that we “understand complex phenomena with far greater precision, coherence, and depth than [we] really do.” As they write in a 2002 paper in the journal Cognitive Science [PDF], “laypeople ... usually remain unaware of the incompleteness of their theories,” in part because they “rarely have to offer full explanations for most of the phenomena that they think they understand.” I still say it was magnets."


So - I am actually appreciating the fact that we seem to be getting much closer to the 5th observation - The Public is Always Right. For too long we have enjoyed the illusion that governments and central banks have the public's best interest in mind. Many people may not really understand why their real experiences in the economy do not align with the story being spun, but enough are now shouting down "the magicians". More and more people are becoming unimpressed with the magic show.

If you are not impressed with the show, you are more likely to simply leave rather than waste your time. Invest in metals, prepare for your own provision, reduce your tax burden. Get Out of the System.

The magicians seem to lose their power when their audience doesn't want to sit through their BS shows any longer.

buzlightening's picture

If this don't beat all for me personally.

You've been talkin physical gold and silver to neighbors on and off for years.  Now one says to me at a close community gathering yesterday he's started to buy silver.  Not a lot but he's easing in on some physical as he sees the economy going no where but in the toilet with lil scamBO at the helm.  He's a prepper by natural circumstance up here in high country Northern UT but trading in some frns for physical silver was unexpected. Goes to the premise here that people are awaking.  It may be slowly but more coming to the prepping table and taking up physical silver as the peoples money.  Never say never!  There are intelligent folks watching and waking up daily and stepping away from the EEE status quo of financial fiat paper ponzi.

benque's picture


I like your sense of humour!cheeky

DeaconBenjamin's picture

Germany scraps major arms deal with Russia

Germany has stopped a major deal to provide a fully equipped training camp to Russian forces due to the crisis in Ukraine, the government said Monday.
Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel said he has withdrawn his authorisation for the training camp project, which had already been put on hold in March after Moscow's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region.
He confirmed a report in the daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung citing the decision to scrap the contract, reportedly valued at 100 million euros ($134 million).
"We consider it indefensible in the current situation," a ministry spokeswoman said later when asked about the move.
Russia previously called the decision to halt the arms deal "unconstructive," accusing Berlin of acting under pressure from the United States.
German defence group Rheinmetall, the contractors for the military training camp, had said in March that the company would fulfil its contractual obligations to build the centre, which German media said would train 30,000 soldiers a year.
The camp was to have been built in the Volga region, and was scheduled to open later this year.
Rheinmetall could not immediately be reached for comment.
The ministry spokeswoman said that the government was in contact with the firm, which will have the opportunity to claim financial damages for the scrapping of the contract.
By stopping the deal, Germany goes beyond economic sanctions against Russia agreed last week by the European Union.
Those restrictions ban arms exports to Russia but do not cover existing contracts, including a 1.2-billion-euro deal by France to deliver two Mistral warships to Russia.
Paris has said it would go ahead with the sale of the first vessel, drawing criticism from European partners including Germany and Britain.
A spokesman for German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Berlin hoped that tougher sanctions covering already signed deals could still be agreed.
"The European Council decided what it decided... but if at the end of the negotiations there were to be an improvement, we would welcome it," the spokesman, Georg Streiter, told reporters.
Germany, whose trade ties with Russia amounted to nearly 90 billion euros last year, had long resisted imposing broad economic sanctions against Moscow.          

But the alleged shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 by pro-Moscow rebels with a Russian-made missile last month led the EU's top economic power to adopt a firmer line.


agNau's picture



*I would think perhaps a bit naive to believe they will not be back in the game. Is this a "reset" as we have heard from the LAGARDE? An attempt to continue will surface. Supply will still trump. IMO.

ancientmoney's picture

Bill Murphy (GATA) on PM fraud . . . it's bigger than you think

"Fleckenstein, Grant, and Casey are known for their individualistic thinking outside the box. Yet when it comes to what GATA has to say, they erupt. While they are all individuals, as a group it is about taking on "all the money and power in the word." They like to be known as "edgy" in the establishment world, but not to be known as taking them on. Think of them as wearing the flashy pants at a conservative country club. Yet what they don’t want is to get thrown out of the club for being unacceptable."


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