Silver Market Cycles

I enclose a selection of charts for readers which show my personal preferred interpretation of the present status of time cycles in the silver market.

I say "preferred" because these things are adjusted to remove "noise" and this is an expertise and also a subjective thing, which my current knowledge, or even mood can affect for unintended bias to up or down side.

So let's go:

First the 7-8 year cycle in silver:

As can be seen there are two ways to plot this long term cycle. Taken off the 2011 all time high it bottoms during the month of June 2015, or a year away. But taken as a best fit with the historical movement of the silver market this cycle can be plotted with it's top on the 2012 high, and this way it does not make it's low, for this particular cycle, until September 2016.

Next the "presidential" pump-and-elect cycle:

This 4 year cycle appears to have bottomed during the past 6 months.

Next the "congressional" pump-and-elect cycle:

This 2 year cycle has been modified by the "quantitative easing" or "money printing for banks" scheme run by the Federal Reserve and cohort central banks whereby money was created and given interest cost free to the owner-members of the Fed. As can be seen this appears to have caused inversions within the congressional pump-and-elect cycle - 2012-13 low became a high - but timing still appears to have held. The 2013-2014 high is suppressed due to possible continued inversion. This cycle is probably trending down towards it's low, but if inversion repeats that turn could be another high, about January 2015.

Next the chart of the seasonal effect in the silver market:

This "cycle" also has been affected, or modified, by coordinated western central bank scheme of giving cost free money to leading banking corporations. Highs from the seasonal effect have been suppressed, as prices of other financial sectors preferred by the banks have risen, and consequently new capital inflows drawn to those markets instead of towards the silver market.

Top 20 timecycles in weekly silver:

When the topmost 20 cycles in silver are taken as a whole the summer to fall of 2014 appears to contain a significant low. Three dates are shown with an interim low, a rally high, and a more significant low for this team of cycles.

Harmonic projection :

This is not a cycle as such, but a proprietary algorithm which links together many repetitive price components within the silver price.

This suggests the the next low will be the better low, end of June 2014, and the following low will be an interim low within the a new uptrend in the price of silver.

The"Weekly Grid":

This is another proprietary algorithm. The price of silver tends to bounce off the datelines and also off the price lines shown, especially where datelines cross price lines:

This suggests that the next low in silver may come a week earlier than end of June and provides two weekly datelines 20 and 28 June 2014.

The blue line above which resembles a moving average, but which moves ahead of the price (unlike moving averages), is designed to call turns and breakouts. It's non-directional, which is to say a turn is important, but the direction may be either same as or contra the actual price turn, if it is a successful forecast and the turn appears. It suggests that silver will break upwards or downwards at the time suggested by the timelines in an either-or scenario outcome.

Stops are therefore required whichever strategy is chosen, to protect against the alternative scenario being the outcome selected by the silver price.

I give special mention of the situation whereby the longer cycles are more bearish, and the medium to shorter term cycles are in many cases transitioning from bearish to bullish during the period from about now for the coming month or two. What this means is a debatable point and leaves plenty of room for argument between bulls and bears.

This is for discussion or entertainment purposes only, and not investment advice.

Argentus Maximus

The author posts daily commentary on the gold and silver markets in the TFMR forum: The Setup For The Big Trade. More information about the author & his work can be found here: RhythmNPrice.

57 Comments

Turd Ferguson's picture

AM this is just terrific

MODERATOR

Thanks again for all your efforts!

dgstage's picture

Good info AM

20 Bizarre Images Will Make You Question Everything Wrong With The World! – Caption These! (Videos)

http://wwwwakeupamericans-spree.blogspot.com/2014/05/20-bizarre-images-will-make-you.html

Dagney Taggart's picture

Screw Silver

Gold will be $1400 by Friday and $1750 by August.

Thanks anyway, AM. wink

argentus maximus's picture

They are more or less

They are more or less presented with out comment about implications, except as to describe what each chart shows.

I'm on a holiday "long" weekend here, so I hope you enjoy them!

Feel free to ..... Criticize! Comment! Debate! Random walkers have at it!

Cheers

AM

gold slut's picture

@ Argentus

Oohh, excellent food for thought Argentus.  I think that is going to keep my little brain going for some time to come.  You do know that you are both a very gifted and bad man all at the same time, don't you?  Now let me trawl through that lot again....

Markedtofuture's picture

Rickards- Either Fed pauses taper or stock market crashes.

