Resistance

Yes, I and many others expect a rally...a significant rally...in the 2nd half of this year. So this post is one to bookmark as we'll discuss the various points on the chart where we can expect resistance to emerge. (It's also a cheap reason to post this video again).

That song by Muse has long been an "anthem" here at TFMR. "Resistance" and "Uprising" were both BIG sounds back in 2010 and 2011 and they remain no less relevant today as the forces of encroaching tyranny have only grown stronger and more outlandish.

"Kill your prayers for love and peace. You'll wake The Thought Police."

So, with that as a backdrop, where might we find chart to resistance to the rally that is, most assuredly coming? (And, again, NOT just because the painted chart says so. The London gold is "Gone...For Good" and the eventual realization of this will spur the rally to eventual new highs and beyond.)

Let's start with gold. For a plethora reasons, gold will NOT be breaking  down through The Double Bottom low of $1180. It will. instead, reverse course by later this month and then begin a slow-momentum build through the 2nd half of 2014. First and foremost, gold must cross these two red lines on this daily chart:

But we're just getting started, though, and if gold is indeed going to rally all the way to $2000 and beyond, we certainly can't expect just an endless series of UPticks. There will be stopping points along the way where "overboughtedness" will need to be worked off before the trend can continue higher. ("Resistance points, you seek. Searching for stopping points, you are." -- a little Yoda love for you.) On this weekly chart, quite a few lines emerge. The first major line of resistance will be at $1320. After that...well you can see where it's not going to be easy.

Turning to silver, as in gold I DO NOT expect new lows. After the complete and total washout of last June, price has yet to return to $18.20 and I don't think it will this time, either. Especially not with The Specs having already built a larger short position than at the bottom last year. So, if a turnaround is an eventuality, where will silver encounter resistance? On the daily chart below, you can once again see all of the lines we've been watching, namely $19.20, $20.20 and $20.60.

And the weekly chart holds a very important clue. Recall the effort expended earlier to keep silver below the main trendline that stretches back to the highs of 2011. Well look how close we are to finally wedging into the corner created by that line and the MAJOR SUPPORT of $18. Moving through this line and heading back toward $20 and then $22 will be your sign that the long, slow, arduous decline is finally over and a new BULL has begun. Breaking $22, then $26 and then $36 will be mileposts along the way to a full recovery and beyond.

Again, I urge you to bookmark this page and save it for future reference. The 2nd half of this year and then 2015 are going to be very interesting times to be alive. Prepare accordingly.

TF

 

67 Comments

Turd Ferguson's picture

And this is getting worser and worser

MODERATOR

Watch these events closely...

 

nzallblack's picture

FIRST

F-35's..

tmosley's picture

God, al-Qaeda has modern

God, al-Qaeda has modern military hardware AND $400 million dollars now.

I'm pretty sure the administration had a hand in this.  It's way, way, WAY too convenient.

47 Protons's picture

Thurd

Thurd!!

Well, that was fun (NOT!) Finally, after 6 weeks, JNUG is back above water for me!! Sorry, I forgot to tell everyone I was buying on 4/28... As part of my new service...  "trade opposite eric". ;-)

november4's picture

God, al-Queda....

Yeah, the administration did have a hand in it.  The Bush-Cheney administration.

Turd Ferguson's picture

And again, contemplate the

MODERATOR

And again, contemplate the geo-political aspects of this. These ISIS cats are Bad Dudes and Sunni. Enemies of Iran and current government of Iraq. Allies to "rebels" in Syria. Thus also enemies of Turkey but maybe slightly allied with Saudi.

A complete and total mess is unfolding here with tremendous risks and uncertainty ahead. For now, there is a reluctance to drive crude through $105. Well, we'll see about that and keep in mind how gold was rallying last summer with crude during the Syrian nonsense that Woody tried to pull. Could we be headed there for real this time? If so, just another reason to expect a sharp turnaround and reversal in gold in the 2nd half.

Barfly's picture

Such declarative statements

Man, oh man... How many other people out there looking at (manipulated, painted) charts are just as certain about the scenario you've outlined as you are? What an opportunity for the manipulators of the casino to herd everyone into the same position and then pull the rug right out from underneath them. Anyone remember April, 2013 and how the charts looked then? It was only a year ago. Weren't they awfully similar, even more convincing in fact, with that quadruple bottom at $1525 (gold) Turd mentioned the other day?

I don't know about anyone else, but my gut tells me to keep the powder dry. Are there any indicators other than the chart that say this market is going to break to the upside? Is there any smart money getting positions? Are SLV and GLD getting an influx of investors? Is there any fear out there in the mass of sheeple? Any indication of doubt whatsoever that the financial system is sound? We're in a fairy tale bizzarro world market where fundamentals don't count for anything. Who in the public cares about the cost of production for gold and silver? I remember once the price of crude dropped to half of the cost of production.  I suppose all that could turn on a dime, but because of how a chart looks, I don't think so...