Either pauses taper or stock market crashes. Don't take it from me, watch the brilliant  

sierra skier's picture

Cycles are Like Womens Hemlines

They are always on the move and if you keep an old dress the cycle will come back in. In this case the cycles are disrupted by the manipulations and whims of those who tell what to wear. Charts can be one of the great tools in trying to anticipate the direction of our metals.

Gent's picture

Today's Laugher

HEY... WOW .. I got a note from Jamie Dimon ..

From the Desk Of:
Manager: Mr.Jamie Dimon
JP Morgan Chase Bank New York
270 Park Avenue New York,NY,U.S.A
Date:..05 / 11 / 2014
Response to me here(jp.morganchasebka1@gmail.com)

Dear: Beneficiary,

The United States of America Co-operation Management in Conjunction with United Nation Worldwide are pleased to inform you that you are Among the 10 Winners of our Annual Year Lotto Lottery Conducted in the United Sates of America held on 1th, of Jun 2014. Your Email Address Email was Attached to with Serial Number S/N-00221 and Consequently Won in the First Lucky 10 Winner's Lottery Category.

You are therefore been Approved to claim the Sum of Usd$5,000.000.00 only (Five Million United States Dollars) only payable in wire Transfer from Jp Morgan Chase Bank New York City 270 Park Ave. New York City Be informed that every arrangement regarding your payment through Telegraphic Wire Banking transfer has been made by our mangement.

You will have to re-confirm your full information which will be used to set up the account on your name here in the JP Morgan Chase Bank New York 270 Park Ave. New York City

Full Names:
Your Complete Address:
Scan copy of your personal identification
Direct Telephone Number:
Mobile Number:Present Occupation:

NOTE: That you are requested to claim your prize without any further delay if interested.

Thanks for your Co-operation.

Mr.Jamie Dimon
Chief  Executive Officer CEO:
JP Morgan Chase Bank...Code (JP)
270 Park Avenue New York,NY,U.S
Response to me here(jp.morganchasebka1@gmail.com
 

sierra skier's picture

You are so lucky

All of the offers I receive are from Africa and therefore not reliable.wink

Bollocks's picture

That spike explained

(ps - right-click on the not-so-clear images and choose "view image" and click on it again to increase the size and see the detail)

-----------------

The Memorial Day Gold Massacre - When HFTs Forget The World's On Vacation

As the rest of America began to relax last Monday with a patriotic beer in their hand and a never-forget-hotdog stuffed in their mouth, the machines that run the gold manipulation market appeared to forget that the world was on vacation. The WFT moment that we described here, appears - thanks to Nanex detailed analysis - to have been the actions of yet another rogue HFT algorithm roller-coastering through an after-hours order book in gold futures. Un-rigged?

HFT Roller Coaster Algo Runs in After Hours Gold

1. June 2014 Gold (GC) Futures Top and Depth of Book. 
The cumulative size of orders in explodes from a normal 250 to over 2,500 contracts and most of this size is at the top of book (best bid/ask).

20140526.GC.M14.tob.png20140526.GC.M14.depth.png

2. June 2014 Gold (GC) Futures quote spread.
Note the wild price oscillation between $1275 and $1320.

20140526_11.33.30.000_10000ms_fGC.M14.0.

3. June 2014 Gold (GC) Futures trades.
Trading stops at 13:00

20140526_11.33.30.000_10000ms_fGC.M14.1.

4. June 2014 Gold (GC) Futures quote spread - Zoom 1 of Chart 2.

20140526_12.51.45.000_1000ms_fGC.M14.0.g

5. June 2014 Gold (GC) Futures quote spread.  Zoom 2 of Chart 2.

20140526_12.58.54.000_1000ms_fGC.M14.0.g

6. June 2014 Gold (GC) Futures Depth of Book.

20140526.GC.M14.0.gif

7. June 2014 Gold (GC) Futures Depth of Book.

20140526.GC.M14.1.gif

8. June 2014 Gold (GC) Futures Depth of Book.

20140526.GC.M14.2.gif

So while the world shrugged it off as yet another fat finger, it was real orders, not shitty data - from an HFT algo gone wild... welcome to the new unrigged markets...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-01/memorial-day-gold-massacre-when-hfts-forget-worlds-vacation

Bollocks's picture

Dagney

Gold will be $1400 by Friday and $1750 by August.

What on earth makes you say that? Or is it one of your jokes?

Ojibwemowin's picture

dinner with those in the know

I had dinner with my father and his investment guru this past week.  The topic of PMs was brushed off as somewhat of a joke, as in "your joking right?" I said "no I am not joking, I like tangible assets, not derivatives of anything." They are starting to look at investments in derivatives of water, as well as companies in alternative energy.  In the  meantime, by father in law, the one who told me to buy gold at under $300, still does not give a rat's ass about the market and just buys more. Interesting juxtaposition between two worlds continues for many of us, I am sure. 

Verus nemo's picture

New (short) YouTube video out from "belangp"

Our friend, "Paul," has a new video out that helps to put this metals market into proper context:

Pining 4 the Fjords's picture

Gold from Argentus

You, sir, are a great credit to this site.  Thank you for sharing your skills, charts, and your approach with us (and you are an outstanding teacher, too- I am still mulling over the implications of your last post about all the naturally occurring cycles and the apparent self organization of many naturally occurring phenomena...  Astounding stuff).

I know many Turdites would agree with me when I say that we are tremendously appreciative of your work here- thank you!

Verus nemo's picture

I've been wondering how long it'd be before we saw this

proposed but I never imagined Volcker would be its spokesperson:

Paul Volcker Proposes A New Bretton Woods System To Prevent "Frequent, Destructive" Financial Crises

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/01/2014 - 19:32

We found it surprising that it was none other than Paul Volcker himself who, on May 21 at the annual meeting of the Bretton Woods Committee, said that "by now I think we can agree that the absence of an official, rules-based cooperatively managed, monetary system has not been a great success. In fact,

pbreed's picture

Dagney need more info...

Dagney,

You failed to indicate which Friday and which August.... 

I'm hoping you meant next Friday  and Aug 2014...

Marchas45's picture

I Hope Your

Algorithms and charts are wrong AM seeing that I'm a positive Stacker and so Positive that any spare Fiat that I have is turned into PM's right away before my Fiat loses any more value before I can trade it. Keep Stacking.

DayStar's picture

Harvey's Up! (TFMR)

Harvey's Up! http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/409078#comment-409078