Sighting in the scope. Keeping the powder dry.

Patriot Family's picture

Militants $430 million richer

I find it hard to believe there will not be a massive attempt to sweep this news under the carpet.  If I were in our intelligence services and still a patriot I would be very, very worried about this.  The AQ operatives aren't stupid, they'll move that money quickly and it will be hard to track down.  Meanwhile, I wouldn't be surprised to see a US strike on hardware located at that airport.  Doubtful it has any equipment on board that would compromise our own security, but they are still flying weapons platforms.

Edited to add: some mention on ZeroHedge of possibility these guys were trained and equipped by the US.

Urban Roman's picture

Question about that $400 million

Did they get a cashier's check for the money? Is it in used $10s and $20s? Or is it Dinars in some form? How big a suitcase did they need to carry it in?

The reason I ask this is, my local bank branch got robbed a few years ago, and I think the robbers got $4000.00, approximately. That was all the cash they had on hand. They keep less now. If I want cash (more than $500) from that bank, I have to ask beforehand, and wait a day or two.

Barfly's picture

$430 Million?

Is that in gold, or toilet paper?

4 oz's picture

Guess I'm just a PM Dog~~

lol

Patriot Family's picture

Please hold off on allowing PMs to begin the uptrend...

Would love to see a rally later in 2014.  I planned on using fiat to install a Banks PowerPack exhaust system my newer Ford truck, and replacing the suspension and fuel system on my older '78 Ford truck in July.  If anyone has a direct line to Yellen and the Fed please remember to drop my plans into the conversation.  Price suppression can continue for another 3-4 months and I am fine with it.  I would appreciate it if the powers that be would hold off for another few months so I can buy more PMs.

OceanX's picture

Videos...

Well, as long as you are posting videos, give this a listen: 

A surprisingly excellent bluegrass cover...

lakedweller2's picture

Two Thoughts

Oil:  The unintended consequences of Cheney and friends desire to control Iraqui Oil is now apparent.

Eric Cantor:  Blankfein, Goldman CEO, publically compliments the great job Eric Cantor did in Congress. 

jwmkratz's picture

Rehypothication of Commodities in China

If this story has legs, it very well could produce a "black swan" event, much like we saw in 2007-2008. The levered ties to various world banks would put some serious risk on the table.  Not to mention what it would do to China's economy. MSM either hasn't caught on or is avoiding the story altogether.  Couple this with all the other world events unfolding,  it would invigorate the commodities market... and the metals would be in play. I have a hard time believing  with all the hotspots burning,  the world will be able to sidestep them all, and thread the needle once again. It's like a guy spinning plates at a carnival...just add one too many, and they'll all come down. 

devilsmetal's picture

I think they are going to

I think they are going to crash the price until they break the system, and at that point, everything will be reset.  

Apparently no one thinks the large funds are going to cover here for a short rally then a crash for expirations day?

Turd Ferguson's picture

Palladium is at $862 right

MODERATOR

Palladium is at $862 right this second, after briefly tapping $864. Watch it closely, just for fun. An interesting study in price dynamics.

http://www.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-11/palladium-surges-14-year-high-can-go-1000-miner-strikes

Marchas45's picture

@ Patriot Family Let It Ripp

No offence but I've been waiting 3.5 years and I have constantly bought PM's and lived without the luxuries of a good meal out, a new car, a holiday, see were I'm going with this? I'm stacking for When The Shit Hits The Fan and I have been prepping for years so let it rip and I'm truly sorry your not ready. A lot of folks aren't. wink

Turd Ferguson's picture

"Apparently no one thinks..."

MODERATOR

My friend, you need to be listening to the podcasts each day. I laid this type of thing out just yesterday. 

The second half of June and December last year was when the real action began. Caution is still warranted here.

Turd Ferguson's picture

worser still

MODERATOR
NW VIEW's picture

CRAIG HAS PUSHED MY BUTTONS!

My grandfather was shot in France in WW1 and packed the lead within until he died.  My older brothers fought in the Pacific in  WW2, one a gunner on a battleship and the other a P.O.W. in the Philippines until he was rescued, taken to a U.S. hospital for six months to recover from the cane beatings.  I almost visited  Viet Nam but missed the conflict.  However my classmates like Paul, spent tours in the jungle and he is still messed up to this day.  When I see him, I just hug him.  He said that he will never have a normal life nor a normal relationship with a woman.  To many drugs and killings.

We had friend/clients who were pilots in Iraq/Afghanistan and now they are in the cemetery, their wives have moved onward with new relationships.  My brother-in-law, ex Viet Nam soldier (shot), now visits that country and the people are friendly. 