  • Lawrence Williams: In opening last week’s precious metals forum in London, Bloomberg Industries Global Head of Metals and Mining, Ken Hoffman, kicked off with some of the latest stats which showed that China and India between them are consuming more gold than the world is actually mining. The Bloomberg figures suggested that China was consuming gold at a rate of 5.15 million ounces a month and India - even at a reduced rate through import restrictions - 2.85 million ounces a month, making a total of 8 million ounces a month. And these figures may even understate the case given the Bloomberg figures for China are based on gold imports through Hong Kong and China’s own production, whereas gold is also imported through other points of entry. Meanwhile Bloomberg calculates global new mined gold output at some 7.44 million ounces a month making for a deficit of 0.56 million ounces a month.
  • Silver Doctors: Eric believes Friday’s strong access market trading is a sign that the bottom is in, and that the metals will NOT be placing a new low next week. Retail investment demand EXPLODED in both metals, but particularly in silver Friday, as SDBullion saw its largest single day sales volume in history, as well as the most transactions in a single day since the May 1st massacre last year that saw nearly $3 shaved off the spot price of silver.   With investment silver demand already at all-time record highs in the official mint coins- look for premiums to begin rising next week if silver remains under $19 and massive physical demand continues.  The silver market hasn’t experienced a real shortage situation in nearly a year, but that could quickly change if the type of demand seen Friday continues into next week. Don’t you just love Comex options expiration week?  Sheesh.  This time, the mainstream media was blaming gold and silver’s decline on the back of the release of April Hong Kong gold import data.  Imports came in at a very high 65 metric tons, but that was below April 2013 imports of 76 metric tons.  With that news as backdrop, the timing for a raid against weak hand Comex longs couldn’t be better and the “wash, rinse and repeat” cycle played out once again.  The Hong Kong imports decline story is overblown.  Monthly imports were at some of their highest levels in history earlier this year and 65 metric tons for last April is a gigantic import figure compared to the rates we saw two years ago and further back in time.  Furthermore, given Chinese wholesale gold demand indications visible by looking at recent withdrawals out of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, we can safely infer that all the fuss about April is nothing but noise.  When May’s figures are reported they will likely show a rebound. 
  • Harvey:  Today again for the 9th straight day, our bankers  decided it was necessary to whack gold/silver. On Tuesday, we had options expiry for us mortals.  However the OTC gold/silver options (for hedgies and banks and big institutional investors) do not expire until this afternoon.  This is why our bankers will continue to whack gold and silver on the final week of every month until they are put in a grave 6 feet deep. Silver succumbed to today's attack as it finished down by 36 cents.  The low for the day was $18.61. As soon as the OTC options were expired, the gold and silver rebounded in the access market as did the gold/silver equity shares.  This is becoming one complete farce. 
  • Zero Hedge: It would seem this week's technical breaks in the precious metals was the perfect testing ground for junior Barclays traders to wet their whistle with "sudden bursts of sell orders." Gold - once again - has seen a sudden heavy volume purge in futures ($1.7 billion notional worth in 5 minutes) that has pressed spot prices back under $1,250 and heading towards its worst week in 8 months.
  • Harvey: GLD saw no change again in its inventory, and stands at 785.28 tonnes after Tuesday's huge gain. SLV saw no change in silver inventory and stands at 10,284.40 tonnes.  Late in the day, China reported a huge increase in gold demand to the tune of 36.4 tonnes of gold this week.  On a 7 day week, China imported at least 5.2 tonnes per day at the same time the globe ex China ex Russia only produces 6.02 tonnes per day. Japan, after yesterday reporting a huge drop in retail sales (much larger than expected even with the huge sales tax included in the data), today reported a huge drop in household spending, a big drop in industrial production, and the biggest scare of them all, a huge increase in inflation to the tune of 3.4% with no corresponding wage inflation.  Their economy is imploding! The Chinese housing sector is also imploding as illustrated by a big developer advertising that if you buy one floor, you will get the second one free. In the USA, we received two confidence numbers, the University of Michigan index and the Bloomberg Comfort index and both turned down indicating the consumer has a lack of confidence in the economy.  The consumer is 70% of USA GDP. Also the USA announced that consumer spending dropped big time last month, which will no doubt cause many to scale back estimated figures on 2nd quarter GDP.  All  GOFO rates are positive and increasing.
  • Mark O'Byrne: Gold suffered its fourth straight losing session yesterday leading to a 4% fall for the week. The move lower this week would appear to be technically driven, as there was no negative headline data, obvious reasons for price falls, or indeed evidence of physical gold selling. Indeed, the mood music for gold is quite positive - especially the worsening situation in Ukraine and attendant geopolitical risk. One plausible factor for gold’s weakness is the ever increasing, “irrationally exuberant” appetite for risk globally which may be impacting gold. Yesterday, the poor U.S. GDP number, which was much worse than analysts had forecast, did not lead to the bounce in gold that one would have expected. Nor did it lead to weakness in permanently levitating stock markets which continued on their merry way higher. 
  • Dave Kranzler: In week 21 (May 19 – 23) Chinese wholesale gold demand, measured by SGE withdrawals, was 36.4 metric tonnes, up 22.98 % from the week before. This is the highest weekly demand since week 9 (February 24 -28). 
  • Koos Jansen: The Chinese silver market is not constructed as the gold market, hence information on silver withdrawals from a silver exchange wouldn’t inform us about Chinese total silver demand. However, in week 21, we can see that the premium of spot silver on the SGE was still trading at more than 5% above the international price, measured by the Ag(T+D) contract. 
  • Adan Salazar (InfoWars.com): The Washington Times disclosed a disturbing Department of Defense directive detailing which instances may be appropriate for the government to use lethal military force on dissenting civilians.  “Federal military commanders are provided EMERGENCY AUTHORITY under this Directive. Federal military forces shall not be used to quell civil disturbances unless specifically authorized by the President in accordance with applicable law.. In these circumstances, those Federal military commanders have the authority, in extraordinary emergency circumstances where prior authorization by the President is impossible and duly constituted local authorities are unable to control the situation to engage temporarily in activities that are necessary to quell large-scale, unexpected civil disturbances.” Not surprisingly, the DoD order does little to quell the fears of Americans worried over various governmental agencies arming to the teeth, as well as those concerned with increasingly hostile rhetoric geared to demonize Tea Party supporters, liberty lovers, Christians, returning military veterans and law abiding gun owners.

All this and more...on the Harvey Report!! sadwinklaugh

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/409078#comment-409078

DayStar

GuerrillaCapitalist's picture

That's Comforting News

Neighbors:

I used to be good at technical analysis and beat the market far more often than it beat me. However, after the depression started I've given up all paper dreams and focused on tangibles, being a good steward of the family farm and being of use to my communities, both physical and virtual.

I'd like the current system to keep going as long as possible for the simple reason that I've seen first hand the effects of economic calamity in several nations. Viet Nam, Cambodia and Laos were the first and a few more that are still classified operations. 

It's only a matter of time before economic collapse takes over the United States, Europe, Japan and god only knows who else. The used oats have been launched and the fan blades are spinning. Contact is imminent. 

Bongo Jim's picture

@GC

Sounds like it's about time to send lawyers , guns and money.

Safety Dan's picture

@ Markedtofuture Great Video Of US Situation & Options

This video is a great tool to understand the problem from Ben's eyes and why he left. See this link for represented curve on UST Daily Treasury Yield Curve and this on several years  Net Purchases of Long-Term Domestic Securities by Foreigners, Selected Countries. Note the below. 

Stephanie Pomboy Wine Country Conference 2014 "Confessions of Ben Bernanke”

Please note the following:

10:05 Graph of corporate profits as % of GDP & consumer domestic spending – note gap largest in recent history

15:40 Graph of Foreign purchase of US Treasuries 12 month sum. Who’s making up the difference?

17:00 Chinese Yuan 6th most traded currency in world. Rising star

17:15 No natural buyer

17:30 Options of Fed’s choices

19:45 Fed staffer in audience asks question on math of Foreign US Treasury buying graph.

21:45 Graph of Fed Balance sheet vs Gold price. Until day of QE3 Gold traded inversely to Fed balance.  Due to Fed choices correlation will be restored.

23:30 Belgium’s strange purchases of Fed Treasury. Purchase is 100% of Belgium’s GDP added by me.

Green Lantern's picture

see peeps.  I told you there

see peeps.  I told you there was light at the end of the tunnel.  Even if the tunnel smells like a sewer. 

So what do you folks want to talk about until 2015?  

Occasnltrvlr's picture

Too Funny Not To Share

This is from a legitimate, advertising email I received:  "5 Tourism Cities of the Future"

  • Port-au-Prince, Haiti
  • Havana, Cuba
  • Cairo, Egypt
  • Damascus, Syria
  • Detroit, Michigan

(I don't know how they slipped Havana in the list, in place of Tripoli.)

http://blog.shermanstravel.com/2014/05/22/5-tourism-cities-of-the-future/

California Lawyer's picture

Kings Win!

Not really a hockey fan, but for game 7, sure, I'll watch and cheer.

Anyhow, bummer for those Chicago fans.

So, we have hockey finals, and of course the NBA finals, and there is some soccer going on somewhere.

Would this not be the perfect time for a new currency announcement?  Or perhaps Obummer suddenly resigns?  Clearly, he is being loathed by everyone, even the NY Times.  Something has to give . . .

Dagney Taggart's picture

Since it was asked....

I was somewhat joking, Bollocks, and pbreed is right. I deliberately didn't say next Friday or August 2014.

Am I mistaken or did the US Mint just remove order limits for eagles? Wouldn't it be nice to see $40 by August, then 27 for the right shoulder next January?

BagOfGold's picture

What do you folks want to talk about until 2015?...

I'm quite sure Argentus Maximus...has a lot more interesting things to talk about...than my homemade tarts?...

greenargentustunnel

smileycheekysmiley

Bag Of Gold

ata's picture

or my travel photos

Architects can't always think about everything

Safety Dan's picture

What Can Go Right?

I've seen questions about selling PM's and/or investing in Equities in several threads. How many times have we heard; don't fight the fed?, is it different this time, or what can go right? You will have a clear answer from John Hussman, Meban Faber and Stephanie Pomboy as published on May 30th, 2014. Listen to this interview starting at 15 minutes. Hint, the fed is sitting on cash too.

ata's picture

The sleeper carriage

A man and a woman who had never met before, but who were both married (to other partners) found themselves assigned to the same sleeping room on a trans-continental train .

Though initially embarrassed and uneasy over sharing a room, they were both very tired and fell asleep quickly, he in the upper berth and she in the lower.

At 1:00 AM, the man leaned down and gently woke the woman saying, ..........

'Ma'am, I'm sorry to bother you, but would you be willing to reach into the closet to get me a second blanket? I'm awfully cold.'

'I have a better idea,' she replied 'Just for tonight, ...... let's pretend that we're married.'

'Wow! ...................... That's a great idea!', he exclaimed.

'Good,' she replied. ............. 'Get your own blanket.'

ata's picture

Who caused the plane crash on the Hudson River?

Militant geese

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