We will see the withdrawal of our troops from these many foreign shores to be placed in new combat zones and the beat goes on.  The cost of being a policeman of the world is great and our kids pay the full price for our political views.  Yes we are great friends  today with Germany, Viet Nam and Japan.  It would have been better to have been friends before WW1 started.   I will stop here before the rant starts.    jmo

Markedtofuture's picture

CHART OF THE DAY - Gold Scents

Patriot Family's picture

Marchas45 - I am prepared

I've probably sunk a disproportionate amount of my savings into PMs.  I'd just like to buy more, that's all, because I really hold no trust in the current financial system and I'd also like to profit from this, not just protect whatever wealth I have.  On the other preparedness fronts, we are doing well (food, etc.).  Hence, the trucks.  I can move a heckuva lot of materials in those trucks, and handle rough terrain/snow with one of them.  We have been diligently searching for rural property in NE Washington and Idaho, so we are making changes to a couple of our vehicles to prepare for the move and some semblance of rural life.  I don't want my wife and kids snowed in if I happen to be off working in the city.  Our new focus after that will be onsite food production.

We've contemplated selling off the 1978 ford many times and use the proceeds to buy even more in PMs.  Unfortunately we've just had way too much fun on date nights in the thing, and it's a conversation point in the Home Depot parking lot and at the auto parts store.  It's true, old trucks do have some kind of allure when they are painted and fixed up and the old V8 just rumbles at idle.  My kids have also threatened to mutiny if I sell it.

I'm now looking at a '66 Ford that has spent it's life in the desert (no rust).  This may be the signs of an addiction.  We'd buy this one to restore and flip for profit.

Urban Roman's picture

Ahh, answered my own question

After reading TFA, it was Dinars and bullion.

They better check the bullion for tungsten...

infometron's picture

@OceanX

Great cover of a great song! Thanks!

Here is another take by Cake:

Both of which remind me of this timeless classic by Steppenwolf (remember them?):

"America, where are you now?"

chocolatechiphorses's picture

Coming to a bank near you

This happened in Australia.  It won't be long before it hits the US.

ABSOLUTE DESPOTISM: Australian Gov’t Snatches $360 MILLION From “idle” Bank Accounts

http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/government-snatches-idle-accounts/story-e6frfku9-1226949007917

CCHorses

hans007's picture

sell the truck, and buy the

sell the truck, and buy the PM first.   buy the all new aluminum 2015 f-150 when it comes out with the proceeds. ;)

realitybiter's picture

Northern Iraq is just "happening"?

We drone wedding parties in Pakistan with nothing more than triangulated cellphone signals and intel on association to bad guys.....and Northern Iraq is just "happening"? We are "surprised" that an insurgent group acquires money and blackhawks? Wonder who will help them spend that money?

This just happened? I don't think so. This is us, arming them, so they go do dirty work and create problems...

We bombed (illegally) the crap out of Cambodia during the 70's....and then they got Pol Pot out of the vacuum which we created.

I don't know. I'm sure Vicks and Val, do. Great.

Eric Cantor was AIPACs number two funding recipients. Traitor. A Foreign Country, creating a political action committee to buy reps. disgusting for any Country - India, Italy, Iraq, or Israel....they are US Reps PERIOD. Will be interesting to see how pure Brats financing is....

SS121's picture

How could Silver stacking conditions get any better??

Real Silver is still available at paper silver chart prices...

They've done everything they can to make silver look 'unappealing' and 18-19 is as low as they can go.

At this point surely nobody is holding out trying to save pennies per oz.?

Stacking at lower prices when Silver is unavailable can be difficult.

What does a current "waiting for silver to be available at lower prices" person do when it goes to 25, 40, 100 etc?  Keep waiting?

There is Stacking and Not Stacking, waiting falls under the category of Not Stacking.

1 Year Silver Prices - Silver Price Chart

They hate Silver.  Silver is the key to the undoing of the entire fake WFCS!! If they could take that chart significantly lower, they would.

Already stacked out and just holding a little dry powder to make chart-watching more interesting?? Then whatever.

But to newbs just realizing that acquiring physical Silver is right now the opportunity of many lifetimes, (and still available)...  Go Stack it up!  It doesn't get any better, especially not relative to the risk of waiting. 

Once the price chart takes off from here, it's not coming back.  

When the masses pile in- Silver should easily run into the (est.) hundreds.

After the silver chart is dead,(no longer the price reference for physical Silver transactions) it will be "name your price", in the (est.) thousands.

Their long losing effort to prevent Silver from returning to it's Monetary role has been many years.  The silver chart's final effort, and then death, will not take years or even months.  

Dry powder isn't Money.  Throughout history dry powder hasn't stored well, especially near the end of a Monetary Cycle.

"Nothing" is as it seems in the global economies/markets, so if they can't make it look any worse for silver... how could stacking get any better?

Everybody has to row their own boat.  All above just a few points to consider.

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